Optimal test length for multiple prediction: The general case

The concepts of differential prediction and multiple absolute prediction were developed in earlier papers [2, 3]. Methods for determining optimal distribution of testing time for each type of prediction are available [4, 5] and are appropriate for use provided that no altered time allotment approaches zero. In this article the methods developed in [4, 5] are extended to include cases where the altered time allotment for one or more tests may approach zero. The procedures developed are illustrated by numerical examples, after which the mathematical rationales are provided.     

Combining two separate series into a single ordering: Testing the local and global distinctiveness theories with absolute and relative judgments

This study examined the differential effects of an absolute versus a relative judgment task on the retrieval of the border-position items after the combining of two separate serial lists. Under the absolute judgment condition (Experiment 1), the border-position items showed a local distinctiveness effect (faster judgment on these items than on the neighboring items), consistent with the prediction of the local distinctiveness theory of order memory, but not under the relative judgment condition (Experiment 2). The absence of the local distinctiveness effect under the relative judgment condition was consistent with the prediction of the global distinctiveness theory that a midseries item cannot be remembered better than its neighbors. The causes of the differential effects of the two judgment tasks were discussed.     

Writing program with word prediction for a young man with multiple disabilities: a preliminary assessment

This study assessed a writing program with word prediction, which completed the writing of a word and spoke it out only when there was certainty that such a word was the correct one. The assessment was carried out with a young man with multiple disabilities, who typically used a word-processing program without word prediction. The two programs were compared on the time required by the participant for writing general sentences, through a social validation assessment, and eventually a check on the participant's preference. Analysis showed the program with word prediction was significantly more effective in terms of the writing time, which was halved, and was deemed preferable by 40 raters (psychology students) involved in the social validation assessment and by the participant himself. Implications of the findings are discussed.     

Optimal test length for maximum differential prediction

For the case of a single criterion a method is already available for determining the optimal distribution of testing time for a battery of predictors, assuming that intercorrelation, validity, and reliability data are available for predictors of arbitrary lengths. In this article a modification and generalization of the method is presented for the case of differential prediction involving a number of criterion variables. A numerical example is given to illustrate the method, after which the mathematical rationale is outlined.This research was carried out under Contract Nonr-477(08) between the University of Washington and the Office of Naval Research. Most of the computations were carried out by Robert Dear, Charlotte MacEwan, and Donald Mills. Much credit is due the typist, Elizabeth Cross. Supervision of both computational and editorial activities was provided by William Clemans. To each of these able contributors I am deeply grateful.     

Electrodermal conditioning to stimuli of evolutionary significance: Failure to replicate the preparedness effect

In the present study, an attempt was made to replicate the preparedness effect reported by Öhman, Fredrickson, Hugdahl, & Rimmö (1976). Following Öhman et al. (1976) as closely as possible, a differential conditioning procedure was carried out in which subjects'skin conductance responses (SCRs) were conditioned either to stimuli of evolutionary significance (slides of snakes and spiders) or to evolutionally neutral stimuli (slides of mushrooms and flowers). The experiment consisted of 8 habituation, 12 acquisition, and 20 extinction trials. Electric shock served as an unconditioned stimulus during the acquisition phase. Although SCRs showed significant decreases during habituation and were significantly influenced by the conditioning procedure during acquisition, they were not found to extinguish significantly more slowly in the group that saw slides of snakes and spiders. This result contradicts the earlier results reported by Öman and colleagues. Possible explanations for this failure to replicate their results are discussed.     

Multiple schedule component duration: a reanalysis of Shimp and Wheatley (1971) and Todorov (1972)

The tendency for relative response rate to approach matching as multiple schedule component duration decreases has been interpreted as confirming a prediction of Herrnstein's multiple schedule equation. However, the equation predicts that absolute response rate will decrease in both multiple schedule components as component duration decreases. The absolute response-rate data of two studies of component duration do not support this prediction; absolute rate either increased or remained relatively constant.     

Some applications of attribute prediction theory to psychophysics

The following development is a coordination of certain aspects of mental test methods and psychophysics. The biserial and triserial prediction equations of the Katzell-Cureton theory are utilized to reformulate the determination of absolute and differential limens from data produced by the constant method.     

TESTING FOR FAIRNESS WITH A MODERATED MULTIPLE REGRESSION STRATEGY: AN ALTERNATIVE TO DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS1

It is argued that analyses of subgroup differences utilizing a bivariate correlation strategy do not provide an adequate examination of test fairness. An analysis of differential prediction, which involves slopes and intercepts of regression lines results in more complete coverage of the test fairness issue, since the overall regression line determines the way in which a test is used for prediction. While subgroup correlation coefficients yield information concerning the slopes and intercepts, means and standard deviations must also be examined. A moderated multiple regression strategy is recommended as an alternative to separate analyses by subgroups. An ordered step-up regression procedure is presented which is more encompassing than the bivariate strategies, while avoiding inherent problems associated with subgroup coding in multiple regression.     

Mind-reading accuracy in intimate relationships: assessing the roles of the relationship, the target, and the judge

Using a video-review procedure, multiple perceivers carried out mind-reading tasks of multiple targets at different levels of acquaintanceship (50 dating couples, friends of the dating partners, and strangers). As predicted, the authors found that mind-reading accuracy was (a). higher as a function of increased acquaintanceship, (b). relatively unaffected by target effects, (c). influenced by individual differences in perceivers' ability, and (d). higher for female than male perceivers. In addition, superior mind-reading accuracy (for dating couples and friends) was related to higher relationship satisfaction, closeness, and more prior disclosure about the problems discussed, but only under moderating conditions related to sex and relationship length. The authors conclude that the nature of the relationship between the perceiver and the target occupies a pivotal role in determining mind-reading accuracy.     

PESTI: A procedure for estimating individual thresholds in infant listeners

An adaptive procedure for rapid estimation of adult thresholds (PEST: Parameter Estimation by Sequential Testing; Taylor & Creelman, 1967) was modified and applied to the estimation of auditory thresholds in 6-month-old infants (PESTI). This procedure yielded similar absolute thresholds to those obtained in previous research with the method of constant stimuli. Advantages of the present procedure are outlined.     

差距知觉的泛化效应：我和你之间的差距有多大?

当知晓自己和他人的表现,即自己与他人在某方面表现上的差距已经明确时,人们对自我-他人差异的知觉准确吗?本研究发现了差距知觉的泛化效应：人们将自身的绝对表现(自己的表现与零相比的结果)泛化到对自身相对表现(自己与他人相比的结果)的判断上。在7个研究中, 被试(N = 2766)得知自己的绝对表现和相对于他人的表现,并判断自己与他人之间的差距。结果显示,绝对获益时,人们在相对获益时感知到的自我-他人差距大于相对损失时;绝对损失时,人们在相对获益时感知到的自我-他人差距小于相对损失时;当泛化难以进行时,上述效应消失。研究揭示了差距知觉的泛化效应及其联结机制。     

Relational and absolute cues in auditory discrimination by monkeys

Rhesus monkeys were trained to make auditory frequency, intensity, and duration discriminations. Initial training was carried out with a procedure which allowed the utilization of either relational cues or absolute cues. Later tests with similar auditory parameters allowed only the utilization of relational cues. Performance on these latter tests indicated that relational rather than absolute cues had been utilized when both types were available on the frequency and intensity discrimination tasks. However, absolute rather than relational cues were apparently utilized in making duration discriminations.     

The control response in assessing resurgence: Useful or compromised tool?

Resurgence experiments sometimes include an operandum on which a history of reinforcement has not been experimentally established. The purpose of this control operandum is to rule out a generalized increase in responding when the alternative response is extinguished as being the cause of the resurgent target response. A review of the results of experiments conducted with both nonhumans and humans in which a control operandum was included shows that control- operandum responding is more common in the latter and almost nonexistent in the former. Both the presence and absence of responding on the control operandum, however, are subject to multiple interpretations thereby rendering it a compromised tool. Alternatives to using a control operandum to rule out extinction induction as the basis for resurgence include a preresurgence test control procedure and a differential resurgence procedure.     

Alternative response training, differential reinforcement of other behavior, and extinction in squirrel monkeys (Saimiri sciureus)

In Experiment I, (a) extinction, (b) extinction plus reinforcement of a discrete alternative response, and (c) differential reinforcement of other behavior were each correlated with a different stimulus in a three-component multiple schedule. The alternative-response procedure more rapidly and completely suppressed behavior than did differential reinforcement of other behavior. Differential reinforcement of other behavior was slightly more effective than extinction alone. In Experiment II, reinforcement of specific alternative behavior during extinction and differential reinforcement of other behavior were used in two components, while one component continued to provide reinforcement for the original response. Once again, the alternative-response procedure was most effective in reducing responding as long as it remained in effect. However, the responding partially recovered when reinforcement for competing behavior was discontinued. In general, responding was less readily reduced by differential reinforcement of other behavior than by the specific alternative-response procedure.     

Frequency of reinforcement as a parameter of conditioned suppression

Two pigeons were trained on a multiple VI-1; VI-4 min schedule for food reinforcement until a stable differential rate of response was established. Each component of the multiple schedule was in effect for 10 min and was separated from the other by 1 min time out. An Estes-Skinner conditioned suppression procedure was superimposed on each component of the schedule. The relative magnitude of the suppression behavior was measured during its acquisition and extinction, and at CS durations of 100, 200, and 300 sec. The initial magnitude of the suppression behavior was less severe on the VI-1 baseline than on the VI-4, and it extinguished more rapidly on the VI-1. As the relative duration of the CS was increased, the suppression behavior became less severe on both baselines, but the initial differential magnitude in the suppression remained intact.     

Reasoning about complex probabilistic concepts in childhood

The competencies of children, particularly their understanding of the more complex probabilistic concepts, have not been thoroughly investigated. In the present study participants were required to choose the more likely of two events, a single event, and a joint event (conjunctive or disjunctive). It was predicted that the operation of the representativeness heuristic would result in erroneous judgements when children compared an unlikely component event with a likely-unlikely conjunction (the conjunction fallacy) and when a likely component event was compared to a likely-unlikely disjunction. The results supported the first prediction with both older children aged between 9 and 10 years and younger children aged between 4 and 5 committing the conjunction fallacy. However, the second prediction was not confirmed. It is proposed that the basis of representativeness judgements may differ between the conjunctive and disjunctive cases with absolute frequency information possibly playing a differential role.     

Differential prediction and the use of multiple predictors: the omitted variables problem

Moderated regression is widely used to examine differential prediction by race or gender. When using multiple predictors in a selection system, guidance as to whether differential prediction analysis should be conducted on each predictor individually, or on the set of predictors in combination, is lacking. Analyzing predictors individually creates the possibility of an omitted variable problem. Army Project A data were used to examine differential prediction by race with the use of personality measures for 79 predictor-criterion combinations. Traditional analysis indicated predictive bias by intercept in 45 instances and by slope in 7 instances; the inclusion of an Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery general factor as an additional predictor changed the conclusion in 32 cases for the intercept and in 3 cases for the slope.     

An evaluation of differential prediction of WIAT achievement scores from WISC-III FSIQ across ethnic and gender groups

This study examines differential prediction of WIAT achievement scores based on WISC-III FSIQ in white as compared with African American and Hispanic children, and in females as compared with males. A procedure which allows simultaneous comparisons of slopes and intercepts across groups is employed. The results are consistent with previous research findings in supporting the general absence of bias in predicting achievement from IQ.     

Implementing a differential reinforcement of low rates schedule to alter vocal stereotypy and task engagement in two adolescents with autism spectrum disorder

Vocal stereotypy (VS) is often observed in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) which at high rates can interfere with socialization or functioning in structured settings. There are multiple effective interventions available; yet, many procedures target the complete omission of the behavior or are only assessed at short intervals, making it unclear how they will generalize in applied settings. One intervention yet to be assessed as an individual intervention for automatically reinforced VS is differential reinforcement of low rates of behavior (DRL). In the present study, a functional analysis determined that the VS of two female adolescents with ASD was maintained by automatic reinforcement. A DRL procedure was implemented which incorporated: (a) a specified interval for reinforcement; (b) the behavioral expectations; (c) the permissible instances of VS within the interval; (d) learner feedback; and (e) the reset/non-reset aspect of the schedule. As the targeted behavior decreased across sessions, the DRL interval was systematically increased in order to thin out the schedule of reinforcement. The intervention reduced VS and increased untargeted task engagement for both participants. Applied and theoretical implications of the study as well as social validity, limitations, and future research are discussed.     

Auditory discrimination: a three-variable analysis of intensity effects

The acquisition of auditory intensity discriminations in rats trained on multiple variable-interval extinction schedules was studied as a function of some of the variables that contribute to the speed of development of differential responding and the final level attained. The effects of three variables were isolated and studied in detail: (1) the decibel difference between the discriminative stimuli (intensity difference); (2) the intensity relationship between the stimuli (relative intensity); and (3) the position of the stimuli on the intensity continuum (absolute intensity). Each of the three variables generated orderly relationships and interacted with one another to produce complex effects upon differential responding.