The uses of Aristotle's Rhetoric in contemporary American scholarship

In contemporary American scholarship, interpretation of Aristotle'sRhetoric has become the locus of sustained and sharp controversy. Differing views of theRhetoric and its significance have become tokens in a more general dispute about what rhetoric is or ought to be. This essay examines three central issues that have emerged in this larger arena of controversy: the relationship between Aristotelian and Platonic conceptions of rhetoric, the relationships among rhetoric, ethics, and epistemology in Aristotle, and the placement of rhetoric within Aristotle's system of arts and sciences.     

Ethos,pathos and logos in Aristotle's Rhetoric: A re-examination

In Aristotle's Rhetoric, logos must be conceived as enthymematical argumentation relative to the issue of the case. Ethos and pathos also can take the form of an enthymeme, but this argumentation doesn't relate (directly) to the issue. In this kind of enthymeme, the conclusion is relative to the ethos of the speaker or (reasons for) the pathos of the audience. In an ideal situation — with a good procedure and rational judges — logos dominates and in the real situation of Aristotle's time — with an imperfect procedure and irrational judges — ethos and pathos prevail.I should like to thank R. Berkenbosch and J. Wisse for their comments.     

Statistical inference based on ranks

This paper develops a unified approach, based on ranks, to the statistical analysis of data arising from complex experimental designs. In this way we answer a major objection to the use of rank procedures as a major methodology in data analysis. We show that the rank procedures, including testing, estimation and multiple comparisons, are generated in a natural way from a robust measure of scale. The rank methods closely parallel the familiar methods of least squares, so that estimates and tests have natural interpretations.This research was supported in part by grant MCS76-07292 from the National Science Foundation.     

Statistical inference in personality research

Statistical significance, by itself, is not a sufficient condition for claiming that a hypothesis has been supported. Constructive replications are considerably more important. Unfortunately, classical (Fisherian) statistics are not easily adapted to sequential research strategies; their focus is the single experiment. For this reason, statistically significant results may be meaningless while a particular sequence of nonsignificant results may be quite important. Advice on how to overcome some limitations of classical statistical procedures is given, along with a compendium of “do's and don't's.”     

Statistical inference for multiple choice tests

Finite sample inference procedures are considered for analyzing the observed scores on a multiple choice test with several items, where, for example, the items are dissimilar, or the item responses are correlated. A discrete p-parameter exponential family model leads to a generalized linear model framework and, in a special case, a convenient regression of true score upon observed score. Techniques based upon the likelihood function, Akaike's information criteria (AIC), an approximate Bayesian marginalization procedure based on conditional maximization (BCM), and simulations for exact posterior densities (importance sampling) are used to facilitate finite sample investigations of the average true score, individual true scores, and various probabilities of interest. A simulation study suggests that, when the examinees come from two different populations, the exponential family can adequately generalize Duncan's beta-binomial model. Extensions to regression models, the classical test theory model, and empirical Bayes estimation problems are mentioned. The Duncan, Keats, and Matsumura data sets are used to illustrate potential advantages and flexibility of the exponential family model, and the BCM technique.The authors wish to thank Ella Mae Matsumura for her data set and helpful comments, Frank Baker for his advice on item response theory, Hirotugu Akaike and Taskin Atilgan, for helpful discussions regarding AIC, Graham Wood for his advice concerning the class of all binomial mixture models, Yiu Ming Chiu for providing useful references and information on tetrachoric models, and the Editor and two referees for suggesting several references and alternative approaches.     

Statistical inference based on latent ability estimates

The quality of approximations to first and second order moments (e.g., statistics like means, variances, regression coefficients) based on latent ability estimates is being discussed. The ability estimates are obtained using either the Rasch, or the two-parameter logistic model. Straightforward use of such statistics to make inferences with respect to true latent ability is not recommended, unless we account for the fact that the basic quantities are estimates. In this paper true score theory is used to account for the latter; the counterpart of observed/true score being estimated/true latent ability. It is shown that statistics based on the true score theory are virtually unbiased if the number of items presented to each examinee is larger than fifteen. Three types of estimators are compared: maximum likelihood, weighted maximum likelihood, and Bayes modal. Furthermore, the (dis)advantages of the true score method and direct modeling of latent ability is discussed.     

Statistical inference of minimum rank factor analysis

For any given number of factors, Minimum Rank Factor Analysis yields optimal communalities for an observed covariance matrix in the sense that the unexplained common variance with that number of factors is minimized, subject to the constraint that both the diagonal matrix of unique variances and the observed covariance matrix minus that diagonal matrix are positive semidefinite. As a result, it becomes possible to distinguish the explained common variance from the total common variance. The percentage of explained common variance is similar in meaning to the percentage of explained observed variance in Principal Component Analysis, but typically the former is much closer to 100 than the latter. So far, no statistical theory of MRFA has been developed. The present paper is a first start. It yields closed-form expressions for the asymptotic bias of the explained common variance, or, more precisely, of the unexplained common variance, under the assumption of multivariate normality. Also, the asymptotic variance of this bias is derived, and also the asymptotic covariance matrix of the unique variances that define a MRFA solution. The presented asymptotic statistical inference is based on a recently developed perturbation theory of semidefinite programming. A numerical example is also offered to demonstrate the accuracy of the expressions.This work was supported, in part, by grant DMS-0073770 from the National Science Foundation.     

Statistical inference and spatial patterns in correlates of IQ

Cross-national comparisons of IQ have become common since the release of a large dataset of international IQ scores. However, these studies have consistently failed to consider the potential lack of independence of these scores based on spatial proximity. To demonstrate the importance of this omission, we present a re-evaluation of several hypotheses put forward to explain variation in mean IQ among nations namely: (i) distance from central Africa, (ii) temperature, (iii) parasites, (iv) nutrition, (v) education, and (vi) GDP. We quantify the strength of spatial autocorrelation (SAC) in the predictors, response variables and the residuals of multiple regression models explaining national mean IQ. We outline a procedure for the control of SAC in such analyses and highlight the differences in the results before and after control for SAC. We find that incorporating additional terms to control for spatial interdependence increases the fit of models with no loss of parsimony. Support is provided for the finding that a national index of parasite burden and national IQ are strongly linked and temperature also features strongly in the models. However, we tentatively recommend a physiological - via impacts on host-parasite interactions - rather than evolutionary explanation for the effect of temperature. We present this study primarily to highlight the danger of ignoring autocorrelation in spatially extended data, and outline an appropriate approach should a spatially explicit analysis be considered necessary.     

Statistical inference in behavior analysis: Useful friend

Single-subject and statistical inference are virtually identical. With both techniques change is inferred when variability across conditions is sufficiently large to accommodate variability within conditions, replication is the final arbiter of whether change is likely to occur by chance, a large effect size is preferred to a small consistent difference, there are similar threats to internal validity, and generalizability of results is valued. Knowing how to use statistical inferential procedures would make behavior analysts more methodologically sophisticated. It would also help them to critically evaluate research in other areas of psychology, obtain research grants, and publish their research in diverse outlets, which would help others to see behavior-analytic work.     

Statistical inference: learning in artificial neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are widely used to model low-level neural activities and high-level cognitive functions. In this article, we review the applications of statistical inference for learning in ANNs. Statistical inference provides an objective way to derive learning algorithms both for training and for evaluation of the performance of trained ANNs. Solutions to the over-fitting problem by model-selection methods, based on either conventional statistical approaches or on a Bayesian approach, are discussed. The use of supervised and unsupervised learning algorithms for ANNs are reviewed. Training a multilayer ANN by supervised learning is equivalent to nonlinear regression. The ensemble methods, bagging and arching, described here, can be applied to combine ANNs to form a new predictor with improved performance. Unsupervised learning algorithms that are derived either by the Hebbian law for bottom-up self-organization, or by global objective functions for top-down self-organization are also discussed.     

Statistical inference and sensitivity to sampling in 11-month-old infants

Research on initial conceptual knowledge and research on early statistical learning mechanisms have been, for the most part, two separate enterprises. We report a study with 11-month-old infants investigating whether they are sensitive to sampling conditions and whether they can integrate intentional information in a statistical inference task. Previous studies found that infants were able to make inferences from samples to populations, and vice versa [Xu, F., & Garcia, V. (2008). Intuitive statistics by 8-month-old infants. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 5012-5015]. We found that when employing this statistical inference mechanism, infants are sensitive to whether a sample was randomly drawn from a population or not, and they take into account intentional information (e.g., explicitly expressed preference, visual access) when computing the relationship between samples and populations. Our results suggest that domain-specific knowledge is integrated with statistical inference mechanisms early in development.     

Statistical inference in behavior analysis: Experimental control is better

Statistical inference promises automatic, objective, reliable assessments of data, independent of the skills or biases of the investigator, whereas the single-subject methods favored by behavior analysts often are said to rely too much on the investigator's subjective impressions, particularly in the visual analysis of data. In fact, conventional statistical methods are difficult to apply correctly, even by experts, and the underlying logic of null-hypothesis testing has drawn criticism since its inception. By comparison, single-subject methods foster direct, continuous interaction between investigator and subject and development of strong forms of experimental control that obviate the need for statistical inference. Treatment effects are demonstrated in experimental designs that incorporate replication within and between subjects, and the visual analysis of data is adequate when integrated into such designs. Thus, single-subject methods are ideal for shaping-and maintaining-the kind of experimental practices that will ensure the continued success of behavior analysis.     

Statistical inference in generalized linear mixed models: A review

We present a review of statistical inference in generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). GLMMs are an extension of generalized linear models and are suitable for the analysis of non‐normal data with a clustered structure. A GLMM contains parameters common to all clusters (fixed regression effects and variance components) and cluster‐specific parameters. The latter parameters are assumed to be randomly drawn from a population distribution. The parameters of this population distribution (the variance components) have to be estimated together with the fixed effects. We focus on the case in which the cluster‐specific parameters are normally distributed. The cluster‐specific effects are integrated out of the likelihood so that the fixed effects and variance components can be estimated. Unfortunately, the integral over the cluster‐specific effects is intractable for most GLMMs with a normal mixing distribution. Within a classical statistical framework, we distinguish between two broad classes of methods to handle this intractable integral: methods that rely on a numerical approximation to the integral and methods that use an analytical approximation to the integrand. Finally, we present an overview of available methods for testing hypotheses about the parameters of GLMMs.     

Statistical inference for false positive and false negative error rates in mastery testing

This paper describes an asymptotic inferential procedure for the estimates of the false positive and false negative error rates. Formulas and tables are described for the computations of the standard errors. A simulation study indicates that the asymptotic standard errors may be used even with samples of 25 cases as long as the Kuder-Richardson Formula 21 reliability is reasonably large. Otherwise, a large sample would be required.This work was performed pursuant to Grant No NIE-G-78-0087 with the National Institute of Education, Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Huynh Huynh, Principal Investigator. Points of view or opinions stated do not necessarily reflect NIE position or policy and no official endorsement should be inferred. The editorial assistance of Joseph C. Saunders is gratefully acknowledged.