时间洞察力对跨期选择偏好的预测

利用津巴多时间洞察力问卷,采用跨期选择经典范式,考察“现在享乐型”和“未来定向型”两类时间洞察力个体在跨期选择上的偏好,从人格特质角度来探究跨期选择的认知机制。结果发现：(1)现在享乐定向组的延迟折扣率显著高于未来定向组;(2)未来定向组在时间洞察力量表“未来维度”得分与延迟折扣率显著负相关。这说明时间洞察力对个体延迟折扣率具有预测作用,支持了跨期选择的时间感知基础模型。     

动机冲突影响混合跨期决策：趋近-回避动机理论视角

组织与个人面临的许多决策, 既无纯粹获益, 也无纯粹损失, 往往需要同时对未来不同时间点的损益加以权衡, 这类损益兼具的决策称为混合跨期决策。过往研究通常沿用纯粹获益或损失跨期决策的理论框架, 缺乏与混合跨期决策相匹配的理论建构和决策过程探索。基于此, 本研究从趋近-回避动机理论出发, 探索动机冲突影响混合跨期决策的过程机制。研究1拟探讨混合跨期决策中动机冲突特点, 及其与决策行为之间的关系。研究2则计划分别操纵影响动机冲突程度的内源性因素(得失金额的相对差异程度)和外源性因素(资源有限程度), 试图揭示动机冲突程度与混合跨期决策之间的因果链条。研究3拟采用鼠标追踪技术, 基于决策过程指标进一步探索动机冲突影响混合跨期决策的过程机制。我们预期该研究结果有利于从动机冲突视角揭示并建构混合跨期决策的作用机制, 同时也将为涉及混合跨期情境的企业管理和个体消费决策提供科学依据。     

厌恶和恐惧情绪对跨期选择的不同影响：基于ERP的研究

本研究运用事件相关电位技术(ERPs)考察厌恶和恐惧情绪对跨期选择的影响。其中,厌恶和恐惧情绪采用情绪面孔图片进行启动,分析跨期选择任务中评估阶段所诱发的ERP成分。行为结果发现,与中性面孔相比,厌恶面孔启动使个体倾向于选择立即奖赏。ERP结果发现,在选项评估阶段,厌恶面孔比中性和恐惧面孔启动诱发更大的P2、P3和LPP波幅。这说明,厌恶情绪促使个体投入更多的注意和动机资源对跨期选项进行评估,进而使个体倾向即时满足。     

厌恶和恐惧情绪对跨期选择的不同影响：基于ERP的研究

本研究运用事件相关电位技术(ERPs)考察厌恶和恐惧情绪对跨期选择的影响。其中,厌恶和恐惧情绪采用情绪面孔图片进行启动,分析跨期选择任务中评估阶段所诱发的ERP成分。行为结果发现,与中性面孔相比,厌恶面孔启动使个体倾向于选择立即奖赏。ERP结果发现,在选项评估阶段,厌恶面孔比中性和恐惧面孔启动诱发更大的P2、P3和LPP波幅。这说明,厌恶情绪促使个体投入更多的注意和动机资源对跨期选项进行评估,进而使个体倾向即时满足。     

Good or Bad,We Want it Now: Fixed‐cost Present Bias for Gains and Losses Explains Magnitude Asymmetries in Intertemporal Choice

Intertemporal tradeoffs are ubiquitous in decision making, yet preferences for current versus future losses are rarely explored in empirical research. Whereas rational‐economic theory posits that neither outcome sign (gains vs. losses) nor outcome magnitude (small vs. large) should affect delay discount rates, both do, and moreover, they interact: in three studies, we show that whereas large gains are discounted less than small gains, large losses are discounted more than small losses. This interaction can be understood through a reconceptualization of fixed‐cost present bias, which has traditionally described a psychological preference for immediate rewards. First, our results establish present bias for losses—a psychological preference to have losses over with now. Present bias thus predicts increased discounting of future gains but decreased (or even negative) discounting of future losses. Second, because present bias preferences do not scale with the magnitude of possible gains or losses, they play a larger role, relative to other motivations for discounting, for small magnitude intertemporal decisions than for large magnitude intertemporal decisions. Present bias thus predicts less discounting of large gains than small gains but more discounting of large losses than small losses. The present research is the first to demonstrate that the effect of outcome magnitude on discount rates may be opposite for gains and losses and also the first to offer a theory (an extension of present bias) and process data to explain this interaction. The results suggest that policy efforts to encourage future‐oriented choices should frame outcomes as large gains or small losses. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are intertemporal preferences contagious? Evidence from collaborative decision making

Prior research has provided substantial insight into individuals’ intertemporal preferences (i.e., preferences about delayed rewards). In the present study, we instead investigated the preferences of small groups of individuals asked to express collective intertemporal decisions. The paradigm consisted of three phases. During the precollaboration and postcollaboration phases, participants completed an intertemporal decision task individually. During the collaboration phase, participants completed a similar task in small groups, reaching mutually-agreed-upon decisions. The results suggest that group preferences were systematically related to the mean of the group members’ precollaboration preferences. In addition, collaborative decision making altered the group members’ intertemporal preferences. Specifically, individuals’ postcollaboration preferences converged toward the preferences of their respective groups. Furthermore, we found that individuals’ postcollaboration preferences were independently related to both their precollaboration preferences and the preferences of the other group members, suggesting that individuals’ postcollaboration preferences represented a revision of their precollaboration preferences based on the preferences observed in other group members. In Experiment 2, we demonstrated that similar patterns of results were found whether participants were making matching judgments or binary choices.     

Are mindful people more risk-averse? Effects of trait and state mindfulness on risk preference in decision-making

The current research investigated whether various aspects of mindfulness were differentially associated with risk preference in decision-making. In Studies 1 and 2, attention and present-focus aspects of trait mindfulness were associated with lower risk preference in making monetary gains. In Study 3, participants completed either a mindfulness training or listened to a comparable control recording. Compared to the control condition, subjects in the mindfulness condition were more risk-averse in making choices for monetary gains. The attention and present-focus aspects of state mindfulness mediated this connection. Study 4 introduced a loss framing, where attention and present-focus no longer associated with lower risk preference, but awareness and acceptance aspects of trait mindfulness associated with higher risk preference in avoiding monetary losses. The results suggest that different aspects of mindfulness have potential for mitigating risk preference, but such potential is limited depending on the framing of a decision context.     

Neural correlates of intertemporal choice in aggressive behavior

People often have to make decisions between immediate rewards and more long-term goals. Such intertemporal judgments are often investigated in the context of monetary choice or drug use, yet not in regard to aggressive behavior. We combined a novel intertemporal aggression paradigm with functional neuroimaging to examine the role of temporal delay in aggressive behavior and the neural correlates thereof. Sixty-one participants (aged 18–22 years; 37 females) exhibited substantial variability in the extent to which they selected immediate acts of lesser aggression versus delayed acts of greater aggression against a same-sex opponent. Choosing delayed-yet-more-severe aggression was increased by provocation and associated with greater self-control. Preferences for delayed aggression were associated with greater activity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) during such choices, and reduced functional connectivity between the VMPFC and brain regions implicated in motor impulsivity. Preferences for immediate aggression were associated with reduced functional connectivity between the VMPFC and the frontoparietal control network. Dispositionally aggressive participants exhibited reduced VMPFC activity, which partially explained and suppressed their preferences for delayed aggression. Blunted VMPFC activity may thus be a neural mechanism that promotes reactive aggression towards provocateurs among dispositionally aggressive individuals. These findings demonstrate the utility of an intertemporal framework for investigating aggression and provide further evidence for the similar underlying neurobiology between aggression and other rewarding behaviors.     

Decision makers calibrate behavioral persistence on the basis of time-interval experience

A central question in intertemporal decision making is why people reverse their own past choices. Someone who initially prefers a long-run outcome might fail to maintain that preference for long enough to see the outcome realized. Such behavior is usually understood as reflecting preference instability or self-control failure. However, if a decision maker is unsure exactly how long an awaited outcome will be delayed, a reversal can constitute the rational, utility-maximizing course of action. In the present behavioral experiments, we placed participants in timing environments where persistence toward delayed rewards was either productive or counterproductive. Our results show that human decision makers are responsive to statistical timing cues, modulating their level of persistence according to the distribution of delay durations they encounter. We conclude that temporal expectations act as a powerful and adaptive influence on people's tendency to sustain patient decisions.     

Thinking about others and the future: Neural correlates of perspective taking relate to preferences for delayed rewards

We infer the thoughts and feelings of others by taking their perspectives. Similar processes could be used to understand how we will be affected by future events, by allowing us to take the perspective of our future self. In this paper, we test this idea using a previously presented framework for guiding predictions. The framework proposes that a shared neural mechanism is involved in controlling egocentric bias, both while shifting our perspective away from self and towards others, and while shifting our perspective from immediate to future perspectives. To test this framework, 36 adults performed an intertemporal choice task. They were then scanned using 3T functional magnetic resonance imaging while completing a false-belief “localizer” task, which requires egocentric bias control. A positive correlation was observed between the right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ) response during the false-belief task, and preferences for delayed rewards in intertemporal choices. A subset of participants performed the intertemporal choice task again in the scanner, which revealed that the response of the same rTPJ cluster, individually localized during the false-belief task, was higher during delayed over immediate reward choices. In addition, functional connectivity between the rTPJ and ventromedial prefrontal cortex was found to differ between immediate and delayed choices. The current results indicate an overlap in processes of egocentric bias control and those that determine preferences in intertemporal choices, offering a social cognitive explanation for why rewards are devalued with delay in temporal discounting.     

更优更耐心：质量结果对跨期选择的影响

跨期选择以往的研究集中于金钱数量结果。基于维度加工的模型,本文探究了在跨期选择中,人们面对质量差异的结果(如,今天的低配版手机还是六个月后的高配版手机)vs.相对应的金钱结果(如,今天的5000元还是六个月后的6000元)的选择偏好差异。3个实验结果表明：人们面对质量结果(相比于金钱结果)的跨期选择表现得更耐心,而这种现象是由于人们面对选择时在结果维度差异感知不同所致。与金钱结果跨期选择相同,质量结果跨期选择的心理加工过程同样遵循维度间差异比较。本研究为基于维度的跨期选择模型提供了新的证据。     

心理距离对跨期选择和风险选择的影响

通过考察时间距离、社会距离和概率距离对跨期选择和风险选择的影响, 探究跨期选择和风险选择心理过程的相似性, 并检验不同心理距离影响决策的相似性。结果发现, 无论是时间距离(实验1)、社会距离(实验2)、还是概率距离(实验3), 心理距离越远, 被试在跨期选择中越倾向于延迟选项, 在风险选择中越倾向于风险选项。研究认为, 在跨期选择和风险选择中, 选项的表征结构和选项整体评价时不同选项特征的相对权重具有相似性。随着心理距离增加, 与高识解相联系的金额特征的相对权重增加, 与低识解相联系的时间和概率特征的相对权重降低, 这使得被试更倾向于选择金额较大的延迟和风险选项。同时, 研究发现三类心理距离对两类决策有相似影响, 进一步验证了不同心理距离的本质相似性。     

Affect regulation and temporal discounting: interactions between primed, state, and trait affect

Previous research has largely focused on the influence of experienced affect on decision making; however, other sources of affective information may also shape decisions. In two studies, we examine the interacting influences of affective information, state affect, and personality on temporal discounting rates (i.e., the tendency to choose small rewards today rather than larger rewards in the future). In Study 1, participants were primed with either positive or negative affect adjectives before making reward choices. In Study 2, participants underwent either a positive or negative affect induction before making reward choices. Results in both studies indicate that neuroticism interacts with state unpleasant affect and condition (i.e., positive or negative primes or induction) to predict discounting rates. Moreover, the nature of the interactions depends on the regulatory cues of the affective information available. These results suggest that irrelevant (i.e., primes) and stable (i.e., personality traits) sources of affective information also shape judgments and decision making. Thus, current affect levels are not the only source of affective information that guides individuals when making decisions.     

Gambling for Gatorade: risk-sensitive decision making for fluid rewards in humans

Determining how both humans and animals make decisions in risky situations is a central problem in economics, experimental psychology, behavioral economics, and neurobiology. Typically, humans are risk seeking for gains and risk averse for losses, while animals may display a variety of preferences under risk depending on, amongst other factors, internal state. Such differences in behavior may reflect major cognitive and cultural differences or they may reflect differences in the way risk sensitivity is probed in humans and animals. Notably, in most studies humans make one or a few choices amongst hypothetical or real monetary options, while animals make dozens of repeated choices amongst options offering primary rewards like food or drink. To address this issue, we probed risk-sensitive decision making in human participants using a paradigm modeled on animal studies, in which rewards were either small squirts of Gatorade or small amounts of real money. Possible outcomes and their probabilities were not made explicit in either case. We found that individual patterns of decision making were strikingly similar for both juice and for money, both in overall risk preferences and in trial-to-trial effects of reward outcome on choice. Comparison with decisions made by monkeys for juice in a similar task revealed highly similar gambling styles. These results unite known patterns of risk-sensitive decision making in human and nonhuman primates and suggest that factors such as the way a decision is framed or internal state may underlie observed variation in risk preferences between and within species.     

敬畏对跨期选择的影响：时间洞察力和时距敏感度的作用

本研究考察了情绪(敬畏、愉悦和中性)对跨期选择的影响机制,以及时距敏感度和时间洞察力在其中的作用。结果显示：(1)相比中性,敬畏情绪下个体的折扣率更大;(2)相比中性,敬畏情绪下折扣率降幅更大;(3)对于未来取向者,敬畏情绪下折扣率比中性条件下更大;(4)对于现在取向者,敬畏情绪下折扣率降幅比中性条件下更大。结果表明,敬畏情绪通过未来时距的敏感度影响跨期选择偏好,使个体更加偏好延迟奖赏,同时,个体的时间取向在其中起调节作用。     

得失不对称：跨期选择中自我-他人决策差异

采用跨期选择任务范式,考察得失情境下自我–他人决策差异。结果发现：（1）为自己决策比为他人决策更偏好于选择即刻选项;（2）损失情境比获益情境下更偏好于选择即刻选项;（3）获益情境下为自己决策与为他人决策在选择即刻选项上不存在显著差异,而损失情境下为自己决策比为他人决策更偏好于选择即刻选项,表明得失情境下自我–他人决策差异存在不对称性。     

Elevated outcome-anticipation and outcome-evaluation ERPs associated with a greater preference for larger-but-delayed rewards

Although waiting for a reward reduces or discounts its value, some people have a stronger tendency to wait for larger rewards and forgo smaller-but-immediate rewards. This ability to delay gratification is captured by individual differences in so-called intertemporal choices in which individuals are asked to choose between larger-but-delayed versus smaller-but-immediate rewards. The current study used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine whether enhancement in two neurocognitive processes, outcome anticipation and outcome evaluation, modulate individual variability in intertemporal responses. After completing a behavioral intertemporal choice task, 34 participants performed an ERP gambling task. From this ERP task, we separately examined individual differences in outcome anticipation (stimulus-preceding negativity; SPN), early outcome valuation (feedback-related negativity; FRN), and late outcome evaluation (P3). We observed that both elevated outcome-anticipation (SPN) and late outcome-evaluation (P3) neural processes predicted a stronger preference toward larger-but-delayed rewards. No relationship was observed between intertemporal responses and early outcome evaluation (FRN), indicating that the relationship between outcome evaluation and intertemporal responses was specific to the late outcome-evaluation processing stream. Moreover, multiple regression analyses indicated that the SPN and P3 independently modulate individual differences in intertemporal responses, suggesting separate mechanisms underlie the relationship between these two neurocognitive processes and intertemporal responses. Accordingly, we identify two potential neurocognitive modulators of individual variability in intertemporal responses. We discuss the mechanisms underlying these modulators in terms of anticipation-related processing (SPN) and a saliency bias toward gain (compared to loss) outcomes (P3).     

适应性时间管理：死亡意识对时间知觉和跨期决策的影响

死亡意识是个体对自身死亡必然性的认识; 基于进化适应性的考量, 作者认为具有前瞻性的死亡意识作为人类特有的认知能力和个体生命史的终极坐标, 不仅可能引起恐惧感和防御反应, 更重要的是可以帮助人们做出适应性的时间管理。据此推论, 死亡意识的启动会加强人们对时间有限性的关注, 体验出更强的时间流逝感, 影响人们对时间的评估, 以及人们对不同时间点的成本与收益进行权衡而做出的跨期决策。本研究采用死亡凸显范式启动死亡意识, 通过两个实验探讨了死亡意识、时间知觉和跨期决策三者之间的关系。结果发现, 死亡意识启动使被试低估时间距离, 并表现出较低的跨期决策延迟折扣率, 从而在较小的即时获益与更大的延迟的获益之间更为偏好未来导向的选项。进一步的分析显示, 时间知觉在死亡意识和跨期决策延迟折扣率之间起到部分中介变量的作用。以上的研究结果初步揭示了死亡意识在时间管理上的适应性价值。     

时间感知差异对跨期选择倾向的影响作用

本研究从人格特质差异角度出发, 采用简单跨期选择任务考察了由时距复制任务筛选的两类时距估计倾向不同的群体(时间高估者和时间低估者)在跨期选择中行为倾向的差异, 旨在探讨时间感知在跨期决策中的影响作用。结果发现：(1)无论任务难易, 与时间低估者相比, 时间高估者在跨期选择时更倾向于选择即时兑现的较小奖赏。(2)时间高估者和低估者的跨期选择反应时没有明显的差异, 但二者的反应时受任务难度的影响程度明显不同, 时间高估者的跨期选择反应时不受任务难度的影响, 而时间低估者在任务困难时的反应时比任务容易时明显增长。这些结果表明, 在跨期选择过程中, 时间感知倾向差异明显地影响了个体的选择倾向。时间高估倾向个体对时距的高估可能会导致其在跨期选择权衡中对收益成本的高估, 进而做出冲动的选择行为。