The University of Manchester Longitudinal Study of Cognition in Normal Healthy Old Age, 1983 through 2003

This paper describes the participants, design, method and tests used during a 20-year longitudinal study of cognitive changes in increasing age experienced by 6542 healthy residents of Greater Manchester and Newcastle-upon-Tyne, then aged from 42 to 92 years. Information collected and updated includes demographics and health, scores on two, biennially alternated batteries of cognitive tests, repeated administrations of the Beck and Yesavage depression inventories and of self-reports of stressful life events, self-evaluation and locus of control questionnaires and detailed information on lifestyle, hobbies and occupations, physical and social activities, family circumstances and health history. Records have allowed investigation of rates of cognitive changes from 36 months to 20 years preceding death from a variety of causes. Collection of blood and saliva provide, blood chemistry and cortisol levels to analyse associations of rates of cognitive change to genetic factors, blood chemistry and cortisol levels. A random effects analysis confirms marked effects of drop-out and practice due to repeated testing and shows how true rates of change, and of increases in variability between individuals may be ascertained after these have been identified.     

Conflicting worlds of meaning: Juvenile delinquency in 19th century Manchester

Until recently historians and sociologists tended to view juvenile delinquency within the context of subcultural theory. This was often supported by evidence taken from contemporary sources. A closer and more skillful reading of the evidence suggests that juveniles fluctuated between normative values and those of the sub‐culture of delinquency (as stated by Matza). Also they were seen by adults within a conflicting paradigm as objects of contempt on one hand and young innocents in need of care and protection on the other.     

Bayesian journey-to-crime modelling of juvenile and adult offenders by gender in Manchester

This study tested the Bayesian journey-to-crime (JTC) model by gender and age for serial offenders from Manchester, England. The data were 4056 crimes committed by 171 serial offenders between 2003 and 2006. The data were subdivided by gender and age group to examine whether accuracy and precision varied by these subgroups. In general, the centre of minimum distance was found to be the most accurate measure, but the Bayesian risk and product measures were found to be the most precise measurements. The traditional ‘distance decay’ type of JTC function did not produce estimates that are as accurate nor as precise as the Bayesian approach. Tests were conducted on whether specific gender and age group JTC functions and origin–destination matrices improved predictability. With the exception of juvenile male offenders, the general functions were more accurate and precise. In terms of building an accurate and precise geographical profiling methodology, the results point to the need to include information on the likely predisposition of neighbourhoods to produce offenders as well as information on the crime opportunities available to offenders. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Further analyses of the effects of practice,dropout, sex,socio-economic advantage,and recruitment cohort differences during the University of Manchester longitudinal study of cognitive change in old age

A sample of 4,314 volunteers who, when first recruited, were aged from 41 to 93 years were quadrennially tested from 2 to 4 occasions during the next 4 to 20 years on the Cattell Culture Fair intelligence test, 2 tests of information-processing speed, the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS) vocabulary test, and 3 memory tests. After significant effects of practice, sex, demographics, socio-economic advantage, and recruitment cohort had been identified and considered, performance on all tests declined with age. These age-related declines accelerated for the Cattell and WAIS, 2 tests of information speed, and 2 of the memory tests. For all tests individuals' trajectories of age-related change diverged with increasing age but, unexpectedly, were not affected by demographic factors. Practice gains from an initial experience of the cognitive tests remained undiminished as the interval before the second experience increased from 4 to 8 + years.