Hindsight bias and causal reasoning: a minimalist approach

What factors contribute to hindsight bias, the phenomenon whereby the known outcome of an event appears obvious only after the fact? The Causal Model Theory (CMT) of hindsight bias (Nestler et al. in Soc Psychol 39:182–188, 2008a; in J Expl Psychol: Learn Mem Cog 34:1043–1054, 2008b; Pezzo in Mem 11:421–441, 2003; Wasserman et al. in Pers Soc Psychol Bull 17:30–35, 1991) posits that hindsight bias can occur when people have the opportunity to identify potential causal antecedents and evaluate whether they could have led to the outcome. Two experiments incorporating highly controlled minimalist scenarios supported the CMT. As predicted by the CMT, hindsight bias occurred when the causal factor explained the actual outcome better than the alternative outcome, and reverse hindsight bias occurred when the causal factor explained the alternative outcome better than the actual outcome. Moreover, we found new evidence that outcome knowledge alone was insufficient to elicit hindsight bias in the absence of a potential causal antecedent. Implications for future directions in hindsight bias research are discussed.     

How Resources (or Lack Thereof) Influence Advice Seeking on Psychological Well-being and Marital Risk: Testing Pathways of the Lack of Financial Stability,Support, and Strain

Using the model of conservation of resources (Hobfoll in The ecology of stress. Hempshire, New York, 1988; Hobfoll in Am Psychol 44:513–524, 1989; Hobfoll in Stress, culture, and community: the psychology and philosophy of stress. Plenum, New York, 1998; Hobfoll in Appl Psychol Int Rev 50:337–421, 2001), we explore how advice seeking, as influenced by lack of financial stability and support and strain from others (i.e., spouse, friends, and family) predicts psychological well-being and marital risk. Married and committed individuals (n = 1,798) were drawn from a nationally representative sample, the MIDUS. We found that advice seeking predicted psychological well-being and marital risk, but that the relationships depended on the availability of resources (i.e., financial stability, support, strain) and from whom support or strain was received. For example, for individuals lacking financial stability, marital risk decreased with advice seeking for those reporting high support from friends, whereas for individuals with financial stability, marital risk increased with advice seeking for those reporting high support from friends. We explain how understanding advice seeking and its outcomes must be considered within the context of available resources (or lack thereof).     

Parents’ Grief in the Context of Adult Child Mental Illness: A Qualitative Review

Research indicates that parents and other family members often grieve their child or relative’s mental illness. This grief appears resultant from a profound sense of loss, which has been described as complicated and nonfinite (e.g., Atkinson in Am J Psychiatry 151(8):1137–1139, 1994; Davis and Schultz in Soc Sci Med 46(3):369–379, 1998; Jones in Br J Soc Work 34:961–979, 2004; MacGregor in Soc Work 39(2):160–166, 1994; Osborne and Coyle in Couns Psychol Q 15(4):307–323, 2002; Ozgul in Aust N Z J Fam Ther 25(4):183–187, 2004; Tuck et al. in Arch Psychiatric Nurs 11(3):118–125, 1997). This paper reviews existent research in this emerging field, with a focus on parents’ grief experience in relation to their adult child’s mental disorder. Studies that explore parents’ and family members’ grief, using both qualitative and quantitative methodologies, are considered. Research evidence for the association between parents’ and family members’ grief and other outcomes are discussed. Findings concerning the prediction of grief in parents and family members who have a child or relative with a mental disorder will be reviewed. Finally, this paper considers methodological and theoretical issues associated with existent research and presents options for further study.     

The Importance of Therapist/Client Ethnic/Racial Matching in Couples Treatment for Domestic Violence

Outcome research indicates a relative degree of variability regarding the effectiveness of client and therapist ethnic/racial matching (see Cabral and Smith 2011; Shin et al. in J Couns Psychol 52(1):45–56, 2005). Considering these findings, our study hopes to further understand the complexity behind ethnic/racial matching in treatment. In this study, we examined interviews with clients and therapists regarding ethnic/racial matching in couples treatment for domestic violence (e.g., McCollum and Stith in Violence Vict 23(2):187–201, 2008). Our findings indicated that ethnic/racial matching is a complex multi-faceted issue and connected ethnic/racial matching with issues of culture, human experience, and others. We recommend clinicians consider the complexity of ethnic/racial matching in practice.     

A Two-Tier Full-Information Item Factor Analysis Model with Applications

Motivated by Gibbons et al.’s (Appl. Psychol. Meas. 31:4–19, 2007) full-information maximum marginal likelihood item bifactor analysis for polytomous data, and Rijmen, Vansteelandt, and De Boeck’s (Psychometrika 73:167–182, 2008) work on constructing computationally efficient estimation algorithms for latent variable models, a two-tier item factor analysis model is developed in this research. The modeling framework subsumes standard multidimensional IRT models, bifactor IRT models, and testlet response theory models as special cases. Features of the model lead to a reduction in the dimensionality of the latent variable space, and consequently significant computational savings. An EM algorithm for full-information maximum marginal likelihood estimation is developed. Simulations and real data demonstrations confirm the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed methods. Three real data sets from a large-scale educational assessment, a longitudinal public health survey, and a scale development study measuring patient reported quality of life outcomes are analyzed as illustrations of the model’s broad range of applicability.     

Semantic priming occurs for word but not location pronunciation in the postcue task

Semantic priming refers to the finding that a word response is facilitated if it is preceded by a related word compared to when it is preceded by an unrelated word. Dallas and Merikle (Can J Psychol 30: 15–21 1976a; Bull Psychon Soc 8: 441–444 1976b) demonstrated that semantic priming occurred under conditions in which a pair of simultaneously displayed words was previewed for over a second prior to the onset of a cue indicating which of the words should be pronounced aloud (postcue task). In contrast, semantic interference effects have been reported for postcue picture-naming tasks (Dean et al. in J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn 27: 733–743, 2001; Humphreys et al. in J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn 21: 961–980, 1995). According to Dean et al., the semantic interference effects in postcue picture naming occur because the integration of the object and the cued attribute in memory is more difficult for categorically related pictures than for unrelated pictures. The aim of this experiment was to determine whether this idea was true for postcue word pronunciation tasks. Participants completed two postcue tasks, one requiring pronunciation of the target word indicated by a locational cue and another requiring pronunciation of the location of a centrally presented word. Results indicated a semantic priming effect only for the locational cue condition suggesting that the integration of the cue and identity information was unaffected by word context. These data suggest that priming in a postcue word pronunciation task may be due to feedback from residual activation within the semantic system facilitating access to the target word’s phonology.     

Work Status Congruence’s Relation to Employee Attitudes and Behaviors: The Moderating Role of Procedural Justice

Purpose  

The purpose of this study is to explore procedural justice as a boundary condition of work status congruence’s (WSC) relationships with organizational commitment and organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). WSC is defined as the degree to which an employee’s schedule, shift, full-time or part-time status, and number of working hours, match his or her preferences (Holtom et al. in J Appl Psychol 86:80–93, 2002). This exploration is grounded in the outcome favorability–procedural justice interaction literature (e.g., Brockner in Acad Manag Rev 27:58–76, 2002).     

Does familiarity or conflict account for performance in the word-stem completion task? Evidence from behavioural and event-related-potential data

The conflict monitoring theory (CMT) assumes that word-stems associated with several completions should lead to crosstalk and conflict due to underdetermined responding situation (Botvinick et al. in Psychol Rev 108(3):624–652, 2001). In contrast, the Multiple-Read-Out-Model (MROM) of Jacobs and Grainger (J Exp Psychol 20(6): 1311–1334, 1994) predicts a high level of general lexical activity (GLA) for word-stems with many completions, indicating a higher stimulus familiarity because these stems are more probable to be read. We compared word-stems with several completions against word-stems with one possible completion while measuring response times and electrophysiological recordings. Slowest response times and a distinct FN400 component, which has previously been related to the concept of familiarity (Curran in Memory Cogn 28(6):923–938, 2000), were apparent for word-stems that could only be associated with a single response. These findings support the claims of the MROM. Furthermore, the lack of the N2-component for word-stems with several completions continues to challenge the EEG-extension of the CMT (Yeung et al. in Psychol Rev 111(4):2004).     

A General Family of Limited Information Goodness-of-Fit Statistics for Multinomial Data

Maydeu-Olivares and Joe (J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 100:1009–1020, 2005; Psychometrika 71:713–732, 2006) introduced classes of chi-square tests for (sparse) multidimensional multinomial data based on low-order marginal proportions. Our extension provides general conditions under which quadratic forms in linear functions of cell residuals are asymptotically chi-square. The new statistics need not be based on margins, and can be used for one-dimensional multinomials. We also provide theory that explains why limited information statistics have good power, regardless of sparseness. We show how quadratic-form statistics can be constructed that are more powerful than X ² and yet, have approximate chi-square null distribution in finite samples with large models. Examples with models for truncated count data and binary item response data are used to illustrate the theory.     

Connecting Data to Action: How the Santa Cruz County Community Assessment Project Contributes to Better Outcomes for Youth

Community indicator projects have the potential to deliver new knowledge about the quality of life in local communities and drive actions to improve them (Phillips 2003; Holden Social Indicators Research 92:429–448, 2009; Memon and Johnstone 2008). However, the connection between the information produced by community indicator projects and the actions taken to improve conditions in communities remains under-researched (Holden Social Indicators Research 92:429–448, 2009; Hezri and Dovers Ecological Economics 60:86–99, 2006). This is because community indicator projects have mainly been conceptualized as producing information for action rather than as part of an action process (Memon and Johnstone 2008). This paper provides a case study of a community indicator project with an explicit plan to move beyond the data and into action. A review of one of the oldest community indicator projects in the United States, the Santa Cruz County Community Assessment Project (CAP) demonstrates how an action oriented community improvement cycle has contributed to measurable improvements for children and youth in one California County. The paper identifies key elements that were important for turning CAP data into local actions and concludes with lessons for community indicator practitioners and questions for future research.     

Expectations from preceding prosody influence segmentation in online sentence processing

Previous work examining prosodic cues in online spoken-word recognition has focused primarily on local cues to word identity. However, recent studies have suggested that utterance-level prosodic patterns can also influence the interpretation of subsequent sequences of lexically ambiguous syllables (Dilley, Mattys, & Vinke, Journal of Memory and Language, 63:274–294, 2010; Dilley & McAuley, Journal of Memory and Language, 59:294–311, 2008). To test the hypothesis that these distal prosody effects are based on expectations about the organization of upcoming material, we conducted a visual-world experiment. We examined fixations to competing alternatives such as pan and panda upon hearing the target word panda in utterances in which the acoustic properties of the preceding sentence material had been manipulated. The proportions of fixations to the monosyllabic competitor were higher beginning 200 ms after target word onset when the preceding prosody supported a prosodic constituent boundary following pan-, rather than following panda. These findings support the hypothesis that expectations based on perceived prosodic patterns in the distal context influence lexical segmentation and word recognition.     

Route-based travel and shared routes in sympatric spider and woolly monkeys: cognitive and evolutionary implications

Many wild primates occupy large home ranges and travel long distances each day. Navigating these ranges to find sufficient food presents a substantial cognitive challenge, but we are still far from understanding either how primates represent spatial information mentally or how they use this information to navigate under natural conditions. In the course of a long-term socioecological study, we investigated and compared the travel paths of sympatric spider monkeys (Ateles belzebuth) and woolly monkeys (Lagothrix poeppigii) in Amazonian Ecuador. During several field seasons spanning an 8-year period, we followed focal individuals or groups of both species continuously for periods of multiple days and mapped their travel paths in detail. We found that both primates typically traveled through their home ranges following repeatedly used paths, or “routes”. Many of these routes were common to both species and were stable across study years. Several important routes appeared to be associated with distinct topographic features (e.g., ridgetops), which may constitute easily recognized landmarks useful for spatial navigation. The majority of all location records for both species fell along or near identified routes, as did most of the trees used for fruit feeding. Our results provide strong support for the idea that both woolly and spider monkey use route-based mental maps similar to those proposed by Poucet (Psychol Rev 100:163–182, 1993). We suggest that rather than remembering the specific locations of thousands of individual feeding trees and their phenological schedules, spider and woolly monkeys could nonetheless forage efficiently by committing to memory a series of route segments that, when followed, bring them into contact with many potential feeding sources for monitoring or visitation. Furthermore, because swallowed and defecated seeds are deposited in greater frequency along routes, the repeated use of particular travel paths over generations could profoundly influence the structure and composition of tropical forests, raising the intriguing possibility that these and other primate frugivores are active participants in constructing their own ecological niches. Building upon the insights of Byrne (Q J Exp Psychol 31:147–154, 1979, Normality and pathology in cognitive functions. Academic, London, pp 239–264, 1982) and Milton (The foraging strategy of howler monkeys: a study in primate economics. Columbia University Press, New York, 1980, On the move: how and why animals travel in groups. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp 375–417, 2000), our results highlight the likely general importance of route-based travel in the memory and foraging strategies of nonhuman primates.

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This contribution is part of the Special Issue “A Socioecological Perspective on Primate Cognition” (Cunningham and Janson 2007).     

Time-course analysis of temporal preparation on central processes

Participants usually respond faster to a response signal (RS) when this signal is preceded by a warning stimulus than when it is not. A question of theoretical importance is the locus of this facilitating effect within the information processing stream. Recently, Los and Schut (Cogn Psychol 57:20–55, 2008) suggested that temporal preparation acts on central processes while perception of the RS is under way. The present study provides a stochastic model (central preparation model, CPM) based on this hypothesis and presents three experiments testing this model. To track the complete time-course of temporal preparation, the warning signal could either precede or follow the RS. The data show some systematic deviation from the model’s predictions, questioning CPM’s assumption that temporal preparation acts only on central processes. An alternative mechanism of temporal preparation based on the parallel grains model [Miller and Ulrich (Cogn Psychol 46:101–151, 2003)] is discussed.     

Prayer as Therapeutic Process Toward Transforming Destructiveness Within a Spiritual Direction Relationship

This article will expand previous conceptualizations (Kuchan, Presence Int J Spiritual Dir 12(4):22–34, 2006; J Religion Health 47(2):263–275, 2008; J Pastoral Care Counsel, forthcoming) of what might be occurring during a prayer practice that creates space within a spiritual direction relationship for the creation of inner images that reveal a person’s unconscious relational longings and co-created representations of God that seem to facilitate therapeutic process toward aliveness. In previous articles, I suggest one way to understand the prayer experience is through a lens of Winnicottian notions of transitional space, illusion, and co-creation of God images. This article expands on these ideas to include an understanding of God as Objective Other (Lewis, The four loves, 1960) interacting with a part of a person’s self (Jung, in: The structure and dynamics of the psyche, collected works 8, 1934; Symington, Narcissism, a new theory, 1993) that has capacity for subjectivity (Benjamin, Like subjects, love objects: Essays on recognition and sexual difference, 1995) and co-creation (Winnicott, Home is where we start from: Essays by a psychoanalyst, 1990), of inner representations of God (Ulanov, Winnicott, god and psychic reality, 2001). I also expand on a notion of God as “Source of aliveness” by integrating an aspect of how Symington (Narcissism, a new theory, 1993) thinks about “the lifegiver,” which he understands to be a mental object. After offering this theoretical expansion of the prayer practice/experience, one woman’s inner representations of self and God are reflected upon in terms of a therapeutic process toward transforming destructiveness, utilizing ideas from Winnicott, Kohut, and Benjamin.     

Retrieval-induced forgetting without competition: Testing the retrieval specificity assumption of the inhibition theory

According to the inhibition theory of forgetting (Anderson, Journal of Memory and Language 49:415–445, 2003; Anderson, Bjork, & Bjork, Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 7:522-530, 2000), retrieval practice on a subset of target items leads to forgetting for the other, nontarget items, due to the fact that these other items interfere during the retrieval process and have to be inhibited in order to resolve the interference. In this account, retrieval-induced forgetting occurs only when competition takes place between target and nontarget items during target item practice, since only in such a case is inhibition of the nontarget items necessary. Strengthening of the target item without active retrieval should not lead to such an impairment. In two experiments, we investigated this assumption by using noncompetitive retrieval during the practice phase. We strengthened the cue–target item association during practice by recall of the category name instead of the target item, and thus eliminated competition between the different item types (as in Anderson et al., Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 7:522-530 2000). In contrast to the expectations of the inhibition theory, retrieval-induced forgetting occurred even without competition, and thus the present study does not support the retrieval specificity assumption.     

Comparisons of Online Reading Paradigms: Eye Tracking, Moving-Window, and Maze

This study compares four methodologies used to examine online sentence processing during reading. Specifically, self-paced, non-cumulative, moving-window reading (Just et al. in J Exp Psychol Gen 111:228–238, 1982), eye tracking (see e.g., Rayner in Q J Exp Psychol 62:1457–1506, 2009), and two versions of the maze task (Forster et al. in Behav Res Methods 41:163–171, 2009)—the lexicality maze and the grammaticality maze—were used to investigate the processing of sentences containing temporary structural ambiguities. Of particular interest were (i) whether each task was capable of revealing processing differences on these sentences and (ii) whether these effects were indicated precisely at the predicted word/region. Although there was considerable overlap in the general pattern of results from the four tasks, there were also clear differences among them in terms of the strength and timing of the observed effects. In particular, excepting sentences that tap into clause-closure commitments, both maze task versions provided robust, “localized” indications of incremental sentence processing difficulty relative to self-paced reading and eye tracking.     

Feature integration and spatial attention: common processes for endogenous and exogenous orienting

Briand (J Exp Psychol Hum Percept Perform 24:1243–1256, 1998) and Briand and Klein (J Exp Psychol Hum Percept Perform 13:228–241, 1987) demonstrated that spatial cueing effects are larger for detecting conjunction of features than for detecting simple features when spatial attention is oriented exogenously, and not when attention is oriented endogenously. Their results were interpreted as if only exogenous attention affects the posterior spatial attention system that performs the feature binding function attributed to spatial attention by Treisman’s feature integration theory (FIT; 1980). In a series of 6 experiments, we attempted to replicate Briand’s findings. Manipulations of distractor string size and symmetry of stimulus presentation left and right from fixation were implemented in Posner’s cueing paradigm. The data indicate that both exogenous and endogenous cueing address the same attentional mechanism needed for feature binding. The results also limit the generalisability of Briand’s proposal concerning the role of exogenous attention in feature integration. Furthermore, the importance to control the effect of unintended attentional capture in a cueing task is demonstrated.     

The Interplay Between Post-Critical Beliefs and Anxiety: An Exploratory Study in a Polish Sample

The present research investigates the relationship between anxiety and the religiosity dimensions that Wulff (Psychology of religion: classic and contemporary views, Wiley, New York, 1991; Psychology of religion. Classic and contemporary views, Wiley, New York, 1997; Psychologia religii. Klasyczna i współczesna, Wydawnictwo Szkolne i Pedagogiczne, Warszawa, 1999) described as Exclusion vs. Inclusion of Transcendence and Literal vs. Symbolic. The researchers used the Post-Critical Belief scale (Hutsebaut in J Empir Theol 9(2):48–66, 1996; J Empir Theol 10(1):39–54, 1997) to measure Wulff’s religiosity dimensions and the IPAT scale (Krug et al. 1967) to measure anxiety. Results from an adult sample (N = 83) suggest that three dimensions show significant relations with anxiety. Orthodoxy correlated negatively with suspiciousness (L) and positively with guilt proneness (O) factor—in the whole sample. Among women, Historical Relativism negatively correlated with suspiciousness (L), lack of integration (Q3), general anxiety and covert anxiety. Among men, Historical Relativism positively correlated with tension (Q4) and emotional instability (C), general anxiety, covert anxiety and overt anxiety. External Critique was correlated with suspiciousness (L) by men.     

Family Conflict, Emotional Security, and Child Development: Translating Research Findings into a Prevention Program for Community Families

The social problem posed by family conflict to the physical and psychological health and well-being of children, parents, and underlying family relationships is a cause for concern. Inter-parental and parent–child conflict are linked with children’s behavioral, emotional, social, academic, and health problems, with children’s risk particularly elevated in distressed marriages. Supported by the promise of brief psycho-educational programs (e.g., Halford et al. in Journal of Family Psychology 22:497–505, 2008; Sanders in Journal of Family Psychology 22:506–517, 2008), the present paper presents the development and evaluation of a prevention program for community families with children, concerned with family-wide conflict and relationships, and building on Emotional Security Theory (Davies and Cummings in Psychological Bulletin 116:387–411, 1994). This program uniquely focuses on translating research and theory in this area into brief, engaging programs for community families to improve conflict and emotional security for the sake of the children. Evaluation is based on multi-domain and multi-method assessments of family-wide and child outcomes in the context of a randomized control design. A series of studies are briefly described in the programmatic development of a prevention program for conflict and emotional security for community families, culminating in a program for family-wide conflict and emotional security for families with adolescents. With regard to this ongoing program, evidence is presented at the post-test for improvements in family-wide functioning, consideration of the relative benefits for different groups within the community, and preliminary support for the theoretical bases for program outcomes.