Dynamic consistency in the logic of decision

Philosophical Studies - Arif Ahmed has recently argued that causal decision theory is dynamically inconsistent and that we should therefore prefer evidential decision theory. However, the principal...     

Attitudinal and consequential expectancies in behavioral decision making

Two experiments were conducted to investigate the degree to which persons distinguish between what are termed attitudinal and distant consequence expectancies, the conditions under which consequential expectancies predict behavior, and the effects of conflicting attitudinal and consequential expectancies. Attitudinal expectancies are beliefs about the immediate hedonic outcomes of behaving; consequential expectancies are beliefs about distant, nonsocially mediated behavioral outcomes. A simulation experiment was conducted in which, in a 3×3 design, subjects either were or were not given attitudinal and consequential information about hypothetical behaviors that either favored or did not favor performing the behaviors. A second experiment extended the first by using a real rather than a hypothetical decision dilemma and by manipulating attitudinal (and social support) versus consequential expectancies in a 2×3 design. The results of the two studies were nearly identical in supporting the attitude-distant consequence distinction and in demonstrating that consequential considerations are an important antecedent of behavioral decisions. The implications of these findings and of the expectancy theory/decision-making approach to the development of a broad theory of action are discussed.     

Affective biasing of choices in gambling task decision making

The proponents of the somatic marker hypothesis presume that rational decision making is guided by emotional reactions that are developed from prior experience. Supporting evidence for the hypothesis comes almost exclusively from the short-term affective reactions that are learned during the course of a hypothetical decision-making task—the gambling task (GT). We examined GT performance and affective reactions to choices when those choices were biased by words that had preexisting affective value. In one experiment, affectively valued words directly signaled good and bad choices. A congruent relation between affective value of word and choice outcome improved GT performance, whereas an incongruent relation greatly interfered with performance. In another experiment, affectively valued words were maintained as a working memory (WM) load between GT choices. A WM load with affectively positive words somewhat improved GT performance, whereas affectively negative words interfered with performance. Somatic markers—indicated by differential anticipatory skin conductance response (SCR ) amplitude for good and bad choices—appeared at a point in the GT session when choice performance was superior. However, differential SCR developed during the session after good choice performance was already established. These results indicate that preexisting affective biases can influence GT decision making. In addition, the somatic markers that are regular accompaniments of GT decision making appeared to be temporally lagging indicators of choice performance. 2006 Psychonomic Society, Inc.     

On decision rules and information processing strategies for choices among multiattribute alternatives

Abstract.— It is suggested that a decision in a complex situation can be described as a sequential process in which different decision rules and information processing strategies can be used at different points in time. Examples of possible decision rules are presented in an approximate order of complexity. Two ways for processing the information in a decision situation, viz., breadth-first or depth-first strategies, are discussed and suggestions are made about their relationship to particular decision rules. Finally, it is proposed that the order of application of particular rules in a decision process is guided by a tendency to minimize cognitive effort.     

The decision to check in multialternative choices and limited sensitivity to default

Given the rapid proliferation of smartphone applications and data aggregation websites, in many situations people can use decision aids to guide their choices. For example, they may consider whether to use a navigation device to check the fastest route or whether to use a price comparison website to find the cheapest deal. In what circumstances will subjects use a costly comparison decision aid (which I refer to as “checking”) to choose for them? In six studies, I investigate the impact of the number of available alternatives and checking's attractiveness on the decision to check. While at first increasing the attractiveness of checking led to higher checking rates, a further increase in the number of available alternatives (and thus checking's attractiveness) did not increase the checking rate. Surprisingly, even when checking had a 40% higher expected value compared with not checking, the observed checking rate was below 45%, contrary to risk and ambiguity aversion predictions. Furthermore, labeling the checking alternative as the default had no impact on its choice rate. I find large individual differences in decisions to check. Surprisingly, subjects' initial decisions had high predictive power over their subsequent checking rates, even after 100 trials with full feedback. I propose two simple learning models that capture well the aggregated results.     

Process traces of binary choices: Evidence for selective and adaptive decision heuristics

While previous research has shown that human decision processes adjust to the characteristics of choice situations and task demands, the present study examined whether information processing would even adapt to the characteristics of an individual choice pair. By a process tracing method it was found that the amount of inspected information systematically depended upon the particular choice pair. In order to specify the selective and adaptive information processing, criterion-dependent choice models were introduced. These models postulate that information processing continues until the accumulated amount by which one alternative is better than the other reaches or exceeds a certain criterion. These models are strongly supported by the empirical data of the present study. Deviations between model predictions and observed data are explained in terms of fluctuating feature values of the choice alternatives.     

Cells,circuits, and choices: Social influences on perceptual decision making

Making decisions is an integral part of everyday life. Social psychologists have demonstrated in many studies that humans’ decisions are frequently and strongly influenced by the opinions of others—even in simple perceptual decisions, where, for example, participants have to judge what an image looks like. However, because the effect of other people’s opinions on decision making has remained largely unaddressed by the neuroimaging and neurophysiology literature, we are only beginning to understand how social influence is integrated into the decision-making process. We put forward the thesis that by probing the neurophysiology of social influence with perceptual decisionmaking tasks similar to those used in the seminal work of Asch (1952, 1956), this gap could be remedied. Perceptual paradigms are already widely used to probe neuronal mechanisms of decision making in nonhuman primates. There is also increasing evidence about how nonhuman primates’ behavior is influenced by observing conspecifics. The high spatial and temporal resolution of neurophysiological recordings in awake monkeys could provide insight into where and how social influence modulates decision making, and thus should enable us to develop detailed functional models of the neural mechanisms that support the integration of social influence into the decision-making process.     

Promotion and prevention choices between stability and change

Two situations involving choice between stability and change were examined: task substitution, which deals with choosing between resuming an interrupted activity and doing a substitute activity, and endowment, which deals with choosing between a possessed object and an alternative object. Regulatory focus theory (E. T. Higgins, 1997, 1998) predicts that a promotion focus will be associated with openness to change, whereas a prevention focus will be associated with a preference for stability. Five studies confirmed this prediction with both situational induction of and chronic personality differences in regulatory focus. In Studies 1 and 2, individuals in a prevention focus were more inclined than individuals in a promotion focus to resume an interrupted task rather than do a substitute task. In Studies 3-5, individuals in a prevention focus, but not individuals in a promotion focus, exhibited a reluctance to exchange currently possessed objects (i.e., endowment) or previously possessed objects.     

Motivated decision making: effects of activation and self-centrality of values on choices and behavior

Six studies examined the value-behavior relation and focused on motivational properties of values, the self, and value activation. Priming environmental values enhanced attention to and the weight of information related to those values, which resulted in environmentally friendly consumer choices. This only occurred if these values were central to the self-concept. Value-congruent choices were also found in response to countervalue behavior in an unrelated context. Donating behavior congruent with central altruistic values was found as a result of enhanced self-focus, thus demonstrating the importance of the self in the value-behavior relation. The external validity of the value-centrality measure and its distinction from attitudes were demonstrated in the prediction of voting. Values were thus found to give meaning to, energize, and regulate value-congruent behavior, but only if values were cognitively activated and central to the self.     

Take-the-best and the influence of decision-inconsistent attributes on decision confidence and choices in memory-based decisions

Take-the-best (TTB) is a decision strategy according to which attributes about choice options are sequentially processed in descending order of validity, and attribute processing is stopped once an attribute discriminates between options. Consequently, TTB-decisions rely on only one, the best discriminating, attribute, and lower-valid attributes need not be processed because they are TTB-irrelevant. Recent research suggests, however, that when attribute information is visually present during decision-making, TTB-irrelevant attributes are processed and integrated into decisions nonetheless. To examine whether TTB-irrelevant attributes are retrieved and integrated when decisions are made memory-based, we tested whether the consistency of a TTB-irrelevant attribute affects TTB-users’ decision behaviour in a memory-based decision task. Participants first learned attribute configurations of several options. Afterwards, they made several decisions between two of the options, and we manipulated conflict between the second-best attribute and the TTB-decision. We assessed participants’ decision confidence and the proportion of TTB-inconsistent choices. According to TTB, TTB-irrelevant attributes should not affect confidence and choices, because these attributes should not be retrieved. Results showed, however, that TTB-users were less confident and made more TTB-inconsistent choices when TTB-irrelevant information was in conflict with the TTB-decision than when it was not, suggesting that TTB-users retrieved and integrated TTB-irrelevant information.     

Feedforward and feedback consistency effects for high- and low-frequency words in lexical decision and naming

In three experiments, we examined feedforward and feedback consistency effects in word recognition. Feedforward consistency is the degree to which a word's pronunciation is consistent with that of similarly spelled words, and feedback consistency refers to whether there is more than one way to spell a pronunciation. Previously, Stone, Vanhoy, and Van Orden (1997) reported feedforward and feedback consistency effects for low-frequency words in a lexical decision task. We investigated the effect of feedforward and feedback consistency for both high- and low-frequency words in lexical decision and naming. In both tasks, we found that feedforward and feedback inconsistent words were processed more slowly than consistent words, regardless of word frequency. These findings indicate that both types of consistency are involved in visual word recognition.     

复杂决策规则下MIRT的分类准确性和分类一致性

介绍多维项目反应理论模型下分类准确性和分类一致性指标, 采用蒙特卡罗方法实现复杂决策规则下指标计算, 并从数学上证明分类准确性指标两类估计量在均匀先验和相同决策规则条件下依概率收敛于同一真值。研究结果表明：分类准确性指标可以比较准确地评价分类结果的准确性; 分类一致性指标可以较好地评价分类结果的重测一致性; 在一定条件下, 基于能力量尺的指标优于基于原始总分的指标; 纵使测验维度增加, 估计精度仍比较好; 随着测验长度和维度间相关增加, 分类准确性和分类一致性更高。指标可以用来评价标准参照测验或计算机分类测验的多种决策规则下分类信度和效度。     

The transitivity of choices between different response requirements

This experiment tested the transitivity of hens' choices between response requirements differing in both form and number. In a concurrent second-order schedule procedure, 6 hens chose between two alternatives by making either key-peck or door-push responses. The reinforcement rates on the two alternatives remained constant and equal throughout conditions, but the number of responses (i.e., key pecks or door pushes) required on each alternative was varied by changing the second-order (fixed-ratio) requirements. The preferences obtained from two pairings of response requirements allowed prediction of the preferences expected in a third pairing. No intransitivities were found, implying that the response requirements lie on a common unitary scale of value. For response-based measures, the obtained preferences varied evenly around perfect, multiplicative prediction, and all satisfied strong transitivity, implying an underlying interval scale of value. For time-based measures, only moderate transitivity was satisfied, implying only an ordinal scale of value. Time-based measures were confounded with the differing times taken to complete each response requirement. The existence of such scales indicates that direct comparisons of different response requirements may be possible.     

Seeking consistency between planning orientation and situational purchase mindset

The research applies consistency theory to investigate how planning orientation, planner, or reactor combines with situational purchase mindsets. The results of three studies reveal that (i) consistency between planning orientation and situational mindset fosters more action responses in terms of number of stores one intends to visit or actually visited; (ii) when inconsistency is experienced, action responses are fewer because the consumer seeks to resolve inconsistencies by consulting others to help build consensus toward one emerging purchase decision alternative; (iii) the findings depend upon whether the purchase context is hedonic or utilitarian for the planner but not for the reactor; and (iv) the impulsive scenario reverses the predictions of consistency theory. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Life choices well made: How selective control strategies relate to career and partner decision processes

There are many benefits of applying control strategies that foster engagement in pursuing selected goals (i.e., selective control strategies). We examined one such benefit by investigating how use of selective control strategies when making important real-life decisions helps young adults make satisfactory choices in the areas of work and love. In a prospective longitudinal study, 60 students who intended to choose a college major and/or find a romantic partner initially reported on their control strategies. Subsequently, we assessed changes in the perceived attractiveness of considered majors and partners during decision making and our participants’ satisfaction with their choices. As expected, use of selective control strategies predicted greater choice satisfaction. This association was mediated by the greater perceived attractiveness of chosen majors or partners, which increased during decision making. Applying selective control strategies during real-life decisions thus leads to more favorable evaluations of the resulting choices, which can ease their implementation.     

Personality, career decision self-efficacy and commitment to the career choices process among Chinese graduate students

This study examined the mediating effect of career decision self-efficacy on the relationship between the Five-Factor Model of personality and the career commitment process (i.e., vocational commitment and the tendency to foreclose) in a sample of 785 Chinese graduate students. The multiple regression analyses showed that neuroticism and conscientiousness related significantly to progress in vocational commitment both directly and indirectly through career decision self-efficacy. High agreeableness related to less premature foreclosure. In addition, career decision self-efficacy associated with greater progress in vocational commitment but also a strong tendency to foreclose. The implications for career development theory and practice are discussed.