心理距离与决策者角色对风险决策的影响

采用改编的I0S量表测量自我与他人的心理距离,在收益和损失情境下,综合探讨了为他人和预测他人决策时心理距离对个体风险偏好的影响.结果发现:(1)与他人心理距离越远,个体决策时越偏好风险,且反应时越短;(2)个体预测他人决策时比为他人决策时更偏好风险,但两者反应时没有显著差异;(3)心理距离与决策者角色存在交互作用,即预测时个体认为远心理距离他人比近心理距离他人更冒险,而为他人决策时两者差异消失;(4)决策角色与决策框架、心理距离与决策框架存在交互作用:在收益框架下,自我他人心理距离较远时个体更偏好风险,且个体预测比为他人决策时更冒险,损失条件下无差异.依据相关理论对这些结果进行了分析讨论.     

生涯适应力的作用：个体与组织层的跨层面分析*

生涯适应力(career adaptability)是生涯建构理论提出的自我职业生涯管理的核心概念,但国外理论和实践一直认为生涯适应力是一把双刃剑(生涯适应力高的员工工作绩效高,但其离职意向也高),本研究将对此进行检验;同时,生涯适应力作为个体职业生涯开发的核心变量,它在组织职业生涯管理跨层面作用中的价值也未曾研究。通过员工在两个时间点自评和管理者他评问卷,获得54家单位的485份有效调查问卷。结构方程模型分析的结果表明,生涯适应力不仅与工作绩效有显著正相关,而且也与离职意向有显著负相关。层次回归分析结果表明,工龄是生涯适应力与离职意向、工作绩效关系的调节变量;也就是说,工龄短员工的生涯适应力与工作绩效呈显著正相关,与离职意向呈显著负相关,但工龄长员工的生涯适应力与二者的关系都不显著。基于跨层面研究设计,多层线性模型(HLM)分析的结果表明,生涯适应力是组织职业生涯管理与个体工作绩效之间的完全中介变量,但在组织职业生涯管理与离职意向之间的中介作用不显著。这不但回答了生涯适应力对组织价值的管理困境问题,也解决了组织职业生涯管理与个体工作绩效的连接纽带问题。     

薪酬水平和薪酬差距对企业运营结果影响的元分析

以国内外113篇企业薪酬水平和薪酬差距领域的实证研究(254个效应值, 438880家企业)为样本, 采用基于结构方程模型的元分析方法检验了企业平均薪酬水平、垂直薪酬差距和水平薪酬差距对企业创新、绩效和离职等运营结果的影响。元分析结果显示, 平均薪酬水平不仅能够显著提升企业的创新和绩效水平, 也会抑制企业内部的离职水平; 垂直和水平薪酬差距对企业绩效的主效应并不显著, 但其对企业创新具有显著的抑制作用, 并能够显著提升企业的离职水平。进一步的调节效应检验表明, 国家地域因素调节了薪酬水平与企业绩效之间的关系, 即中国企业的平均薪酬水平对企业绩效的促进作用显著高于美国企业。研究结果对于企业的薪酬管理具有一定的借鉴意义。     

环境条件和兴趣对大学生妥协决策的影响

研究旨在考察个体在选择职业时是否会为了更好的环境条件(组织、城市)而降低对兴趣的要求。对63名大学生被试开展了两个实验,采用在环境条件和兴趣水平上有不同程度差异的职位配对来模拟两难决策。结果发现:(1)对不同组织声望和兴趣水平的职位的选择无性别差异;(2)组织声望差距、组织声望差距与兴趣差距的交互作用能显著预测职位的选择;(3)对不同城市级别和兴趣水平的职位的选择有性别差异,男生比女生更少放弃兴趣;(4)兴趣差距、城市级别差距与兴趣差距的交互作用能预测男生的选择,只有兴趣差距能预测女生的选择。结论:个体会为了更好的环境而或多或少在兴趣方面妥协。     

决策的三参照点理论:从原理到应用

三参照点理论(Tri-Reference Point Theory,Wang,2008a; Wang& Johnson,2012)以底线、现状和目标为参照点,将决策结果空间划分为失败、损失、获益和成功4个功能区域.根据3个参照点的心理权重的排序:底线＞目标＞现状,该模型继而推导出跨越不同区域的以现状为分界的双S-型的价值函数,以及据此产生的对于跨越不同参照点的预期结果的偏好转换、和损失-获益及失败-成功的两种不对称性.总之,风险决策的基本任务在于,在使得达到目标的可能性最大化的同时使底线不保的可能性最小化.三参照点理论将统计学和金融学中的均值与方差(均差)分析与行为决策研究中的参照点效应有机地结合在一起;在面对不同的风险选项时,通过分析各个预期结果的均差分布与3个参照点之间的关系作出适应性的决策.本文介绍了三参照点理论的基本推论、运行原则、实证检验、以及它与期望效用理论和前景理论相比较的异同之处.同时我们也探讨了三参照点理论对实践中管理决策的指导意义和多重启示.     

薪酬预期与选择:基于三参照点理论的验证与探讨

两项实验研究对新近提出的风险决策的三参照点(TRP)理论进行了验证.实验就大学生对就业的薪酬制度的偏好和选择对三参照点理论的独特推断进行了检验.三参照点理论强调决策参照点对预期结果分布的界定作用.人们在决策时不仅会考虑现状(SQ)还会考虑最低要求(MR)和目标(G).MR,SQ和G三个参照点把结果空间分成了四个功能区域:成功、获益、损失和失败.根据三参照点理论,参照点的心理效应为MR＞>G＞SQ.当预期结果的平均值低于MR(或者G)的时候,人们会偏好风险高的选择以增加达到或者超过参照点的可能性;而当预期结果的平均值高于MR(或者G)的时候,人们会偏好风险低的选择以减少低于MR(或者(G)的可能性.实验1中,根据预先测定的大学生群体对第一份工资的最低要求,准确地预测了参与者在高稳定型、高弹性型和中间型三种工资类型的风险偏好和取舍.实验2进一步探讨了MR和G之间的权衡:实验发现当弹性型工资的浮动范围双向超出MR和G(而不是双向非临界)时,人们会优先考虑MR从而使超过G的可能性的吸引力相对降低;而不会为了追求达到G而忽略低于MR的风险.     

基于期望值最大化的理论何时失效：风险决策中为自己-为所有人决策差异的眼动研究

主流的风险决策理论专家发展了一系列基于期望值最大化(expectation-maximization)的理论, 以期捕获所有人的风险决策行为。然而大量证据表明, 这些基于期望值最大化的理论并不能如同描述性理论那样理想地描述单一个体的决策行为。本研究采用眼动追踪技术, 系统考察了个体在为所有人决策与为自己决策时的风险决策行为及信息加工过程的差异。本研究发现, 基于期望值最大化的理论可捕获为所有人决策或为自己多次决策时的情况, 却不能很好捕获个体为自己进行单次决策时的情况。本研究结果有助于理解基于期望值最大化的理论与启发式/非基于期望值最大化的理论的边界, 为风险决策理论的划分和发展提供实证参考。     

薪酬体系框架与考核方式对个人绩效薪酬选择的影响

研究从行为决策视角, 采用情景实验法探讨了薪酬体系框架与绩效考核方式对个人绩效薪酬选择的影响。结果表明：(1)个体根据实际收入水平低于/高于内心预期收入参照点将分别形成损失/收益性的预期收入框架, 在损失性收入框架下选择风险性绩效薪酬的几率更高; (2)底薪加提成的薪酬支付模式会让个体形成收益框架, 薪酬打包的支付模式会让个体形成损失框架, 个体在薪酬打包模式下选择绩效薪酬体系的几率更高; (3)与封闭式目标的考核体系相比, 企业采用开放式目标的绩效考核会抑制预期收入框架和薪酬支付框架对个人绩效薪酬选择的影响。     

“金钱-环境”复合收益的风险决策:价值取向的影响

现实中的环境决策,往往要在多个由"金钱-环境"复合而成的结果间做选择。人们如何对异质复合结果进行评估与选择,是决策研究面临的新课题。本研究着重考察个体金钱取向和环境取向的相对强度对复合收益风险决策的影响。结果表明,无论是采用自陈量表(实验1)或内隐联想测验(实验2)来测量价值取向,还是采用混词造句任务(实验3)来启动价值取向,均发现价值取向相对强度对复合风险决策有显著影响。(1)相比于金钱取向占优的个体,环境取向占优的个体在进行复合风险决策时更偏好环境风险较小的复合选项;(2)在复合选项等价匹配任务中,环境取向占优的个体会赋予复合选项中的环境收益以更高权重,倾向于用更多的金钱收益来弥补环境收益的风险折扣;(3)在复合收益风险概率匹配任务中,环境取向占优的个体更倾向于为获取倍增的环境收益而承担更大的复合收益风险。作为对复合结果风险决策的首次探索,本研究初步回答了不同价值取向的个体在金钱-环境复合风险决策中更倾向于规避什么风险、拿什么冒险以及为什么冒险等问题,为今后进一步开展复合决策研究打下了理论和方法基础。     

动机冲突影响混合跨期决策：趋近-回避动机理论视角

组织与个人面临的许多决策, 既无纯粹获益, 也无纯粹损失, 往往需要同时对未来不同时间点的损益加以权衡, 这类损益兼具的决策称为混合跨期决策。过往研究通常沿用纯粹获益或损失跨期决策的理论框架, 缺乏与混合跨期决策相匹配的理论建构和决策过程探索。基于此, 本研究从趋近-回避动机理论出发, 探索动机冲突影响混合跨期决策的过程机制。研究1拟探讨混合跨期决策中动机冲突特点, 及其与决策行为之间的关系。研究2则计划分别操纵影响动机冲突程度的内源性因素(得失金额的相对差异程度)和外源性因素(资源有限程度), 试图揭示动机冲突程度与混合跨期决策之间的因果链条。研究3拟采用鼠标追踪技术, 基于决策过程指标进一步探索动机冲突影响混合跨期决策的过程机制。我们预期该研究结果有利于从动机冲突视角揭示并建构混合跨期决策的作用机制, 同时也将为涉及混合跨期情境的企业管理和个体消费决策提供科学依据。     

Perceived organizational career management and career adaptability as predictors of success and turnover intention among Chinese employees

Based on the theories of career construction and of social exchange, the current research examined the joint and interactive effects of perceived organizational career management and career adaptability on indicators of career success (i.e., salary and career satisfaction) and work attitudes (i.e., turnover intention) among 654 Chinese employees. The results showed that career adaptability played a unique role in predicting salary after controlling for the effects of demographic variables and perceived organizational career management. It was also found that both perceived organizational career management and career adaptability correlated negatively with turnover intention, with these relationships mediated by career satisfaction. The results further showed that career adaptability moderated the relationship between perceived organizational career management and career satisfaction such that this positive relationship was stronger among employees with a higher level of career adaptability. In support of the hypothesized moderated mediation model, for employees with a higher level of career adaptability, the indirect effect of perceived career management on turnover intention through career satisfaction was stronger. These findings carry implications for research on career success and turnover intention.     

Evolving team cognition: The impact of team situation models on team effectiveness

The current research examined a moderated mediation model for the relationships among indicators of objective career success (salary and job level), subjective career success (career satisfaction), and turnover intention, as well as the boundary conditions of this process. Based on a survey study among a sample of Chinese managers (N = 324), we found that both salary and job level were negatively related to turnover intention, with these relations fully mediated by career satisfaction. The results further showed that the relation between job level and career satisfaction was weaker among managers who perceived a higher level of organizational career management, but stronger among managers with a higher managerial career anchor. In support of our hypothesized model, the indirect effect of job level on turnover intention through career satisfaction existed only among managers who perceived a lower level of organizational career management or managers with a higher managerial career anchor. These findings carry implications for research on career success and turnover intention.     

Effect propensity

In a choice between two options, decision makers can often be roughly divided into three groups: those who strongly prefer the first option, those who strongly prefer the second option, and those whose choices are most sensitive to the specific conditions (Switchers). In any reference state, such as the experimental control, Switchers’ choices are unlikely to be exactly equally divided between the options, which potentially creates a ceiling effect among those most susceptible to influence by the particular conditions or experimental manipulations. The limited growth potential of the option favored by Switchers in the reference state can produce “effect propensity,” whereby any condition or manipulation applied to the reference state is more likely to increase the share of the other option. We test this proposition in a series of studies in the context of choices between safe and risky options and between lower-price/quality and higher-price/quality options. The results indicate that a large majority of conceptually unrelated manipulations tend to increase the choice share of risky and higher-price/quality options. This effect propensity can be reversed when the risky and higher-price/quality options are the status quo alternatives or asymmetrically dominating in the reference state. Alternative explanations for effect propensity are examined. We discuss the implications of effect propensity for the interpretation of research findings, the selection of controls, and theory tests.     

The use of multiple reference points in risky decision making

Among psychologists and economists, prospect theory continues to be one of the most popular models of decision making. The theory's key property is reference dependence; specifically, how an individual's perception of loss or gain is dependent upon their starting point (i.e., the status quo). Although prospect theory is widely accepted, other authors have sought the inclusion of reference points besides the status quo. Initially these extensions focused on the importance of single reference points such as goals. More recently, authors have explained choice data by including multiple reference points within the value function. Multiple‐reference‐point theories generally assume that many choice situations possess an implicit or explicit goal, or point an individual will strive to obtain, and/or a minimum requirement (i.e., a “lower bound”) above which an individual will strive to stay. In two experiments, we present evidence that individuals can utilize the minimum requirement, status quo, and goal within a single risky decision task. Participants most often chose to maximize their chance of reaching reference points even when that decision was riskier, resulted in lower expected value, resulted in lower expected utility, or ran contrary to the predictions of prospect theory. Furthermore, salience and uncertainty moderated the use of goals and minimum requirements as reference points. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identification as an organizational anchor: how identification and job satisfaction combine to predict turnover intention

The article examines the role of organizational identification and job satisfaction in relation to turnover intentions in seven organizations. Two models are proposed in which either job satisfaction or organizational identification was treated as a mediator of the other's relationship with turnover intention. The organizations varied in terms of culture (Japan vs. UK), and institutional domain (academic, business, health, mail, legal). Within each organization, and meta‐analytically combined across the seven samples (N = 1392), organizational identification mediated the relationship between job satisfaction and turnover intention more than job satisfaction mediated the relationship between organizational identification, and turnover intention. Organizational identification also had the larger overall relationship with turnover intention. This pattern remained true when gender, age, type of organization, culture, and length of tenure were accounted for, although the direct relationship between job satisfaction and turnover intention was stronger in private than public organizations and when the ratio of men was higher. The findings are consistent with a social identity theory (SIT) perspective and with the idea that identification is a more proximal predictor of turnover intention. Over and above job satisfaction, organizational identification offers a strong psychological anchor that discourages turnover intention in a range of organizational contexts. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Testing the relationship between three-component organizational/occupational commitment and organizational/occupational turnover intention using a non-recursive model

This study explored the relationship between three-component organizational/occupational commitment and organizational/occupational turnover intention, and the reciprocal relationship between organizational and occupational turnover intention with a non-recursive model in collectivist cultural settings. We selected 177 nursing staffs out of 30 hospitals in Taiwan as our sample, and structural equation modelling analysis was conducted to test our hypotheses. The results showed that normative organizational commitment negatively correlates with organizational turnover intention most strongly, and affective occupational commitment negatively correlates with occupational turnover intention most strongly. Moreover, organizational turnover intention plays a mediating role in the relationship between normative organizational commitment and occupational turnover intention, while occupational turnover intention mediates the relationship between affective occupational commitment and organizational turnover intention. In particular, the reciprocal relationship exists between organizational and occupational turnover intention. Practical implications and suggestions for future research were also discussed.     

Socially oriented values and reciprocity norm predict organizational commitment

The current research concerns the predictors and organizational outcomes of normative commitment in Chinese companies. In Study 1, using a semi-structured interview, we identified internalization of socially oriented value and reciprocity norm as two possible predictors of normative commitment. Survey results confirm the factorial independence of these two predictors. Study 2 examined the predictive relationship of these predictors with employee job satisfaction, turnover intention, in-role performance, and organizational citizenship behaviour (OCB). The results showed that value internalization predicts higher job satisfaction and weaker turnover intentions via normative commitment, whereas reciprocity predicts higher job satisfaction, weaker turnover intention, and more frequent display of OCB via normative commitment. These findings are discussed in terms of their implications for future research and management practices.     

Gain/Loss Asymmetry and Riskless Choice: Loss Aversion in Choices among Job Finalists

Tversky and Kahneman (1991) extended the notions of reference points and gain/loss asymmetry to multiattribute choice tasks having alternatives that cannot be assigned explicit probabilities. Two experiments were designed to test these propositions in the context of choices among job finalists. In the first experiment, undergraduates (N= 82) were provided with attribute information on two job candidates, along with (incomplete) attribute information on a previous job incumbent. The results showed that the relative standing of the job finalists was evaluated from the reference point of the incumbent's performance on the non-missing attributes. Candidates representing the status quo (i.e., no change in performance on the non-missing attributes) were preferred over candidates representing a loss. However, candidates representing a gain were not preferred over candidates representing the status quo. In the second experiment, undergraduates (N= 74) received assessor training and then watched a demonstration of performance in one of two work samples. Participants told that the demonstration was one of excellent performance strongly preferred the status quo candidate (i.e., the one that performed equally well on the demonstration work sample). However, participants told that the example was one of poor performance were indifferent between the status quo and gain candidate. We conclude that the gain/loss asymmetry commonly found in risky choice can also be found in riskless choice tasks such as choosing among job finalists.