基于结构方程模型的多层调节效应

使用多层线性模型进行调节效应分析在社科领域已常有应用。尽管多层线性模型区分了层1自变量的组间和组内效应、实现了多层调节效应的分解, 仍然存在抽样误差和测量误差。建议在多层结构方程模型框架下, 设置潜变量和多指标来有效校正抽样误差和测量误差。在介绍多层调节SEM分析的随机系数预测法和潜调节结构方程法后, 总结出一套多层调节的SEM分析流程, 通过一个例子来演示如何用Mplus软件进行多层调节SEM分析。随后评述了多层调节效应分析方法在国内心理学的应用现状, 并展望了多层结构方程和多层调节研究的拓展方向。     

基于多层结构方程模型的情境效应分析—— 兼与多层线性模型比较

多层(嵌套)数据的变量关系研究, 必须借助多层模型来实现。两层模型中, 层一自变量Xij按组均值中心化, 并将组均值 置于层2截距方程式中, 可将Xij对因变量Yij的效应分解为组间和组内部分, 二者之差被称为情境效应, 称为情境变量。多层结构方程模型(MSEM)将多层线性模型(MLM)和结构方程模型(SEM)相结合, 通过设置潜变量和多指标的方法校正了MLM在情境效应分析中出现的抽样误差和测量误差, 同时解决了数据的多层(嵌套)结构和潜变量的估计问题。除了分析原理的说明, 还以班级平均竞争氛围对学生竞争表现的情境效应为例进行分析方法的示范, 并比较MSEM和MLM的异同, 随后展望了MSEM情境效应模型、情境效应无偏估计方法和情境变量研究的拓展方向。     

基于结构方程模型的多层中介效应分析

近年社科领域常见使用多层线性模型进行多层中介研究。尽管多层线性模型区分了多层中介的组间和组内效应, 仍然存在抽样误差和测量误差。比较好的方法是, 将多层线性模型整合到结构方程模型中, 在多层结构方程模型框架下设置潜变量和多指标, 可有效校正抽样误差和测量误差、得到比较准确的中介效应值, 还能适用于更多种类的多层中介分析并提供模型的拟合指数。在介绍新方法后, 总结出一套多层中介的分析流程, 通过一个例子来演示如何用MPLUS软件进行多层中介分析。最后展望了多层结构方程和多层中介研究的拓展方向。     

贝叶斯结构方程模型及其研究现状

在心理学研究中结构方程模型(Structural Equation Modeling, SEM)被广泛用于检验潜变量间的因果效应, 其估计方法有频率学方法(如, 极大似然估计)和贝叶斯方法两类。近年来由于贝叶斯统计的流行及其在结构方程建模中易于处理小样本、缺失数据及复杂模型等方面的优势, 贝叶斯结构方程模型发展迅速, 但其在国内心理学领域的应用不足。主要介绍了贝叶斯结构方程模型的方法基础和优良特性, 及几类常用的贝叶斯结构方程模型及其应用现状, 旨在为应用研究者介绍新的研究工具。     

探索性结构方程建模(ESEM):EFA和CFA的整合

探索性结构方程建模(ESEM)是在测量模型部分使用了类似于EFA模型的SEM.作为一种高级统计方法,ESEM整合了EFA和CFA两种因子分析方法的功能和优点.通过ESEM,研究者既可以灵活地探索因子结构,又可以系统地验证因子模型,为潜变量的关系分析提供更适宜的测量模型.ESEM已经在某些社科领域的研究中得到应用,是一种值得推介的因子分析方法.ESEM的具体应用问题,例如因子旋转方法的选用、测验信度评价等,仍有待探讨.     

结构方程模型的应用及分析策略

差不多所有心理、教育、社会等概念,均难以直接准确测量,结构方程（SEM,Struc－tulalEquationModelling）提供一个处理测量误差的方法,采用多个指标去反映潜在变量,也令估计整个模型因子间关系,较传统回归方法更为准确合理。本文主要用一系列有关学习动机的虚拟例子,指出每个问题的主要分析策略,以展示SEM在教育及心理学可以应用的研究范畴。文内探讨的方法包括：验证性因素、高阶因子、路径及因果分析、多时段（multiwave）设计、单形模型（SimpleModel）、及多组比较等。     

潜变量交互效应分析方法

简要回顾了分析显变量交互效应的常用方法。详细讨论了目前分析潜变量交互效应的主要方法,包括用潜变量的因子得分做回归分析、分组线性结构方程模型分析、加入乘积项的结构方程模型分析和两步最小二乘回归分析,并比较和评价了这些方法的优缺点。最后归纳了潜变量交互效应分析方法的研究趋势,并介绍了新近进展(包括LMS方法和GAPI方法)。     

形成性测量模型：结构方程模型的新视角

形成性测量模型(Formative Model, FM)是指标变异导致潜变量变异的模型, 反映性测量模型(Reflective Model, RM)是潜变量变异导致指标变异的模型。FM在模型界定、识别和估计、信效度评价以及模型应用等方面均与RM存在极大的不同。模型界定错误会使参数估计发生偏差, 影响统计结论的有效性, 应当审慎考虑指标和潜变量之间的关系, 选择恰当的测量模型。进一步揭示两者的区别和误用带来的偏差, 完善FM的识别和估计、信效度评价方法、对变量含义的解释以及高阶FM的理论解释和模型估计是未来的研究方向。     

一种新的统计方法和研究思路——结构方程建模述评

结构方程建模(SEM)是一种新的统计方法和研究思路,近年来在心理学和社会科学领域的应用日益增多。本文在非数学化的基础上,结合心理学研究实例介绍了SEM的渊源、发展、基本概念、分析过程以及相应的计算机统计软件LI-SREL。本文认为SEM有四大优点:①引进潜变量使研究更为深入,②遵循一般线性模式进行验证型分析,使研究更有意义,③妥善处理多变量间的复杂关系,④模型具有参数不变性。SEM应该引起国内心理学界的重视。     

基于结构方程模型的有调节的中介效应分析

有调节的中介模型是中介过程受到调节变量影响的模型。指出了目前有调节的中介效应分析普遍存在的问题：当前有调节的中介效应检验大多使用多元线性回归分析,忽略了测量误差;而基于结构方程模型(SEM)的有调节的中介效应分析需要产生乘积指标,又会面临乘积指标生成和乘积项非正态分布的问题。在简介潜调节结构方程(LMS)方法后,建议使用LMS方法得到偏差校正的bootstrap置信区间来进行基于SEM的有调节的中介效应分析。总结出一个有调节的中介SEM分析流程,并有示例和相应的Mplus程序。文末展望了LMS和有调节的中介模型的发展方向。     

Psychosocial Predictors of Health Status and Health Care Costs among People with Fibromyalgia

The purpose of the present study was to examine the effects of psychosocial characteristics on health status and the relationship between health status and health care use and costs in a group of people with fibromyalgia (FMS) over a 1-year period. The participants were 600 members of a large health maintenance organization. Demographic characteristics (age, education, employment status, ethnicity and income), need variables (comorbid conditions and baseline health status), and psychosocial variables (self-efficacy, helplessness, coping, and depression) were examined. Better health status at baseline, use of emotion-focused coping, and higher self-efficacy predicted better health status the following year. Higher health care use at baseline, being Caucasian, being older, and having more co-morbid conditions predicted higher health care use at 1 year. Only health care costs at baseline predicted health care costs the following year. Our results indicate that health care use and cost tend to be stable. Intense interventions focused on changing patterns of health care use and methods for coping with the change need to be developed and tested.     

Multi-objective combinatorial optimization problems: A survey

In the last 20 years many multi-objective linear programming (MOLP) methods with continuous variables have been developed. However, in many real-world applications discrete variables must be introduced. It is well known that MOLP problems with discrete variables can have special difficulties and so cannot be solved by simply combining discrete programming methods and multi-objective programming methods. The present paper is intended to review the existing literature on multi-objective combinatorial optimization (MOCO) problems. Various classical combinatorial problems are examined in a multi-criteria framework. Some conclusions are drawn and directions for future research are suggested.     

Relations among functional systems in behavior analysis

This paper proposes that an organism's integrated repertoire of operant behavior has the status of a biological system, similar to other biological systems, like the nervous, cardiovascular, or immune systems. Evidence from a number of sources indicates that the distinctions between biological and behavioral events is often misleading, engendering counterproductive explanatory controversy. A good deal of what is viewed as biological (often thought to be inaccessible or hypothetical) can become publicly measurable variables using currently available and developing technologies. Moreover, such endogenous variables can serve as establishing operations, discriminative stimuli, conjoint mediating events, and maintaining consequences within a functional analysis of behavior and need not lead to reductionistic explanation. I suggest that explanatory misunderstandings often arise from conflating different levels of analysis and that behavior analysis can extend its reach by identifying variables operating within a functional analysis that also serve functions in other biological systems.     

亲子关系对贫困儿童问题行为的影响

以247名贫困儿童为被试进行问卷调查,构建家庭社会经济地位和亲子关系对贫困儿童问题行为的多重中介模型,得到抑郁、自我控制的中介作用。结果显示,亲子关系和社会经济地位分别通过中介路径影响贫困儿童问题行为,与亲子关系有关的中介路径为91.25%,与抑郁有关的中介效应为57.60%,与自我控制有关的中介效应为57.15%. 结论：良好的亲子关系或成为贫困儿童的保护因子;应关注贫困儿童心理健康,增加有效心理疏导机制;注重培养贫困儿童的自我控制能力。     

Differences or deficits? The significance of pretend and sociodramatic play

The developmental significance of pretend and sociodramatic play remains unresolved. Quite possibly, such play experiences facilitate a range of developmental competences which other experiences (including focused training) can facilitate equally effectively. If this were so, individual differences in such forms of play need not be a matter of direct concern in themselves. Such differences could be related to proximate variables which would be of greater scientific significance than broader or vaguer social class labels, although the political and economic realities of socioeconomic status should not be forgotten.     

粗糙集和神经网络在心理测量中的应用

探讨当因素分析和多元回归方法的使用条件未得到满足时,是否可采用粗糙集方法进行观察变量的精简,以及是否可采用神经网络方法进行预测效度检验。理论分析了粗糙集和神经网络在心理测量中应用的可能性,并运用粗糙集对于人事干部胜任力评估数据进行分析,比较了7种离散化方法和2种约简算法构成的14种组合,发现当采用Manual方法进行离散化、遗传算法进行约简时,能够很好地对观测变量进行精简;运用概率神经网络能够比等级回归方法更好地进行预测效度检验。研究结果表明对于处理心理测量中的非等距变量,粗糙集和神经网络是非常有用的方法     

追踪研究在组织行为学中的应用

追踪研究是一种通过引入时滞, 以探索变量动态变化趋势和变量之间相互关系的调查研究方法。近年来, 在组织行为学中, 追踪研究越来越受到学者们的关注, 追踪研究成果也在逐渐增加, 但是大多数研究者尤其是国内研究者, 对追踪研究尚缺乏全面正确的认识。追踪研究设计可以依照重复测量之间的时间间隔长短进行分类, 不同的类型对应不同的样本量、调查方式和统计分析方法, 未来可以拓展追踪研究在团队和领导力、组织文化和变革以及员工激励等方面的应用, 或开展跨文化的追踪研究。     

Subjective perception of health in elderly inpatients

There is evidence that subjective health is an important variable in general health outcomes. It can be an indicator of the individual's overall health status, creating a reliable and valid estimate about health. Quality of life (QoL) assessment can be associated with the individuals' subjective assessment of their own health status. The aim of the present study was to investigate variables associated with subjective perception of health in older inpatients. Ninety elderly inpatients over 60 years old were interviewed. The perception of health assessment (healthy/unhealthy) allocated elders in either of two groups. All the elders answered sociodemographic questions, the WHOQOL-100 and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI). Comparing the group that considered themselves unhealthy to the other group, the former showed a tendency of worse QoL assessments in five out of six domains investigated. Significant differences were found for the physical and level of independence domains, as well as overall QoL. There was a significant association between health perception and lower intensity of depressive symptoms, as well as better QoL perception in the level of independence domain. This study shows the existence of an association between depressive symptoms and health assessment. It also suggests that the independence dimension is important in the elders' perception of their health status. These findings can help identify cause-effect relations between variables in aging studies involving health indicators and bring new intervention proposals for the elderly.     

Risk factors for male-to-female partner psychological abuse

We review the risk and protective factors for male-to-female partner psychological abuse. The conclusions that can be drawn from this review were limited by the small body of research. However, it does appear that partner psychological aggression/abuse may be more difficult to predict than partner physical aggression/abuse. In general, socio-economic status (SES) variables do not appear to significantly increase risk. Certain relationship variables, including communication patterns, marital adjustment, and attachment were significantly associated with psychological aggression, with moderate to strong effect sizes. However, these associations are difficult to interpret, because these relationship variables exhibit a high degree of conceptual and operational overlap with the psychological aggression. Two main directions can be derived from this review. First and foremost, definitional issues must be resolved. Given that partner emotional abuse, unlike physical or sexual abuse, is typically conceptualized as requiring a pervasive pattern rather than a single salient action, reliable and valid assessment is exceedingly challenging. Second, once definitional issues are resolved, etiological and intervention models can be developed and tested. This review indicates that men's personality and couple factors would be the most fruitful areas from which to start.     

The prediction of intelligence in preschool children using alternative models to regression

Statistical prediction of an outcome variable using multiple independent variables is a common practice in the social and behavioral sciences. For example, neuropsychologists are sometimes called upon to provide predictions of preinjury cognitive functioning for individuals who have suffered a traumatic brain injury. Typically, these predictions are made using standard multiple linear regression models with several demographic variables (e.g., gender, ethnicity, education level) as predictors. Prior research has shown conflicting evidence regarding the ability of such models to provide accurate predictions of outcome variables such as full-scale intelligence (FSIQ) test scores. The present study had two goals: (1) to demonstrate the utility of a set of alternative prediction methods that have been applied extensively in the natural sciences and business but have not been frequently explored in the social sciences and (2) to develop models that can be used to predict premorbid cognitive functioning in preschool children. Predictions of Stanford–Binet 5 FSIQ scores for preschool-aged children is used to compare the performance of a multiple regression model with several of these alternative methods. Results demonstrate that classification and regression treesprovided more accurate predictions of FSIQ scores than does the more traditional regression approach. Implications of these results are discussed.