Contrast,inference and scientific realism

The thesis of underdetermination presents a major obstacle to the epistemological claims of scientific realism. That thesis is regularly assumed in the philosophy of science, but is puzzlingly at odds with the actual history of science, in which empirically adequate theories are thin on the ground. We propose to advance a case for scientific realism which concentrates on the process of scientific reasoning rather than its theoretical products. Developing an account of causal–explanatory inference will make it easier to resist the thesis of underdetermination. For, if we are not restricted to inference to the best explanation only at the level of major theories, we will be able to acknowledge that there is a structure in data sets which imposes serious constraints on possible theoretical alternatives. We describe how Differential Inference, a form of inference based on contrastive explanation, can be used in order to generate causal hypotheses. We then go on to consider how experimental manipulation of differences can be used to achieve Difference Closure, thereby confirming claims of causal efficacy and also eliminating possible confounds. The model of Differential Inference outlined here shows at least one way in which it is possible to ‘reason from the phenomena’.     

An “intelligent” program to teach logical thinking skills

An “intelligent” program was developed on a microcomputer to help students improve their logical reasoning skills. The program is based on the popular two-person game of “Mastermind” and provides feedback for less than optimal performance. In addition to playing the game with a student, the program checks to see if he or she is using all available information. If not, the program indicates the information that is being overlooked. High performance at successive levels of difficulty produces reliable improvement on equivalent forms of standardized tests of logical thinking skills.     

Emergence of Concrete Operational Concepts

In Piagetian and neo-Piagetian literature, there have been conflicting results of experiments made to predict the order in which the concrete operational concepts of Class Inclusion, Transitive Inference, and Conservation emerge in a child. The present study determined the order in which these concepts emerged among 94 male and 84 female Canadian children between the ages of 5 and 7 (N = 178). Overall results indicated that Class Inclusion emerged first, followed by Transitive Inference, and then Conservation. This was the pattern for 6-year-olds, whereas 5- and 7-year-olds performed Class Inclusion and Transitive Inference at the same level of efficiency. Thus, it is apparent that Class Inclusion is generally the easiest concept to be attained, and Conservation is the most difficult. This study also indicates that the order of emergence varies and depends on the background and previous experience of the subjects.     

Computing the von Neumann-Morgenstern characteristic functionυ(S) for cooperativen-person transferable utility normal form games: LP and saddlepoint solutions

An APL computer program is described for computing the von Neumann-Morgensterncharacteristic function of cooperativen-person transferable utility games in normal form. The program is designed to stand alone, or it can be used in conjunction with other programs for game theoretic computation that will be introduced in future articles.     

Entraînement à la prise de décision avec un serious gaming : délibération et conflits de valeurs

This research analyzes the use of serious gaming (simulator of helicopter) in a management training program for executives. We have observed 16 game sessions and interviewed 44 volunteer participants from the same company through this training program. We have identified few sparring matches between executives, mostly concerning the tasks commanded. The discussion is based on the “how to do” and not on the pursued purposes even when the instructions are ethically questionable. From the theoretical and methodological frame of the psychosociology of the work perspective (Lhuilier, 2013), our analysis highlighted the lack even the absence of collective deliberation before the decision-making process and their modalities in game experience and in real work, after the training program.     

Laws,the Inference Problem,and Uninstantiated Universals

The difficulties facing Humean regularity accounts of laws have led some philosophers to a theory that takes laws to be necessitation relations between universals. In this paper I evaluate David Armstrong's version of this theory by considering two of its key elements: its solution to the so‐called “Inference Problem” and its denial of uninstantiated universals. After considering some potential problems with each of these elements on their own, I argue that Armstrong's solution to the Inference Problem and his denial of uninstantiated universals are not two independent aspects of his view. His solution to the Inference Problem depends upon his denial of uninstantiated universals.     

Does playing blindfold chess reduce the quality of game: comments on chabris and hearst (2003)

Blindfold chess is a special type of chess game where both the board and pieces are not visible to its players. This paper aims to determine whether the quality of the game played blindfolded is lower than when played under normal conditions. The best chess program was used to analyze games played by the world's top Grandmasters under both conditions. We have analyzed the Monaco 1993–1998 data set introduced by Chabris and Hearst (2003) . The results showed that although a larger number of mistakes occurred while playing blindfolded, no significant statistical difference between the rapid and blindfold games has been found. Nevertheless, by applying the same methodology to the Monaco 2002–2007 data set a substantial difference between the blindfold and the rapid chess game was noticed. In this paper, we have addressed the possible improvement of the chess game quality and the advances in chess programs that may be responsible for detecting more blunders.     

A computerized simulation for investigating gambling behavior during roulette play

The present paper describes a computerized roulette program for the conducting of psychological research on gambling behavior. The program was designed to simulate an actual roulette game found in casinos and gambling riverboats throughout North America. The roulette program collects detailed trial-by-trial data on player/participant behavior that can easily be transferred into data analysis and graphics programs. This multimedia simulation was designed in the Visual Basic programming language, and it is capable of running on any IBM-compatible personal computer running the Windows 2000 or higher operating system.     

A computerized simulation for investigating gambling behavior during roulette play.

The present paper describes a computerized roulette program for the conducting of psychological research on gambling behavior. The program was designed to simulate an actual roulette game found in casinos and gambling riverboats throughout North America. The roulette program collects detailed trial-by-trial data on player/participant behavior that can easily be transferred into data analysis and graphics programs. This multimedia simulation was designed in the Visual Basic programming language, and it is capable of running on any IBM-compatible personal computer running the Windows 2000 or higher operating system.     

The use of PowerPoint shareware for making Jeopardy!--type games in the teaching of psychology

We describe the use of readily available templates to create a Jeopardy!--type game using PowerPoint slides suitable for psychology courses. The templates can accommodate information from any psychology class and can easily be used to incorporate languages other than English. A major limitation of the templates is that they are only available as shareware on internet sites and the links to such sites can be unreliable. To avoid this problem we present our own template. Differences between the shareware and our own program are noted, as are ways to use the game to stimulate interest in psychology.     

心理旋转训练对5~6岁儿童空间能力和数学能力的影响

采用2（时间：前测/后测）×2（分组：实验组/控制组）的两因素混合实验设计,考察心理旋转游戏训练对5~6岁儿童空间及数学能力的影响。基于心理旋转的可塑性以及空间能力与数学能力之间的密切关系设计心理旋转干预方案,将36名被试分为实验组和控制组进行为期8周共24次的干预研究。研究结果表明：（1）空间能力与数学能力之间显著正相关;（2）心理旋转游戏有效地提高了5~6岁儿童的空间能力和数学能力,该训练方案具有良好的即时效果。     

STACKING THE DECK: TEACHING SOCIAL SKILLS TO RETARDED ADULTS WITH A MODIFIED TABLE GAME

This study developed and evaluated a social skills training program for institutionalized mildly or moderately retarded and dually diagnosed individuals. Social skills were conceptualized as requiring an action or reaction within six skill areas: compliments, social interactions, politeness, criticism, social confrontation, and questions/answers. The program taught social skills using a commercially available table game, Sorry, and a specially designed card deck. Each card represented one of the skill areas and was designed to train either an actor or reactor response. The program featured response specific feedback, self-monitoring, individualized reinforcers, and individualized performance criterion levels. A multiple baseline across two groups (N = 3 per group) revealed that the game contingencies increased social skills in all targeted areas. After training, the subjects displayed their newly learned skills at or above their trained levels in two different settings with novel persons present. Although untargeted, the complexity of the subjects' responses increased across conditions, since there was a steady increase in the number of words they used per response. The program appears to be a viable means of training social skills since it uses standardized training procedures, requires only one facilitator, and is in itself a social situation that may encourage interactions with peers, cooperation, competition, and politeness.     

A PDP-11/45 program for playing n-person characteristic function games

NPER II is an on-line PDP-11/45 computer program for studying bargaining and coalition formation processes within the framework of n-person games in characteristic function form. The extensive vocabulary of the program and its mode of operation are presented nontechnically, followed by an examination of a protocol from a sample four-person game. Improvements over a previous version of the program and applications to other experimental paradigms investigating coalition formation and bargaining are discussed in the last two sections of the paper.     

Game Theory and Rational Decision

In its classical conception, game theory aspires to be a determinate decision theory for games, understood as elements of a structurally specified domain. Its aim is to determine for each game in the domain a complete solution to each player's decision problem, a solution valid for all real-world instantiations, regardless of context. “Permissiveness” would constrain the theory to designate as admissible for a player any conjecture consistent with the function's designation of admissible strategies for the other players. Given permissiveness and other appropriate constraints, solution sets must contain only Nash equilibria and at least one pure-strategy equilibrium, and there is no solution to games in which no symmetry invariant set of pure-strategy equilibria forms a Cartesian product. These results imply that the classical program is unrealizable. Moreover, the program is implicitly committed to permissiveness, through its common-knowledge assumptions and its commitment to equilibrium. The resulting incoherence deeply undermines the classical conception in a way that consolidates a long series of contextualist criticisms. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Professional handball coaches management of players' situated understanding during official games

ObjectivesThis study, based on the team cognition approach, investigated the information content expressed by coaches when helping players build or update their understanding of the unfolding game. The focus was on how this content fits into the usual task-work/teamwork and procedural/declarative taxonomies.DesignThe data were collected through the audio and video recording of the communications and behaviors of three professional head coaches throughout a total of 15 games. We used deductive content analysis, crossing information contents related to task-work or teamwork with information contents related to declarative or procedural knowledge across the five game periods (first and second half of the first and second half-time, break-time period), and the three score differentials between the teams (favorable, balanced, and unfavorable).MethodWe first performed a multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) using a 5 (Game Periods) × 3 (Score Difference) factorial design. Follow-up ANOVAs with repeated-measures were performed to identify the variables contributing to the multivariate effect. We then performed a repeated-measures analysis of variance for information contents related to declarative and procedural knowledge in occurrences of task-work and teamwork categories.ResultsThe results showed that the coaches expressed information related more often to players' procedural knowledge than to their declarative knowledge. We discovered two main effects (game periods and score differences) in coaches' information contents delivered to players. Information related to procedural knowledge was not addressed to the team as a whole, but to certain players.ConclusionsThis suggests that an information flow was more distributed than shared.     

Computer controlled research on bargaining and coalition formation

Described in this paper is a research paradigm, written as a set of computer programs, to conduct on-line bargaining and coalition formation experiments within the characteristic function game framework. The structure of the paradigm is outlined, an example is presented and discussed, and further extensions of the program are briefly discussed.     

Rawls, the difference principle, and economic inequality

Rawls's theory of justice has been criticized for allowing individuals by their own voluntary choice to make themselves members of the 'least advantaged' class and thereby eligible, albeit undeservedly, for the benefits mandated by the Difference Principle. I argue, first, that this criticism overlooks the fact that the Difference Principle applies only to the lifetime expectations of representative persons and, second, that it is possible to implement the Difference Principle (and the social minimum) through policies that do not create work disincentives or require making objectionable moral judgments about who is and who is not deserving of assistance.     

Effects of a Summer Treatment Program on Functional Sports Outcomes in Young Children with ADHD

Participation in youth sports can be very beneficial, but children with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) may participate less often and less successfully. The current study evaluated functional sports outcomes for children with ADHD who attended an intensive behavioral treatment program that included a sports training component, and it compared outcomes to children with ADHD who did not attend the program. Results suggest that treatment resulted in significant improvements in many aspects of children’s sports functioning, including knowledge of game rules, in vivo game performance, and fundamental skill tasks (motor proficiency, ability to trap a soccer ball appropriately, reduced handball penalties in soccer, and improved ability to catch a baseball). Parents also reported improved sports skills and good sportsmanship in the treatment group. No differences between groups were evident on additional skill tasks evaluating accurately kicking a soccer ball, throwing a baseball, or hitting a baseball off a tee. These results suggest intensive behavioral intervention that includes sports training can significantly improve functional sports outcomes for young children with ADHD.     

Teaching social skills to emotionally disturbed adolescent inpatients

A social skills training program was evaluated with emotionally disturbed adolescent inpatients. The targeted social skills required an action or reaction within six skill areas. The program was adapted from a commercially available social skills training game that features the use of response specific feedback, self-monitoring, individualized reinforcers, and individualized performance criteria. A peer conducted the baseline and posttraining sessions while the training was conducted by an adult who had no previous interactive history with the subjects. A multiple baseline design across groups demonstrated that the program increased appropriate responding in all skill areas and that these effects generalized during the posttraining peer conducted sessions. A generalization test indicated that the subjects used their newly learned skills with a novel adult outside the training setting. The program appears quite applicable to emotionally disturbed adolescents since it targets skills in a variety of areas and employs standardized procedures to enhance replicability.     

Confidence in judgments based on incomplete information: An investigation using both hypothetical and real gambles

This study assessed how confidence in judgments is affected by the need to make inferences about missing information. Subjects indicated their likelihood of taking each of a series of gambles based on both probability and payoff information or only one of these sources of information. They also rated their confidence in each likelihood judgment. Subjects in the Explicit Inference condition were asked to explicitly estimate the values of missing information before making their responses while subjects in the Implicit Inference condition were not. The manner in which probability information was framed was also manipulated. Experiment 1 employed hypothetical gambles and Experiment 2 employed gambles with real money. Expressed likelihood of taking gambles was higher when probability was phrased in terms of '% chance of winning' rather than '% chance of losing', but this difference was somewhat less with real gambles than with hypothetical gambles. Confidence ratings in each experiment were actually higher on incomplete information trials than on complete information trials in the Explicit Inference condition. Results were related to the general issue of confidence in judgments.