A multinomial model of event-based prospective memory

Prospective memory is remembering to perform an action in the future. The authors introduce the 1st formal model of event-based prospective memory, namely, a multinomial model that includes 2 separate parameters related to prospective memory processes. The 1st measures preparatory attentional processes, and the 2nd measures retrospective memory processes. The model was validated in 4 experiments. Manipulations of instructions to place importance on either the prospective memory task or the background task (Experiments 1 and 2) and manipulations of distinctiveness of prospective memory targets (Experiment 2) had expected effects on model parameters, as did a manipulation of the difficulty of prospective memory target encoding (Experiments 3 and 4). An alternative model was also evaluated.     

A multinomial model for short-term priming in word identification.

A simple multinomial model for short-term priming in perceptual word identification is presented. In the experiments to which the model is applied, prime words are presented just prior to a flashed target word, and subjects must decide which of 2 alternative words matches the target. The model assumes that on some proportion of trials, confusion among the words leads to the decision being based on 1 of the prime words instead of the target. In addition, it is assumed that subjects sometimes discount a prime that matches 1 of the test alternatives and so choose the alternative that does not match. With these assumptions, the model fits the data from 5 experiments (including 4 used to develop the model known as ROUSE [responding optimally with unknown sources of evidence]; D. E. Huber, R. Shiffrin, K. Lyle, & K. Ruys, 2001). The multinomial model fits the data about as well as the ROUSE model and so should lead to further development and critical testing of both models.     

A measure of needs to assess the stimulus characteristics of TAT cards

Summary: The stimulus demands of TAT cards were evaluated by means of a TAT-Adjective Rating Scale. Seventeen needs were measured through adjective ratings. Mean needs were reported for 191 males and 85 females. Variability was used to develop a measure of stimulus ambiguity. Also investigated was (a) the partitioning of variance for subjects, cards, needs and their interactions, and (b) sex differences were evaluated by means of analysis of variance.     

A multinomial processing tree model for degradation and redintegration in immediate recall

When items are presented for immediate recall, a verbal trace is formed and degrades quickly, becoming useless after about 2 sec. The span for items such as digits equals the number of items that canbe pronounced in the available time. The length of the items affects span by affecting pronunciation rate. Other properties, such as phonological similarity and lexicality, can affect span without affecting pronunciation rate. These properties change the trace's useful lifetime by affecting redintegration. An analogy is drawn between trace reconstruction and repair of errors in speech. When a trace is degraded, one process attempts to form a phoneme string, and another process attempts to form a word. The two processes are autonomous and can be selectively influenced by lexicality and phonological similarity. The resulting processing tree models make simple predictions that depend on whether or not the influenced processes are sequential. The results are illustrated with data from experiments by Besner and Davelaar (1982).     

A parallel-process model of mental rotation

It is argued that some of the phenomena identified with analog processes by Shepard can be understood as resulting from a parallel-process algorithm running on a processor having many individual processing elements and a restricted communication structure. In particular, an algorithm has been developed and implemented which models human behavior on Shepard's object rotation and comparison task. The algorithm exhibits computation times which increase linearly with the angle of rotation. Shepard found a similar linear function in his experiments with human subjects. In addition, the intermediate states of the computation are such that if the rotation process were to be interrupted at any point, the object representation would correspond to that of the actual object at a position along the rotation trajectory. The computational model presented here is governed by three constraining assumptions: (a) that it be parallel: (b) that the communication between processors be restricted to immediate neighbors: (c) that the object representation be distributed across a large fraction of the available processors. A method of diagnosing the correct axis of rotation is also presented.     

Behavioral shifts after a fatal rapid transit accident: A multinomial logit model

The Washington, DC Metrorail collision in 2009 presents a rare opportunity to study rapid transit passengers’ responses to a highly publicized rail incident entailing injuries and fatalities. To investigate behavioral responses to the accident, particularly mode shifts, we conducted a web-based survey of approximately 300 commuters traveling on Metrorail after the accident who had used Metrorail in the 6 months prior to the collision. The most common response to the accident was avoidance of the first and last train cars. Some respondents substituted some Metrorail trips with other modes or took fewer Metrorail trips. To investigate factors influencing these behavioral responses, we employ multinomial logit models to explore the statistical association between respondent and travel characteristics and the choice among the options of (1) making no changes, (2) avoiding certain seating locations, (3) changing modes of transportation, and (4) changing both seating locations and modes of transportation. Results suggest that travel inertia, specifically mode inertia, exists, in that respondents generally prefer not to make mode or travel choice changes. However, some mode characteristics, such as cost differences and frequent delays have a statistically significant association with mode switching. Gender and the presence of children in the household correlate with the option selected.     

Measures to assess maladaptive variants of the five-factor model

The five-factor model (FFM) is the predominant dimensional model of general personality structure. A considerable body of research supports the hypothesis that personality disorders can be conceptualized as extreme or maladaptive variants of the domains and facets of the FFM. However, existing measures of the FFM are confined largely to the normal variants. The purpose of this special section of the Journal of Personality Assessment is to provide the development and initial validation of self-report inventory scales to assess obsessive-compulsive, borderline, narcissistic, avoidant, and dependent personality traits from the perspective of the FFM, which complement the similarly constructed existing measures for psychopathic, histrionic, and schizotypal personality traits.     

A componential model for mental addition

A componential model capable of representing simple and complex forms of mental addition was proposed and then tested by using chronometric techniques. A sample of 23 undergraduate students responded to 800 addition problems in a true-false reaction time paradigm. The 800 problems comprised 200 problems of each of four types: two single-digit addends, one single- and one double-digit addend, two double-digit addends, and three single-digit addends. The results revealed that the columnwise product of addends, a structural variable consistent with a memory network retrieval process, was the best predictor of mental addition for each of the four types of problem. Importantly, the componential model allowed estimation of effects of several other structural variables, e.g., carrying to the next column and speed of encoding of digits. High levels of explained variance verified the power of the model to represent the reaction time data, and the stability of estimates across types of problem implied consistent component use by subjects. Implications for research on mental addition are discussed.     

The exchangeable multinomial model as an approach to testing deterministic axioms of choice and measurement

The multinomial (Dirichlet) model, derived from de Finetti's concept of exchangeability, is proposed as a general Bayesian framework to test axioms on data, in particular, deterministic axioms characterizing theories of choice or measurement. For testing, the proposed framework does not require a deterministic axiom to be cast in a probabilistic form (e.g., casting deterministic transitivity as weak stochastic transitivity). The generality of this framework is demonstrated through empirical tests of 16 different axioms, including transitivity, consequence monotonicity, segregation, additivity of joint receipt, stochastic dominance, coalescing, restricted branch independence, double cancellation, triple cancellation, and the Thomsen condition. The model generalizes many previously proposed methods of axiom testing under measurement error, is analytically tractable, and provides a Bayesian framework for the random relation approach to probabilistic measurement (J. Math. Psychol. 40 (1996) 219). A hierarchical and nonparametric generalization of the model is discussed.     

Using the conditional grade-of-membership model to assess judgment accuracy

Consider the case whereJ instruments are used to classify each ofI objects relative toK nominal categories. The conditional grade-of-membership (GoM) model provides a method of estimating the classification probabilities of each instrument (or judge) when the objects being classified consist of both pure types that lie exclusively in one ofK nominal categories, and mixtures that lie in more than one category. Classification probabilities are identifiable whenever the sample of GoM vectors includes pure types from each category. When additional, relatively mild, assumptions are made about judgment accuracy, the identifiable correct classification probabilities are the greatest lower bounds among all solutions that might correspond to the observed multinomial process, even when the unobserved GoM vectors do not include pure types from each category. Estimation using the conditional GoM model is illustrated on a simulated data set. Further simulations show that the estimates of the classification probabilities are relatively accurate, even when the sample contains only a small percentage of approximately pure objects.The authors thank Max A. Woodbury, Kenneth G. Manton and H. Dennis Tolley for their help and four anonymous Psychometrika reviewers (including an associate editor) for their beneficial expository and technical suggestions. This work was supported by the Dean's Fund for Summer Research, Owen Graduate School of Management, Vanderbilt University.     

The multinomial model of prospective memory: validity of ongoing-task parameters

The objective of this research was to provide additional experimental validation of the multinomial processing tree (MPT) model of event-based prospective memory (Smith & Bayen, 2004). In particular, the parameters that measure trial-type detection in the ongoing task were examined. In three experiments with different response instructions, event-based prospective memory tasks were embedded in ongoing color-matching tasks. The results support the validity of the MPT model, that is, manipulations of ongoing-task difficulty affected the ongoing-task parameters of the MPT model, while leaving the estimates for the prospective and the retrospective components of prospective memory unaffected.     

An alternate-form instrument to assess vividness and controllability of mental imagery in seven modalities

A review of the literature concerning assessment of the ability to produce mental images demonstrated that in both the clinical and research areas new instruments were needed. The problem was to produce an alternate-form measure that would enable simultaneous measurement of controllability and vividness on the same test items in seven modalities. The results seem to suggest that for the Survey of Mental Imagery alternate forms are strictly comparable, reliable, have a known factor structure, and combine simultaneous measurement of controllability and vividness in at least six sensory modalities.     

A multinomial modeling approach to dissociate different components of the truth effect

The subjective impression that statements are true increases when statements are presented repeatedly. There are two sources for this truth effect: An increase in validity based on recollection (a controlled process) and increase in processing fluency due to repeated exposure (an automatic process). Using multinomial processing trees (MPT), we present a comprehensive model of the truth effect. Furthermore, we show that whilst the increase in processing fluency is indeed automatic, the interpretation and use of that experience is not. Experiment 1 demonstrates the standard use of the fluency experience and Experiment 2 demonstrates that people can change the interpretation of the experience according to its ecological validity. By implication, the truth effect represents the adaptive usage of feedback received from internal processes.     

一种基于多阶认知诊断模型测评科学素养的方法

科学素养是指作为一名有反思意识的公民所具有的解决科学问题和运用科学理念的能力。为实现在认知诊断中对科学素养的测评, 本文基于PISA 2015科学素养测评框架首次提出科学素养包含的三阶潜在结构, 使用新提出的多阶认知诊断模型对PISA 2015科学测评数据进行分析, 并通过模拟研究探究新模型的心理测量学性能。结果表明：(1)新模型能够较好地分析包含三阶潜在结构的科学素养; (2)科学知识对科学素养的影响最大, 科学背景次之, 科学能力的影响最小; (3)全贝叶斯MCMC算法能够为新模型提供较精准的参数估计。     

Assessing automatic activation of valence: a multinomial model of EAST performance

The Extrinsic Affective Simon Task (EAST; De Houwer, 2003) has been introduced as an indirect measure of automatic activation of valence. EAST effects provide nonrelative valence measures of single stimuli compared to relative measures (e.g., Implicit Association Test) that imply a comparison between two stimuli or concepts. However, EAST effects can be biased by response tendencies. A multinomial process dissociation model of EAST performance is proposed and successfully validated in four experiments. Its parameters provide pure and unbiased measures of automatic valence activation, controlled processing of task-relevant features, and response tendency. A first application of latent-class hierarchical multinomial models reveals a significant amount of parameter heterogeneity resulting from interindividual differences in accuracy motivation.     

A multinomial modeling analysis of the recognition-failure paradigm

The recognition-failure paradigm has received much theoretical consideration, especially the Tulving-Wiseman function and its exceptions. We show that the Tulving-Wiseman function does a poor job of accounting for the data, both when its fit is measured with a model-based, goodness-of-fit statistic and when a logically equivalent reformulation of the function is compared with data. We then present a simple multinomial model based on retrieval-independence theory that is capable of measuring storage and retrieval processes in recognition failure. The model is used to conduct a meta-analysis of the recognition-failure paradigm, and shows that violations of the Tulving-Wiseman function occur under conditions in which weak storage is coupled with strong retrieval. In addition, if storage and retrieval are assumed to be positively correlated across conditions, the model produces a theoretically motivated, alternative equation to the Tulving-Wiseman function that provides a virtually identical fit to the data.     

A central capacity sharing model of dual-task performance

The authors present the central capacity sharing (CCS) model and derive equations describing its behaviors to explain results from dual-task situations. The predictions of the CCS model are contrasted with those of the central bottleneck model. The CCS model predicts all of the hallmark effects of the psychological refractory period (PRP) pardigm: -1 slope of the PRP effect at short stimulus onset asynchronies (SOAs), underadditivity of precentral Task 2 manipulations, additivity of central or postcentral Task 2 manipulations with SOA, and carry forward to Task 2 of Task 1 precentral or central manipulations at short SOAs. The CCS model also predicts that Task 1 response times increase with decreasing SOA. The model is a viable alternative to the central bottleneck model.     

A questionnaire to assess school social climate

A questionnaire to assess the school social climate (CECSCE) made from items of The California School Climate and Safety Survey is presented. The CECSCE displays a stable factorial Oblimin structure in two social climate factors: 1) relative to the school and 2) relative to the teaching staff. Both factors present a correlation that oscillates between 0.42 and 0.48; and they explain 54,2% and 45,6% of the variance, respectively. Its reliability test-retest is acceptable (r= 0.61) after 9 months. Both factors present gender differences in favour of girls. They also differentiate at the educational level, displaying in 2 masculine course higher means in both factors than in 3 masculine course. The second factor correlates positively with the factors that measure social competence in the Merrell School Social Behaviour Scales and negatively with those that measure antisocial and non adapted behaviour.     

A mediation model linking attachment to God,self-compassion,and mental health

Attachment theory posits that insecure attachment is a risk factor for the development of anxiety and depression and ample evidence supports this idea. Research has also demonstrated links between attachment to God and mental health, but little is known about the emotion regulatory mechanism that underlies this relationship. The present study explored the explanatory role of self-compassion in the relation between attachment to God and anxiety, depression, and life satisfaction in a sample of 181 adults who completed an online survey. Elevated attachment anxiety and avoidance were associated with higher depression and anxiety, and lower life satisfaction. Self-compassion mediated these associations (in an inverse direction for anxiety and depression), suggesting that people who feel uncomfortable depending on God, or who fear God's rejection, have difficulty extending kindness to themselves. Possible interventions are discussed in the context of these results.