On choosing between deterministic and indeterministic models: underdetermination and indirect evidence

There are results which show that measure-theoretic deterministic models and stochastic models are observationally equivalent. Thus there is a choice between a deterministic and an indeterministic model and the question arises: Which model is preferable relative to evidence? If the evidence equally supports both models, there is underdetermination. This paper first distinguishes between different kinds of choice and clarifies the possible resulting types of underdetermination. Then a new answer is presented: the focus is on the choice between a Newtonian deterministic model supported by indirect evidence from other Newtonian models which invoke similar additional assumptions about the physical systems and a stochastic model that is not supported by indirect evidence. It is argued that the deterministic model is preferable. The argument against underdetermination is then generalised to a broader class of cases. Finally, the paper criticises the extant philosophical answers in relation to the preferable model. Winnie’s (1998) argument for the deterministic model is shown to deliver the correct conclusion relative to observations which are possible in principle and where there are no limits, in principle, on observational accuracy (the type of choice Winnie was concerned with). However, in practice the argument fails. A further point made is that Hoefer’s (2008) argument for the deterministic model is untenable.     

On choosing between movement sequences: comments on Rose (1988)

One method of investigating human motor programming is to determine how the choice reaction time for a memorized response sequence depends on the composition of that sequence as well as the other sequence that may be required. Using this method, Rose (1988) found that the total number of responses in the two possible response sequences predicts the choice reaction time to initiate either one. On the basis of this result, Rose claimed that the hierarchical editor (HED) model of motor programming, developed by Rosenbaum, Inhoff, and Gordon (1984), may have to be reevaluated. In this commentary I argue that Rose's results are inconsistent with a precursor of the HED model, not with the HED model itself, that the HED model actually provides a better fit to Rose's data than her total-number-of-responses model, that in general, choice reaction time does not increase with the total number of possible responses, and that structural relations between alternative movement sequences are the main determinants of choice reaction time. Taken as a whole, the results suggest that possible responses are not held in completely readied form before being selected for execution. A further implication is that the storage capacity of the motor output buffer (the MOB) is extremely limited.     

Choice among bets and revision of opinion

Ss estimated subjective probability (SP) on the basis of a sample in a hypothesis testing situation by choosing the subjectively optimal bet cat of a list and by stating verbal odds. In the choice among bets situation SP was inferred on the assumption of subjectively expected value maximization. Both estimates of SP were conservative compared with the theoretical prediction and did not differ significantly. This suggests that (a) utility had no distorting effect on the choice of the bet and (b) conservatism is not specifically bound to the use of special number scales or response sets.     

Intuitive confidence: choosing between intuitive and nonintuitive alternatives

People often choose intuitive rather than equally valid nonintuitive alternatives. The authors suggest that these intuitive biases arise because intuitions often spring to mind with subjective ease, and the subjective ease leads people to hold their intuitions with high confidence. An investigation of predictions against point spreads found that people predicted intuitive options (favorites) more often than equally valid (or even more valid) nonintuitive alternatives (underdogs). Critically, though, this effect was largely determined by people's confidence in their intuitions (intuitive confidence). Across naturalistic, expert, and laboratory samples (Studies 1-3), against personally determined point spreads (Studies 4-11), and even when intuitive confidence was manipulated by altering irrelevant aspects of the decision context (e.g., font; Studies 12 and 13), the authors found that decreasing intuitive confidence reduced or eliminated intuitive biases. These findings indicate that intuitive biases are not inevitable but rather predictably determined by contextual variables that affect intuitive confidence.     

On choosing an inexpensive microcomputer for the experimental psychology laboratory

This report compares currently available. Inexpensive (minimum stand-alone disk-based con-figuration under $2,000), mass-produced microcomputers from the viewpoint of their applicability as experiment control, stimulus generation, and data collection devices for the experimental psychology laboratory.     

The tiger on your tail: choosing between temporally extended behaviors

The time spent choosing between temporally extended behaviors cannot, in general, last as long as the behaviors themselves; otherwise, the tiger on your tail would have you for lunch. Previous reaction time studies provide little information on this topic, which was explored in the study reported here by showing participants images of scenes for which they could choose a left or right walking-and-reaching path. The paths they chose were nearly identical to ones chosen by participants who actually performed the task in a previous study. Moreover, the times participants took to choose the actions were about 5 times shorter than the times it took to perform them. The choice-time data were inconsistent with the idea that participants picked the path with a lower cost after mentally simulating the paths one after the other. Showing real-world scenes and having participants choose actions for them holds promise for future research in cognitive psychology, ecological psychology, and behavioral ecology.     

Place your bets: psychophysiological correlates of decision-making under risk

Emotions and their psychophysiological correlates are thought to play an important role in decision-making under risk. We used a novel gambling task to measure psychophysiological responses during selection of explicitly presented risky options and feedback processing. Active-choice trials, in which the participant had to select the size of bet, were compared to fixed-bet, no-choice trials. We further tested how the chances of winning and bet size affected choice behavior and psychophysiological arousal. Individual differences in impulsive and risk-taking traits were assessed. The behavioral results showed sensitivity to the choice requirement and to the chances of winning: Participants were faster to make a response on no-choice trials and when the chances of winning were high. In active-choice trials, electrodermal activity (EDA) increased with bet size during both selection and processing of losses. Cardiac responses were sensitive to choice uncertainty: Stronger selection-related heart rate (HR) decelerations were observed in trials with lower chances of winning, particularly on active-choice trials. Finally, betting behavior and psychophysiological responsiveness were moderately correlated with self-reported impulsivity-related traits. In conclusion, we demonstrate that psychophysiological arousal covaries with risk-sensitive decision-making outside of a learning context. Our results further highlight the differential sensitivities of EDA and HR to psychological features of the decision scenario.     

Behavioral ecology meets motor behavior: choosing between walking and reaching paths

Behavioral ecology is a field in which scientists try to predict behavioral choices, typically by estimating costs of behavioral alternatives even though those costs may involve different currencies. Researchers interested in motor behavior often have similar concerns, though the connections between these two fields have been largely unnoticed. The authors pursued a study of motor behaviors involving different currencies: walking over different distances and reaching over different distances. They found that the cost of reaching was much greater than the cost of walking. They also found that walking paths took into account hand preferences. The present study extends previous research on the neglected topic of the coordination of reaching and walking and provides a simple method that can be applied in other contexts.     

The effects of discussion on group and individual choices among bets

The effects of discussion on subsequent group and individual choices are studied in a situation where subjects choose between a sure gain of varying amount and five probability levels associated with larger gains of expected value equal to that of the sure gain. At the end of the experiment, a single bet, chosen at random, is played for money. Before discussion, subjects have to guess the percentage of similar, more risky and more cautious choices made by their peers for each of the six bets. As predicted by a majority-rule decision-making model significant risky shifts were observed for relatively low values of sure gain. For higher values, however, groups tended to be more cautious than individuals. The final private choices of individuals were significantly more risky than their initial decisions. Most individuals apparently thought they were at least as risky as most others. This finding was due, however, primarily to the responses of subjects who chose the highest risk-level (the ceiling effect) and, secondly, to the consistent tendency of most individuals to guess that others make the same choices as they themselves. It is concluded that majority influence seems a satisfactory explanation of group risky shifts observed in the present study, but it cannot account for modifications of group and individual choices in all risk-taking situations.     

Careers guidance and choosing a job

Data from the 16-year-old follow-up of the National Child Development Study relating to certain aspects of careers guidance are examined. These include the proportion of the 12,000 study children who were in schools with teachers responsible for careers guidance, the amount of training these teachers had received, and whether they were paid a special salary. The children's expected age of leaving school, their plans for further education and work, and their choice of likely first full-time jobs, are considered in relation to the presence of teachers with some training in careers guidance and to contacts with careers officers. The use made of sources of information about job choices is also described.     

Performance evaluation: On choosing to know the related attributes of others when we know their performance

It was hypothesized that people will choose to find out about the performance attributes of others who perform similarly to themselves if they believe the attributes are related to performance. Subjects within a group of nine were supposedly given different amounts of practice prior to taking a test on which performance was said to be either related or unrelated to practice. After taking the test, each subject was given his score, his rank order in the group, and the score obtained by each of the other group members. The subject was then allowed to find out about the number of items practiced by one other person in the group. A second choice was also given. On both first and second choices, subjects in the related condition chose to learn about others who were adjacent to them in the rank order. Subjects in the unrelated condition chose to learn about others with extreme scores. First choices in both conditions were strongly biased upward, supporting the unidirectional drive hypothesis.     

The psychological pleasure and pain of choosing: when people prefer choosing at the cost of subsequent outcome satisfaction

This empirical investigation tested the hypothesis that the benefits of personal choosing are restricted to choices made from among attractive alternatives. Findings from vignette and laboratory studies show that contrary to people's self-predictions prior to actually choosing, choosers only proved more satisfied than nonchoosers when selecting from among more preferred alternatives. When selecting from among less preferred alternatives, nonchoosers proved more satisfied with the decision outcome than choosers. Subsequent analyses revealed that differences in outcome satisfaction between choosers and nonchoosers emerge even before the decision outcome is experienced and that interventions during the decision-making process can serve to attenuate these differences. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

论友善

友善的本义是指像朋友一样善良。作为公民道德规范的友善 ,本质上是指友好善良的公民伦理关系和公民秩序。公民关系和公民秩序应该友善 ,是因为 ,我们的良序社会及其公共领域 ,都是伦理性的合作体系。友善规范具有规范、创造、整合功能。友善规范是抽象的 ,它的实施需要细分为更具体的义务 ,即善益待人、和气待人、诚实待人、宽厚以待人、平等相待。友善也是公民的一种主要道德品质 ,公民由之在公共领域做出友善的事情和行为友善。当前公民对于友善患有三症 ,即友善情感上的冷默症、友善行为上的推卸症、友善结果上的恐惧症。克服这三种症状 ,需要伦理、道德、管理等相结合 ,从伦理上建设公民关系和公共秩序。     

Working memory involvement in emotion-based processes underlying choosing advantageously

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is widely used to assess decision making under conditions of uncertainty in clinical as well as in nonclinical populations. However, there is still debate as to whether normal performance at this task relies on implicit, emotion-based processes that are independent of working memory. To clarify the role of working memory on normal performance on the IGT, participants performed the task under low or high working memory load. We used a modified version of the original task, in which the position of the four decks was randomized between trials. Results showed that only participants performing under low memory load significantly chose more advantageously halfway through the task. In addition, when comparing the number of cards chosen from the two decks with frequent losses, one advantageous and one disadvantageous, only participants performing under low memory load chose more cards from the advantageous deck. The present findings indicate that the processes underlying optimal advantageous performance on the IGT rely on working memory functions.