航空决策模型及其影响因素分析

航空决策指在航空飞行驾驶过程中,飞行员面对特定情境做出最佳决策时的心理过程。情景评估和风险评估是航空决策模型中最重要的两个阶段。个体认知因素、疲劳和动机因素以及知识经验的限制会导致不良航空决策,组织压力和社会因素则通过混淆飞行员对飞行安全的看法间接影响航空决策。在未来的研究中,研究者应当重视构建更合理的航空决策模型,从辩证的角度全面看待知识经验与飞行安全的关系,加强对动机因素和环境因素的调查分析和实验性研究。     

The dynamics of deferred decision

Decision makers are often unable to choose between the options that they are offered. In these settings they typically defer their decision, that is, delay the decision to a later point in time or avoid the decision altogether. In this paper, we outline eight behavioral findings regarding the causes and consequences of choice deferral that cognitive theories of decision making should be able to capture. We show that these findings can be accounted for by a deferral-based time limit applied to existing sequential sampling models of preferential choice. Our approach to modeling deferral as a time limit in a sequential sampling model also makes a number of novel predictions regarding the interactions between choice probabilities, deferral probabilities, and decision times, and we confirm these predictions in an experiment. Choice deferral is a key feature of everyday decision making, and our paper illustrates how established theoretical approaches can be used to understand the cognitive underpinnings of this important behavioral phenomenon.     

Computer-augmented decision making

The principal judgmental components of multiattribute decision making are examined here with specific reference to how these components can be captured electronically. Once captured, a function, rule, or algorithm may be executed for the integration of this information and the selection of the optimal alternative(s). Two kinds of algorithms are discussed: one based on linear models, the other on fuzzy-set theory and ratio scaling. With on-line support and certain assumptions about human biases (which lead to nonoptimal decisions), the quality of decisions can be enhanced considerably. The principal concerns are with end-user acceptance of computer augmented decisions.     

Numeracy and decision making

A series of four studies explored how the ability to comprehend and transform probability numbers relates to performance on judgment and decision tasks. On the surface, the tasks in the four studies appear to be widely different; at a conceptual level, however, they all involve processing numbers and the potential to show an influence of affect. Findings were consistent with highly numerate individuals being more likely to retrieve and use appropriate numerical principles, thus making themselves less susceptible to framing effects, compared with less numerate individuals. In addition, the highly numerate tended to draw different (generally stronger or more precise) affective meaning from numbers and numerical comparisons, and their affective responses were more precise. Although generally helpful, this tendency may sometimes lead to worse decisions. The less numerate were influenced more by competing, irrelevant affective considerations. Analyses showed that the effect of numeracy was not due to general intelligence. Numerical ability appears to matter to judgments and decisions in important ways.     

Dynamic multi-criteria decision making

Most medium-and long-term decision making in industry and government can be viewed as dynamic multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), in which the decision makers are free to alter the emphasis placed on each objective in the light of developing circumstances. In this paper the problem of time-dependent weights in MCDM is discussed and an analysis of empirical data associated with dynamic decision making is presented.     

Knowledge management in decision making and decision support

A knowledge-oriented view of decisions and decision making is introduced, as a complement to classical perspectives and as a contribution of under-standing computer-based possibilities for relaxing strains on decision makers. This perspective includes a model of knowledge management activities performed by a decision maker and a taxonomy of knowledge types. It leads to a characterization of decision-support-system purpose, traits, and potentials that offers a basis for new research into computer-based possibilities for knowledge management. Clyde W. Holsapple holds the Rosenthal Endowed Chair in Management Information Systems and is Professor of Decision Science and Information Systems at the College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky.     

Expectation theories of decision making for duplex gambles

Complete tests of subjectively expected utility (SEU), subjectively expected value (SEV), expected utility (EU) and expected value (EV) theories were made for duplex gambles without measuring subjective probability or subjective utility. All gambles were hypothetical and offered on booklets. The duplex gambles consisted of winning gambles, which offered a chance to win a certain amount of money or to break even; and losing gambles, which offered a chance to lose a certain amount of money or break even.The results indicated that SEU, SEV and EU theories could not account for the strategies of 33%, 53% and 86% of the Ss respectively in the losing form of gambles, while EV theory accounted for 78% of the behavior of Ss.In the winning form of gambles, SEU, SEV and EU theory held for 77%, 65%, and 54% of the Ss respectively, while EV theory held for only 40% of the Ss. Suggestions for further research were made.     

Systematic behavior research for understanding consumer decision making

This study incorporates means—end chain (MEC) theory and dynamic programming for understanding the implications of consumer decision making. The conceptual framework of this study can help programmers design information systems for analyzing consumption behaviors. Such analyses will provide marketers with meaningful information for formulating marketing strategies. The main contributions of this article are as follows: (1) to enable researchers to obtain information for consumer cognitive hierarchies utilizing an information system, (2) to enhance the functions of traditional MEC methodology and provide an integrated method for analyzing consumption information, and (3) to construct an information system for analyzing consumer decision-making processes.     

Counterfactual thinking and decision making

Recent research on counterfactual thinking is discussed in terms of its implications for decision making. Against a backdrop of the functional benefits of counterfactual thinking, two distinct types of bias, one liberal and one conservative, are discussed. Counterfactuals may cause decision makers to become liberally biased (i.e., capricious) in terms of tactics, but conservatively biased (i.e., rigid) in terms of long-term strategy. That is, counterfactuals may lead to short-term corrective changes that are needless and costly, but they may also lead to long-term overconfidence, blinding the decision maker to possible beneficial strategic adjustments. Recent research on counterfactual thinking, which is inherently multidisciplinary, is reviewed in light of a theoretical structure that posits two mechanisms by which counterfactual effects occur: contrast effects and causal inferences.     

Personality components of decision making

Summary Relationships between proneness to behavioral stereotypy (Ster) measured in a problem-solving task (electromaze) and decision-making behavior (under conditions of risk and certainty, chance and skill) were investigated using 64 subjects. Subjects more stereotyped in the electromaze (Ster ⁺) tended to also be more stereotyped in their decision-making behavior. Ster was not related to extraversion, neuroticism, rigidity or overall electromaze performance, but Ster ^– more often required an excessive number of trials for task solution. The decision making of males tended to be more stereotyped. The results were discussed in terms of the construct validity and theoretical interpretation of Ster.

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Zusammenfassung Es wurden Beziehungen zwischen der Neigung zur Verhaltensstereotypie (Ster), die bei einer Problemlösungsaufgabe gemessen wurde, und dem Entscheidungsverhalten (mit und ohne Risiko, wobei der Erfolg sowohl durch den Zufall wie auch durch das Können der Vp bestimmt wurde) untersucht. Vpn, die sich im Electromaze stereotyp verhielten (Ster ⁺), verhielten sich auch bei ihren Entscheidungen stereotyp. Es wurden keine Beziehungen zwischen Ster und den Variablen Extraversion, Neurotizismus, Rigidität und Gesamtleistung im Electromaze gefunden, jedoch benötigten Ster ^– häufiger eine extrem lange Serie von Versuchen zur Aufgabenlösung. Die männliche Vpn neigten stärker dazu, in Entscheidungssituationen stereotyp zu reagieren. Die Ergebnisse wurden vom Standpunkt der Konstruktvalidität und der theoretischen Grundlage der Ster aus diskutiert.

     

Conditional mechanisms of decision making

Decision making is an important link in the central part of a reflex—the “mental element” according to Sechenov. The reflex nature of this mental process is revealed in experiments where a voluntary motor reaction is chosen unconsciously as a response to subliminal conditional visual stimuli. Thus, learning which is reflected by “advance” or prior decision making can be performed unconsciously through a conditional reflex. But, once elaborated, temporary connections are preserved only in shortterm memory. They are not transferred to long-term memory, as in the case of recognition of signals. Decision making, being the central mental part of the reflex, like any activity of the brain, is performed in time by a certain cortical structure. Analysis of P₃₀₀ amplitudes shows that decision making is related to local activation of the frontal parts of the cerebral hemispheres. We suggest that the local activation of these areas is induced by conditional excitation of the neuronal mechanisms of focused attention. It provides a “command” to perform a voluntary motor reaction adequate to the conditions at hand. A large part of latency of voluntary motor response of man is spent on decision making, especially in discrimination of signals and in choice of reactions.     

Decision making styles and progress in occupational decision making

This study provides a reexamination of the role of different decisional strategies in facilitating progress in occupational decision making. Although the assumptions that a rational decision making style is the preferred mode of vocational functioning has been endorsed in a variety of career theories and interventions, there has been conflicting evidence about the validity of this assumption. To examine the role of different decisional approaches in the progress of making an occupational decision, the rational, intuitive, and dependent decision making style scores of 71 undergraduate students were used to predict progress in occupational decision making. The results of the regression analyses failed to provide support for the assumption that a rational style is the most effective in accomplishing this careerrelated task, but indicated strong support for the conclusion that the use of dependent decisional strategies is damaging, particularly in early stages of the decisional process.     

Group decision process and incrementalism in organizational decision making

In two studies examining resource allocation, support is found for the notion that group decisions are affected in systematic ways depending on whether or not there was individual consideration of the problem before meeting as a group. Specifically, compared to no prior consideration groups, prior consideration groups (1) escalate their commitment more in progress (i.e., ongoing) decisions, and (2) are less willing to concentrate resources on a single project in adoption (i.e., resource utilization) decisions. The findings challenge the blanket assertion that promoting divergent views in a group decision context is always related to better decisions.     

Regression-based techniques for statistical decision making in single-case designs

The present study evaluates the performance of four methods for estimating regression coefficients used to make statistical decisions about intervention effectiveness in single-case designs. Ordinary least square estimation is compared to two correction techniques dealing with general trend and a procedure that eliminates autocorrelation whenever it is present. Type I error rates and statistical power are studied for experimental conditions defined by the presence or absence of treatment effect (change in level or in slope), general trend, and serial dependence. The results show that empirical Type I error rates do not approach the nominal ones in the presence of autocorrelation or general trend when ordinary and generalized least squares are applied. The techniques controlling trend show lower false alarm rates, but prove to be insufficiently sensitive to existing treatment effects. Consequently, the use of the statistical significance of the regression coefficients for detecting treatment effects is not recommended for short data series.     

Prototype matching: a strategy for social decision making

College students responded to a series of questionnaires while they were in the process of selecting housing from a choice of seven available options for the coming fall. Questionnaires concerned their self-concepts, their housing prototypes, their preferences in housing, and their goals in housing selection. Overall analyses of the self-to-prototype matching strategy suggest that most students indeed prefer the type of housing for which their prototype of the "representative" resident most closely matches their self-perceptions. More important, we obtained individual differences in attention to self-fit in situations. Of individuals who reported that they had interpersonal goals in the housing selection task, those who reported that many personality characteristics (both positive and negative) were untrue of self were more systematic in their use of the self-to-prototype matching rule, this was also true of low self-monitors. Neither pattern of individual differences obtained for students with practical goals in the housing decision.     

Toward a methodology for moral decision making in medicine

The failure of medical codes to provide adequate guidance for physicians' moral dilemmas points to the fact that some rules of analysis, informed by moral theory, are needed to assist in resolving perplexing ethical problems occurring with increasing frequency as medical technology advances. Initially, deontological and teleological theories appear more helpful, but critcisms can be lodged against both, and neither proves to be sufficient in itself. This paper suggests that to elude the limitations of previous approaches, a method of moral decision making must be developed incorporating both coherence methodology and some independently supported theoretical foundations. Wide Reflective Equilibrium is offered, and its process described along with a theory of the person which is used to animate the process. Steps are outlined to be used in the process, leading to the application of the method to an actual case.     

Assessing motivational readiness and decision making for exercise.

Motivational and cognitive processes of behavior change with respect to the area of exercise adoption were investigated. A total of 778 men and women, recruited from four worksites, answered a 40-item questionnaire consisting of statements based on constructs from the trans-theoretical model of behavior change. Principal-components analysis identified two factors--one a 6-item component representing avoidance of exercise (Cons), the other a 10-item component representing positive perceptions of exercise (Pros). Analysis of variance showed that the Pros, Cons, and a Decisional Balance measure (Pros minus Cons) were significantly associated with stage of exercise adoption. Results are consistent with applications of the model to smoking cessation and other areas of behavior change. Distinctions between exercise adoption and behaviors such as smoking cessation, weight loss, and alcoholism are discussed.