Outlying Observation Diagnostics in Growth Curve Modeling

Growth curve models are widely used for investigating growth and change phenomena. Many studies in social and behavioral sciences have demonstrated that data without any outlying observation are rather an exception, especially for data collected longitudinally. Ignoring the existence of outlying observations may lead to inaccurate or even incorrect statistical inferences. Therefore, it is crucial to identify outlying observations in growth curve modeling. This study comparatively evaluates six methods in outlying observation diagnostics through a Monte Carlo simulation study on a linear growth curve model, by varying factors of sample size, number of measurement occasions, as well as proportion, geometry, and type of outlying observations. It is suggested that the greatest chance of success in detecting outlying observations comes from use of multiple methods, comparing their results and making a decision based on research purposes. A real data analysis example is also provided to illustrate the application of the six outlying observation diagnostic methods.     

On the relation between base-rate and cost-benefit learning in simulated medical diagnosis.

Observers completed a series of simulated medical diagnosis tasks that differed in category discriminability and base-rate/cost-benefit ratio. Point, accuracy, and decision criterion estimates were closer to optimal (a) for category d' = 2.2 than for category d' = 1.0 or 3.2, (b) when base-rates as opposed to cost-benefits were manipulated, and (c) when the cost of an incorrect response resulted in no point loss (nonnegative cost) as opposed to a point loss (negative cost). These results support the "flat-maxima" and competition between reward and accuracy (COBRA) hypotheses. A hybrid model that instantiated simultaneously both hypotheses was applied to the data. The model parameters indicated that (a) the reward-maximizing decision criterion quickly approached the optimal criterion, (b) the importance placed on accuracy maximization early in learning was larger when the cost of an incorrect response was negative as opposed to nonnegative, and (c) by the end of training the importance placed on accuracy was equal for negative and nonnegative costs.     

时间估计任务中的反馈加工和行为调节：来自ERP的证据

本研究采用时间估计任务, 利用高时间分辨率的ERP技术, 试图从时间进程上窥探行为调节的认知神经机制。该时间估计任务提供了指导行为调节的反馈信息有三类：时间估计的准确性、时间估计的不准确方向和不准确程度。行为结果表明, 被试根据前次时间估计的对错、不准确的方向和程度进行相应的调整。脑电成分发现, FRN对于时间估计的对、错敏感, 对时间估计的不准确的方向和程度不敏感, 显示FRN提供了粗略的、需要做出行为调节的早期预警信号; 相反, P300能够区别时间估计上不准确的方向和程度, 结合行为数据, 显示P300反映的是整合不同的信息来更新行为表征, 从而引导被试做出不同方向和不同程度的调节。这些结果表明, 行为调节的认知神经基础可能由两个阶段组成：早期传递需要做出行为调节的预警信号阶段和晚期整合信息来更新行为表征从而指导行为调节的阶段。     

“Piensa” twice: On the foreign language effect in decision making

In this article, we assess to what extent decision making is affected by the language in which a given problem is presented (native vs. foreign). In particular, we aim to ask whether the impact of various heuristic biases in decision making is diminished when the problems are presented in a foreign language. To this end, we report four main studies in which more than 700 participants were tested on different types of individual decision making problems. In the first study, we replicated Keysar et al.’s (2012) recent observation regarding the foreign language effect on framing effects related to loss aversion. In the second section, we assessed whether the foreign language effect is present in other types of framing problems that involve psychological accounting biases rather than gain/loss dichotomies. In the third section, we studied the foreign language effect in several key aspects of the theory of decision making under risk and uncertainty. In the fourth study, we assessed the presence of a foreign language effect in the cognitive reflection test, a test that includes logical problems that do not carry emotional connotations. The absence of such an effect in this test suggests that foreign language leads to a reduction of heuristic biases in decision making across a range of decision making situations and provide also some evidence about the boundaries of the phenomenon. We explore several potential factors that may underlie the foreign language effect in decision making.     

Confidence in masked orientation judgments is informed by both evidence and visibility

How do human observers determine their degree of belief that they are correct in a decision about a visual stimulus—that is, their confidence? According to prominent theories of confidence, the quality of stimulation should be positively related to confidence in correct decisions, and negatively to confidence in incorrect decisions. However, in a backward-masked orientation task with a varying stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA), we observed that confidence in incorrect decisions also increased with stimulus quality. Model fitting to our decision and confidence data revealed that the best explanation for the present data was the new weighted evidence-and-visibility model, according to which confidence is determined by evidence about the orientation as well as by the general visibility of the stimulus. Signal detection models, postdecisional accumulation models, two-channel models, and decision-time-based models were all unable to explain the pattern of confidence as a function of SOA and decision correctness. We suggest that the metacognitive system combines several cues related to the correctness of a decision about a visual stimulus in order to calculate decision confidence.     

Rats' knowledge of incorrect responses in a matching-to-sample task

The idea that rats possess some knowledge about having been incorrect when having previously made an incorrect response is proposed. A matching-to-sample task with a second choice was used to assess the hypothesis. Only if the correct lever was chosen on the second choice was the animal rewarded. Further, the second choice was offered whether the animal was initially correct or incorrect in its first choice, preventing it from "knowing" if it had been correct in its initial decision. If rats possessed some knowledge whether they had been correct or not, then the number of correct second choice responses after an incorrect first one should have been greater than chance. The current experiment provided some evidence that the rats did "know" when its choices were incorrect.     

Postdecision consolidation in a trend prediction task

To be able to learn from experience it is necessary to correctly apprehend experienced feedback and the situation in which it is provided. The results indicate how post-decision consolidation in complex domains may affect learning. The problem may be particularly pertinent in recurrent decision making where considerable risk is involved. The study explores the changes in aspect (signal) importance from pre- to postdiction as a function of outcome information. By postdiction we mean the remembering of an earlier prediction (cf. Hawkins & Hastie, 1990). Subjects were asked to decide on which of four alternative future price developments would follow a historical price trajectory for different commodities, and to rate the importance of each of the chosen alternative's corresponding aspects. The subjects revealed a bias in their support ratings of aspects--seeing support in aspects that traditionally (by themselves and in many contexts) would be seen as neutral or even counter-indicative of the alternative chosen. After an intermission, the subjects were also given information about what was indicated to be the actual development of the market. One group was told that their decisions were correct (irrespective of what the decisions were), another group that they were incorrect but close, a third group that they were incorrect by far, while a fourth group served as a control. Following this information the subjects were again asked to judge the importance of the aspects for their own prior decision on the most likely future development. The results indicated that outcome feed-back had an effect on post decision restructuring of facts. Subjects in the correct condition showed an average consolidation that increased the support, while the wrong conditions lead to negative consolidation (in retrospect indicating that they never found as much support for their decision in the past as they actually did). Thus, in a choice between consolidating their own initial prediction and the price trajectory they would have to live with, the decision makers consolidated the outcome. Therefore, the results of the study were related to the hindsight bias phenomenon (Fischhoff, 1975) and to Kahneman and Miller's (1986) mutability concept.     

A resource-bounded agent addresses the newcomb problem

In the Newcomb problem, the standard arguments for taking either one box or both boxes adduce what seem to be relevant considerations, but they are not complete arguments, and attempts to complete the arguments rely upon incorrect principles of rational decision making. It is argued that by considering how the predictor is making his prediction, we can generate a more complete argument, and this in turn supports a form of causal decision theory.     

Specifying importance weights consistent with a covariance structure

Many situations exist in which multiple dimensions must be combined to create a composite which reflects overall utility or value to a decision maker. A linear combination is often used in which the decision maker's importance weights are multiplied by values of each dimension and then added. When the decision maker's weights are applied, however, the dimension values must have equal variance and essentially zero correlations, or else the ordering on the composite will be incorrect. In this paper, we provide a method which compensates for dimension correlation and inequality of dimension variance. The method is illustrated with ratings of modifications proposed for nuclear power plants.     

The power of the majority: Social conformity in sexual harassment punishment selection

In his famous social conformity experiments in the 1950's, Asch found 75% of participants conformed to confederates’ incorrect answers at least once, with an overall conformity rate of 32%, revealing that humans are highly likely to conform to group behavior even when that behavior is clearly wrong. The purpose of this study was to determine if the social conformity effect generalized to scenarios involving sexual harassment punishment selections in the workplace. Participants read various workplace sexual harassment scenarios and then witnessed four confederates chose one of three types of punishments (verbal warning, 1-week suspension, or termination). The confederates stated aloud punishments that were either appropriate (i.e., similar to normative data) or inappropriate (i.e., deviating either too harshly or leniently to normative data). Participants then provided their punishments selection aloud, and confidentially rated their decision confidence. We found an overall conformity rate of 46%, as 82.67% conformed at least once to harsh or lenient punishment selections. Participants who conformed to incorrect punishment selections exhibited lower levels of decision confidence, indicating that conformity may have been due more to social normative influence. The current results imply the social responses of others (i.e., coworkers, supervisors, or HR) can impact responses to sexual harassment. The results imply that social influence may be a significant contributing factor in mislabeling, misreporting, or inappropriately punishing sexual harassment in some organizations.     

Predicting the Outcomes of Disputes: Consequences for Disputant Reactions to Procedures and Outcomes1

Third parties in dispute settings often make predictions to disputants regarding the likely outcome of their dispute at arbitration. However, virtually no research has examined the impact of predictions on disputant satisfaction with dispute resolution procedures and outcomes. One explanation for the lack of attention to this variable may be that current theorizing regarding dispute resolution procedures is too narrowly stated to incorporate this procedural variation. Theories about predictability from nondispute settings are used to generate hypotheses regarding the consequences of such outcome prediction. In a laboratory setting, disputants prepared arguments in anticipation of an arbitration hearing. Prior to the arbitrator's decision, the experimenter read the disputants' arguments and made a prediction regarding the arbitrator's decision. Their arguments were then presented to an arbitrator who imposed a binding decision. Dependent measures include the disputants' anxiety while awaiting the arbitrator's decision, and their postdecision satisfaction with dispute resolution procedures and outcomes. Internal analyses support the hypothesis that outcome prediction has benefits for disputants' predecision coping, ratings of procedural fairness, and satisfaction judgments. Also, as hypothesized, correct predictions produced greater postdecision satisfaction with outcomes and decision-makers than did incorrect predictions.     

The effect of social observation on children's inhibitory control

This study examined the effects of social observation on young children's performance during an inhibitory control task. In Experiment 1, children were randomly assigned to either a neutral, facilitation, or interference condition. In the neutral condition, children were presented with a standard black/white task. In the facilitation and interference conditions, children were asked to observe the task performance of another person, who gave either correct (facilitation) or incorrect (interference) responses, and then complete the task themselves. The results revealed that the performance of children in the interference condition was worse than in the other two conditions, but the difference between the two other conditions was not significant. The results of Experiment 2 show that social observation did not facilitate inhibitory control in children. These results suggest that social observation interferes with but does not facilitate inhibitory control in children. Therefore, social observation may interfere with certain aspects of executive function.     

How race affects evidence accumulation during the decision to shoot

The biasing role of stereotypes is a central theme in social cognition research. For example, to understand the role of race in police officers’ decisions to shoot, participants have been shown images of Black and White males and instructed to shoot only if the target is holding a gun. Findings show that Black targets are shot more frequently and more quickly than Whites. The decision to shoot has typically been modeled and understood as a signal detection process in which a sample of information is compared against a criterion, with the criterion set for Black targets being lower. We take a different approach, modeling the decision to shoot as a dynamic process in which evidence is accumulated over time until a threshold is reached. The model accounts for both the choice and response time data for both correct and incorrect decisions using a single set of parameters. Across four studies, this dynamic perspective revealed that the target’s race did not create an initial bias to shoot Black targets. Instead, race impacted the rate of evidence accumulation with evidence accumulating faster to shoot for Black targets. Some participants also tended to be more cautious with Black targets, setting higher decision thresholds. Besides providing a more cohesive and richer account of the decision to shoot or not, the dynamic model suggests interventions that may address the use of race information in decisions to shoot and a means to measure their effectiveness.     

The Impact of Decision Timing on the Effectiveness of Leaders’ Apologies to Repair Followers’ Trust in the Aftermath of Leader Failure

Purpose

The aim of the present research was to investigate how a negative decision outcome generated by a leader in a hasty, timely, or delayed manner impacts upon the need for, and the effectiveness of apologies to restore followers’ trust.

Design/Methodology/Approach

Data were collected using five studies in which the effects of timing of an incorrect decision on the trust repair process were investigated.

Findings

In the aftermath of a leader’s failure, followers experienced a delayed incorrect decision as a more severe transgression than a hasty or a timely incorrect decision. This effect was mediated by procedural fairness concerns (Study 1). The present findings also revealed an interesting paradox. Specifically, in the delayed condition followers expressed the highest need for an apology (Studies 2 and 3), but at the same time expected an apology to be less effective for enhancing trustworthiness than in the timely and the hasty condition (Study 3). Moreover, we also showed that the actual provision of an apology was effective for restoring both trustworthiness (Study 4) and trust (Studies 4 and 5) in the timely and the hasty condition, but ineffective in the delayed condition.

Implications

The present research shows that when the outcome of a decision is uncertain, it is better to make a decision (too) soon rather than (too) late.

Originality/Value

Despite the ubiquity of timing errors in daily life, our studies are the first to focus on the role of timeliness of decisions in the trust repair process.

     

Do medical decision analyses' largest gains grow from the smallest trees?

Some decision analysts recommend reserving their models for careful, complete study of complex problems. Others believe simple problem analyses provide the greatest gains. To clarify these issues, I tested: (1) whether simple published analyses compared to complex ones, produced results as non-intuitive; and (2) whether non-intuitiveness represented analytic gain (or equivalently, intuitive loss). Very limited data also examined (3) the gain from adding model intricacy for a given problem vs. selecting more complex problems for analysis. To assess two non-intuitiveness measures, 75 subjects (33 physicians and 42) non-physicians stated their intuitive preferences in 40 (22 published and 18 unpublished) medical dilemmas. For both physicians and non-physicians, simpler models (those with lees than 30 terminal branches in the decision tree) had about one third the non-intuitiveness of more complex ones. Three tests also supported the premise that analyses outperform intuition, therefore that on average the formers' non-intuitiveness reflects less analytic gain. In addition, for different models of the same problem, tree complexity did not correlate with gain. Thus, simpler trees may not generally gain less because they inadequately describe problems. Instead, simpler analyses may represent simpler problems, with more similar intuitive and formal solutions. If so, these findings may help us avoid some costly but unnecessary simple analyses.     

Characterizing visual behaviour in a lineup task

Eye tracking was used to monitor participants' visual behaviour while viewing lineups in order to determine whether gaze behaviour predicted decision accuracy. Participants viewed taped crimes followed by simultaneous lineups. Participants (N = 34) viewed 4 target‐present and 4 target‐absent lineups. Decision time, number of fixations and duration of fixations differed for selections vs. non‐selections. Correct and incorrect selections differed only in terms of comparison‐type behaviour involving the selected face. Correct and incorrect non‐selections could be distinguished by decision time, number of fixations and duration of fixations on the target or most‐attended face and comparisons. Implications of visual behaviour for judgment strategy (relative vs. absolute) are discussed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

行为决策视野中的幸福及其提升策略

人类的终极目标之一就是获得幸福。随着行为决策研究的不断发展, 近年来有许多行为决策领域的研究者开始了对幸福的探索。行为决策中的幸福法则包括：快乐编辑、少即是更好、巅峰-结尾法则、短视和损失规避。基于这些法则的提升幸福的策略主要包括：告诉消息的策略、赠送礼物的策略、使用损失规避提升幸福的策略、使用巅峰-结尾法则提升幸福的策略和克服行为短视的策略。     

Family Admission Decisions As a Therapeutic Tool

The decision admit a disturbed adolescent to a mental hospital is all too often made by a hard-pressed duty psychiatrist, late in the day, but early in his training. The effects of this decision may well reverberate down the generations. At the Unit for younger adolescents at Hill End Hospital, St. Albans, Hertfordshire, England ( 5 ), the family, not the psychiatrist, makes the decision. This approach is based on the observation that when families eject their youngsters, parental authority is often disintegrating. Referral for admission provides a golden opportunity, not only for reversing the ejection process, but also for forging, on the anvil of a profoundly important decision, a more viable family authority structure. Therapeutic leverage is made available at the very heart of the family problem.     

Comparison of the geometric and the contrast models of similarity by presentation of visual stimuli to the left and the right visual fields

In this study we investigated by means of the "same-different" decision task the process of comparing visual stimuli (schematic faces, familiar objects, houseplants, and nonsense figures) when presented for 100-150 msec to the right or to the left visual hemifields. The analysis of incorrect "same" responses showed that the addition of a common component (e.g., glasses, buttons) to a pair of nonidentical stimuli increased the percentage of incorrect same responses whereas the addition of the same component to one stimulus only in the pair decreased the percentage of incorrect "same" responses. This pattern, which is in accordance with Tversky's contrast model of similarity, is incompatible with any geometric model. Second, for schematic faces the results revealed that the left hemisphere is more sensitive to common than to distinctive features, whereas the right hemisphere is more sensitive to distinctive than to common features. No such interaction was obtained for the other type of stimuli. The implications of these results for models of similarity and the difference between the present findings and the findings of Sergent (1984) are discussed.