Literature on the future and its bearing on futures research

Abstract

The role of international organizations like the IMF, World Bank and GATT in the management of global risks are discussed. Special attention is paid to problems caused by the need to recycle funds from the developed countries to the Third World. The ever‐increasing macro‐economic uncertainty concerning foreign exchange rates, interest rates, and relative prices places heavy demands on corporate planning on both the commercial and financial sides.     

Social Identity and Corporate Mergers

Corporate mergers require proper human resources management to reach their financial and strategic objectives and minimize negative consequences for employee well‐being. Understanding the antecedents of employees’ identification with the merged organization during the corporate merger is crucial, because stronger post‐merger identification results in less conflict and higher levels of motivation. Unfortunately, employees often identify more strongly with their pre‐merger organizations than with the merged organization. One influential approach to understanding the processes underlying organizational identification is the social identity approach ( Tajfel & Turner, 1986 ; Turner, Hogg, Oakes, Reicher, & Wetherell, 1987 ). Research applying this perspective to organizational mergers shows that levels of identification with the merged organization are partly explained by status and dominance differences of the involved organizations, by motivational threats and uncertainties during the merger, and by the representation of the post‐merger identity. Leaders and managers of corporate mergers are able to influence these processes and, thus, to provide a path for successful merger integration.     

The Effect of Multiple Reference Points and Prior Gains and Losses on Managers′ Risky Decision Making

This study examines the impact of two contextual features of decision settings on managers′ risky behavior. Considerable research indicates that decision makers exhibit risk avoiding or risk taking behavior depending upon whether options are viewed as gains or losses with respect to a given reference point. We argue in this paper that multiple points of reference are important determinants of risky behavior in many decision contexts, and that research should explicitly consider their effect to fully understand and predict risky behavior. The analysis of contextual features is extended to consider the impact of prior gains and losses in the second part of the paper. Seventy-two professional corporate managers participated in two experiments that involved a corporate investment decision setting. The setting exemplifies a context that has both multiple important points of reference and prior gains and losses. The data indicated that the presence of multiple relevant reference points results in a complex pattern of risky behavior, where managers′ decisions to accept or avoid risk were affected by the relative positions of risky alternatives with respect to two important points of reference. In particular, a mixture of risk taking and risk avoiding occurred for options between the relevant reference points. The managers were also found to be more willing to accept risk after experiencing a prior gain as opposed to a prior loss. These findings point to the importance of considering such task characteristics when attempting to predict and understand risky behavior across a variety of task contexts.     

The Management of Risk in the Global Service Economy 1

The effects of the transformation to a service economy on the management of vulnerability and uncertainty are discussed. After discussing the notion and role of risks in different kinds of cultural and economic environments, he closes with a plea for closer cooperation between entrepreneurs, engineers and economists: together they can transform the risks and vulnerabilities of the modern service economy into a challenge for progress.     

The Effects of NAFTA-Driven Relocations on Organizations of the United States and Mexico

Currently, many corporations in Mexico and the United States are experiencing dramatic growth directly related to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Because many corporate activities are being shifted across borders, some companies are inclined to relocate managers frequently. These policies could be unfavorably considered by employees, therefore jeopardizing their Job satisfaction. The purpose of this article is to study the use of relocation as a method for improving management performance.     

Coping In the Corporation: Sex Role Constraints

In this paper, the predictive power of status-based and socialization-based explanations of the differential rewards accruing to men and women in the corporate world are compared. Ninety-five experienced managers were asked to evaluate persuasive dialogues between two individuals in a corporate setting. Sex of the actor, sex of the other, and the influence technique used by the actor all affected the personality traits attributed to the influential actor. Our respondents perceived influential males as significantly more powerful, higher in corporate position, and warmer than identically described females. Implications of these and other findings for both male and female managers are discussed.     

The effects of mood on managerial risk perceptions: exploring affect and the dimensions of risk.

The effects of managerial mood on situational risk perceptions were tested among 85 managers from a variety of organizations, industries, and positions in Singapore. A risk-assessment scenario was developed that systematically varied the risk dimensions of outcome uncertainty, potential gains and losses, situational framing, and personal expectations. Negative, neutral, and positive moods were induced by having managers recall and describe work events. As affective state became more positive, managers perceived situational framing as more positive, and their beliefs that they could influence risky outcomes increased. Additionally, positive affect increased the likelihood that people who perceived situations as risky would select riskier courses of action.     

决策策略与个性特征关系的模拟实验

本研究以实验室模拟实验和现场模拟实验为手段,以大学本科生和工厂管理人员为被试,分两部分进行。第一部分,以企业新产品开发为决策内容,考察这类决策情景的不确定性和决策策略的关系。结果发现,决策策略随不确定状态而改变;决策情景的不确定程度和决策策略没有严格的一一对应关系;在四类不确定决策情景下,都有被试采用混合型策略,从而验证了先前研究的结果。第二部分,我们考察了决策策略与个性特征的关系。结果发现,偏离决策策略的规定性理论所预测的被试同没有偏离的被试在CPI量表的三种个性特征上,即成熟度、成就动机与管理潜能,有显著性差异;对实验室实验被试和现场实验被试而言,均发现管理潜能这一个性特征一致性的显著影响。文章最后提出了有待进一步探索的课题。     

The Effects of Mood on Managerial Risk Perceptions: Exploring Affect and the Dimensions of Risk

Abstract

The effects of managerial mood on situational risk perceptions were tested among 85 managers from a variety of organizations, industries, and positions in Singapore. A risk-assessment scenario was developed that systematically varied the risk dimensions of outcome uncertainty, potential gains and losses, situational framing, and personal expectations. Negative, neutral, and positive moods were induced by having managers recall and describe work events. As affective state became more positive, managers perceived situational framing as more positive, and their beliefs that they could influence risky outcomes increased. Additionally, positive affect increased the likelihood that people who perceived situations as risky would select riskier courses of action.     

The Fortune 500 Companies' Selection Criteria for Promotion to First Level Sales Management: An Empirical Study

Since marketing, and particularly selling activities, determine the sources and size of a company's revenue, factors which vitally affect sales force performance are matters of crucial importance to corporate management.

Predicting how a newly appointed first level sales manager will perform in the new leadership task remains a difficult problem and the determination and use of selection criteria appears not to be clearly defined in the literature. Previous research has identified desirable attributes as selection criteria though typically these are neither ranked in importance nor as attributes that “can be developed later through training/experience” or be “innate to the person selected.” This research focused upon the selection criteria and practices of the Fortune 500 companies in selecting/appointing their first level sales managers. The results revealed that (i) the Fortune 500 human resource managers are in agreement with the findings of previous research with regard to which personality and character traits are crucial pre-requisites to good sales management performance; (ii) a surprisingly small number of firms use psychological batteries/tests or qualified psychologists to measure these traits; and (iii) turnover rates, not due to promotion, among first level sales managers appear to be high.     

企业新产品开发决策的不确定性和决策策略模拟实验研究

本文以企业新产品开发为决策内容,根据决策策略的规定性理论框架和先前调查所得决策案例,设计四种决策情景来代表四种不确定状态,通过５６名来自５个工厂的管理人员的现场模拟实验,着重研究这类决策的不确定性和决策策略之间关系。结果发现,在新产品开发的决策中,决策策略随不确定状态而改变;决策情景的不确定程度和决策策略没有严格的—一对应关系;在四类不确定决策情景下,都有管理人员采用混合型策略。这一发现同混合扫瞄策略观点和垃圾罐模型的思想相一致。并且,随着决策情景的不确定程度加大,决策时间逐渐延长。最后我们提出了应继续研究的课题。     

Knowledge and quality-management activities’ influences on technology communication and innovation with African foreign investment experience

We examined how psychic distance moderates the association of South Korean chief executive officers’ (CEOs’) knowledge and quality management with their predisposition to invest in African technology and innovation markets. Participants were current and prospective South Korean African business investment senior managers (n = 64; 20 females; mean years in management = 19.4) or not (n = 187; 97 females, mean years in management = 15.9). Hierarchical regression analysis was used to analyse the relationships. Only quality management was significantly related to technology commercialisation capabilities and innovation performance among managers with African investment experience. However, both quality and knowledge management were significantly related to the outcomes among managers without African investment experience. The effect of psychic distance might be explained by risk averseness, in that those without experience of African investment might be with more risk avoidant than those with such experience.     

不确定情境中的决策心理——适应与认知

不确定情境中的决策问题广受经济学家和心理学家关注,但他们对人的决策行为有不同的解释。该简要回顾了经济学和心理学视野中的决策理论,包括预期效用理论、主观预期效用理论和前景理论。主要介绍了“生态理性”观对人的决策心理的研究,着重介绍了研究发现的几种启发式策略,如“一个理由策略”,并探讨了他们在人适应过程中的作用。中最后分析了决策问题的研究现状。     

An Experimental Investigation of Gender Bias in the Use of Management Information

In a previous study (Estes & Hosseini, 1988), we found that women report lower confidence than men in their investment decisions. As a continuation of that research, this study investigated the effect of gender (management and staff) on management confidence in forecasts prepared by corporate staff. An experiment was administered in a large manufacturing firm to 122 managers who use forecast information. Forecaster gender, age, education, and experience were varied between control and test groups. Manager confidence in forecast information was not affected by the gender of the forecaster or by other forecaster characteristics. Confidence was affected by manager education and experience but not by other personal manager characteristics including gender.     

How trust in financial supplier information impacts young adults' financial information involvement: The moderating roles of product savings risk and social norm

Although consumers' risk‐taking, supplier trust, social norms and information involvement are central to much of thought in the financial market and consumer economic literature, it is not known how the interplay between consumers' trust in supplier information, risk‐taking behaviour and social norm may influence information involvement. This research contributes to the consumer economic literature by investigating how product savings risk and social norm affect the relationship between young adults' trust in supplier information and their information involvement. On the basis of two samples with young adults who recently have purchased a low‐risk savings product (n = 641) and a high‐risk savings product (n = 219), respectively, several results are obtained. It is found that both product savings risk and social norm positively moderate the relationship between young adults' trust in supplier information and their information involvement. In addition, the results indicate that the three‐way interaction between trust in supplier information, products savings risk and social norm has a positive effect on information involvement. As direct implications, financial authorities and financial service managers should especially consider investing additional resources in developing information trust for high‐risk savings products and should also take social norms into account when considering young adults' high‐risk‐taking behaviour. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

行为金融学与心理学

由于理性经济人假设与实际的偏差,经典现代金融学遇到了一些被称为“未解之谜”的现实问题。行为金融学是从人们的实际决策行为出发来研究和解释金融市场的相关问题。因此,心理学的研究成果就成为行为金融学研究必不可少的基础。与投资者信念、偏好以及决策相关的情感心理学、认知心理学和社会心理学的研究成果在行为金融学各领域得到了广泛的应用。金融学与心理学两个领域的密切合作将推动行为金融学的进一步发展。     

INTERVIEWER DECISION PROCESSES AND EFFECTIVENESS: AN EXPERIMENTAL POLICY-CAPTURING INVESTIGATION

Using a policy-capturing approach, 29 corporate interviewers evaluated 64 hypothetical candidates for a position in a financial services organization. Six selection criteria were manipulated in a balanced factorial design. Interviewers evaluated candidates' qualifications and made hiring recommendations. The results revealed substantial individual differences in interviewers' decision strategies, as well as their insight into their own decision processes. Data on the effectiveness of the 29 interviewers were collected from 427 hiring managers and the decision processes of effective and ineffective interviewers were compared. The findings indicated that the decision strategies used by effective interviewers were quite similar to one another and relied heavily on two selection criteria. Also, effective interviewers were more likely than ineffective interviewers to use selection criteria in a manner that mirrored their self-reports of the importance of these criteria. Effective interviewers were more aware of their decision processes than ineffective interviewers.     

Win–Win–Win: The Influence of Company‐Sponsored Volunteerism Programs on Employees,NGOs, and Business Units

Although the number of firms adopting corporate volunteerism programs is rising steadily, very few firms are assessing the benefits of such programs on target groups, such as employees and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and identifying the conditions under which benefits to the various groups are maximized. This study addresses both by examining the conditions of employees’ corporate volunteer assignments that lead to increased employee engagement, sustainability of the volunteers’ project within the NGO, capability development for the business unit, and employees’ continuation of volunteerism. Using a longitudinal and multisource design, responses from 116 corporate volunteers from a global pharmaceutical organization are matched with responses from their NGO managers and their business unit managers at 3 points in time: at the start of the volunteer assignment, at the end of the assignment, and 6 months after the completion of the assignment. Across these outcomes, we found that employees’ volunteer assignments are most valuable when they are international, when the volunteers perceive that their projects contribute meaningfully the NGO's functioning, when volunteers have professional skills (and are able to use them), when there are opportunities for skills to be developed that can be applied in the volunteers’ regular work role, and when the NGOs have tangible resources to sustain the volunteers’ projects.