Risky choice: An examination of information acquisition behavior

The monitoring of information acquisition behavior, along with other process tracing measures such as response times, was used to examine how individuals process information about gambles into a decision. Subjects indicated preferences among specially constructed three-outcome gambles. The number of alternatives available was varied across the sets of gambles. A majority of the subjects processed information about the gambles in ways inconsistent with compensatory models of risky decision making, such as information integration (Anderson & Shanteau, 1970). Furthermore, the inconsistency between observed information acquisition behavior and such compensatory rules increased as the choice task became more complex. Alternative explanations of risky choice behavior are considered.     

The effects of response mode and importance on decision-making strategies: Judgment versus choice

Judgment and choice have not always been clearly distinguished, and there is little direct research on their effects on the decision process. As compared to choice, judgment is predicted to lead to more information searched, a less variable pattern of search, and a greater amount of interdimensional search. In essence, search processes that imply elimination by aspects will occur more often under choice than judgment. It is further argued that a number of variables may moderate this response mode effect. The potential moderator examined here is decision importance, which is predicted to produce analytical judgment processes prior to choice. Using an information search board, 104 subjects made decisions (choices or judgments) on candidates for residence hall advisor, under high or low decision importance. Response mode produced strong effects on all measures of the decision process. Importance had fewer effects; it affected the frequency of an intradimensional/variable search mode, but moderated the response mode effect only for amount of information searched. Given these results, several implications follow. Research which uses ajudgment response (e.g., policy capturing) should not be generalized to choice tasks. Also, requiring an explict judgment even when only the final choice matters may be a useful procedure. Further research is needed to examine the effects of response mode on additional outcomes, such as how the information is organized in memory and which alternative is actually selected.     

信息完整性与应聘者数量对不同认知闭合需要者招聘决策的影响

结合问卷和信息板技术,探讨了信息完整性和应聘者数量对不同认知闭合需要个体招聘决策过程发挥的潜在影响。结果显示：（1）高认知闭合需要招聘者平均决策时间更短,探索深度更浅,信息了解的更少;（2）信息完整条件下,招聘者平均决策时间更短,探索深度更浅;信息不完整条件下,低认知闭合需要招聘者的平均搜索时间增幅较大;（3）随着应聘者人数的增加,招聘者平均决策时间变长,低认知闭合需要招聘者平均搜索时间增幅较大,且两者探索模式都趋于属性加工。这意味着信息完整性与应聘者数量对不同认知闭合需要招聘者的决策影响不同,应注意培训招聘者的决策能力,提高员工招聘质量。     

JFGI: FROM DISTRIBUTED COGNITION TO DISTRIBUTED RELIABILISM*

While, prima facie, virtue/credit approaches in epistemology would appear to be in tension with distributed/extended approaches in cognitive science, Pritchard ( 2010 ) has recently argued that the tension here is only apparent, at least given a weak version of distributed cognition, which claims merely that external resources often make critical contributions to the formation of true belief, and a weak virtue theory, which claims merely that, whenever a subject achieves knowledge, his cognitive agency makes a significant contribution to the formation of a true belief. But the significance of the role played by the subject's cognitive agency in distributed cognitive systems is in fact highly variable: at one extreme, formation of a true belief seems clearly to be significantly creditable to the subject's agency; at the other extreme, however, the subject's agency plays such a peripheral role that it is at best unclear whether it should receive significant credit for formation of a true belief. The compatibility of distributed cognition and virtue epistemology thus turns on what it takes for a contribution to the formation of true belief to count as significant. This article argues that the inevitable vagueness of this notion suggests retreating from virtue epistemology to a form of process reliabilism and explores the prospects for a distributed reliabilist epistemology designed to fit smoothly with distributed cognition. In effect, distributed reliabilism radicalizes Goldberg's recent extended reliabilist view (Goldberg 2010 ) by allowing the process the reliability of which determines the epistemic status of a subject's belief to extend to include not only processing performed by other subjects but also processing performed by non‐human technological resources.     

Probabilistic judgements in deluded and non-deluded subjects

An experiment is described in which deluded subjects were compared with a non-deluded psychiatric control group and a normal control group on a probabilistic inference task. Deluded subjects were found to request less information before reaching a decision and to express higher certainty levels than either control group. They also exhibited over-confidence on estimates of the probability of a future event.

Delusion. A false personal belief based on incorrect inference about external reality and firmly sustained in spite of what almost everyone else believes and in spite of what constitutes incontrovertible and obvious proof or evidence to the contrary. The belief is not one ordinarily accepted by other members of the person's subculture. [American Psychiatric Association, 1980]     

Methodological issues in judgment and decision-making research: Concurrent verbal protocol validity and simultaneous traces of process

This paper examines two dimensions of concurrent verbal protocol validity. First, whether verbalization affects process and outcome (reactivity) was examined by comparing concurrent verbal protocol traces with those from a computer search process tracing method, the latter being a complete trace of information acquisition from experimental materials. Earlier findings that verbalization affects time were confirmed. However, verbalization did not affect amount and pattern of acquisition or accuracy of judgments. Second, whether concurrent verbal protocols are complete was examined by comparing concurrent verbal protocol and computer traces that were simultaneously obtained in a treatment in which subjects verbalized as they acquired information from the computer. The verbal traces less completely captured information acquisition behavior than computer search. This suggests that, although concurrent verbal protocols provide greater insight into decision behavior than computer search, the latter is a more reliable information-acquisition trace. Thus, if information acquisition is of primary interest and if computer search activities can be naturally integrated into performing the primary task, computer search is preferred to concurrent verbal protocols. However, if information use or retrieval from long-term memory is of primary interest, concurrent verbal protocols are preferred to computer search. Finally, this paper examined whether the simultaneous use of concurrent verbal protocols and computer search provides traces of information acquisition and use that are as complete as when each method is independently applied. Although computer search tended to limit subjects verbalizations of evaluative operators, this effect may be eliminated by practice on the computer prior to collecting data.     

Accounting and convincing: the effect of two types of justification on the decision process

The effect of two types of justification pressure on the decision process was investigated. Three groups of 15 subjects each had to choose the head of a corrective home for criminal adolescents out of six candidates, who were described on 16 attributes. Two groups worked under justification pressure: subjects in the Accounting group were informed that they had to explain their decision afterwards, subjects in the Convincing group that they had to convince the other members of the executive board to vote for their selected candidate. From the third group, no justification was requested. It was found that justification pressure leads to a distinct increase in the amount of utilized information and to a more elaborate choice process, while the global decision heuristics do not seem to change. The two justification groups did not differ in the amount of information utilized, but the Convincing group employed a more elaborate process. This result shows that justification pressure is one of the task characteristics affecting the decision process, and proves that a latent justification pressure as assumed in some decision theories does not have the same effect as an explicit one. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Self-attribution of attitude as a function of belief feedback

Previous research has found that subjects listening to a communication can be persuaded more when they receive false physiological feedback concerning their emotional state than when such feedback is not presented. Such results, in conjunction with Bem's (1972) postulate that subjects infer their attitude from the external circumstances of their behavior, suggested that false feedback of belief or disbelief would affect persuasion. Subjects listened to a speech while observing their (false) reactions on a "belief meter." Half of the subjects received strong positive belief feedback, and the other half received strong disbelief feedback. Demand characteristics were varied by telling half of the subjects in each group that the meter was highly reliable and valid and the other half that is was of questionable validity. Results showed that the meter feedback affected self-attributions of attitude. Subjects receiving disbelief feedback rated their attitude the same as a control group who merely completed the attitude scale. Subjects receiving belief feedback were persuaded more than a control group receiving only the communication. The implications of the data for the construct of attitude were discussed.     

Information search and decision making: The effects of information displays

Information display boards may be used to test assumptions about underlying cognitive processes in decision situations. However, the question may be raised whether information processing in a complex decision situation is indepemdent of the structure of the information display board used. In a study employing 96 subjects, the design of the information display board, the number of alternatives, and the number of attributes were varied. Twelve groups of eight subjects were presented with one hypothetical choice among riskless multiattribute decision alternatives (apartments). Results showed that information search patterns were not influenced by the design of the information display board, but that the relative number of attributes included in the decision process was. The number of available attributes appeared to be the strongest determinant of information search patterns. A higher number of attributes induced information search patterns consistent with the noncompensatory conjunctive decision rule. It is suggested that the decision situation employed, which forced the decision maker to remember each piece of information acquired, underlies the difference between the results in the present study and previous findings.     

The role of information presentation formats in belief updating

The effects of the format by which information is presented on the cognitive processes of belief updating were investigated in the present research. Because of the differences in the affordance of verbal vs. numerical information, it is predicted that the belief updating processes involved in processing verbal and numerical information would be different. Specifically, the additive rule is used to combine information using verbal formats, while the averaging rule is used to combine information using numerical formats. Two experiments were conducted to test these hypotheses. Experiment 1 tested the belief updating process in the positive direction, and Experiment 2 tested the process in the negative direction. Two independent variables were manipulated: information presentation format (verbal vs numerical) and presentation order (strong–weak vs weak–strong). The participants were asked to adjust their purchase likelihood of a consumer product based on the sequential presentations of two experts' opinions. These two opinions varied in their formats (verbal vs. numerical) and strengths (strong vs weak). The two opinions were presented in either the strong–weak order or the weak–strong order. Participants were instructed to first anchor their purchase likelihood at 50%, and then adjust the purchase likelihood, first based on the first expert's opinion, and second based on both experts' opinions. In both experiments the hypotheses that participants employed an additive rule to integrate verbal information and an averaging rule to integrate numerical information were supported.     

“先扬后抑”vs.“先抑后扬”:反馈顺序对决策信心建构的影响

本研究采用2×3被试内设计,通过操纵不同性质信息的反馈比例和反馈顺序,重点考察了反馈顺序对决策信心动态建构的影响。结果表明:(1)在不同反馈比例条件下,当个体接收到的正性反馈多于负性反馈时,个体的决策信心上升,反之则下降;当个体接收到的正性反馈等于负性反馈时,个体的决策信心下降,表现出"负性偏向";(2)"先扬后抑"与"先抑后扬"的信息反馈顺序对决策信心的动态建构产生了不同影响,表现出类似于"近因效应"的现象,"惊讶假设(surprise hypothesis)"可为此提供解释。本研究表明,在决策信心的动态建构过程中,信息的反馈顺序发挥着重要作用。     

Evaluation of job candidates with missing information: Effects of attribute importance and interattribute correlation

How do people make evaluations when important items of information are missing? In the context of personnel evaluations or product evaluations, researchers have proposed that decision makers may predict the missing attribute based on its assumed relationship to attributes that are present. In addition, some researchers have suggested that there is a penalty for missing information. An experiment was conducted to investigate the influence of the importance of the missing attribute on the hypothesized inference effect. Hypothetical job candidates were evaluated based on one or two attributes. The correlation between the attributes was varied between groups of subjects as was the importance of one of the attributes. The pattern of ratings of candidates with missing information varied significantly with the correlation condition when the missing attribute was very important, but did not vary as much when the missing attribute was less important. The results were generally consistent with the predictions of the Inferred Information Model (Johnson and Levin, 1985). On average, candidates with missing information were rated lower than comparable candidates with complete information and the missing attribute at an average level.     

Habit,information acquisition,and the process of making travel mode choices

Three studies examined the role of habit on information acquisition concerning travel mode choices. On the basis of Triandis' (1980) model of attitude–behaviour relations it was expected that habit strength attenuates the elaborateness of choice processes. The studies focused on different phases in the choice process, namely the appreciation of situational cues and appreciation of choice option information. In line with expectations, it was found that, compared to weak habit participants, those who had a strong habit towards choosing a particular travel mode acquired less information and gave evidence of less elaborate choice strategies. It was attempted to break effects of habit by manipulating either accountability demands or level of attention. Although accountability demands raised the level of information acquisition, no interactions with habit were found. Enhanced attention to the choice process initially did override habit effects in a series of choice trials. However, in spite of this manipulation, chronic habit effects emerged during later trials. The results demonstrate the profound effects that habit may have on the appreciation of information about choice situations and choice options. ©1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of task complexity on information use in multi-attribute decision making

This study presents a process analysis of multi-attribute decision making. The decision problems concerned the selection of the most suitable candidate for a job opening. The problems varied in terms of complexity, i.e. the number of candidates and the number of attributes used to describe these alternatives. Results show that with an increasing number of alternatives, subjects (N = 48) used fewer attributes for the evaluation of alternatives, and made, on average, less references to the alternatives. The type of judgment most often used was absolute dimensional (comparison of an attribute to an absolute standard) and was used more often at the beginning than toward the end of the decision process. Overall, judgments were predominantly positive. The percentage of positive judgments decreased with increasing complexity, and toward the end of the decision process. Significantly more judgments, particularly positive ones, concerned the finally chosen alternative as compared to the rest of the alternatives. Finally, analysis of subjects' usage of decision rules revealed that increasing the number of alternatives resulted in an increasing use of elimination strategies. Implications of these findings for the design of decision aids will be discussed.     

Principle explanation and strategic schema abstraction in problem solving

This study was undertaken to examine the effects of strategic schema-acquisition tasks (problem comparison or problem construction) and the method of principle explanation (abstract or embedded principle method) on schema acquisition. Ninety-eight subjects studied a set of problems in probability, presented according to either method of principle explanation. Half the subjects in each principle-explanation group were then asked to compare analogous problems, and the rest constructed new analogous problems. To determine whether subjects generalized problem schemas, they were given new analogous problems to solve. The results showed that when the abstract principle method was used, schema acquisition was better in problem comparison; but with the embedded principle method, schema acquisition was better in problem construction. Results were discussed in relation to the importance of some fit between the presentation of problem information and the processes that will draw from or build on this information in tasks designed to allow novice problem solvers to acquire advanced problem representations.     

Justification and the Processing of Information

This study explores, within the context of escalating commitment, how ambiguous information affects decision making. By analyzing subjects' looking times and allocation decisions, we examined the process by which individuals abstract and use information to arrive at their decisions. We found that subjects spent more time processing ambiguous information than they did either purely optimistic or purely pessimistic information. This tendency to process ambiguous information longer increased when the decision maker was not exonerated from blame for the failure of an original decision; presented with ambiguous information, nonex-onerated subjects also made smaller allocations than did exonerated subjects. In this study, the predominant effect of felt responsibility on allocations was withdrawal rather than escalation. Our results suggest that the ambiguity of information about the future plays an important role in escalation and that the combination of responsibility and failure may affect allocations only when the prospective information is ambiguous.     

The effects of routine strength on adaptation and information search in recurrent decision making

The strength of decision routines was manipulated within a computer-controlled micro world simulation involving recurrent decision making. During a learning phase, participants were led to prefer a certain brand of an industrial good either about 15 times in a weak routine or about 30 times in a strong routine condition. In the test phase of Experiment 1, participants were confronted with changes in the microworld that rendered the routine obsolete. Routine maintenance over a series of repeated acquisition decisions was assessed as the major dependent variable. Although new information clearly suggested that a deviation from the routine would be beneficial, strong routine participants were more likely to maintain the routine compared to weak routine participants and a control group in which a comparable option (same outcome probabilities as the routine) carried an unfamiliar brand label. Experiment 2 investigated the effects of routine strength on information search. After having learned the routine, participants were asked to make one final decision involving the routine. The task was either framed as being similar to the learning task or as being novel. Before making the final decision, participants were asked to consider new information about the alternatives. Strong routine participants in the familiar task condition preferred information that favored the routine and avoided unfavorable information. If the task was framed as being novel, such confirmation biases disappeared completely. In contrast, weak routine participants exhibited a moderate confirmation bias in their searches independent from task framing.