Testing 40 Predictions From the Transtheoretical Model Again,With Confidence

Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions. The focus of a study is shifted to a quantitative approach in contrast to the NHST dyadic decision centered on testing a prediction not based on the theory. This article describes the TTQP as an alternative approach by replicating and extending a test of 40 a priori predictions based on the Transtheoretical Model (TTM). Specific quantitative predictions were made about the magnitude of the effect size (ω²). The predictions involved movement from 1 of 3 initial stages (Precontemplation, Contemplation, and Preparation) to stage membership 12 months later. In the initial study, 36 of the 40 predictions were confirmed. The same 40 predictions are evaluated on a sample (N = 3,923) of smokers recruited from a large New England HMO for a smoking cessation study. The predictions were recalibrated based on the first study and 99% confidence intervals were employed to test the predictions. Thirty-two of the 40 predictions were confirmed. Of the 8 failures, 4 were judged to reflect a need for further recalibration, 1 was attributed to sampling fluctuation, and 3 suggested revisions of the theory are needed. The results provide overall support for the TTM. The study also illustrates some of the challenges of testing quantitative predictions.     

Comparative longitudinal structural analyses of the growth and decline of multiple intellectual abilities over the life span.

Latent growth curve techniques and longitudinal data are used to examine predictions from the theory of fluid and crystallized intelligence (Gf-Gc theory; J. L. Horn & R. B. Cattell, 1966, 1967). The data examined are from a sample (N approximately 1,200) measured on the Woodcock-Johnson Psycho-Educational Battery-Revised (WJ-R). The longitudinal structural equation models used are based on latent growth models of age using two-occasion "accelerated" data (e.g., J. J. McArdle & R. Q. Bell, 2000; J. J. McArdle & R. W. Woodcock, 1997). Nonlinear mixed-effects growth models based on a dual exponential rate yield a reasonable fit to all life span cognitive data. These results suggest that most broad cognitive functions fit a generalized curve that rises and falls. Novel multilevel models directly comparing growth curves show that broad fluid reasoning (Gf) and acculturated crystallized knowledge (Gc) have different growth patterns. In all comparisons, any model of cognitive age changes with only a single g factor yields an overly simplistic view of growth and change over age.     

A front end to a theory of picture recognition

We describe the results of four picture-recognition memory experiments in which we systematically manipulated four variables: stimulus duration, stimulus contrast, the duration of a blank gap between successive presentations of the same stimulus, and the presence or absence of a noise mask that immediately followed stimulus offset. The patterns of obtained data confirmed a simple extension of a theory previously used to account for digit recall data. This theory consists of a low-pass linearfilter front end that generates a sensory response from the physical stimulus, followed by an informationsampling process whose instantaneous sampling rate is based in part on the sensory response magnitude. The data confirm both qualitative and quantitative theoretical predictions, some of which were previously untestable in digit recall tasks because of ceiling effects that were not present in our picturerecognition tasks. We describe the role of our theory within the broader family of picture-memory theories, and we briefly discuss our theory’s unification of two salient facets of visual behavior: information acquisition on the one hand, and phenomenological appearance on the other hand.     

BODY DISSATISFACTION AND DISORDERED EATING AMONG COLLEGE WOMEN IN CHINA, SOUTH KOREA, AND THE UNITED STATES: CONTRASTING PREDICTIONS FROM SOCIOCULTURAL AND FEMINIST THEORIES

Body dissatisfaction and disordered eating were compared across groups of college women from China ( n = 109), South Korea ( n = 137), and the United States ( n = 102). Based on cultural differences in the amount of exposure to Western appearance standards, particularly the thin-body ideal, sociocultural theory ( Thompson, Heinberg, Altabe, & Tantleff-Dunn, 1999 ) would predict that body dissatisfaction and disordered eating would be highest in the U.S. sample and lowest in the Chinese sample. In contrast, based on the speed and pervasiveness of changes in women's roles, feminist theory ( Bordo, 1993 ; Jeffreys, 2005 ) would predict that body dissatisfaction and disordered eating would be highest in the Korean sample and lowest in the U.S. sample. Multidimensional measures indicated the highest levels of body dissatisfaction and disordered eating in the Korean sample and the lowest levels in the U.S. sample, indicating that predictions derived from feminist theory were a better fit to the data than predictions derived from sociocultural theory. Results indicated that theoretical understandings of body dissatisfaction must recognize not only differences between Western and non-Western cultures, but also differences among non-Western cultures.     

Description and Evaluation of a Measurement Technique for Assessment of Performing Gender

The influence of masculinity and femininity on behaviors and outcomes has been extensively studied in social science research using various measurement strategies. In the present paper, we describe and evaluate a measurement technique that uses existing survey items to capture the extent to which an individual behaves similarly to their same-gender peers. We use data from the first four waves of The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), a nationally representative sample of adolescents (age 12–18) in the United States who were re-interviewed at ages 13–19, 18–26, and 24–32. We estimate split-half reliability and provide evidence that supports the validity of this measurement technique. We demonstrate that the resulting measure does not perform as a trait measure and is associated with involvement in violent fights, a pattern consistent with theory and empirical findings. This measurement technique represents a novel approach for gender researchers with the potential for expanding our current knowledge base.     

Necessary versus sufficient causal schemata: Attributions for achievement in difficult and easy tasks

Previous research on Kelley's schemata for multiple sufficient and multiple necessary causes has failed to examine the hypothesis that a schema influences both predictions of an event and attributions of its causes. This research examined the effects of the difficulty of a hypothetical exam on predictions of exam grades, and on attributions of ability and effort. Exam difficulty influenced both the pattern of judgments of grades and reported beliefs in multiple necessary versus multiple sufficient causes. Contrary to the predictions of the schema theory, exam difficulty had little influence on the pattern of attributions of ability and effort. Kelley's concept of a causal schema is reinterpreted in terms of current views of human judgment, and the possible implications of the data for the interpretations of a causal schema are examined. The results question the assumption that attributions are based on beliefs about how causes combine to determine an effect, and suggest further research on the relationship between predictions and attributions.     

Mental models and omissive causation

Some causal relations refer to causation by commission (e.g., “A gunshot causes death”), and others refer to causation by omission (e.g., “Not breathing causes death”). We describe a theory of the representation of omissive causation based on the assumption that people mentally simulate sets of possibilities—mental models—that represent causes, enabling conditions, and preventions (Goldvarg & Johnson-Laird, 2001). The theory holds that omissive causes, enabling conditions, and preventions each refer to distinct sets of possibilities. For any such causal relation, reasoners typically simulate one initial possibility, but they are able to consider alternative possibilities through deliberation. These alternative possibilities allow them to deliberate over finer-grained distinctions when reasoning about causes and effects. Hence, reasoners should be able to distinguish between omissive causes and omissive enabling conditions. Four experiments corroborated the predictions of the theory. We describe them and contrast the results with the predictions of alternative accounts of causal representation and inference.     

Patterns of Conflict Resolution Within Relationships and Coercive Sexual Behavior of Men and Women

Conflict tactics within relationships and coercive sexual behavior are separate phenomena that are empirically related. To answer why they should be related, we drew upon two theoretical frameworks: an individualized form of cultural spillover and feminist control theory. Using an ANOVA framework, we constructed hypotheses through which we could (1) test for relations among constructs and (2) discriminate between the predictions of cultural spillover and feminist theory. We hypothesized that the severity of individuals' coercive sexual behavior would be related to the violence level of conflict tactics in relationships and also to a pattern of generalized psychological abuse within relationships. We also hypothesized that men, compared to women, would engage in more physically coercive sexual behavior and use more violence in conflict tactics. University students (50% women, 93% <23 years old, from a school with 73% White students) responded to the measures. With the exception of the last hypothesis, these predictions were supported by the overall data, although not universally within levels of gender. Based on the pattern of hypothesis confirmation and inconsistencies, we discuss the mix of support and potential moderators that would resolve inconsistencies for each theory.     

Temperament and adolescent substance use: an epigenetic approach to risk and protection

We outline an epigenetic approach to understanding the relation between simple dispositional characteristics and complex problem behaviors, with a focus on adolescent substance use. Epigenetic theory predicts that effects of temperament are mediated through self-control and risk-taking tendency, isomorphic attributes that are based in temperament but represent developmental elaborations of these characteristics. We describe how the research program has confirmed predictions from epigenetic theory, addressed additional questions embodied in the theory, and clarified the multiple pathways from temperament characteristics to life stress, social relationships, and motives for substance use. In a final section, we discuss implications for the study of problem behavior and psychopathology.     

Understanding and solving arithmetic word problems: A computer simulation

In this paper, I describe a computer program, WORDPRO, which simulates the psychological processes involved when third-grade children understand and solve simple arithmetic word problems. Both the implementation of the program and its performance on a set of sample problems are presented. WORDPRO is a useful research tool in that it demonstrates the sufficiency of the theory upon which it is based, assists in communicating that theory to other researchers, and provides a sources of empirical predictions for experimental tests of the theory.     

The bicoherence theory of situational irony

Situational irony concerns what it is about a situation that causes people to describe it as ironic. Although situational irony is as complex and commonplace as verbal and literary irony, it has received nowhere near the same attention from cognitive scientists and other scholars. This paper presents the bicoherence theory of situational irony, based on the theory of conceptual coherence (Kunda & Thagard, 1996; Thagard & Verbeurgt, 1998). On this theory, a situation counts as ironic when it is conceived as having a bicoherent conceptual structure, adequate cognitive salience, and evokes an appropriate configuration of emotions. The theory is applied to a corpus of 250 examples of situational ironies gathered automatically from electronic news sources. A useful taxonomy of situational ironies is produced, new predictions and insights into situational irony are discussed, and extensions of the theory to other forms of irony are examined.     

Perceptual load in sport and the heuristic value of the perceptual load paradigm in examining expertise-related perceptual-cognitive adaptations

In two experiments, we transferred perceptual load theory to the dynamic field of team sports and tested the predictions derived from the theory using a novel task and stimuli. We tested a group of college students (N = 33) and a group of expert team sport players (N = 32) on a general perceptual load task and a complex, soccer-specific perceptual load task in order to extend the understanding of the applicability of perceptual load theory and further investigate whether distractor interference may differ between the groups, as the sport-specific processing task may not exhaust the processing capacity of the expert participants. In both, the general and the specific task, the pattern of results supported perceptual load theory and demonstrates that the predictions of the theory also transfer to more complex, unstructured situations. Further, perceptual load was the only determinant of distractor processing, as we neither found expertise effects in the general perceptual load task nor the sport-specific task. We discuss the heuristic utility of using response-competition paradigms for studying both general and domain-specific perceptual-cognitive adaptations.     

Infant pattern vision: A new approach based on the contrast sensitivity function

Current approaches to the study of infant pattern vision have yielded interesting findings but have not yielded a set of data or principles from which general predictions can be drawn. We propose an alternative approach based on measurements of the contrast sensitivity function (CSF). This approach has been successfully applied to the study of adult vision. In principle, the approach allows one to predict the detectability of a wide variety of two-dimensional patterns if one knows the observer's CSF. Two experiments were conducted. In Experiment 1, CSFs of 1-, 2-, and 3-month infants were measured using a fixation preference paradigm. The results indicated noteworthy development between 1 and 3 months particularly in sensitivity to high spatial frequencies (fine stripes). The low-frequency attenuation characteristic of adult vision is observed at 2 and 3 months but not always at 1. In Experiment 2, CSFs of 2-month infants were measured at a lower luminance level. The results indicated that low-frequency attenuation became less pronounced as would be predicted if it were a manifestation of lateral inhibitory processing. The manner in which the CSF can be used to make general predictions is described. The CSFs of Experiment 1 are then used to successfully predict infants' detection of patterns used in two frequently cited experiments. We also propose a simple model of infant pattern preference and show that the model accurately predicts the results of a number of well-known experiments.     

Comparison of Modern Methods for Analyzing Repeated Measures Data With Missing Values

Missing data are a pervasive problem in many psychological applications in the real world. In this article we study the impact of dropout on the operational characteristics of several approaches that can be easily implemented with commercially available software. These approaches include the covariance pattern model based on an unstructured covariance matrix (CPM-U) and the true covariance matrix (CPM-T), multiple imputation-based generalized estimating equations (MI-GEE), and weighted generalized estimating equations (WGEE). Under the missing at random mechanism, the MI-GEE approach was always robust. The CPM-T and CPM-U methods were also able to control the error rates provided that certain minimum sample size requirements were met, whereas the WGEE was more prone to inflated error rates. In contrast, under the missing not at random mechanism, all evaluated approaches were generally invalid. Our results also indicate that the CPM methods were more powerful than the MI-GEE and WGEE methods and their superiority was often substantial. Furthermore, we note that little or no power was sacrificed by using CPM-U method in place of CPM-T, although both methods have less power in situations where some participants have incomplete data. Some aspects of the CPM-U and MI-GEE methods are illustrated using real data from 2 previously published data sets. The first data set comes from a randomized study of AIDS patients with advanced immune suppression, the second from a cohort of patients with schizotypal personality disorder enrolled in a prevention program for psychosis.     

Testing expectancy theory predictions using behaviorally based measures of motivational effort for engineers

Expectancy theory predictions were tested using a sample of engineers who had been rated on dimensions of work motivation or effort (in contrast to performance) using the behaviorally based rating scales designed by Landy and Guion (1970). It was found that the expectancy model was only weakly upheld for an older (41 or older) age subgroup, while few relationships were observed for a younger (below 41) age group. Also, the motivational behavior scales did not show any enhanced predictability when compared to a more global rating of job performance.     

Models of recognition, repetition priming, and fluency: exploring a new framework

We present a new modeling framework for recognition memory and repetition priming based on signal detection theory. We use this framework to specify and test the predictions of 4 models: (a) a single-system (SS) model, in which one continuous memory signal drives recognition and priming; (b) a multiple-systems-1 (MS1) model, in which completely independent memory signals (such as explicit and implicit memory) drive recognition and priming; (c) a multiple-systems-2 (MS2) model, in which there are also 2 memory signals, but some degree of dependence is allowed between these 2 signals (and this model subsumes the SS and MS1 models as special cases); and (d) a dual-process signal detection (DPSD1) model, 1 possible extension of a dual-process theory of recognition (Yonelinas, 1994) to priming, in which a signal detection model is augmented by an independent recollection process. The predictions of the models are tested in a continuous-identification-with-recognition paradigm in both normal adults (Experiments 1-3) and amnesic individuals (using data from Conroy, Hopkins, & Squire, 2005). The SS model predicted numerous results in advance. These were not predicted by the MS1 model, though could be accommodated by the more flexible MS2 model. Importantly, measures of overall model fit favored the SS model over the others. These results illustrate a new, formal approach to testing theories of explicit and implicit memory.     

Suicide Risk across Latent Class Subgroups: A Test of the Generalizability of the Interpersonal Psychological Theory of Suicide

It remains unclear whether the Interpersonal Psychological Theory of Suicide (IPTS; Joiner, 2005 ) is generalizable to the population or holds more explanatory power for certain subgroups compared to others. The aim of this study was to (1) identify subgroups of individuals who endorsed suicide ideation in the past month based on a range of mental health and demographic variables, (2) compare levels of the IPTS constructs within these subgroups, and (3) test the IPTS predictions for suicide ideation and suicide attempt for each group. Latent class, negative binomial, linear, and logistic regression analyses were conducted on population‐based data obtained from 1,321 adults recruited from Facebook. Among participants reporting suicide ideation, four distinct patterns of risk factors emerged based on age and severity of mental health symptoms. Groups with highly elevated mental health symptoms reported the highest levels of thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness. Tests of the IPTS interactions provided partial support for the theory, primarily in young adults with elevated mental health symptoms. Lack of support found for the IPTS predictions across the subgroups and full sample in this study raise some questions around the broad applicability of the theory.     

Falsifying Merton's Macro-Level Anomie Theory of Profit-Motivated Crime: A Research Note

The objective of our article is straightforward. We seek to derive, and to confront with data, an empirical model of Robert K. Merton's macro-level, anomie theory of profit-motivated crime. We use Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression equations to estimate the joint effects of measures of the acceptance of material success goals and absolute and relative deprivation, respectively, on cross-national rates of drug trafficking. Consistent with the predictions derived from Mertonian anomie theory, the coefficients for the product terms (the acceptance of success goals × absolute deprivation and the acceptance of success goals × relative deprivation) are significant and positive. This investigation provides what we believe is the first evaluation of the Mertonian proposition that the cultural (goals) and structural (means) components of social systems operate together to increase the level of profit-motivated crime. What is missing, of course, is a measure of anomie. We are forced to infer that anomie is the causal mechanism that links the joint influence of culture and social structure on pecuniary crime. Admittedly, this is an unavoidable limitation of the current investigation.