Bayesian IRT Guessing Models for Partial Guessing Behaviors

According to the recent Nation’s Report Card, 12th-graders failed to produce gains on the 2005 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) despite earning better grades on average. One possible explanation is that 12th-graders were not motivated taking the NAEP, which is a low-stakes test. We develop three Bayesian IRT mixture models to describe the results from a group of examinees including both nonguessers and partial guessers. The first assumes that the guesser answers questions based on his or her knowledge up to a certain test item, and guesses thereafter. The second model assumes that the guesser answers relatively easy questions based on his or her knowledge and guesses randomly on the remaining items. The third is constructed to describe more general low-motivation behavior. It assumes that the guesser gives less and less effort as he or she proceeds through the test. The models can provide not only consistent estimates of IRT parameters but also estimates of each examinee’s nonguesser/guesser status and degree of guessing behavior. We show results of a simulation study comparing the performance of the three guessing models to the 2PL-IRT model. Finally, an analysis of real data from a low-stakes test administered to university students is presented.     

Guessing Strategies, Aging, and Bias Effects in Perceptual Identification

In the typical single-stimulus perceptual identification task, accuracy is improved by prior study of test words, a repetition priming benefit. There is also a cost, inasmuch as previously studied words are likely to be produced (incorrectly) as responses if the test word is orthographically similar but not identical to a studied word. In two-alternative forced-choice perceptual identification, a test word is flashed and followed by two alternatives, one of which is the correct response. When the two alternatives are orthographically similar, test words identical to previously studied items are identified more accurately than new words (a benefit) but tests words orthographically similar to studied words are identified less accurately than new words (a cost). Ratcliff and McKoon (in press) argue that these are bias effects that arise in the decision stage of word identification. We report five experiments that examined the alternative hypothesis that these bias effects arise from postperceptual guessing strategies. In single-stimulus perceptual identification, repetition priming benefits were equally great for young and older adults who claimed to use deliberate guessing strategies and those who did not (Experiment 1). In contrast, only groups of young and older people who claimed to deliberately guess studied words in a two-alternative forced-choice task (Experiments 2 and 5) showed reliable benefits and costs. Costs and benefits were abolished in the two-alternative forced-choice task when a very long study list was used, presumably because the increased retrieval burden made the use of deliberate guessing strategies less attractive (Experiment 3). Under conditions similar to those of Experiment 3, repetition priming was observed in single-stimulus perceptual identification (Experiment 4). These results are consistent with the view that costs and benefits in the forced-choice perceptual identification task arise from deliberate guessing strategies but that those in the single-stimulus task do not. The possibility that the observed relationship between strategy reports and priming effects reflects erroneous postexperimental assessments of strategies by participants is also considered.     

Self-consciousness, outcome expectancy, and persistence

A study investigated persistence as a function of two variables: the disposition to be self-attentive (called private self-consciousness) and outcome feedback on a prior task that was described as closely related to the target task. More specifically, subjects first completed a concealed-figures test and were told that their performances were either very good or very poor. The second test, which ostensibly measured the same abilities, was an insolvable design problem that is commonly used to measure persistence. Feedback concerning prior outcomes had a direct influence on expectancies for the second task, but persistence on that task was a joint function of feedback and self-consciousness. That is, favorable feedback led to greater persistence than did unfavorable feedback, but only among subjects high in self-consciousness. This finding replicates and extends the results of several previous studies. Discussion centers on the relationship between the present research and an earlier experiment which yielded apparently different results.     

Perceived numerosity, item arrangement, and expectancy

Ten sets of dots ranging in number from 7 to 91 per set were presented to 54 subjects. Half were arranged regularly and half randomly. The regular sets were overestimated by an average of 22%, while the random were underestimated by 16% compared with the physical number. Evidence was presented showing that subjects expect results in the opposite direction. The findings are discussed in relation to the expectancy-contrast model of Birnbaum and Veit.     

Outcome expectancy,locus of attribution for expectancy,and self-directed attention as determinants of evaluations and performance

Are internal versus external attributions of responsibility for prior outcomes important determinants of subsequent performances? or is their effect limited to influencing the affective and evaluative experiences that are associated with the task outcomes? Recent theoretical statements appear to differ on this issue. The present study examined the question, while at the same time testing the influence of self-directed attention on the process under investigation. Subjects attempted a series of mazes in collaboration with an ostensible cosubject (actually a confederate). The pair experienced either three consecutive sucesses or three consecutive failures. Subjects were led to perceive the responsibility for these outcomes as residing primarily with themselves or primarily with their partner. Self-focus was manipulated (by a mirror) prior to attempting a fourth maze and completing a set of rating scales. Success-condition subjects performed better on the fourth maze in the mirror's presence than in its absence, whereas failure-condition subjects tended to perform more poorly in the mirror's presence than in its absence. The manipulation of internal versus external attributions did not influence behavior, but did influence subjects' affective and evaluative reactions to themselves and their partner. Discussion centers on the relationship between these findings and other recent findings in the areas of attribution and achievement-related behavior.     

The energization of health-behavior change: Examining the associations among autonomous self-regulation,subjective vitality,depressive symptoms,and tobacco abstinence

Most research on the psychological correlates of smoking behavior has focused on negative indices of wellness, but findings are mixed, contradictory, controversial, and, thus, inconclusive. This study, guided by self-determination theory, examined both positive (viz., vitality) and negative (viz., depressive symptoms) indices of psychological health as predictors of long-term tobacco abstinence in the context of a randomized clinical trial. It also examined autonomous self-regulation and cigarette use as predictors of psychological health. Results supported the proposed conditional indirect effect model in which change in cigarette use mediated the relation of change in autonomous self-regulation for smoking cessation to change in vitality, and this indirect effect was moderated by treatment condition. Further, change in vitality predicted long-term tobacco abstinence. Results for depressive symptoms were largely null. Discussion focuses on the importance of considering positive indices of psychological health for understanding the psychological correlates of smoking behavior.     

Internal-external expectancy, maladjustment and psychotherapeutic intervention.

This paper reviewed research on the relationship between internal-external expectancy, maladjustment and psychotherapeutic intervention. The implications drawn from the studies reviewed were: (a) externality is related to poor psychological adjustment and (b) psychotherapy can be effectively utilized to modify expectancy.     

Happiness, time consciousness, and subjective life expectancy.

84 men and 141 women enrolled at a university reported their sexes and ages, rated their happiness and their time consciousness, and estimated how many more years they expected to live. Men significantly overestimated their subjective life span compared to actuarial data. Women (but not men) who were happier tended to be younger, had greater subjective life expectancies, and felt that they had lived a smaller percentage of their total lives. Both older men and older women tended to be more time conscious.     

Memory complaint and memory performance in the elderly: The effects of memory-skills training and expectancy change

While the incidence of memory complaint has always been high among the elderly, recent research has demonstrated that there is often a discrepancy between subjective memory complaint and actual memory performance in this population. Four experimental groups were established to examine the relationship and the factors that may affect changes in memory complaint and memory performance. The groups consisted of a memory training condition, an expectancy change condition, an art discussion control condition, and an evaluation control condition. It was hypothesized that memory training sessions would be the most effective in increasing memory performance scores, and that the expectancy change sessions would significantly reduce the incidence of memory complaint. The findings provide support for these predictions and indicate that memory training programmes should teach strategies to facilitate memory while addressing older adults' expectations about memory performance.     

Artificial consciousness, artificial emotions, and autonomous robots

Nowadays for robots, the notion of behavior is reduced to a simple factual concept at the level of the movements. On another hand, consciousness is a very cultural concept, founding the main property of human beings, according to themselves. We propose to develop a computable transposition of the consciousness concepts into artificial brains, able to express emotions and consciousness facts. The production of such artificial brains allows the intentional and really adaptive behavior for the autonomous robots. Such a system managing the robot’s behavior will be made of two parts: the first one computes and generates, in a constructivist manner, a representation for the robot moving in its environment, and using symbols and concepts. The other part achieves the representation of the previous one using morphologies in a dynamic geometrical way. The robot’s body will be seen for itself as the morphologic apprehension of its material substrata. The model goes strictly by the notion of massive multi-agent’s organizations with a morphologic control.     

Exploring sex differences in expectancy,attribution, and academic achievement

Two studies were carried out to explore if sex differences in expectancy and attribution of achievement are related to sex differences in academic performance. Study I investigated expectancy and attribution of achievement, operationalized as grade point index, among 176 male and 116 female college freshmen. Men were found to form higher expectations for future grades. Attributions measured through assigning percentage weights to ability, luck, effort, and difficulty as causal explanations of one's grade point index showed that men make more ability and women more effort attributions. Despite these differences in expectancy and attribution patterns, men and women were found not to differ in their performance. In Study II 120 college freshmen, half of them male, half female, filled out questionnaires before and after a midterm examination. A subsample of 49 also completed the Bem Sex Role Inventory. The results basically confirm the previous study's findings, except in Study II, men and women gave equally high weights to effort as a cause. The results also show that a feminine sex-role orientation is associated with a debilitating pattern of expectancy and attribution and lower performance, especially among women. Implications of the results for unraveling inconsistencies in the attribution literature and for a need to clarify connotations of femininity are discussed.The author wishes to express her gratitude to the members of the Psychology and Guidance Division of the College of Basic Studies, Boston University, for their assistance in preparing the questionnaire and collecting the data for Study I. Research for Study II was supported by grant MH 31181-01 from the National Institute of Mental Health. Mark Nachbar provided assistance in analyzing the data to both studies. Jan Mokros, Joseph Pleck, and Dan Jaquette provided valuable comments on an earlier version of this article.