Estimating Incremental Validity Under Missing Data

A common form of missing data is caused by selection on an observed variable (e.g., Z). If the selection variable was measured and is available, the data are regarded as missing at random (MAR). Selection biases correlation, reliability, and effect size estimates when these estimates are computed on listwise deleted (LD) data sets. On the other hand, maximum likelihood (ML) estimates are generally unbiased and outperform LD in most situations, at least when the data are MAR. The exception is when we estimate the partial correlation. In this situation, LD estimates are unbiased when the cause of missingness is partialled out. In other words, there is no advantage of ML estimates over LD estimates in this situation. We demonstrate that under a MAR condition, even ML estimates may become biased, depending on how partial correlations are computed. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about how future researchers might estimate partial correlations even when the cause of missingness is unknown and, perhaps, unknowable.     

Methodological Challenges in Causal Research on Racial and Ethnic Patterns of Cognitive Trajectories: Measurement, Selection, and Bias

Research focused on understanding how and why cognitive trajectories differ across racial and ethnic groups can be compromised by several possible methodological challenges. These difficulties are especially relevant in research on racial and ethnic disparities and neuropsychological outcomes because of the particular influence of selection and measurement in these contexts. In this article, we review the counterfactual framework for thinking about causal effects versus statistical associations. We emphasize that causal inferences are key to predicting the likely consequences of possible interventions, for example in clinical settings. We summarize a number of common biases that can obscure causal relationships, including confounding, measurement ceilings/floors, baseline adjustment bias, practice or retest effects, differential measurement error, conditioning on common effects in direct and indirect effects decompositions, and differential survival. For each, we describe how to recognize when such biases may be relevant and some possible analytic or design approaches to remediating these biases.     

Perception without awareness: perspectives from cognitive psychology

Four basic approaches that have been used to demonstrate perception without awareness are described. Each approach reflects one of two types of experimental logic and one of two possible methods for controlling awareness. The experimental logic has been either to demonstrate a dissociation between a measure of perception with awareness and a measure that is sensitive to perception without awareness or to demonstrate a qualitative difference between the consequences of perception with and without awareness. Awareness has been controlled either by manipulating the stimulus conditions or by instructing observers on how to distribute their attention. The experimental findings based on all four approaches lead to the same conclusion; namely, stimuli are perceived even when observers are unaware of the stimuli. This conclusion is supported by results of studies in which awareness has been assessed with either objective measures of forced-choice discriminations or measures based on verbalizations of subjective conscious experiences. Given this solid empirical support for the concept of perception without awareness, a direction for future research studies is to assess the functions of information perceived without awareness in determining what is perceived with awareness. The available evidence suggests that information perceived without awareness both biases what stimuli are perceived with awareness and influences how stimuli perceived with awareness are consciously experienced.     

Analyzing the Rate at Which Languages Lose the Influence of a Common Ancestor

Analyzing the rate at which languages change can clarify whether similarities across languages are solely the result of cognitive biases or might be partially due to descent from a common ancestor. To demonstrate this approach, we use a simple model of language evolution to mathematically determine how long it should take for the distribution over languages to lose the influence of a common ancestor and converge to a form that is determined by constraints on language learning. We show that modeling language learning as Bayesian inference of n binary parameters or the ordering of n constraints results in convergence in a number of generations that is on the order of n log n. We relax some of the simplifying assumptions of this model to explore how different assumptions about language evolution affect predictions about the time to convergence; in general, convergence time increases as the model becomes more realistic. This allows us to characterize the assumptions about language learning (given the models that we consider) that are sufficient for convergence to have taken place on a timescale that is consistent with the origin of human languages. These results clearly identify the consequences of a set of simple models of language evolution and show how analysis of convergence rates provides a tool that can be used to explore questions about the relationship between accounts of language learning and the origins of similarities across languages.     

Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment

Previous studies showed that random error can explain overconfidence effects typically observed in the literature. One of these studies concluded that, after accounting for random error effects in the data, there is little support for cognitive‐processing biases in confidence elicitation. In this paper, we investigate more closely the random error explanation for overconfidence. We generated data from four models of confidence and then estimated the magnitude of random error in the data. Our results show that, in addition to the true magnitude of random error specified in the simulations, the error estimates are influenced by important cognitive‐processing biases in the confidence elicitation process. We found that random error in the response process can account for the degree of overconfidence found in calibration studies, even when that overconfidence is actually caused by other factors. Thus, the error models say little about whether cognitive biases are present in the confidence elicitation process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Colour cues or spatial cues? Context-dependent preferences in the European greenfinch (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Carduelis chloris</Emphasis>)

Using featural cues such as colour to identify ephemeral food can increase foraging efficiency. Featural cues may change over time however; therefore, animals should use spatial cues to relocate food that occurs in a temporally stable position. We tested this hypothesis by measuring the cue preferences of captive greenfinches Carduelis chloris when relocating food hidden in a foraging tray. In these standardised associative learning trials, greenfinches favoured colour cues when returning to a foraging context that they had encountered before only once (“one-trial test”) but switched to spatial cues when they had encountered that scenario on ten previous occasions (“repeated-trial test”). We suggest that repeated encounters generated a context in which individuals had a prior expectation of temporal stability, and hence context-dependent cue selection. Next, we trained birds to find food in the absence of colour cues but tested them in the presence of visual distracters. Birds were able to learn spatial cues after one encounter, but only when visual distracters were identical in colouration. When a colourful distracter was present in the test phase, cue selection was random. Unlike the first one-trial test, birds were not biased towards this colourful visual distracter. Together, these results suggest that greenfinches are able to learn both cue types, colour cue biases represent learning, not simply distraction, and spatial cues are favoured over colour cues only in temporally stable contexts.     

Risk of bias in trial-based economic evaluations: Identification of sources and bias-reducing strategies

Objective: The objectives of this article are first to give an overview of the risks of bias in trial-based economic evaluations and, second, to identify how key sources for bias can be revealed and overcome (i.e. what bias-reducing strategies might be employed) in future trial-based economic evaluations in the field of health psychology.

Design: Narrative review discussing sources of bias in trial-based economic evaluations and bias-reducing strategies.

Results: We identified 11 biases and assigned them to a particular trial phase. A distinction is made between pre-trial biases, biases during the trial and biases that are relevant after the actual trial. All potential forms of bias are discussed in detail and strategies are shown to detect and overcome these biases.

Conclusion: In order to avoid bias in trial-based economic evaluations, one has to be aware of all the possible forms of bias. All stakeholders have to examine trial-based economic evaluations in a rigorous and stringent manner. This article can be helpful in this examination as it gives an overview of the possible biases which researchers should take into account.     

Bias in exponential and power function fits due to noise: Comment on Myung,Kim, and Pitt

Myung, Kim, and Pitt (2000) demonstrated that simple power functions almost always provide a better fit to purely random data than do simple exponential functions. This result has important implications, because it suggests that high noise levels, which are common in psychological experiments, may cause a bias favoring power functions. We replicate their result and extend it by showing strong bias for more realistic sample sizes. We also show that biases occur for data that contain both random and systematic components, as may be expected in real data. We then demonstrate that these biases disappear for two- or three-parameter functions that include linear parameters (in at least one parameterization). Our results suggest that one should exercise caution when proposing simple power and exponential functions as models of learning. More generally, our results suggest that linear parameters should be estimated rather than fixed when one is comparing the fit of nonlinear models to noisy data.     

Induced processing biases have causal effects on anxiety

After briefly describing the nature of emotional processing biases associated with vulnerability to anxiety, and a model of how they may be produced, we review new data on the experimental induction of attentional and interpretative biases. We show that these biases can be readily induced in the laboratory, in the absence of mood changes. However, induced biases exert effects on the processing of new information and cause congruent changes in state anxiety when they influence how emotionally significant information is encoded. We can therefore conclude that biases have causal effects on vulnerability to anxiety via their influence on how significant events are processed. Finally, we discuss how our model might account for the acquisition of processing bias and for when they can influence anxiety.     

Randomness in retrospect: Exploring the interactions between memory and randomness cognition

People tend to believe that sequences of random events produce fewer and shorter streaks than is actually the case. Although this error has been demonstrated repeatedly and in many forms, nearly all studies of randomness cognition have focused on how people think about random events occurring in the present or future. This article examines how our biased beliefs about randomness interact with properties of memory to influence our judgments about and memory for past random events. We explore this interaction by examining how beliefs about randomness affect our memory for random events and how certain properties of memory alter our tendency to categorize events as random. Across three experiments, we demonstrate an interaction between randomness cognition and three well-established but distinct properties of memory: (1) the reconstructive nature of memory, (2) primacy and recency effects, and (3) duration neglect. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Administrative Assumptions in Top‐Down Selection: A Test in Graduate School Admission Decisions

Although top‐down selection is the gold standard for making personnel decisions, several administrative assumptions must be met for it to be effective. We discuss three of these assumptions and test two of them: (1) top applicants will accept an offer, and (2) the time organisations give applicants to consider an offer will not influence the availability of next‐tier applicants. We also examine the effectiveness of top‐down selection by comparing it to an administratively simpler procedure, random selection above a threshold. Using archival admissions data from three university graduate psychology programs, we found that top applicants were less likely to accept an offer; however, waiting time did not influence applicant availability. In comparing the quality of applicants actually selected (with a top‐down procedure) with the quality of applicants selected at random (from above five progressively stringent thresholds), we found that at higher admission thresholds, random selection resulted in better or equal quality applicants as top‐down selection, depending on the criteria. We discuss implications for future research and practice.     

Calibration processes in a serial talent test

ObjectivesIn the beginning of serial evaluations, raters assess performances without knowledge about following performances. We assume that judges must observe a certain number of performances to calibrate their judgment scale, leading to systematic biases (avoidance of extreme judgments) in the beginning of judgment series. The present experiment investigates how many performance observations are necessary to calibrate internal judgment scales, leading to consistent judgments.DesignA between-group design was used.MethodVideos of a talent-test were presented in different orders. Every performance was presented in early, medium, and late positions. Thirty participants rated these series and we assessed the effect of performance position on performance evaluations.ResultsWe found calibration biases within the first nine performances; after that, evaluations remained stable and consistent.ConclusionCalibration processes are completed after a specific number of judgments; this implies interesting interventions for consistent judgments independent of the position in a series.     

Negative mood disrupts self- and reward-biases in perceptual matching

There are established effects of self- and reward-biases even on simple perceptual matching tasks [Sui, J., He, X., &; Humphreys, G. W. (2012). Perceptual effects of social salience: Evidence from self-prioritization effects on perceptual matching. Journal of Experimental Psychology, Human Perception and Performance, 38, 1105–1117]; however we know little about whether these biases can be modulated by particular interventions, and whether the biases then change in the same way. Here we assessed how the biases alter under conditions designed to induce negative mood. We had participants read a list of self-related negative or neutral mood statements [Velten, E. (1968). A laboratory task for induction of mood states. Behavior Research and Therapy, 6, 473–482] and also listen for 10?min to a passage of negative or neutral music, prior to carrying out perceptual matching with shapes associated to personal labels (self or stranger) or reward (£12 or £1). Responses to the self- and high-reward-associated shapes were selectively slower and less sensitive (d′) following the negative mood induction procedures, and the decrease in mood correlated with decreases in the reaction time bias across “high saliency” (self and high-reward) stimuli. We suggest that negative mood may decrease self- and reward-biases through reducing attention to salient external stimuli.     

Eye movements reveal the time-course of anticipating behaviour based on complex, conflicting desires

The time-course of representing others’ perspectives is inconclusive across the currently available models of ToM processing. We report two visual-world studies investigating how knowledge about a character’s basic preferences (e.g. Tom’s favourite colour is pink) and higher-order desires (his wish to keep this preference secret) compete to influence online expectations about subsequent behaviour. Participants’ eye movements around a visual scene were tracked while they listened to auditory narratives. While clear differences in anticipatory visual biases emerged between conditions in Experiment 1, post-hoc analyses testing the strength of the relevant biases suggested a discrepancy in the time-course of predicting appropriate referents within the different contexts. Specifically, predictions to the target emerged very early when there was no conflict between the character’s basic preferences and higher-order desires, but appeared to be relatively delayed when comprehenders were provided with conflicting information about that character’s desire to keep a secret. However, a second experiment demonstrated that this apparent ‘cognitive cost’ in inferring behaviour based on higher-order desires was in fact driven by low-level features between the context sentence and visual scene. Taken together, these results suggest that healthy adults are able to make complex higher-order ToM inferences without the need to call on costly cognitive processes. Results are discussed relative to previous accounts of ToM and language processing.     

Refugees in the media: Exploring a vicious cycle of frustrated psychological needs,selective exposure,and hostile intergroup attitudes

Two research objectives underlay the present research. First, we tested how frustrated psychological needs caused by the refugee-influx influence the endorsement and selection of refugee-relevant information. Second, we tested how information selection processes contribute to the development of exclusionary attitudes that counteract the integration of refugees into host countries. In a laboratory study (n = 181), frustrated psychological needs decreased participants’ endorsement of a refugee-friendly essay (vs. a control essay). Additionally, frustrated needs led to a biased selection of refugee-hostile over refugee-friendly information and such selection biases, in turn, predicted higher levels of ingroup defense and prejudice toward refugees. The findings imply that host societies’ receptiveness to refugees is influenced by the maintenance of basic psychological needs.     

The evolution of frequency distributions: Relating regularization to inductive biases through iterated learning

The regularization of linguistic structures by learners has played a key role in arguments for strong innate constraints on language acquisition, and has important implications for language evolution. However, relating the inductive biases of learners to regularization behavior in laboratory tasks can be challenging without a formal model. In this paper we explore how regular linguistic structures can emerge from language evolution by iterated learning, in which one person’s linguistic output is used to generate the linguistic input provided to the next person. We use a model of iterated learning with Bayesian agents to show that this process can result in regularization when learners have the appropriate inductive biases. We then present three experiments demonstrating that simulating the process of language evolution in the laboratory can reveal biases towards regularization that might not otherwise be obvious, allowing weak biases to have strong effects. The results of these experiments suggest that people tend to regularize inconsistent word-meaning mappings, and that even a weak bias towards regularization can allow regular languages to be produced via language evolution by iterated learning.     

Positive emotional attention bias in young children with symptoms of ADHD

Children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) often experience emotional dysregulation. Dysregulation can arise from heightened attention to emotional stimuli. Emotional attention biases are associated with a number of adverse socioemotional outcomes including reward sensitivity and externalizing behaviors. As reward sensitivity and externalizing behaviors are common in children with ADHD, the aim of the current study was to determine whether emotional attention biases are evident in young children with clinically significant ADHD symptoms. To test this, children with (n = 18) and without (n = 15) symptoms of ADHD were tested on a Dot Probe task. Provided recent evidence that emotional attention biases are attenuated by sleep, the task was performed before and after overnight sleep. Children with ADHD symptoms displayed positive, but not negative, attention biases at both time points, whereas typically developing children did not preferentially attend toward or away from positive or negative stimuli. Sleep did not alter attention biases in either group. Collectively, these results indicate that children with ADHD symptoms have stable, positive attention biases.     

Multiple Reference Points,Framing, and the Status Quo Bias in Health Care Financing Decisions

Reference effects help account for several behavioral biases, including framing, status quo, and omission effects. Despite the importance of reference effects, little is understood about how decision makers adopt a referent. This study investigates the roles of status quo and framing conditions in the selection of reference alternatives. Full-time employees made health care financing decisions within a problem context containing multiple reference candidates. Results from this work demonstrate that the status quo bias can operate at multiple levels and that the status quo bias does interact with framing. In addition, these results demonstrate that subjects manifest the status quo bias within the domain of health care financing decisions.     

Emotion regulation through listening to music in everyday situations

Music is a stimulus capable of triggering an array of basic and complex emotions. We investigated whether and how individuals employ music to induce specific emotional states in everyday situations for the purpose of emotion regulation. Furthermore, we wanted to examine whether specific emotion-regulation styles influence music selection in specific situations. Participants indicated how likely it would be that they would want to listen to various pieces of music (which are known to elicit specific emotions) in various emotional situations. Data analyses by means of non-metric multidimensional scaling revealed a clear preference for pieces of music that were emotionally congruent with an emotional situation. In addition, we found that specific emotion-regulation styles might influence the selection of pieces of music characterised by specific emotions. Our findings demonstrate emotion-congruent music selection and highlight the important role of specific emotion-regulation styles in the selection of music in everyday situations.     

Self-Selection, Church Attendance, and Local Civic Participation

Prior research has shown that church attendance affects voting participation, but has a negative or no effect on more demanding forms of political participation. I argue that this differential for nonelectoral activity partially results from biases in how scholars conceptualize and analyze church attendance variables. To properly measure the influence of church attendance on nonelectoral participation, scholarship needs to account for self-selection biases that hinder accurate analyses. Consistent with the literature, a selection model finds that once fundamentalism's motivating effect is considered, church attendance plays no role in a respondent's participation in local government meetings. The present work provides a partial explanation for why attendance has no effect on more demanding political activity. These findings demonstrate that scholarship should focus attention on prior factors that influence congregants' attendance decisions.