The Straw Thing of Fallacy Theory: The Standard Definition of 'Fallacy'

Hamblin held that the conception of 'fallacy' as an argument that seems valid but is not really so was the dominant conception of fallacy in the history of fallacy studies. The present paper explores the extent of support that there is for this view. After presenting a brief analysis of 'the standard definition of fallacy,' a number of the definitions of 'fallacy' in texts from the middle of this century – from the standard treatment – are considered. This is followed by a review of the definitions of 'fallacy' in the earlier history of logic books, including those of Aristotle, Whately, Mill and De Morgan. The essay concludes that there is scarcely any support for Hamblin's view that this particular definition of 'fallacy' was widely held.     

The Fallacy Fallacy: From the Owl of Minerva to the Lark of Arete

The fallacy fallacy is either the misdiagnosis of fallacy or the supposition that the conclusion of a fallacy must be a falsehood. This paper explores the relevance of these and related errors of reasoning for the appraisal of arguments, especially within virtue theories of argumentation. In particular, the fallacy fallacy exemplifies the Owl of Minerva problem, whereby tools devised to understand a norm make possible new ways of violating the norm. Fallacies are such tools and so are vices. Hence a similar problem arises with argumentative vices. Fortunately, both instances of the problem have a common remedy.

     

Effing the Ineffable: The Logocentric Fallacy in Argumentation

Words, just because they are words, are not inherently clear. The message they contain becomes clear to those who speak the language and are familiar with the issues and contexts. If the message lacks linguistic clarity the recipient of the message will typically make a query that will bring forth further information intended to clarify. The result might be more words, but it might also involve pointing or drawing, or words that utilize other modes such as references to context, history, and so on. If the ambiguity derives from an inconsistency between, say, words and behaviour, one may look to either mode for clarity. Communication, we must accept, actually occurs in messages, and our ability to transmit information may be limited by any number of factors. When we focus entirely on discursive aspects of communication we limit both the ways in which we receive and ways in which we transmit information. The logocentric fallacy is committed when language, especially in it's most logical guise, is seen to be the only form of rational communication.     

Another View of AACD and Its Journals

In this invited response to Weinrach's article, “Some Serious and Some Not So Serious Reactions to AACD and Its Journals,” it is a bit difficult to know at what level or with what tone one should react. Like any work of comedy or parody, Weinrach's piece is presumably intended to be a caricature of the reality of AACD and its journals as he views them. My problem is that I am not always sure from his analysis which of his comments he intends to be serious and which he does not. One might expect to find, in any caricature, kernels of truth that are exaggerated for effect. In this instance, they are difficult to ferret out. Although I prefer to simply express another view rather than debate his perspectives point for point, many of the observations that he makes are not supported by my own experience or perceptions. Maybe these are the parts of his paradigm intended not to be serious reactions.     

Sustainable Development: The Fallacy of a Normatively-Neutral Development Paradigm

Although the concept of 'sustainable development' or SD has been welcomed as a new idea to resolve the immense environmental and developmental problems in the world, it has become apparent that the concept has nothing new to offer to the victims of environmental degradation and poverty. The sustainable development thesis, as it is being promoted now, is based on the premise that environmental problems and poverty can be attenuated and eventually solved by being treated as mere technical problems which then can be ultimately reduced to an environmental management problem. As long as the developmentalist ideology of mere economic growth, which is framed within neoclassical economics, is not challenged and transformed, SD cannot address the problems of environmental degradation and poverty. SD needs to be framed in an alternative discourse for analysing the ecological crisis in order to address the issues of economic injustice and inequality. It will be argued that reducing economic inequality and social injustice, which are the underlying causes for ecological injustice, will render environmental problems more tractable and eventually avoidable.     

判断与决策中的规划谬误

规划谬误是指人们在估计未来任务的完成时间时, 倾向于过度乐观, 低估任务完成时间的一种现象。规划谬误的心理机制主要包括规划谬误理论和记忆偏差理论。规划谬误的影响因素主要有认知因素、动机因素、个体的经验水平、目标任务的性质等。规划谬误的应对策略主要有与过去的经验相联系、从第三人称视角进行估计、任务分解及时间分配。未来的研究主要从规划谬误与策略性误解、乐观偏差、过分自信的关系, 规划谬误的产生根源、规划谬误的跨文化研究、规划谬误的研究范围及应用领域等方面进一步探讨。     

相似任务经验和未来时间充裕感对计划失误的影响

本研究检验了人们一种潜在的认知倾向,即低估任务的完成时间。本研究分为2个实验,从两个角度来研究人们低估任务时间的行为。实验一从不同预测方式的角度,检验了任务的相似性和认知需求因素对任务时间估计的影响。实验二从未来时间知觉的角度,检验了未来时间充裕感对任务的完成时间预测的影响。结果表明:不同的时间预测方式都会引起对任务完成/持续时间的低估;任务的相似性会利于任务时间估计的精确性;认知需求因素会和任务的相似性产生交互作用,从而影响任务完成时间的估计;未来时间充裕感的程度也会影响人们对当前任务的预测。     

The Conjunction Fallacy: A Derived Stimulus Relations Conceptualization and Demonstration Experiment

The Psychological Record - The conjunction fallacy (CF) comes about when the occurrence of two events is rated as more likely than either in isolation. A typical participant in a CF study is...     

The Lingering Effects of Our Past Experiences: The Sunk‐Cost Fallacy and the Inaction‐Inertia Effect

The effect of past experiences and actions in shaping current perceptions, emotions, decisions and goals is widely recognized in the psychological literature. When it comes to economic decisions, however, these influences are sometimes seen as impediments to rational decision‐making. In an attempt to explore the enduring consequences of the past, we present, compare, and discuss two familiar behavioral phenomena: The sunk‐cost effect, which refers to situations where continued actions are fueled by past investments, and the inaction‐inertia effect, in which continued inaction is triggered by the shadows of missed opportunities. Although one process elicits continued action and the other continued inaction, we show that there is a great deal of similarity in the psychological underpinnings of these effects, and argue that respecting sunk costs and avoiding actions that are associated with forgone opportunities are not necessarily unreasonable, or maladaptive behaviors.     

The Modernist Fallacy: philosophy as art's undoing [1]

ABSTRACT The essay is concerned with the widely held view that contemporary fine art is obscurantist, shallow and unrewarding of attention. It is argued that the opposition between common opinion and the advocates of modernism rests upon a philosophical disagreement about the nature and value of art. An account of aesthetic experience is then presented and illustrated by reference to Raphael's The School of Athens. This account shows the reasoning implicit in modernism to rest upon a fallacy relating to the possible forms of explanation. The essay concludes by endorsing Augustine's claim that culcural intelligibility rests not on abstract reasoning but on shared affections. This sets a requirement for artists to return to making work that engages the interests of their fellow citizens.     

The Effects of Gender and Measurement Strategy on Causal Attributions for Infertility

Investigators of causal attributions for threatening events have typically studied either male or female samples and have interchangeably used two methods of assessing attributions. To examine the effect of gender and measurement strategy on causal attributions, we interviewed 31 men and 33 women with impaired fertility. Causal attributions were measured using open-ended questions, as well as by asking participants to rate the influence of five specific causes. The results of a multitrait-multimethod matrix revealed only modest convergence between measurement methods. As predicted, both method and gender influenced causal attributions. Women were more likely to attribute the infertility to their behavior. Causal attributions were related to psychological symptoms, but differentially depending on how attributions were measured.     

认识癌症与炎症间的因果关系及其意义

炎症是指机体对组织细胞损伤的反应,而癌症是指所有恶性肿瘤的总称.表面上看,两者是截然不同的.近年研究表明,大约1/5的癌症患者有长期慢性炎症刺激,因而提出＂癌症相关性炎＂的概念.显然,炎症是因,癌症是果.但是,4/5的癌症患者并找不到慢性炎症背景,然而,其癌症组织内也有炎细胞浸润,此种情况癌症应为因,但机理基本上不清楚.癌症与炎症的因果关系主要包括上述两种情况,阐明其机理对患者的防治均有重要意义.     

Explaining High Conjunction Fallacy Rates: The Probability Theory Plus Noise Account

The conjunction fallacy occurs when people judge the conjunctive probability P(A ∧ B) to be greater than a constituent probability P(A), contrary to the norms of probability theory. This fallacy is a reliable, consistent and systematic part of people's probability judgements, attested in many studies over at least 40 years. For some events, these fallacies occur very frequently in people's judgements (at rates of 80% or more), while for other events, the fallacies are very rare (occurring at rates of 10% or less). This wide range of fallacy rates presents a challenge for current theories of the conjunction fallacy. We show how this wide range of observed fallacy rates can be explained by a simple model where people reason according to probability theory but are subject to random noise in the reasoning process. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Psychology and Law: The Last 15 Years

The modern initiative for psychologists becoming involved in research relevant to law can be more or less traced to developments approximately 15 years ago, although earlier roots are evident. The period of this review thus roughly coincides with the publication life of the Journal of Applied Social Psychology. A few major research trends were discussed from this historical perspective, and problems and projections briefly noted.