决策与决策执行的关系——一种行动理性的观点

本文以分析决策与执行的关系为出发点,对人类理性的本质进行了讨论。指出决策研究中存在的“理性分析范式”偏面地把认知分析当作人类理性的本质,忽视了行动的作用,提出了人类理性是“行动理性”的思想。行动既是一种分析方法,是人们深化对客观世界的认识,理解决策问题的独特手段,也是人们创造外界环境、实现决策目标的有效途径。由此提出,决策研究,尤其是组织决策研究,应该重视“行动分析范式”。     

渐进决策模式的哲学本质

所谓渐进决策是相对理性决策而言,即指人们对决策对象还缺乏完整认识,对决策后果没有绝对把握,只能作出一个试验性的尝试,边实践边摸索,一旦捕捉到有利战机,便加快步伐,实现决策总体目标的一种决策方式。在当今的改革时代,许多决策均属于渐进决策。这是因为,一方面,当今社会政治、经济形势变化迅速,事物的不确定性因素很大,如果过分强调完整规划,就可能脱离现实。渐进决策的决策,注重解决决策者的认识水平、决策能力的有限性与客观事物发展的无限间之间的矛盾。决策者尽量     

多特征多选择决策任务的信息策略测量

启发式是人类决策的重要特征,当决策信息加工容量超过决策者信息加工能力的时候,这时Simon所说的“有限理性”就发挥了重要的作用,决策者经常依据自身的价值判断与以往的知识经验,省略许多决策线索的搜索,寻找一个所谓“满意的选择”。当决策任务处于高度不确定性状态与战略性的情景的时候,引导决策者行动的已经不是决策任务信息,决策者已经没有时间或者没有信息来源去考查这些信息,启发式与行动策略已经成为影响决策结果的重要因素。     

《决策过程的思维主线是从抽象到具体》

决策的过程,就是对大量信息进行提炼,认识现状和预测未来、确定目标并选择达到目标的方案韵过程。在决策过程中,思维的起点是问题。问题不是感性存在,它是靠理性思维从大量事实、现象、信息中概括抽象出来的。问题是人们对应有现象和实际现象之间的差距的本质的把握。问题是一个简单的抽象,但同时它又包含着全部决策过程中一切矛盾的萌芽,是全部决策过程赖以发展的基础。通过发现问题,已把实际状态基本调查清楚;为了搞清事物的应有状态,思维便从     

论西方古典伦理学的理论基础

德性在于符合自然生活,因而伦理学首先就需要研究神性、人性和物性,也就是研究万物的"自然"。但思考自然不仅仅是为了获得知识,而是为了认识神明,也就是最高的善,从而走向德性。在思想领域,"认识"本身不是目的,达到道德的高尚性才是,因而我们要充分认识到"认识"的限度,这也是属人的根本"义务"。义务在于行动,行动必须以智慧和良善为前提。德性乃是理性的保证,理性与德性的连接点在于"完善",达到存在的最高境界。研究这种境界的哲学不是知识的展示,更不是概念的思辨,而是治疗灵魂使之达到德性的生活方式。古代伦理思想的基础在于大写的"理性",其目标在于"高尚",其方法在于"义务"。理性的根本任务在于以自然天道为基础的"致良知"。     

重提这个问题:何谓《资本论》的“辩证方法”?

恰当把握《资本论》的辩证方法的前提是恰当把握马克思"辩证法"概念的基本内涵。如果把马克思对辩证法的著名界定"对于肯定事物的否定的理解"中的"理解"概念把握为对变化中的事物所处的具体情况也即现实性前提进行判断的话,马克思的"辩证法"指对资本主义时代的历史性的否定性的揭示。而这一揭示的展开过程,就是《资本论》的"辩证方法",这种方法是不断从被给定的政治经济学抽象观念深入具体的历史性境遇、并揭示其界限的过程。     

论纽科姆难题的因果决策结构及其消解方案

纽科姆难题是关于决策者合理行为的一个选择困境问题,它的提出使得贝叶斯主义者在理性主体应该采取的行为方式这个问题上出现严重分歧,经典决策理论也因此分化为证据决策理论和因果决策理论两大理论流派,从而极大地促进了贝叶斯决策理论的发展。但随着研究的深入,一些学者对纽科姆难题本身的合理性提出了质疑,认为其存在构造缺陷或所设置的选择困境超出了人类的理性边界。事实上,纽科姆难题具有一种特殊的因果决策结构,借助赖欣巴哈原理、屏蔽原理和可证实性原则等,在考察决策者斟酌过程的基础上,我们可以构建一种新的方案来消解纽科姆难题中的选择困境。     

思维错觉浅谈

什么是错觉,目前心理学有一个基本统一的解释,即是指人们对外界事物的不正确的知觉。然而,人类对世界客观事物的认识,一般分两个阶段:即感性阶段(包括感知阶段)和理性阶段,并遵行这个顺序过程去认识事物。感知(感觉和知觉)是感性阶段认识过程的第一步。思维是理性阶段的认识过程。感性阶段(知觉)存在错觉,理性阶段(思维)也同样存在错觉。所以,在整个认识过程中,不正确的认识都可以造成或产生错觉。由此,错觉可以分为感知错觉和思维错觉两种类型。对于感知方面的错觉,许多专     

当局者迷,旁观者清?自我-他人决策的理性差异及其机制

生活充满抉择,由于知识经验的局限,人们常需寻求他人建议,抑或直接请他人代己决策.诸多研究探讨了自我决策、向他人建议,以及代他人决策之间的差异.探究这种差异的动因之一在于考察何种条件下的决策更优或更“理性”.以往研究表明,自我决策或他人决策(向他人建议或代他人决策)均有可能更易违背理性决策原则,隐含着他人决策优于自我决策的“当局者迷,旁观者清”这一传统智慧有一定的边界条件.研究者一般从认知(建构水平理论)、情绪(类型和卷入度),以及动机(调节聚焦理论)三种视角对自我-他人决策差异进行解释.本文作者提出基于理由的决策(reason-based account)假设来解释自我-他人决策在理性程度上的差异.未来研究可从决策过程及脑机制上深入考察自我-他人决策差异及其机制.     

基于信号检测论的新业务投资决策有限理性实验

采用情境模拟实验,以60名MBA/EMBA学员为被试,对新业务投资决策的4个主要因素、36个处理、12个信号检测单元进行了观察分析.研究发现:①辨别力最强的决策信息组合、判断标准最高的决策信息组合,以及辨别力和判断标准 "双低"的决策信息组合;②影响决策者的有限理性存在程度差别,强弱依次是投资情境、面对机会、投资模式和以往机会.     

Caregiving decision making by older mothers and adult children: process and expected outcome

Dyadic caregiving decision making was studied in 30 mother-son and 29 mother-daughter pairs (mother's age=65-94 years) who responded to a vignette depicting a caregiving decision situation. The observed decision-making process of mother-child pairs was largely naturalistic, with few alternatives proposed and quick convergence to a decision followed by a postdecision justification; a degree of more rational decision making was seen in some pairs. Among significant findings, adult children, especially sons, dominated the decision process, doing more talking and introducing more alternatives than did their mothers, who played a more subordinate role. Mother-son pairs expected more negative outcomes and greater regrets regarding their decisions than mother-daughter pairs. Closeness of the parent-child relationship influenced the decision-making process, expected outcomes, and regrets.     

Reducing uncertainty to promote appropriate decisions when facing hazardous phenomena at an active volcano

This study investigated a new direction for improving the decision making of populations at risk in the context of uncertain environmental events, such as volcanic hazards. According to the risk as feelings theory and dual process models, situations with certain outcomes do not necessarily require the use of affect heuristics (e.g., experienced feelings, anticipated emotions) as valid information in the decision‐making process. In the case of difficult decisions with moral dilemmas, certainty could even improve decisions. Thus, using an ecological design with various scenarios depicting upcoming volcanic hazards, we examined whether reducing the uncertainty of lethal threat by conveying certainty in an information campaign could influence decision making and promote a better quality of choice (correct application of the recommendations from the competent authorities). We focused specifically on two populations composed of local people living in the vicinity of an active volcano (Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador) and local scientists. We also examined whether a difficult decision involving a moral dilemma (e.g., leaving people behind so as not to jeopardize one's own life) potentiated this effect, compared to a less difficult situation without a dilemma. We demonstrated that, for local people facing a moral dilemma (difficult decision), the reduction of uncertainty of lethal threat involved a better application of the actual recommendations. These outcomes provided perspectives on improving the applications of the recommendations among local populations at risk in the context of a real risk exposure.     

Age differences in financial decision making: The benefits of more experience and less negative emotions

The emerging literature on aging and decision making posits that decision‐making competence changes with age, as a result of age differences in various cognitive and noncognitive individual‐differences characteristics. In a national life‐span sample from the United Kingdom (N = 926), we examined age differences in financial decisions, including performance measures of sunk cost and credit card repayment decisions, and self‐report measures of money management and financial decision outcomes. Participants also completed four individual‐differences characteristics that have been proposed as relevant to financial decision making, including two cognitive ones (numeracy and experience‐based knowledge) and two noncognitive ones (negative emotions about financial decisions). First, we examined how age was related to the four financial decision‐making measures and the four individual‐differences characteristics. Older age was correlated to better scores on each of the four financial decision‐making measures, more experience‐based knowledge, less negative emotions about financial decisions, whereas numeracy and motivation were not significantly correlated with age. Second, we found that considering both the two cognitive and the two noncognitive individual‐differences characteristics increased predictions of financial decision making, as compared with considering either alone. Third, we examined how these four individual‐differences characteristics contributed to age differences in financial decision making. Older adults' higher levels of experience‐based knowledge and lower levels of negative emotions seemed to especially benefit their financial decision making. We discuss implications for theories on aging and decision making, as well as for interventions targeting financial decisions.     

Reinforcement,Rationality, and Intentions: How Robust Is Automatic Reinforcement Learning in Economic Decision Making?

Reinforcement learning is often observed in economic decision making and may lead to detrimental decisions. Because of its automaticity, it is difficult to avoid. In three experimental studies, we investigated whether this process could be controlled by goal intentions and implementation intentions. Participants' decisions were investigated in a probability‐updating task in which the normative rule to maximize expected payoff (Bayes' rule) conflicted with the reinforcement heuristic as a simple decision rule. Some participants were asked to set goal intentions designated to foster the optimization of rational decision making, while other participants were asked to furnish these goal intentions with implementation intentions. Results showed that controlling automatic processes of reinforcement learning is possible by means of goal intentions or implementation intentions that focus decision makers on the analysis of decision feedback. Importantly, such beneficial effects were not achieved by simply instructing participants to analyze the feedback, without defining a goal as the desired end state from a first‐person perspective. Regarding intentions supposed to shut down reinforcement processes by controlling negative affect, effects were more complex and depended on the specified goal‐directed behavior. The goal intention to suppress the disappointment elicited by negative feedback was not effective in controlling reinforcement processes. Furnishing this goal with an implementation intention even backfired and strengthened unwanted reinforcement processes. In contrast, asking participants to keep cool in response to negative decision outcomes through the use of goal intentions or implementation intentions increased decisions in line with Bayes' rule. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Computing Pareto‐optimal Predictor Composites for Complex Selection Decisions

A complex selection situation encompasses vacancies for several different positions and applicants that apply simultaneously for one or several of these positions. This article presents an analytic method for estimating the expected selection quality, as well as the adverse impact ratio of these complex selections, when the decisions are based on a single predictor composite score. In addition, the method is integrated within a broader decision‐making framework for designing complex selection decisions that show a Pareto‐optimal balance between the selection quality and diversity goals. Finally, the decision aid is used to demonstrate the importance of applying the appropriate selection format (either the simple or the complex format) when exploring the front of Pareto‐optimal outcomes of planned selections.     

A timely account of the role of duration in decision making

The current work takes a general perspective on the role of time in decision making. There are many different relationships and interactions between time and decision making, and no single summary can do justice to this topic. In this paper we will describe a few of the aspects in which time and decision making are interleaved: (a) temporal perspectives of decisions--the various temporal orientations that decision-makers may adopt while making decisions, and the impact of such temporal orientations on the decision process and its outcomes; (b) time as a medium within which decisions take place--the nature of decision processes that occur along time; (c) time as a resource and as a contextual factor--the implications of shortage in time resources and the impact of time limits on decision making processes and performance; (d) time as a commodity--time as the subject matter of decision making. The paper ends with a few general questions on the role of duration in decision making.     

Instance‐based learning in dynamic decision making

This paper presents a learning theory pertinent to dynamic decision making (DDM) called instancebased learning theory (IBLT). IBLT proposes five learning mechanisms in the context of a decision‐making process: instance‐based knowledge, recognition‐based retrieval, adaptive strategies, necessity‐based choice, and feedback updates. IBLT suggests in DDM people learn with the accumulation and refinement of instances, containing the decision‐making situation, action, and utility of decisions. As decision makers interact with a dynamic task, they recognize a situation according to its similarity to past instances, adapt their judgment strategies from heuristic‐based to instance‐based, and refine the accumulated knowledge according to feedback on the result of their actions. The IBLT's learning mechanisms have been implemented in an ACT‐R cognitive model. Through a series of experiments, this paper shows how the IBLT's learning mechanisms closely approximate the relative trend magnitude and performance of human data. Although the cognitive model is bounded within the context of a dynamic task, the IBLT is a general theory of decision making applicable to other dynamic environments.     

The Effects of Decision Outcome Dispersion Upon Organizational Decision Making

The effects of varying decision outcome dispersion on organizational decision making were investigated under individual and group decision making conditions. Thirty-six female and pg]36 male subjects made decisions for organizational decision scenarios in which outcomes affected primarily the decision maker, people other than the decision maker, or a group of which the decision maker was a member. Subjects rated their levels of perceived risk and confidence in their decisions and made decisions within a simulated context of either a small or a large organization. Results indicated that subjects perceived significantly less risk and more confidence in their decisions when outcomes affected primarily themselves rather than others regardless of whether the decisions were made individually or by a group. Males perceived their decisions as significantly more risky than females. Induced organizational size did not significantly influence decision making.

     

Recognition Decisions From Visual Working Memory Are Mediated by Continuous Latent Strengths

Making recognition decisions often requires us to reference the contents of working memory, the information available for ongoing cognitive processing. As such, understanding how recognition decisions are made when based on the contents of working memory is of critical importance. In this work we examine whether recognition decisions based on the contents of visual working memory follow a continuous decision process of graded information about the correct choice or a discrete decision process reflecting only knowing and guessing. We find a clear pattern in favor of a continuous latent strength model of visual working memory–based decision making, supporting the notion that visual recognition decision processes are impacted by the degree of matching between the contents of working memory and the choices given. Relation to relevant findings and the implications for human information processing more generally are discussed.