Perspectives on prediction: Does third-person imagery improve task completion estimates?

People typically underestimate the time necessary to complete their tasks. According to the planning fallacy model of optimistic time predictions, this underestimation occurs because people focus on developing a specific plan for the current task and neglect the implications of past failures to meet similar deadlines. We extend the classic planning fallacy model by proposing that a phenomenal quality of mental imagery – the visual perspective that is adopted – may moderate the optimistic prediction bias. Consistent with this proposal, participants in four studies predicted longer completion times, and thus were less prone to bias, when they imagined an upcoming task from the third-person rather than first-person perspective. Third-person imagery reduced people’s focus on optimistic plans, increased their focus on potential obstacles, and decreased the impact of task-relevant motives on prediction. The findings suggest that third-person imagery helps individuals generate more realistic predictions by reducing cognitive and motivational processes that typically contribute to bias.     

Overcoming the planning fallacy through willpower: effects of implementation intentions on actual and predicted task‐completion times

Previous work has shown that people often underestimate their task‐completion times (Buehler, Griffin, & Ross, 1994 ). The present research examined whether this optimistic bias may be reduced through the formation of implementation intentions. In an experimental study, participants were requested to complete an assignment within a specified time period. Half of these participants made implementation intentions about where and when they would complete the assignment. The remaining participants were simply given the goal of completing the assignment. The results showed that furnishing participants' goals with implementation intentions led to (a) more optimistic completion predictions, (b) an even greater increase in actual rates of goal completion, and, consequently, (c) a significant reduction in optimistic bias in completion predictions. Furthermore, the reduction in optimistic bias among implementation–intention participants was found to be mediated by a smaller number of interruptions while working on the assignment. Together, these findings attest to the importance of implementation planning in overcoming unrealistic optimism in task‐completion predictions. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Planning, personality, and prediction: The role of future focus in optimistic time predictions

The present studies examined cognitive processes underlying the tendency to underestimate project completion times. Two experiments tested the hypothesis that people generate overly optimistic predictions, in part, because they focus narrowly on their future plans for the target task and thus neglect other useful sources of information. Consistent with the hypothesis, instructing participants to adopt a “future focus”—in which they generated concrete, specific plans for the task at hand—led them to make more optimistic predictions about when they would complete their intended Christmas shopping (Study 1) and major school assignments (Study 2). The future focus manipulation did not have a corresponding effect on actual completion times, and thus increased the degree of optimistic bias in prediction. The studies also demonstrated that the optimistic prediction bias generalized across different task domains, relevant individual differences (i.e., trait optimism and procrastination), and other contextual variations.     

Collaborative planning and prediction: Does group discussion affect optimistic biases in time estimation?

Intuition and previous research indicate that individuals commonly display an optimistic bias in time prediction. The present studies extend research on task completion forecasts to examine tasks performed collaboratively by groups, and predictions generated through group discussion. Participants predicted—individually and collaboratively—when they would complete upcoming group projects ranging from brief laboratory tasks to extensive real-world projects, and their actual completion times were measured. Results supported the three guiding hypotheses. First, there was an optimistic bias for both individual (Studies 1 and 2) and group predictions (Studies 1–3). Second, predictions generated through group discussion were more optimistic than those generated individually. Third, this “group accentuation” effect was mediated by the informational focus at the time of prediction. Group discussion heightened participants’ tendency to focus primarily on factors promoting successful task completion, and this selective focus on “planning for success” enhanced their optimistic outlook. Discussion centers on theoretical contributions to the individual and group decision making literatures, as well as applied implications for planning and forecasting within organizational contexts.     

How long will it take? Power biases time predictions

People tend to underestimate the time it takes to accomplish tasks. This bias known as the planning fallacy derives from the tendency to focus attention too narrowly on the envisaged goal and to ignore additional information that could make predictions more accurate and less biased. Drawing on recent research showing that power induces attentional focus, four studies tested the hypothesis that power strengthens the tendency to underestimate future task completion time. Across a range of task domains, and using multiple operationalizations of power, including actual control over outcomes (Study 1), priming (Studies 2 and 3), and individual differences (Study 4), power consistently led to more optimistic and less accurate time predictions. Support was found for the role of attentional focus as an underlying mechanism for those effects. Differences in optimism, self-efficacy, and mood did not contribute to the greater bias in powerful individuals’ forecasts. We discuss the implications of these findings for institutional decision processes and occupational health.     

People focus on optimistic scenarios and disregard pessimistic scenarios while predicting task completion times

Task completion plans normally resemble best-case scenarios and yield overly optimistic predictions of completion times. The authors induced participants to generate more pessimistic scenarios and examined completion predictions. Participants described a pessimistic scenario of task completion either alone or with an optimistic scenario. Pessimistic scenarios did not affect predictions or accuracy and were consistently rated less plausible than optimistic scenarios (Experiments 1-3). Experiment 4 independently manipulated scenario plausibility and optimism. Plausibility moderated the impact of optimistic, but not pessimistic, scenarios. Experiment 5 supported a motivational explanation of the tendency to disregard pessimistic scenarios regardless of their plausibility. People took pessimistic scenarios into account when predicting someone else's completion times. The authors conclude that pessimistic-scenario generation may not be an effective debiasing technique for personal predictions.     

Hope over experience: desirability and the persistence of optimism

Many important decisions hinge on expectations of future outcomes. Decisions about health, investments, and relationships all depend on predictions of the future. These expectations are often optimistic: People frequently believe that their preferred outcomes are more likely than is merited. Yet it is unclear whether optimism persists with experience and, surprisingly, whether optimism is truly caused by desire. These are important questions because life's most consequential decisions often feature both strong preferences and the opportunity to learn. We investigated these questions by collecting football predictions from National Football League fans during each week of the 2008 season. Despite accuracy incentives and extensive feedback, predictions about preferred teams remained optimistically biased through the entire season. Optimism was as strong after 4 months as it was after 4 weeks. We exploited variation in preferences and matchups to show that desirability fueled this optimistic bias.     

Anxiety and outcome predictions

Research shows that people display a downward shift in their predictions in anticipation of performance and feedback. The authors used a misattribution paradigm to explore whether anxiety serves as a signal for predictions. Participants (N = 108) anticipating results from an important test either immediately or in a few days were or were not encouraged to attribute any arousal they experienced to coffee they consumed earlier. Consistent with predictions, participants encouraged to attribute their arousal to the coffee were optimistic in their predictions even when anticipating immediate test feedback. In addition, the more participants attributed their arousal to the coffee, the more optimistic they were in their predictions. Ancillary analyses suggest that anxiety can be a cause rather than a consequence of less optimistic predictions.     

Coping and physical health outcomes: an overview

The aim of the present study was to investigate longitudinally the sensitivity of optimistic beliefs (positive outcome expectancies, efficacy expectancies, and optimistic bias) to disease-related stress (measured by disease duration, depressive symptoms, physical symptoms, physical impairment, and life-events) in Type 1 diabetes (n = 90) and multiple sclerosis (n = 90). First, we examined whether chronically ill patients were less optimistic than a healthy control group (n = 60), which showed that patients reported lower levels of optimistic bias but similar levels of the two other optimistic beliefs. Next, we analyzed the stability of the three types of optimistic beliefs across time (one year) for both disease groups, which demonstrated that optimistic bias in MS patients decreased. Finally, the impact of disease-related stressors on optimistic beliefs during a one-year period was determined, showing that all three optimistic beliefs decreased when patients reported depressive symptoms. Together, these findings show that positive outcome expectancies and efficacy expectancies were unaffected by being ill and fairly stable unless patients reported depressive symptoms while optimistic bias appeared to decrease as a result of being ill. Results are discussed in terms of the role of control and depression in optimistic bias.     

The Interference of Introversion–Extraversion and Depressive Symptomatology with Reasoning Performance: A Behavioural Study

The objective of this study was to investigate the link between the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ) scores and depressive symptomatology with reasoning performance induced by a task including valid and invalid Aristotelian syllogisms. The EPQ and the Zung Depressive Scale (ZDS) were completed by 48 healthy subjects (27 male, 21 female) aged 33.5 ± 9.0 years. Additionally, the subjects engaged into two reasoning tasks (valid vs. invalid syllogisms). Analysis showed that the judgment of invalid syllogisms is a more difficult task than of valid judgments (65.1% vs. 74.6% of correct judgments respectively, p < 0.01). In both conditions, the subjects’ degree of confidence is significantly higher when they make a correct judgment than when they make an incorrect judgment (83.8 ± 11.2 vs. 75.3 ± 17.3, p < 0.01). Subjects with extraversion as measured by EPQ and high sexual desire as rated by the relative ZDS subscale are more prone to make incorrect judgments in the valid syllogisms, while, at the same time, they are more confident in their responses. The effects of extraversion/introversion and sexual desire on the outcome measures of the valid condition are not commutative but additive. These findings indicate that extraversion/introversion and sexual desire variations may have a detrimental effect in the reasoning performance.     

Anger,personality, and optimistic stress appraisals

Two studies examined the impacts of experimentally induced anger and personality on appraisals of hypothetical stressors. Consistent with predictions Study 1 (N = 62) revealed that anger (compared to a neutral state) led to more optimistic appraisals of the stressors, and that those impacts were limited to appraisal dimensions known to evoke anger. Study 2 (N = 116) partially replicated these findings, and also revealed that personality moderated these effects such that the most optimistic appraisals emerged among the most extraverted and emotionally stable participants. These findings add to the extant work on the cognitive consequences of discrete emotions, integrate the affect, judgement, and personality literatures with appraisal theories of emotion, and suggest future research & directions.     

Automatic optimism: Biased use of base rate information for positive and negative events

People generally judge that positive events will occur in their lives and negative events will not, even when both events have the same objective likelihood to occur. In four studies, we examined the possibility that this optimistic bias is the result of people’s automatic affective reactions to future events. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrate, in two different contexts, that people are consistently optimistic in their predictions, despite identical base rates for positive and negative events. In Study 2, optimistic bias was not influenced by incentives for motivated reasoning or rewards for accuracy, suggesting that bias was the result of automatic processes. Studies 3 and 4 showed that optimistic bias was more pronounced when predictions were speeded and when participants made predictions after exposure to affectively valenced words. Together, these findings suggest that people optimistically interpret base rates and that this optimism is due to an effortless affective process.     

Cognitive labor shapes the desire for social and monetary compensation

When do people want something back for their mental labor? Based on equity theory, we propose that conscious experiences of success and effort—which emerge during cognitive work—shape people’s subsequent desire for social and monetary rewards. We examined this idea in a series of experiments, in which participants carried out a cognitive task, in which we manipulated task difficulty (easy vs. difficult) and performance feedback (high vs. low) within subjects. After each trial of this task, we probed people’s desire for compensation, in terms of social appreciation or money. Findings were in line with the entitlement hypothesis, which assumes that the experience of success can cause people to feel entitled to money. However, we found only indirect support for the effort compensation hypothesis, which assumes that the feeling of effort increases the subsequent desire for compensation, and no support for the intrinsic reward hypothesis, which assumes that people desire less social appreciation after already having experienced success. When considered together, our results suggest that labor-related feelings (of success and effort) shape people’s subsequent desire for money and social appreciation in several ways. These findings have potential implications for the effective use of performance feedback in work contexts.

     

Examining the trade‐off between confidence and optimism in future forecasts

Confident business forecasters are seen as more credible and competent (“confidence heuristic”). We explored a boundary condition of this effect by examining how individuals react to the trade‐off between confidence and optimism. Using hypothetical scenarios, we examined this trade‐off from the perspectives of judges (i.e., business owners who hired analysts to make sales predictions) and forecasters (i.e., the analysts hired to make predictions). Participants were assigned to the role of either judges or forecasters and were asked to rate 2 potential forecasts. In the “no trade‐off” condition, the 2 forecasts were aligned in optimism and confidence (the more confident forecast was also more optimistic); in the “trade‐off” condition, the more confident forecast was less optimistic. In Experiment 1, judges were more likely to positively evaluate confident forecasters when confident forecasters were the more (vs. less) optimistic ones. Experiment 2 demonstrated that forecasters were aware of judges' preferences for optimism and strategically relied on methods that resulted in more optimistic (but less reliable) predictions. Experiment 3 directly compared the perspectives of judges and forecasters, revealing that forecasters overestimated judges' preferences for optimism over confidence. The present studies show that forecasters and judges have different views of the trade‐off between confidence and optimism and that forecasters may unnecessarily sacrifice accuracy for optimism.     

When insecurity dampens desire: Attachment anxiety in men amplifies the decline in sexual desire during the early years of romantic relationships

Sexual desire is typically high during early relationship stages and decreases gradually over time. In the present research, we adopted an attachment-theoretical perspective to investigate why sexual desire for romantic partners erodes more rapidly for some people than others. We employed two samples of developing relationships (dating couples, N = 62; and newlyweds, N = 175) and examined the effects of attachment insecurities on sexual desire in prospective longitudinal designs. Results showed that attachment anxiety moderated the trajectory of men's sexual desire, such that over time, highly anxious men declined in desiring their partner, whereas less anxious men's desire did not drop. Attachment avoidance also predicted lower levels of initial desire in both sexes. These findings suggest that avoidance generally interferes with relationship initiation for both sexes, whereas anxiety in men interferes with the maintenance of desire over time, possibly because of sensitivity to increasing interdependence.     

An unconscious desire for hierarchy? The motivated perception of dominance complementarity in task partners

In 6 studies, the authors examined the perception of dominance complementarity, which is the perception of a target as different from the self in terms of dominance. The authors argue that these perceptions are motivated by the desire for positive task relationships. Because dominance complementarity bodes well for task-oriented relationships, seeing dominance complementarity allows one to be optimistic about a work relationship. As evidence that perceptions of dominance complementarity are an instance of motivated perception, the authors show that complementary perceptions occur when participants think about or expect task-oriented relationships with the target and that perceptions of dominance complementarity are enhanced when individuals care about the task component of the relationship.     

Hostile aggression and type A behavior

Type A and Type B male college students were given the opportunity to display hostile aggression against an insulting confederate on a bogus ESP task, using either aversive noise or a monetary penalty. Preliminary correlational analyses confirmed that Ss' aggressive responding covaried directly with their reported desire to hurt the confederate but was, in contrast, unrelated to their reported desire to help the confederate. Thus, Ss' aggressive behavior was motivated by hostile intentions. Subsequent analyses revealed that Type As were more aggressive and reported a greater desire to hurt the confederate than Type Bs, regardless of the mode of aggression. These data support the results of a recent study which questioned the intuitively appealing assumption that Type As should only display aggressive behavior when motivated by some external achievement goal.     

Conflicting desire and the child's theory of mind

We contrast the standard representational theory-of-mind approach to the understanding of mental states with an alternative view that theory-of-mind tasks require executive functioning or the inhibition of more “cognitively salient” information. Two experiments test the hypothesis that 3-year-olds' apparent problems on theory-of-mind tasks are not due to an inability to represent the mental contents of another, but rather lie in the informational structure of the task. In Experiment 1, 3- to 5-year-olds were tested on their understanding of desire in others either when they themselves held a strong and conflicting desire or when they had no strong desire. Results showed that under the condition of having a strong and conflicting desire, only 5-year-olds were able to recognize that another person may desire something different. In contrast, when the children themselves held no strong desire, even 3-year-olds were able to judge another's desire correctly. Experiment 2 compared 3-year-olds' performance on a standard false-belief task with an equivalently structured desire task in which participants had again to inhibit their own strong and conflicting desire. Results showed similar performance on the traditional false-belief task and the new conflicting-desire task.     

Dispositional optimism,optimism priming,and prevention of ego depletion

Exerting self‐control leads to a diminished capacity to carry out successive acts of self‐control, a process termed ego depletion. The present study investigated whether dispositional optimism, priming of an optimistic orientation, or their interaction can counteract the ego depletion effect. A total of 160 participants performed a self‐control‐demanding weight‐lifting task on two occasions. Half of the participants were depleted between the two weight‐lifting tasks. Because depletion of self‐regulatory resources can undermine optimism half of the participants in the depletion, and no‐depletion condition were primed for an optimistic orientation before performing the second self‐control task. Results demonstrated an interaction between dispositional optimism and optimism priming. Only in participants high in dispositional optimism did the optimism prime lead to undiminished persistence on the weight‐lifting task. These results demonstrate that dispositional optimism may lead to improved goal persistence in the face of adversity only under conditions in which optimistic schemas are activated. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Growth curve models in retrospective memory and prospective memory: the relationship between prediction and performance with task experience

Older adults commonly experience declines in episodic memory that affect their daily lives. The aim was to examine whether the acquired metacognitive awareness that comes with task experience, indexed by meta-retrospective memory (meta-RM)/meta-prospective memory (meta-PM), influences how older adults predict performance on later trials. Participants were 178 community-dwelling older adults. RM performance and predictions were measured using a multi-trial word-list learning task. Predictions and performance for PM were measured using a PM paradigm. Change in RM/PM performance and predictions over the trials/blocks were modelled using latent growth curve analyses. For RM, both predictions and performance increased with task experience. However, for PM, neither performance nor predictions changed with task experience. Hierarchical multiple regressions revealed that metacognitive awareness acquired during the RM and PM tasks influenced how older adults’ modified their predictions of subsequent task performance. Findings are consistent with [Toglia and Kirk’s (2000). Understanding awareness deficits following brain injury. NeuroRehabilitation, 15(1), 57–70] hypothesis that individuals compare ongoing performance to expectations based on metacognitive knowledge, such that a discrepancy between actual and expected performance may influence emergent awareness.