Delay, Probability, and Social Discounting in A Public Goods Game

A human social discount function measures the value to a person of a reward to another person at a given social distance. Just as delay discounting is a hyperbolic function of delay, and probability discounting is a hyperbolic function of odds-against, social discounting is a hyperbolic function of social distance. Experiment 1 obtained individual social, delay, and probability discount functions for a hypothetical $75 reward; participants also indicated how much of an initial $100 endowment they would contribute to a common investment in a public good. Steepness of discounting correlated, across participants, among all three discount dimensions. However, only social and probability discounting were correlated with the public-good contribution; high public-good contributors were more altruistic and also less risk averse than low contributors. Experiment 2 obtained social discount functions with hypothetical $75 rewards and delay discount functions with hypothetical $1,000 rewards, as well as public-good contributions. The results replicated those of Experiment 1; steepness of the two forms of discounting correlated with each other across participants but only social discounting correlated with the public-good contribution. Most participants in Experiment 2 predicted that the average contribution would be lower than their own contribution.     

Delay discounting of different outcomes: Review and theory

Steep delay discounting is characterized by a preference for small immediate outcomes relative to larger delayed outcomes and is predictive of drug abuse, risky sexual behaviors, and other maladaptive behaviors. Nancy M. Petry was a pioneer in delay discounting research who demonstrated that people discount delayed monetary gains less steeply than they discount substances with abuse liability. Subsequent research found steep discounting for not only drugs, but other nonmonetary outcomes such as food, sex, and health. In this systematic review, we evaluate the hypotheses proposed to explain differences in discounting as a function of the type of outcome and explore the trait- and state-like nature of delay discounting. We found overwhelming evidence for the state-like quality of delay discounting: Consistent with Petry and others' work, nonmonetary outcomes are discounted more steeply than monetary outcomes. We propose two hypotheses that together may account for this effect: Decreasing Future Preference and Decreasing Future Worth. We also found clear evidence that delay discounting has trait-like qualities: People who steeply discount monetary outcomes steeply discount nonmonetary outcomes as well. The implication is that changing delay discounting for one outcome could change discounting for other outcomes.     

Smokers discount their drug of abuse in the same way as other consumable rewards

Recent research shows that drug abusers discount delayed monetary rewards more than nonabusers do, and they discount delayed substances of abuse (e.g., drugs) more than delayed money. Furthermore, non-drug-abusers discount food and substances of abuse (e.g., alcohol), more than money. Here, we compare the delay and probability discounting of money with that of a directly consumable reward (chocolate) and with that of a substance of abuse (cigarettes), in a drug-using population (smokers). In line with previous research, we found in two experiments that delay discounting differentiated between smokers and nonsmokers, and between money and a nonabused directly consumable reward (chocolate). In addition, our results show that there appears to be no difference in the extent to which smokers discount their abused substance compared to another directly consumable reward. These findings support the contention that drugs and food are part of the same category of primary reinforcers, whereas money is discounted differently, as a conditioned reinforcer.     

Good or Bad,We Want it Now: Fixed‐cost Present Bias for Gains and Losses Explains Magnitude Asymmetries in Intertemporal Choice

Intertemporal tradeoffs are ubiquitous in decision making, yet preferences for current versus future losses are rarely explored in empirical research. Whereas rational‐economic theory posits that neither outcome sign (gains vs. losses) nor outcome magnitude (small vs. large) should affect delay discount rates, both do, and moreover, they interact: in three studies, we show that whereas large gains are discounted less than small gains, large losses are discounted more than small losses. This interaction can be understood through a reconceptualization of fixed‐cost present bias, which has traditionally described a psychological preference for immediate rewards. First, our results establish present bias for losses—a psychological preference to have losses over with now. Present bias thus predicts increased discounting of future gains but decreased (or even negative) discounting of future losses. Second, because present bias preferences do not scale with the magnitude of possible gains or losses, they play a larger role, relative to other motivations for discounting, for small magnitude intertemporal decisions than for large magnitude intertemporal decisions. Present bias thus predicts less discounting of large gains than small gains but more discounting of large losses than small losses. The present research is the first to demonstrate that the effect of outcome magnitude on discount rates may be opposite for gains and losses and also the first to offer a theory (an extension of present bias) and process data to explain this interaction. The results suggest that policy efforts to encourage future‐oriented choices should frame outcomes as large gains or small losses. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Now for Me,Later for Us? Effects of Group Context on Temporal Discounting

Delayed rewards are less valuable than immediate rewards. This well‐established finding has focused almost entirely on individual outcomes. However, are delayed rewards similarly discounted if they are shared by a group? The current article reports on three experiments exploring the effect of group context on delay discounting. Results indicate that discount rates of individual and group rewards were highly correlated, but that respondents were more willing to wait (decreased discounting) for shared outcomes than for individual outcomes. An explanatory model is proposed suggesting that decreased discount rates in group contexts may be due to the way the effects of both delay and social discounting are combined. That is, in a group context, a person values both a future reward (discounted by delay) and a present reward to another person (discounted by the social distance between them). The results are explained by a combined discount function containing a delay factor and a factor representing the social distance between the decision maker and group members. Practical implications of the fact that shared consequences can increase individual self‐control are also discussed. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discounting of food,sex, and money

Discounting is a useful framework for understanding choice involving a range of delayed and probabilistic outcomes (e.g., money, food, drugs), but relatively few studies have examined how people discount other commodities (e.g., entertainment, sex). Using a novel discounting task, where the length of a line represented the value of an outcome and was adjusted using a staircase procedure, we replicated previous findings showing that individuals discount delayed and probabilistic outcomes in a manner well described by a hyperbola-like function. In addition, we found strong positive correlations between discounting rates of delayed, but not probabilistic, outcomes. This suggests that discounting of delayed outcomes may be relatively predictable across outcome types but that discounting of probabilistic outcomes may depend more on specific contexts. The generality of delay discounting and potential context dependence of probability discounting may provide important information regarding factors contributing to choice behavior.     

Are people really more patient than other animals? Evidence from human discounting of real liquid rewards

In previous studies, researchers have found that humans discount delayed rewards orders of magnitude less steeply than do other animals. Humans also discount smaller delayed reward amounts more steeply than larger amounts, whereas animals apparently do not. These differences between humans and animals might reflect differences in the types of rewards studied and/or the fact that animals actually had to wait for their rewards. In the present article, we report the results of three experiments in which people made choices involving liquid rewards delivered and consumed after actual delays, thereby bridging the gap between animal and human studies. Under these circumstances, humans, like animals, discounted the value of rewards delayed by seconds; however, unlike animals, they still showed an effect of reward amount. Human discounting was well described by the same hyperboloid function that has previously been shown to describe animal discounting of delayed food and water rewards, as well as human discounting of real and hypothetical monetary rewards.     

Age-related changes in multi-finger interactions in adults during maximum voluntary finger force production tasks

This study aimed to continue our characterization of finger strength and multi-finger interactions across the lifespan to include those in their 60s and older. Building on our previous study of children, we examined young and elderly adults during isometric finger flexion and extension tasks. Sixteen young and 16 elderly, gender-matched participants produced maximum force using either a single finger or all four fingers in flexion and extension. The maximum voluntary finger force (MVF), the percentage contributions of individual finger forces to the sum of individual finger forces during four-finger MVF task (force sharing), and the non-task finger forces during a task finger MVF task (force enslaving), were computed as dependent variables. Force enslaving during finger extension was greater than during flexion in both young and elderly groups. The flexion-extension difference was greater in the elderly than the young adult group. The greater independency in flexion may result from more frequent use of finger flexion in everyday manipulation tasks. The non-task fingers closer to a task finger produced greater enslaving force than non-task fingers farther from the task finger. The force sharing pattern was not different between age groups. Our findings suggest that finger strength decreases over the aging process, finger independency for flexion increases throughout development, and force sharing pattern remains constant across the lifespan.     

Own-age and own-sex biases in recognition of aged faces

It is surprising how easily we are able to recognize people whom we have not seen in many years, somehow compensating for the aging-related facial changes that occurred. We measured the limits of the ability to recognize faces across the lifespan by young versus old men and women. Images of five males and five females at young and middle ages were morphed in 10% increments to create aged face images across the lifespan. Fifty-eight participants (28 females) judged whether pairs of photographs were of the same or different identity. Women outperformed men for female faces, exhibiting a sex difference and own-sex bias. Additionally, older participants showed an own-age bias and outperformed their younger counterparts with older stimuli. It appears that the recognition of faces is affected by the own-age and own-sex biases, potentially allowing us to remember some people better than others, thus mediating our interaction with the world.     

The Effects of Social Status and Culture on Delay Discounting

People generally tend to discount future outcomes in favor of smaller but immediate gains (i.e., delay discounting). This study examines the hypothesis that culture and social status moderate this tendency, as well as the alternative hypothesis that social status and culture influence delay discounting independently of each other. American and Japanese adults were asked to choose receiving hypothetical monetary rewards either immediately or receiving rewards of different amounts with a delay of 1 year. The results replicated previous findings and supported the alternative hypothesis. Delay discounting was lower when subjective socioeconomic status (i.e., an individual’s perception of her or his social rank) was higher. Also, the Japanese were less likely to discount future rewards than the Americans. However, there was no interaction between social status and culture in influencing the rates of delay discounting.     

Resource slack and propensity to discount delayed investments of time versus money

The authors demonstrate that people discount delayed outcomes as a result of perceived changes over time in supplies of slack. Slack is the perceived surplus of a given resource available to complete a focal task. The present research shows that, in general, people expect slack for time to be greater in the future than in the present. Typically, this expectation of growth of slack in the future is more pronounced for time than for money. In 7 experiments, the authors demonstrate that systematic temporal shifts of perceived slack determine the extent and the pattern of delay discounting, including hyperbolic discounting. They use this framework to explain differential propensity to delay investments and receipts of time and money.     

Intertemporal Framing Issues in Management Compensation

This study investigates whether manager–decision-makers’ expectations about incentive compensation and environmental uncertainty influence investment decisions through their effect on the decision maker's implied discount rate. This is, to our knowledge, a first attempt to manipulate implicit risk, the risk to future payoffs associated with environmental uncertainty. Both these factors and waiting time are expected to influence implied discount rates. The study investigates discount rate influences under both bonus and penalty incentive plans. The hypothetical bonuses are year-end cash bonuses; the penalties are opportunity costs. Responses were analyzed using both analysis of variance and regression. The regression analysis was used to separate time discounting from the other factors affecting implied discount rates. Subjects’ responses to proposed changes in the timing of cash bonuses were dramatic when an expanding economy was suggested. However, subjects’ responses to penalty provisions were less dramatic than corresponding responses to the out-of-pocket negative outcomes studied in previous research. In some situations, penalty provisions may be more effective for inducing investment than bonus provisions. In addition, the results suggest that efforts to change management decision making using deferred compensation may require more deferred compensation than time discounting alone would require.     

Subadditive versus hyperbolic discounting: A comparison of choice and matching

Impulsive and myopic choices are often explained as due to hyperbolic discounting, meaning that people are impatient for outcomes available immediately, and become increasingly more patient the more the outcome is delayed. Recent research, however, has suggested that much experimental evidence for increasing patience is actually due to subadditive discounting: people are less patient (per-time-unit) over shorter intervals regardless of when they occur. Because previous research into subadditive discounting has used a choice elicitation procedure, the present paper tests whether it generalises to matching. We find strong evidence that it does, but also find weak evidence of increasing patience for matching. We suggest, however, that subadditive discounting alone may be sufficient to account for all of our results. We conclude by questioning the contribution that hyperbolic discounting makes to our understanding of time preference.     

Changes in intertemporal choices in deviant behaviors

Delay discounting is the process of devaluing results that happen in the future. We present a comprehensive literature review of changes on intertemporal choices in deviant behaviors, namely in (a) substance-related and addictive disorders, (b) disruptive, impulse-control, and conduct disorders, and (c) eating disorders. We also present studies focused on differences in demographic characteristics of the populations by gender, age, and education/social class. Delay discounting is presented as a process of studying intertemporal choices, resulting from decades of empirical research. Studies indicate that this process may provide explanation as to why individuals will sometimes choose a smaller reward, available sooner, instead of a larger reward available later. When studying populations with the above-mentioned problems, they tend to exhibit more pronounced discounting functions than control groups. The association between discounting and gender is not clear. The relationship between delay discounting and age is relatively clear, where older individuals discount less markedly than younger individuals. Studies suggest that shallower discounting gradients are associated with higher levels of intelligence and academic success. We emphasize the need for more empirical research on delay discounting, especially in regard to deviant behavior that may be associated with impulse-control disorders.     

Asymmetric discounting in intertemporal choice: a query-theory account

People are impatient and discount future rewards more when they are asked to delay consumption than when they are offered the chance to accelerate consumption. The three experiments reported here provide a process-level account for this asymmetry, with implications for designing decision environments that promote less impulsivity. In Experiment 1, a thought-listing procedure showed that people decompose discount valuation into two queries. Whether one considers delayed or accelerated receipt of a gift certificate influences the order in which memory is queried to support immediate versus delayed consumption, and the order of queries affects the relative number of patient versus impatient thoughts. Relative frequency and clustering of impatient thoughts predicts discounting and mediates the discounting asymmetry. Experiment 2 implicated query order causally: When participants listed reasons for immediate versus delayed consumption in the order used spontaneously in acceleration and delay decisions, the discounting asymmetry was replicated; reversing the order in which reasons were listed eliminated the asymmetry. The results of Experiment 3, which used an implicit-memory task, support a memory-interference account of the effect of query order.     

Perspective-taking judgments among young adults, middle-aged, and elderly people

Perspective-taking judgments among young adults, middle-aged, and elderly people were examined. In 1 condition, participants were instructed to judge the likelihood of acceptance of a painkiller as a function of 3 cues: severity of the condition, potential side effects, and level of trust in the health care provider. In the other condition, participants were instructed to judge the likelihood of purchasing pieces of clothing. Judgments were given from 2 viewpoints: the viewpoint of another person known to place no importance on one of the 3 cues, and the viewpoint of another person known to place very great importance on this cue. The hypotheses were that elderly people would not, to the same extent as young adults, be likely to discount the impact of the "no-importance" cue, and to magnify the impact of the "very important" cue. In both judgment situations, the results support these hypotheses.     

Degree of Delay Discounting as a Function of Who Receives the Outcome and the Discounter’s Perceived Level of Social Support

Delay discounting occurs when the subjective value of an outcome decreases as its delivery is delayed. The present study investigated whether how individuals discount delayed outcomes would vary as a function of who would hypothetically experience the outcome and the participants’ perceived level of social support. In Experiment One, 600 university students completed a measure of perceived social support and a discounting task involving four different outcomes, with different groups differing in terms of who would hypothetically receive the outcome being discounted (themselves, their mother, or a classmate). The degree of discounting did not vary as a function of recipient of the outcome, but did vary significantly and inversely with perceived level of social support. Experiment Two replicated the effect of perceived social support in 488 university students, but failed to demonstrate that the degree of discounting varied as a function of the level of social support available to the recipient of the outcome being discounted. These results suggest that people discount outcomes similarly regardless of who will be the recipient of the outcome, but that rates of discounting are reliably altered by the discounter’s own perceived level of social support. The latter finding is potentially informative as to why social-support groups may be valuable in therapeutic environments.     

Are juvenile offenders extreme future discounters?

It has been the prevailing view that young offenders are more present oriented than their peers, but this view has little empirical basis other than the actions that have defined these youth as offenders. In the present study, we used a decision task with actual monetary consequences to assess the tendency of young offenders and a control group of high school students to discount the future. The young offenders were not significantly different from the students in discounting the future, even though the young offenders scored significantly higher on a sensation-seeking personality scale, were less likely to have lived with their fathers, and had changed schools more often. Young offenders and control participants were also similar in the extent to which they manifested a clear vision of the future by anticipating which future milestones would occur sooner, in a task pairing milestones with each other and with year markers.     

Discounting by Probabilistic Waiting

In everyday life, many probabilistic situations may be characterized as probabilistic waiting. A gambler, for example, bets repeatedly at the racetrack, the casino, or the card table. The gambler may not win on the first try, but if a gamble is repeated enough times, a win is almost certain to occur eventually. If repeated gambles are structured as strings of losses ending in a win (probabilistic waiting) and the amount won is discounted by the delay caused by the series of losses, then strings with many losses will be discounted more than those with fewer losses, thereby causing subjective value of the series of gambles as a whole to increase. The current study used the opposite effect that amount has on the degree of delay and probability discounting as a marker to determine whether people evaluate situations involving probabilistic waiting as they evaluate situations involving delayed outcomes or as situations involving probabilistic outcomes. We find that the more likely a probabilistic waiting situation is to end in reward (e.g., a gamble is repeated indefinitely until reward is obtained), the more that situation conforms to delay discounting; the less likely a probabilistic waiting situation is to end in reward (e.g., a fixed, small number of gambles), the more that situation conforms to probability discounting. We argue that the former situation is applicable to pathological gambling, and that people with steep delay discount functions would therefore be more likely to have gambling problems. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.