PREDICATION AND EXTENSIONALIZATION

In his 2000 book Logical Properties Colin McGinn argues that predicates denote properties rather than sets or individuals. I support the thesis, but show that it is vulnerable to a type-incongruity objection, if properties are (modelled as) functions, unless a device for extensionalizing properties is added. Alternatively, properties may be construed as primitive intensional entities, as in George Bealer. However, I object to Bealer’s construal of predication as a primitive operation inputting two primitive entities and outputting a third primitive entity. Instead I recommend we follow Pavel Tichy in construing both predication and extensionalization as instances of the primitive operation of functional application.     

THE PREDICTION OF OCCUPATIONAL SUCCESS AND PROFICIENCY

Neither standardized test data nor grades made in required courses in high school contribute significantly to the prediction of occupational success or proficiency. The General Aptitude Test Battery makes practically no contribution to the prediction of success although the instrument is widely used to predict trainability. Intelligence test scores are of little value in predicting success in the labor market. It may be that efforts to predict occupational success and proficiency are in reality exercises in futility since workers tend to be successful regardless of test results. Apparently workers find places where they are considered successful. Possibly new research designs will be required before success can be predicted. Success should not be considered an entity, however, because it does not lend itself to exact measurement.     

NUMBER AND SPECIFICITY OF PERFORMANCE OUTCOMES IN THE PREDICTION OF ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIORAL INTENTIONS

The problem of how many performance outcomes to use and how specific they should be in predicting satisfaction and behavioral intentions was addressed. 323 soldiers responded to a desirability and instrumentality scale for each of 16 potential outcomes obtainable from outstanding performance. Scores were factor analysed and composites were formed to reflect each dimension. Three criteria (satisfaction, perceived effort and intention to reenlist) were predicted using (a) all 16 outcome items, (b) only 11 items defining four outcome dimensions and (c) 4 items only, each item reflecting an outcome dimension. In all cases, the 11-item set was a better predictor than the 16-item set, and the 4-item set was nearly as effective as the 16-item set. Instrumentalities were found to be significantly better predictors of satisfaction than of effort, while the reverse was true of valences. It was suggested that adequacy of coverage of the out come domain rather than list length or outcome specificity, was the critical issue in improving predictability.     

TURNOVER ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION FROM A CAREER DEVELOPMENTAL POINT OF VIEW

Demographic and psychological characteristics of 479 job leavers from two plants were processed, and work stability of 110 previously tested subjects was followed up for up to eight years. The study revealed that job quitting is a career decision depending upon career type, career stage and the characteristics of the organization, from the career development point of view. These variables make it possible to predict leaving decisions by employees, and also job stability.     

THE SEMANTICS OF FACIAL EXPRESSIONS AND THE PREDICTION OF THE MEANINGS OF STEREOSCOPICALLY FUSED FACIAL EXPRESSIONS

Two experiments were concerned with scaling affective meanings of posed facial expressions using a specially devised form of semantic differential and with determining the extent to which the meaning of stereoscopically fused facial expressions could be predicted. Both experiments provided evidence for at least three dimensions. High reliability for scaling the affective meanings of facial expressions was demonstrated. Two methods were employed for predicting the meaning of a composite expression. The results indicated that the predictions based on the congruity principle do no better than those based on a simple algebraic mean of the two components.     

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MOTHERS AND FATHERS IN PREDICTION OF SON'S PERFORMANCE IN EASY THROUGH DIFFICULT EXAMS*

Twenty-four Indian couples predicted in confidentiality to the school principal, the performance, in very easy, ok, and very difficult exams, of several 12-year-old boys, presented as their only son. As hypothesized, pattern in the Motivation X Ability effect depended upon the experience of subjects with the task and the difficulty of the exams. Prediction by mothers conformed to the patterns of parallelism and linear fan; those by fathers conformed to the patterns of parallelism and convergence. The findings of the present research and those of past research lead to the conclusion that the egalitarian (i.e., pattern of parallelism), elitist (i.e., pattern of linear fan), and Horatio Alger (i.e., pattern of convergence) beliefs are present in Indian, as well as in North-American adults, but that Indians manifest the elitist and Horatio Alger beliefs very selectively. The implications of these results for cross-cultural research on cognitive processes and for the understanding of differences between mothers and fathers in the cognition of their son are discussed.     

JUDGMENTAL VERSUS STATISTICAL PREDICTION:

Abstract— The relative predictive accuracy of humans and statistical models has long been the subject of controversy even though models have demonstrated superior performance in many studies. We propose that relative performance depends on the amount of contextual information available and whether it is distributed symmetrically to humans and models. Given their different strengths, human and statistical predictions can be profitably combined to improve prediction.     

PREDICTION OF TRADES APPRENTICES'PERFORMANCE ON JOB SAMPLE CRITERIA

A criterion-related validation was conducted to assess the validity of four aptitude tests and five tests of content taken directly from job tasks in predicting job sample performance of apprentices in eight skilled trades. Observed validities were above .40 (corrected for range restriction, validities averaged .52). Though there were large subgroup mean differences on both predictor and criterion measures, there was no evidence of significant differential prediction.     

NOTE ON THE PREDICTION OF FACTORIALLY COMPLEX CLASSES

Indices of the discriminatory power of items, based on the differences in performances of groups, can be influenced by the degree of factorial mixture with respect to such groups. An illustrative example is presented, using hypothetical data. Items, normally rejected on the basis of such discriminatory tests, may be of value for predictive purposes. An empirical example of such a use is offered.