Evidence against Rank-Dependent Utility Theories: Tests of Cumulative Independence,Interval Independence,Stochastic Dominance,and Transitivity

This study tests between two modern theories of decision making. Rank- and sign-dependent utility (RSDU) models, including cumulative prospect theory (CPT), imply stochastic dominance and two cumulative independence conditions. Configural weight models, with parameters estimated in previous research, predict systematic violations of these properties for certain choices. Experimental data systematically violate all three properties, contrary to RSDU but consistent with configural weight models. This study also tests whether violations of stochastic dominance can be explained by violations of transitivity. Violations of transitivity may be evidence of a dominance detecting mechanism. Although some transitivity violations were observed, most choice triads violated stochastic dominance without violating transitivity. Judged differences between gambles were not consistent with the CPT model. Data were not consistent with the editing principles of cancellation and combination. The main findings are interpreted in terms of coalescing, the principle that equal outcomes can be combined in a gamble by adding their probabilities. RSDU models imply coalescing but configural weight models violate it, allowing configural weighting to explain violations of stochastic dominance and cumulative independence.     

The Common Ratio Effect in Choice,Pricing, and Happiness Tasks

The Allais common ratio effect is one of the most robust violations of rational decision making under risk. In this paper, we conduct a novel test of the common ratio effect in which we elicit preferences for the common ratio choice alternatives in choice, pricing, and happiness rating tasks. We find large shifts in preference patterns across tasks, both within and between subjects. In particular, we find that both the consistency and distribution of responses differ systematically across tasks, with modal choices replicating the Allais preference pattern, modal happiness ratings exhibiting consistent risk aversion, and modal prices maximizing expected value. We discuss the predictions of various cognitive explanations of the common ratio effect in the context of our experiment. We find that a dual process framework provides the most complete account of our results. Surprisingly, we also find that although the Allais pattern was the modal behavior in the choice task, none of the 158 respondents in our experiment exhibited the Allais pattern simultaneously in choice, happiness, and pricing tasks. Our results constitute a new paradox for the leading theories of choice under risk. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

内群体偏爱或黑羊效应?经济博弈中公平规范执行的群体偏见

公平规范执行代指人们自愿损耗利益来惩罚违反公平原则行为的意愿和行为, 被视为人类社会的重要特征及维持合作行为的关键因素。群体认同是指个体对其所属群体身份的知觉及其所付诸于该群体身份上的价值与情绪, 直接影响着群际互动中人们的公平规范执行行为。基于多种资产分配任务, 国内外学者发现公平规范执行中群体偏见存在两种矛盾的表现形式：人们有时更愿意接受内群体成员的不公提议, 表现为内群体偏爱现象(the in-group favoritism, IGF), 有时又更愿意拒绝内群体成员的不公提议, 表现出黑羊效应(the black sheep effect, BSE)。当前, 纯粹偏好理论和规范聚焦理论常被用来解释上述两种相悖的现象。未来研究应侧重从多种视角揭示公平规范执行偏见的边界条件, 比较多种线索操纵所致偏见的差异性, 促进两种理论的融合与补充, 并增强其潜在神经机制的探索。     

A dynamic, stochastic, computational model of preference reversal phenomena

Preference orderings among a set of options may depend on the elicitation method (e.g., choice or pricing); these preference reversals challenge traditional decision theories. Previous attempts to explain these reversals have relied on allowing utility of the options to change across elicitation methods by changing the decision weights, the attribute values, or the combination of this information--still, no theory has successfully accounted for all the phenomena. In this article, the authors present a new computational model that accounts for the empirical trends without changing decision weights, values, or combination rules. Rather, the current model specifies a dynamic evaluation and response process that correctly predicts preference orderings across 6 elicitation methods, retains stable evaluations across methods, and makes novel predictions regarding response distributions and response times.     

Self-reported Deviant Computer Behavior: A Big-5, Moral Choice,and Manipulative Exploitive Behavior Analysis

Many criminological theories about individual violation can be broadly classified into two groups: (1) those that attempt to explain the violation of personally held conventional norms and values (normative violations) and (2) those that attempt to explain the following of deviant norms and values (cultural deviance). We argue that each set of theories focuses on a unique dependent variable, but that social learning is one example of a theory that explicitly integrates these dependent variables under one explanatory heading. This important difference in what theories are trying to explain has been downplayed in criminology, with potentially serious consequences. The failure to provide accurate, focused measures of the correct dependent variables may have produced empirical findings that are weaker than expected. This article takes a step toward rectifying this important problem. It presents a discussion of the different sets of theories and of the attempt by social learning theory to explain both of behavior; in addition, it spells out the implications for research of this difference.     

THE BEAUTIFUL AND THE SUBLIME IN NATURAL SCIENCE

The various aesthetic phenomena found repeatedly in the scientific enterprise stem from the role of God as artist. If the Creator is an artist, how and why natural scientists study the divine art work can be understood using theological aesthetics and the philosophy of art. The aesthetic phenomena considered here are as follows. First, science reveals beauty and the sublime in natural phenomena. Second, science discovers beauty and the sublime in the theories that are developed to explain natural phenomena. Third, the search for beauty often guides scientists in their work. Fourth, where beauty is perceived, feelings of the sublime often also follow upon further contemplation. This linkage of beauty in science with truth and the sublime runs counter to most aesthetic theory since Kant. Scholarship in theological aesthetics has recently argued that the modern and postmodern elevation of the sublime over beauty is merely a preference that reveals a bias against transcendence—against God. If doing and understanding science can show this sundering of the sublime from the beautiful to be in error, science also gives evidence of transcendence.     

风险决策心理因素的理论综述

风险决策理论对于人们是否作出冒险行为的选择提出了两种比较典型的解释:一种解释把风险决策归因于人们共有的基本过程,即“较冷”的心理和认知过程。这些理论认为风险选择是由人类基本的心理和感觉机制引起的。而另一种解释则把风险决策归因于“较热”的情感和动机过程。这些理论认为,情境和人格因素会增强风险决策的动机并导致风险决策个体差异的存在。本文对这两种解释的不同理论作了较为系统的论述。     

Implicit theories in driving: Scale development,validation, and predictive role on violations and driving self-efficacy

Implicit theories focus on how ability may be perceived by individuals. There are two main beliefs: entity beliefs (i.e., driving ability is a gift) and incremental beliefs (i.e., driving ability is improvable through effort). Implicit theories have been studied in various domains (e.g., education, sport), but never in driving, even though they could improve the knowledge of drivers’ psychological characteristics. The first objective of the present study was to develop and validate a questionnaire measuring implicit theories in driving. The second objective was to assess the predictive role of implicit theories on violations and driving self-efficacy, and the moderating role of gender. In study 1, confirmatory factor analysis, analyses of gender invariance, and concurrent validity were assessed to validate the questionnaire named Implicit Theories in Driving Questionnaire (ITDQ). In study 2, the predictive role of implicit theories on violations and driving self-efficacy was evaluated using multiple regression analyses. Moderation analyses evaluated the moderating role of gender on the relationships between implicit theories and violations, along with driving self-efficacy. The ITDQ showed acceptable psychometric properties. The results highlighted that entity beliefs positively predicted aggressive violations and negatively predicted driving self-efficacy. Conversely, incremental beliefs negatively predicted ordinary violations and positively predicted driving self-efficacy. The ITDQ is a valid scale now available for assessing implicit theories in driving, that have been shown to influence self-reported driving behavior. Future research on implicit theories in driving may help to better understand the psychological characteristics of at-risk drivers and improve driver’s training, to reduce the number of road accidents.     

INTERPRETIVE PRAXIS AND THEORY-NETWORKS

Abstract:  I develop the idea of what I call an interpretive praxis as a generalized procedure for analyzing how experimenters can formulate observable predictions, discern real effects from experimental artifacts, and compare predictions with data. An interpretive praxis requires theories – theories not only about instruments and the interpretation of phenomena, but also theories that connect the use of instruments and interpretation of phenomena to high-level theory. I will call all such theories that enable experimentation to work intermediate theories . I offer an account of theory-networks that embrace these intermediate theories and explain their functions.     

Reproductive Freedom, Educational Equality, And Females' Preference for Resource-Acquisition Characteristics in Mates

Females' preference for resource-acquisition characteristics in mates has been explained as an evolved psychological mechanism that conveyed reproductive advantage to human ancestors. To explore the hypothesis that females express this preference more strongly when their educational opportunities and reproductive freedom are limited, we reanalyzed mate-preference data collected from 37 cultures by Buss et al. (1990). The results demonstrate that females (but not males) strongly prefer resource-acquisition characteristics in mates when they live in cultures low in both female reproductive freedom and educational equality between the sexes. Discussion focuses on how evolutionary, interactionist, and social-role theories might explain these results.     

Inferring design: evidence of a preference for teleological explanations in patients with Alzheimer's disease

Unlike educated adults, young children demonstrate a "promiscuous" tendency to explain objects and phenomena by reference to functions, endorsing what are called teleological explanations. This tendency becomes more selective as children acquire increasingly coherent beliefs about causal mechanisms, but it is unknown whether a widespread preference for teleology is ever truly outgrown. The study reported here investigated this question by examining explanatory judgments in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD), whose dementia affects the rich causal beliefs adults typically consult in evaluating explanations. The results indicate that unlike healthy adults, AD patients systematically and promiscuously prefer teleological explanations, suggesting that an underlying tendency to construe the world in terms of functions persists throughout life. This finding has broad relevance not only to understanding conceptual impairments in AD, but also to theories of development, learning, and conceptual change. Moreover, this finding sheds light on the intuitive appeal of creationism.     

An Empirical Comparison of Three Theories of Nonverbal Immediacy Exchange

This study provides a contrastive test of three immediacy-exchange theories: Burgeon's expectancy violations theory (EVT), Cappella and Greene's discrepancy-arousal theory (DAT), and Andersen's cognitive valence theory (CVT). EVT predicts that high immediacy, by rewarding communicators, leads to an orientation response and positive behavioral and affective outcomes. In contrast, DAT and CVT predict aversive arousal and compensatory responses in response to high immediacy increases. Findings from opposite-sex friend dyads failed to find unequivocal support for a single theory. Targets showed a mix of reciprocal and compensatory responses in the higher immediacy condition, indicating that existing immediacy-exchange theories should consider incorporating elements from all three theories and perhaps from dialectics theory to explain the complex reactions that occur in response to high immediacy changes from friends.     

Causes of Allais common consequence paradoxes: An experimental dissection

The common consequence paradox of Allais can be decomposed into three simpler principles: transitivity, coalescing, and restricted branch independence. Different theories attribute such paradoxes to violations of restricted branch independence only, to coalescing only, or to both. This study separates tests of these two properties in order to compare these theories. Although rank-dependent utility (RDU) theories, including cumulative prospect theory (CPT), violate branch independence, the empirical pattern of violations is opposite that required by RDU theories to account for Allais paradoxes. Data also show systematic violations of coalescing, which refute RDU theories. The findings contradict both original and CPTs with or without their editing principles of combination and cancellation. Modal choices were well predicted by Birnbaum's RAM and TAX models with parameters estimated from previous data. The effects of event framing on these tests were also assessed and found to be negligible.     

Attribution bias: On the inconclusiveness of the cognition-motivation debate

Social psychologists have given considerable theoretical and research attention to whether motivational variables bias the attributions people make for behavior. Some theorists maintain that motivational constructs must be invoked to explain certain attributional phenomena; other theorists maintain that information-processing variables can adequately explain these phenomena. The present article critically examines existing cognitive and motivational approaches to attribution and analyzes the assumptions underlying the cognition-motivation debate. We argue that cognitive and motivational theories are currently empirically indistinguishable. In particular, its is possible to construct information-processing explanations for virtually all evidence for motivated bias. We conclude by examining the implications of this indeterminacy of cognitive and motivational explanations. Future research in the area can most profitably be addressed to improving the specificity of cognitive and motivational theories rather than to resolving the between-theory confrontation.     

A critical review of the physicalistic approaches of the mind and consciousness

The aim of this paper is to construct a critical evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of the physicalistic theory concerning mental phenomena and consciousness. Physicalism can, better than other theories, explain mental phenomena, such as intentionality and reasonability of human beings and other biological organisms. Modern neuroscience corroborates the conviction that the brain is a physical mind capable of giving meaning to, evaluating and further cognitively and behaviorally transforming complex aspects of the world. On the other hand, the emergence of consciousness from brain states seems to be a paradoxical, intransparent, physical coincidence hardly explained by the mental function of the brain at the physical level. Moreover, the intentionality and reasonability of psychic phenomena per se cannot be explained as a repercussion of the same attributes characterizing the brain function. In conclusion, the old debate between physicalism and other philosophical theories remains open. It can be expected that the progress of sciences will inspire novel approaches to the problem of the relations between matter, mind and consciousness.     

概念组合的理论模型

概念组合是将两个或多个概念组合成一个新概念的过程,生成的新概念被称为组合概念。组合概念的解释策略及影响因素已成为概念研究中的热点问题。研究者相继提出了关系竞争理论、双重加工理论和约束理论等模型。但是,这些理论模型只能解释特定的实验现象,对某些稳定的实验现象（如涌现特征、范畴效应等）却缺乏解释力度。文章提出,未来的研究应该整合已有的实验现象和理论模型,关注概念组合的时间进程,深入考察语境的作用,并系统地研究组合概念的涌现特征和范畴效应。     

Someone is pulling the strings: hypersensitive agency detection and belief in conspiracy theories

We hypothesised that belief in conspiracy theories would be predicted by the general tendency to attribute agency and intentionality where it is unlikely to exist. We further hypothesised that this tendency would explain the relationship between education level and belief in conspiracy theories, where lower levels of education have been found to be associated with higher conspiracy belief. In Study 1 (N = 202) participants were more likely to agree with a range of conspiracy theories if they also tended to attribute intentionality and agency to inanimate objects. As predicted, this relationship accounted for the link between education level and belief in conspiracy theories. We replicated this finding in Study 2 (N = 330), whilst taking into account beliefs in paranormal phenomena. These results suggest that education may undermine the reasoning processes and assumptions that are reflected in conspiracy belief.     

Agents and Causes: Dispositional Intuitions As a Guide to Causal Structure

Currently, two frameworks of causal reasoning compete: Whereas dependency theories focus on dependencies between causes and effects, dispositional theories model causation as an interaction between agents and patients endowed with intrinsic dispositions. One important finding providing a bridge between these two frameworks is that failures of causes to generate their effects tend to be differentially attributed to agents and patients regardless of their location on either the cause or the effect side. To model different types of error attribution, we augmented a causal Bayes net model with separate error sources for causes and effects. In several experiments, we tested this new model using the size of Markov violations as the empirical indicator of differential assumptions about the sources of error. As predicted by the model, the size of Markov violations was influenced by the location of the agents and was moderated by the causal structure and the type of causal variables.     

心理不安全状态下决策者的风险偏好

心理不安全感是指人们对可能遭受的伤害与威胁的担忧与焦虑。当下, 许多个体都是在心理不安全的状态下进行决策。对于心理不安全状态下的风险偏好规律, 现有研究得到了矛盾的结果。此外, 心理安全感对风险偏好的作用机制尚不明确。本研究聚焦心理安全感对风险偏好的影响, 考察心理安全感的补偿机制在其中的中介作用, 并探讨选项分布情况在其中的调节作用, 以此揭示心理安全感为何及如何作用于风险偏好。研究结果将有助于明确决策者在心理不安全状态下的风险偏好规律, 从而完善现有的风险决策理论。同时, 为公共管理政策制定提供科学依据。     

Modal reasoning, models, and Manktelow and Over.

Manktelow and Over (1991) argue that their studies of Wason's selection task favor explanations of deontic reasoning based on mental models, but that such theories need to incorporate utilities. This theoretical note proposes a simpler explanation of the phenomena: subjects in the selection task consider only those cards that are explicitly represented in their models of the conditional, and so insight into the task depends on constructing fully explicit models. Such models for modal conditionals of the form, If p occurs then q may occur are: [formula: see text] Each line denotes a separate model, and the models represent either what is possible, or, in the deontic interpretation, what is permissible. A deontic rule is accordingly violated by the contingency: [symbol: see text] p and q, for example the rule, "If you spend more than 100 pounds, then you may take a free gift" is violated by taking the free gift (q) but not spending more than 100 pounds ([symbol: see text] p). If the rule is interpreted as a bi-conditional, then the second of the models, p and [symbol: see text] q, is also now a violation, for example spending more than 100 pounds (p) but not getting the free gift ([symbol: see text] q). Manktelow and Over's instructions lead subjects to focus on one or other of the two sorts of violations of the rule. There is accordingly no need to introduce utilities into models in order to explain the phenomena.