Verbalization of Decision Strategies in Multiple‐Cue Probabilistic Inference

In multiple‐cue probabilistic inference, people choose between alternatives based on several cues, each of which is differentially associated with an alternative's overall value. Various strategies have been proposed for probabilistic inference (e.g., weighted additive, tally, and take‐the‐best). These strategies differ in how many cue values they require to enact and in how they weight each cue. Do decision makers actually use any of these strategies? Ways to investigate this question include analyzing people's choices and the cues that they reveal. However, different strategies often predict the same decisions, and search behavior says nothing about whether or how people use the information that they acquire. In this research, we attempt to elucidate which strategies participants use in a multiple‐cue probabilistic inference task by examining verbal protocols, a high‐density source of process data. The promise of verbal data is in their utility for testing detailed information processing models. To that end, we apply protocol analysis in conjunction with computational simulations. We find converging evidence across outcome measures, search measures, and verbal reports that most participants use simplifying heuristics, namely take‐the‐best. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

世界大学排名比较中的再认启发式和线索推断

针对三种世界大学排名比较任务(综合实力、商业与管理专业、农业与林业专业),用问卷调查了208名大学生并考察其利用再认启发式和额外线索作推断的情况。结果发现:(1)被试在前两种任务中的正确率均超过60%,选择可再认学校的比率及其正确率也较高;(2)比较类别对再认的选择率及其正确率均有显著影响,效应量很大;(3)再认效度较低或无法利用再认时,被试的选择在不同程度上符合外国线索或专长线索的预测;(4)多出一条不利线索时,再认选择率比只有再认线索时有所降低但不低于50%,多出一条有利线索时,再认选择率的变化因线索而异,不一定显著地增加。     

Seeking authenticity in diverse contexts: How identities and environments constrain “free” choice

Diversity and inclusion are a key goal in 21st century society, but people continue to self‐segregate in occupations, communities, and everyday interactions. Are people's choices to separate by groups into these different spaces truly “free?” In this paper, we review and extend a new framework for understanding how social identities contextually and automatically constrain the choices people make. We consider how situations subtly cue a sense of fit to one's identity, automatically eliciting state authenticity and a desire to return to those settings that afford authenticity and avoid those that do not. Actors and observers alike often explain these behaviors after the fact as freely chosen. We discuss how the SAFE model can clarify and expand what it means to feel a sense of belonging and explain why those who are advantaged in a setting are often less aware of the way in which their identity advantages them. We end by highlighting how environments can be shaped to foster fit and authenticity among members of underrepresented groups as a means to facilitate diversity.     

Do People Order Cues by Retrieval Fluency when Making Probabilistic Inferences?

In multiple‐cue probabilistic inferences, people infer alternatives' unknown values on decision criteria, using alternatives' attributes as cues. Some inferential strategies, like take‐the‐best, assume that people consider relevant cues sequentially in order of decreasing validity. This assumption has been deemed cognitively implausible by some, who suggest memory retrieval principles to guide cue order. We test whether memory‐based inferences are better described by a model considering cues in order of validity or in order of memory retrieval. In an experiment, we manipulated the frequency with which cues appeared in a learning phase, increasing retrieval fluency of cue values related to the more frequently appearing cue. In a subsequent decision phase, participants made a series of two‐alternative decisions based on the learned cue values. We compared two sequential sampling models, which differed in whether cues are sampled in order of subjective cue validity or in order of retrieval fluency. To model retrieval order of cues in the fluency sampling model, we used the declarative memory theory embedded in the ACT‐R cognitive architecture. Most participants' decisions were best described by the model sampling cues in order of memory retrieval. Only a minority of participants were classified as sampling cues by validity. Our result suggests that retrieval fluency is the primary driver of cue order in inferences from memory, irrespective of the cues' validities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of perceptual distinctiveness on the prospective and retrospective components of prospective memory in young and old adults.

In two experiments, the effect of perceptual distinctiveness of cues on prospective memory performance was examined. Young and older adults completed a visual search task with embedded prospective memory instructions. On each trial, participants were asked to indicate the position of a target letter in a letter string, unless either of two letters previously identified as prospective memory cues was presented. Each prospective cue was associated with a specific response. Perceptual distinctiveness was manipulated by spatially displacing a single letter. The prospective component (successful detection of the cue) and the retrospective memory component (recalling the correct response when a cue is detected) were measured separately. Perceptual displacement of cues modulated performance of the prospective component but not the retrospective component. Young adults successfully detected a larger proportion of cues (prospective component) than older adults. However, there were minimal effects of age and no effect of cue displacement on participants' ability to recall the intention once they detected a cue (retrospective component performance). Results are discussed within the context of current theoretical models of prospective memory.     

Which cues are available to 24-month-olds? Evidence from point-of-gaze measures during search

In previous research 2-year-olds have failed to show knowledge of solidity in a search task in which a ball rolled behind a screen and was stopped by a barrier. The screen had four doors and the barrier was visible above the door hiding the ball. To establish what cues 2-year-olds might be using, precise point-of-gaze measures were taken during the hiding event. A transparent screen with opaque doors provided two cues: (1) the ball could be tracked until it failed to emerge, and (2) the barrier's position could indicate the correct door. Point-of-gaze measures revealed that children failed to use the more indirect cue of the barrier, which requires reasoning and spatial integration. Their search success was predicted only by the more immediate cue of actively tracking the ball. These findings support the claim that children use best those cues directly related to the object's disappearance, while failing to use cues that entail higher cognitive demands.     

Beyond naïve cue combination: salience and social cues in early word learning

Children learn their earliest words through social interaction, but it is unknown how much they rely on social information. Some theories argue that word learning is fundamentally social from its outset, with even the youngest infants understanding intentions and using them to infer a social partner's target of reference. In contrast, other theories argue that early word learning is largely a perceptual process in which young children map words onto salient objects. One way of unifying these accounts is to model word learning as weighted cue combination, in which children attend to many potential cues to reference, but only gradually learn the correct weight to assign each cue. We tested four predictions of this kind of naïve cue combination account, using an eye‐tracking paradigm that combines social word teaching and two‐alternative forced‐choice testing. None of the predictions were supported. We thus propose an alternative unifying account: children are sensitive to social information early, but their ability to gather and deploy this information is constrained by domain‐general cognitive processes. Developmental changes in children's use of social cues emerge not from learning the predictive power of social cues, but from the gradual development of attention, memory, and speed of information processing.     

Integrating Fast and Frugal Heuristics with a Model of Memory‐based Cue Generation

Although the fast and frugal heuristics have been studied extensively, relatively little attention has been paid to how cues are generated to be used within the heuristics. The goal of this paper is to propose and test a memory‐based model of how cues are generated and used in cue‐based inferences. The current study advances theory by integrating the fast and frugal heuristics with HyGene, a memory‐based model of how decision makers generate and evaluate hypotheses. Using archival data in which memory retrieval variables were not directly manipulated, we demonstrate that participants' cue selection behavior is consistent with memory‐based retrieval. Further, by directly manipulating memory retrieval within a cue‐based stock‐forecasting task, we demonstrate that memory processes underlie cue use. Participants' cue use varied depending on the relationship between cue validity and the frequency with which the cues were seen during learning. The HyGene model provided the best account of the empirical data, providing further evidence for the critical role of memory in judgment and decision making. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The road to the unconscious self not taken: Discrepancies between self‐ and observer‐inferences about implicit dispositions from nonverbal behavioural cues

To what extent can individuals gain insight into their own or another person's implicit dispositions' We investigated whether self‐perceivers versus neutral observers can detect implicit dispositions from nonverbal behavioural cues contained in video feedback (cue validity) and whether these cues are in turn used as a valid basis for explicit dispositional inferences (cue utilization). Across three studies in the domains of extraversion and anxiety we consistently obtained reliable cue validity and cue utilization for neutral observers but not for self‐perceivers. An additional measure of state inferences in Study 3 showed that one reason for the lack of mediation in self‐perceivers is their reluctance to use their state inferences as a basis for more general trait inferences. We conclude that people have a ‘blind spot’ with respect to the nonverbal behavioural manifestations of their unconscious selves, even though neutral observers may readily detect and utilize this information for dispositional inferences. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial Correspondence Learning is Critical for the Sequence Effects of Symbolic Cueing

Attention orienting has been found to be influenced by the previous cueing status in a spatial cueing paradigm. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the cue predictive values or the spatial correspondence learning between cues and targets could influence the sequence effect of symbolic cueing. The findings revealed that the predictive values of arrow or word cues do not lead to different sequence effects, but that visually asymmetrical letter cues, which allow spatial correspondence learning between cues and targets, induce stronger sequence effects than visually symmetrical letter cues. In addition, visually symmetrical directional word cues can induce sequence effects. The results suggest that spatial correspondence learning, although not obligatory, is critical for the sequence effects of symbolic cueing. The findings support the feature‐integration hypothesis, rather than the strategic adjustments account.     

Functional learning among children, adolescents, and young adults

This study examined age-related differences in functional learning performance manifested among children, adolescents, and young adults placed in a two-cue ecology involving cues with direct relation and inverse relations with the criterion. On each trial, participants were instructed to consider the values taken by two cues, predict from these two values the value of a criterion, and finally examine the corresponding feedback value (i.e., the correct value of the criterion for this situation). The authors' hypotheses were that: (a) very few children under 11 years of age would be able to learn how to use the inverse relation cue for predicting the criterion, although they would be able to correctly use the direct relation cue; (b) most adolescents and young adults over 17 years of age would be able to learn how to use the inverse relation cue and combine it with the direct relation cue; and (c) adolescents between 11 and 17 years of age would show various levels of achievement. In general, these predictions were confirmed. Not until 11 years was a substantial proportion of participants (23%) able to reject the direct relation hypothesis and select the inverse relation hypothesis during learning.     

Multiple cue use and integration in pigeons (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Columba livia</Emphasis>)

Encoding multiple cues can improve the accuracy and reliability of navigation and goal localization. Problems may arise, however, if one cue is displaced and provides information which conflicts with other cues. Here we investigated how pigeons cope with cue conflict by training them to locate a goal relative to two landmarks and then varying the amount of conflict between the landmarks. When the amount of conflict was small, pigeons tended to integrate both cues in their search patterns. When the amount of conflict was large, however, pigeons used information from both cues independently. This context-dependent strategy for resolving spatial cue conflict agrees with Bayes optimal calculations for using information from multiple sources.     

The impact of bilingual environments on selective attention in infancy

Bilingualism has been observed to influence cognitive processing across the lifespan but whether bilingual environments have an effect on selective attention and attention strategies in infancy remains an unresolved question. In Study 1, infants exposed to monolingual or bilingual environments participated in an eye‐tracking cueing task in which they saw centrally presented stimuli followed by a target appearing on either the left or right side of the screen. Halfway through the trials, the central stimuli reliably predicted targets' locations. In Study 2, the first half of the trials consisted of centrally presented cues that predicted targets' locations; in the second half, the cue–target location relation switched. All infants performed similarly in Study 1, but in Study 2 infants raised in bilingual, but not monolingual, environments were able to successfully update their expectations by making more correct anticipatory eye movements to the target and expressing faster reactive eye latencies toward the target in the post‐switch condition. The experience of attending to a complex environment in which infants simultaneously process and contrast two languages may account for why infants raised in bilingual environments have greater attentional control than those raised in monolingual environments.     

Landmark use by Clark’s nutcrackers (Nucifraga columbiana): influence of disorientation and cue rotation on distance and direction estimates

Many species have been shown to encode multiple sources of information to orient. To examine what kinds of information animals use to locate a goal we manipulated cue rotation, cue availability, and inertial orientation when the food-storing Clark’s nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) was searching for a hidden goal in a circular arena. Three groups of birds were used, each with a different goal–landmark distance. As the distance between the goal and the landmark increased, nutcrackers were less accurate in finding the correct direction to the goal than they were at estimating the distance (Experiment 1). To further examine what cues the birds were using to calculate direction, the featural cues within the environment were rotated by 90° and the birds were either oriented when searching (Experiments 2 and 3) or disoriented (Experiment 3). In Experiment 4, all distinctive visual cues were removed (both internal and external to the environment), a novel point of entry was used and the birds were either oriented or disoriented. We found that disorienting the nutcrackers so that they could not use inertial cues did not influence the birds’ total search error. The birds relied heavily but not completely on cues within the environment, as rotating available cues caused them to systematically shift their search behavior. In addition, the birds also relied to some extent on Earth-based cues. These results show the flexible nature of cue use by the Clark’s nutcracker. Our study shows how multiple sources of spatial information may be important for extracting multiple bearings for navigation.     

Retrieval processes for serial order information

Three experiments sought to specify how list structure and rehearsal pattern influence the retrieval of well-learned serial order information. Subjects learned a serial list of 12 words followed by a probed recall task measuring response time. Adjacent list items served as retrieval cues to permit probing of an item by cues which maintained or crossed semantic or rehearsal boundaries. Evidence for structure in serial recall was inferred from the large cue format effects on response time. Such effects were found to be consistent with the semantic relationships in categorized lists and the acquisition rehearsal pattern in unrelated lists. When rehearsal grouping and semantic relatedness were in conflict. the cue format effects conformed mainly to the rehearsal pattern. Extended practice over five sessions did not eliminate these effects for many of the serial items. These results suggest that the structure of the serial list. whether based on previous associations or present rehearsal patterns. can provide a basis for retrieval. A hierarchical search model based on item and order information provided good fits of the data. The model suggested that response time varies with cue formats because cues differ in their efficiency at directing search to the correct response in the list structure. The structure. which is acquired at the time of learning. determines cue efficiency and. hence. the subsequent effects upon response time.     

Head Over the Heart or Heart Over the Head? Cognitive Experiential Self‐Theory and Extralegal Heuristics in Juror Decision Making1

Cognitive experiential self‐theory (CEST), which maintains that information can be processed in both an experiential (emotional) and a rational mode. Experiential processing fosters a reliance on heuristic cues. Previous research has demonstrated that juror verdicts are influenced by a variety of extralegal heuristics, including a defendant attractiveness cue. This research examined whether experiential processing would produce a defendant‐attractiveness/leniency effect. Before awarding monetary damages in a civil trial, participants were motivated to think either rationally or experientially and were shown a photograph of either a high‐ or low‐attractiveness defendant. Experiential mode participants awarded significantly lower damages to the plaintiff when the defendant was attractive, but the attractiveness‐leniency effect was not operative for rational mode participants.     

Stigmatized‐Identity Cues in Consumer Spaces

Consumers with stigmatized identities may be especially attentive to organizational cues that signal to them whether or not they are welcomed and valued consumers. These stigmatized‐identity cues can become a part of a company's brand, influencing the attractiveness of the company and consumer loyalty, and allowing consumers to draw inferences about an organization's ideologies and attitudes toward multiple stigmatized groups. Consumers with stigmatized identities attend to stigmatized‐identity cues that signal inclusion (or exclusion) toward other stigmatized groups, resulting in stigmatized‐identity cue transfers, especially when similarity mindsets are activated, and among consumers who are high in stigma solidarity. Because identity is central in consumer behavior, stigmatized‐identity threat cues can at times result in anti‐consumption, including boycotts, allowing consumers and companies to engage in collective action. This article reviews this growing body of research, demonstrating the important influence of stigmatized‐identity cues on consumer behavior and discussing ways in which companies can better signal their inclusive attitudes and ideologies to attract consumers.     

Focused spatial attention is independent of rapid resumption of an interrupted search

In three experiments, we examined possible relationships between the spatial focus of attention and the rapid resumption of a visual search following a brief interruption. In Experiment 1, we tested the role of involuntary (exogenous) spatial orienting to one region (quadrant) of a search display; in Experiment 2, we tested the role of voluntary (endogenous) spatial orienting to the same region; and in Experiment 3, we tested the role of voluntary orienting to the specific location in which the target item appeared. All three experiments indicated that spatial orienting speeds correct responding and greatly increases the probability of search success in the look immediately following the presentation of a spatial cue. However, these benefits of spatial cues were also shown to be completely independent of the rapid resumption effect, which depends on observers’ forming a perceptual hypothesis about a target in one look, but being unable to confirm that hypothesis until a second one (Lleras, Rensink, & Enns, 2005).     

Can dogs use vocal intonation as a social referencing cue in an object choice task?

Evidence from the literature indicates that dogs’ choices can be influenced by human-delivered social cues, such as pointing, and pointing combined with facial expression, intonation (i.e., rising and falling voice pitch), and/or words. The present study used an object choice task to investigate whether intonation conveys unique information in the absence of other salient cues. We removed facial expression cues and speech information by delivering cues with the experimenter’s back to the dog and by using nonword vocalizations. During each trial, the dog was presented with pairs of the following three vocal cues: Positive (happy-sounding), Negative (sad-sounding), and Breath (neutral control). In Experiment 1, where dogs received only these vocal cue pairings, dogs preferred the Positive intonation, and there was no difference in choice behavior between Negative or Breath. In Experiment 2, we included a point cue with one of the two vocal cues in each pairing. Here, dogs preferred containers receiving pointing cues as well as Negative intonation, and preference was greatest when both of these cues were presented together. Taken together, these findings indicate that dogs can indeed extract information from vocal intonation alone, and may use intonation as a social referencing cue. However, the effect of intonation on behavior appears to be strongly influenced by the presence of pointing, which is known to be a highly salient visual cue for dogs. It is possible that in the presence of a point cue, intonation may shift from informative to instructive.