Studying judgement: Some comments and suggestions for future research

Three general issues emerge from the preceding papers: a confusion between judgement and related activities such as decision making, problem solving, and attitudes; differences in the underlying assumptions about the nature of judgement; and different approaches for testing the adequacy of theories human judgement. The implications of these issues for studying human judgement processes and for future research priorities in this area are briefly discussed.     

Modification of children's gender-stereotyped behavior: General issues and research considerations

This paper reviews some recent studies that have attempted to change gender-stereotyped behavior or attitudes in children. While such efforts have often been successful, at least on a short-term basis, enough inconsistency exists to suggest that more detailed theoretical analyses are required to increase the efficacy of such modification attempts. The review suggested at least four factors that needed additional empirical and theoretical attention as factors in susceptibility to counterstereotyping manipulations. These included: (a) the child's developmental level, (b) the relationship between sex role cognitions and behavior, (c) the degree of situational consistency of gender-stereotyped behavior, and (d) the role of individual initial differences in determining modification outcomes. The importance of these factors are discussed in the context of the existing literature.     

The corroboration time measure: An implicit confidence judgement

The corroboration time technique is introduced as a means of eliciting covert confidence judgements. A validation experiment is reported in which three measures based upon the corroboration time are compared with overt confidence judgements. It is concluded that the technique yields a valid, sensitive measure of confidence which is as sensitive as an overt confidence judgement to variations in the independent variable, and which is less intrusive in use. It may be used whenever there is a unique correct response which can given as feedback for corroboration.     

Wu-Wei: Lao-zi,Zhuang-zi and the aesthetic judgement

The concept of wu-wei (nonaction) has undergone significant changes from Lao-zi to Zhuang-zi. This paper will argue that, while wu-wei in Lao-zi is a utilitarian principle, wu-wei of Zhuan-zi represents an aesthetic world-view. The aesthetic nature of the Daoist nonaction will be illustrated through Kant's concept of 'purposiveness without purpose'.     

Adolescent vicissitudes and medical judgement: a case study

Professional concern about the widespread occurrence of adolescent pregnancy is based upon its negative impact on the social, developmental, and economic prospects of the mother and her infant. The usual presumption is that the pregnant adolescent is in good health but suffers from socioeconomic and cultural disadvantages, which the pregnancy will exacerbate. The problems of the pregnant adolescent are more complex when she also has a severe medical handicap. We draw upon such a case to illuminate the issues which arise when medical problems interact with the vicissitudes of adolescence. Although it is clear that the patient's own behavior contributed substantially to the tragic outcome of this case, we believe that greater professional anticipation of the contingencies of adolescent development might have produced a more favorable result.     

Intelligence differences and conceptual judgement

Summary Studies of gifted children were recently reviewed by Vernon, Adamson, and Vernon (1977). These studies can be said to fall into three main categories, those concerned with the identification and education of such children, e.g., Ogilvie (1970), the psychometrically analysed structure of their abilities, e.g., Guilford (1967) and the factors contributing to success or creativity among those of high IQ, e.g., Terman (1930), Torrance (1969) and Wallach (1970). Few experimental studies have been attempted in this area despite the current interest in the relationship between intelligence and cognitive processes. The experiments reported here are intended to initiate an exploration of the effect of intelligence differences on the conceptual structure of different groups of children. The task selected as a basis for such an investigation was that developed by Collins and Quillian (1969), and taken further by Schaeffer and Wallace (1970). Pairs of words and pairs of pictures chosen from four hierarchically ordered categories were presented to children of average or of high intelligence for comparative classification. Subjects were asked to say whether or not the two items in a pair belonged to the same or different conceptual categories, and to press buttons accordingly. Despite a marked IQ difference, the two groups did not differ in the speed with which they judged picture pairs to be the same or different, but the gifted children were significantly faster in judgements based on presented word pairs. Supplementary studies attempted to determine the source of the interaction in terms of perceptual, motor response, or decision functions.     

Decision Pattern Analysis as a General Framework for Studying Individual Differences in Decision Making

This paper investigated decision pattern analysis (DPA) as a general and standard framework for studying individuals' consistent decision making behavior within and between contexts. DPA classifies decisions on the basis of judgement accuracy and the goal orientation of the decided‐upon action. Over repeated decisions, patterns of individuals' decision behavior are described by five variables: competence, optimality, recklessness, hesitancy and decisiveness. A fictitious medical decision making test and three standard cognitive ability tests (extended with confidence ratings and a ‘submit answer for marking’ decision) were used to investigate the psychometric properties of these DPA variables. Internal consistency of the decision patterns ranged from good to excellent. Convergent validity was assessed via cognitive abilities, metacognitive confidence and a control criterion imposed on confidence that determines the decision to be made: the point of sufficient certainty. Personality variables were included to assess discriminant validity. As hypothesised, cognitive abilities showed positive correlations with competence and optimality. High confidence, low points of sufficient certainty and a greater discrepancy between them were associated with higher decisiveness and recklessness, and lower hesitancy. Personality measures showed mixed and generally weak correlations with the DPA variables. These convergent and discriminant results also held after controlling for all variables in regression. The results provide preliminary psychometric support for DPA as a general framework of behavioral decision making. DPA has the potential to be exploited in many contexts for uses that, to date, have been unachievable in a psychometrically valid manner. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Associations Between Self-Esteem,General Self-Efficacy,and Approaches to Studying in Occupational Therapy Students: A Cross-Sectional Study

The aim of this study was to explore associations between self-esteem, general self-efficacy, and the deep, strategic, and surface approaches to studying. Norwegian occupational therapy students (n?=?125) completed questionnaires measuring study approaches, self-esteem, and general self-efficacy. Regression analyses were used to explore the direct relationships between self-esteem, general self-efficacy and the approaches to studying, after controlling for age, gender, prior higher education, and time spent on independent studying. General self-efficacy displayed positive associations with deep and strategic approaches to studying and a negative relationship with a surface approach to studying. Self-esteem was not significantly associated with approaches to studying.     

Statistical judgement: A further test of the representativeness construct

Kahneman and Tversky's (1972) construct of ‘representativeness’ as a mediator of statistical judgements has been subjected to several recent criticisms. The present study allows test of the hypothesis that individuals differ in their use of the representativeness heuristic. Tasks are devised which permit measure of two types of judgemental error attributed to use of the heuristic. One is a misperception of Bernouilli sequences, in which subjects expect sequences to have shorter run lengths than would actually occur by chance. The other error is a tendency to give insufficient weighting to the evidence of larger samples. The tasks were administered in two experiments by on-line computer. Characteristic errors of both sorts are found in two experiments, but in neither case was there any evidence of a correlation between them. It appears, then, that even a modified form of the representativeness hypothesis, that might be reconciled with other critiques, is lacking in empirical support.     

Structural equation modelling of human judgement

Structural equation modelling (SEM) is outlined and compared with two non-linear alternatives, artificial neural networks and “fast and frugal” models. One particular non-linear decision-making situation is discussed, that exemplified by a lexicographic semi-order. We illustrate the use of SEM on a dataset derived from 539 volunteers' responses to questions about food-related risks. Our conclusion is that SEM is a useful member of the armoury of techniques available to the student of human judgement: it subsumes several multivariate statistical techniques and permits their flexible combination, and it provides robust goodness-of-fit statistics and is available in (generally) easy-to-use computer packages. Although the number of tasks for which SEM provides a persuasive psychological model is small, it is very useful in identifying the important variables and their inter-relations that contribute to task performance, and thus can constitute a valuable intermediate staging point between raw data and a fully fledged psychological theory.     

Neural temporal dynamics of contingency judgement

The present study captures the dynamics of neural processing across positively contingent, negatively contingent, and noncontingent relations. In the setting of a hypothetical chat room conversation, participants rated the contingency of emotional response between two individuals. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were time-locked to the onset of each emotional event. Although each event alone was ambiguous regarding contingency, its neural response was characteristic of the overall contingent relation and the subsequent contingency rating. Very early displays of contingency modified the ERP anterior N1 (AN1) component amplitude. In contrast, the ERP selection negativity (SN) component amplitude seemed to be more sensitive to display properties than contingency. Our results point to the recruitment of early attentional processes for contingency judgement and highlight the efficiency of statistical information processing.     

Religion and the judgement of obsessionality

Abstract

Ninety-six lay participiants read case vignettes of two OCD sufferers, one high on religious activity and one low on religious activity. Possible confounding factors were balanced. Obsessionality and psychological symptoms were seen as significantly more likely in the OCD sufferer with a high level of religious activity, compared to the OCD sufferer with a low level of religious activity, though sadness and tension were not. Limitations of the study are discussed, as are possible interpretations of the findings.     

Improving judgement with prepaid expert advice

Decision makers (“Judges”) often make decisions after obtaining advice from an Advisor. The two parties often share a psychological “contract” about what each contributes in expertise to the decision and receives in monetary outcomes from it. In a laboratory experiment, we varied Advisor Experitise and the opportunity for monetary rewards. As expected, these manipulations influenced advice quality, advice taking, and Judge post‐advice decision quality. The main contribution of the study, however, was the manipulation of the timing of monetary rewards (before or after the advising interaction). We found, as predicted, that committing money for expert—but not novice—advice increases Judges' use of advice and their subsequent estimation accuracy. Implications for advice giving and taking are discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.