Interpretational factors in conditional reasoning

Two experiments examined the role of necessity and sufficiency relationships in conditional reasoning. The results indicated that perceived necessity and sufficiency predicted variability in reasoning performance for four pragmatic relations (permission, obligation, causation, and definition), for both determinant and indeterminant syntactic forms, and for both a conditional arguments and a truth table evaluation task, as well as when the temporal relationship between the antecedent and consequent events was reversed. These data support the general utility of perceived necessity and sufficiency in the interpretation and evaluation of conditional relationships. However, the effects of necessity and sufficiency were smaller for reversed than for forward statements, which suggests that necessity/sufficiency-based interpretations may be more useful for evaluating some types of conditional relations than others. In addition, people were more likely to accept valid rather than invalid arguments, regardless of necessity/sufficiency relations, a finding that suggests that abstract, content-free representations may play a functional role in conditional reasoning.     

A successive-conditionalization approach to disjunctive and syllogistic reasoning

With p and q each standing for a familiar event, a disjunctive statement, “either p or q”, seems quite different from its material conditional, “if not p then q”. The notions of sufficiency and necessity seem specific to conditional statements. It is surprising, however, to find that perceived sufficiency and necessity affect disjunctive reasoning in the way they affect conditional reasoning. With B and C each standing for a category name, a universal statement, “all B are C”, seems stronger than its logically equivalent conditional statement, “if B then C”. However, the effects of perceived sufficiency or necessity were found to be as pronounced in conditional reasoning as in syllogistic reasoning. Furthermore, two experiments also showed that (a) MP (modus ponens)-comparable disjunctive reasoning was as difficult as MT (modus tollens)-comparable disjunctive reasoning, and that (b) MT-comparable syllogisms were easier to solve than MT problems in conditional reasoning.     

The effect of emotion on interpretation and logic in a conditional reasoning task

The effect of emotional content on logical reasoning is explored in three experiments. Theparticipants completed a conditional reasoning task (If p, then q) with emotional and neutral contents. In Experiment 1, existing emotional and neutral words were used. The emotional value of initially neutral words was experimentally manipulated in Experiments 1B and 2, using classical conditioning. In all experiments, participants were less likely to provide normatively correct answers when reasoning about emotional stimuli, compared with neutral stimuli. This was true for both negative (Experiments 1B and 2) and positive contents (Experiment 2). The participants' interpretations of the conditional statements were also measured (perceived sufficiency, necessity, causality, and plausibility). The results showed the expected relationship between interpretation and reasoning. However, emotion did not affect interpretation. Emotional and neutral conditional statements were interpreted similarly. The results are discussed in light of current models of emotion and reasoning.     

Conditional probability and pragmatic conditionals: Dissociating truth and effectiveness

Recent research (e.g., Evans & Over, 2004 Over, D. E., Manktelow, K. I. and Hadjichristidis, C. 2004. Conditions for the acceptance of deontic conditionals. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology, 58: 111–120.  [Google Scholar]) has provided support for the hypothesis that people evaluate the probability of conditional statements of the form if p then q as the conditional probability of q given p, P(q/p). The present paper extends this approach to pragmatic conditionals in the form of inducements (i.e., promises and threats) and advice (i.e., tips and warnings). In so doing, we demonstrate a distinction between the truth status of these conditionals and their effectiveness as speech acts. Specifically, while probability judgements of the truth of conditional inducements and advice are highly correlated with estimates of P(q/p), their perceived effectiveness in changing behaviour instead varies as a function of the conditional probability of q given not-p, P(q/～p). Finally, we show that the conditional probability approach can be extended to predicting inference rates on a conditional reasoning task.     

Conditional reasoning with causal premises: Evidence for a retrieval model

This study examined the hypothesis that a key process in conditional reasoning with concrete premises involves on-line retrieval of information about potential alternate antecedents. Participants were asked to solve reasoning problems with causal conditional premises (If cause P then effect Q). These premises were inserted into short contexts. The availability of potential alternatives was varied from one context to another by adding statements that explicitly invalidated one or more of these alternatives (i.e., other causes that lead to the effect (Q). The invalidated alternatives differed in the degree of their semantic association to the consequent term (Q). The results show that the effect of invalidating one or more potential alternatives on the two uncertain logical forms, AC and DA, was largely determined by their relative associative strength. These results strongly support a model for conditional reasoning with causal premises that supposes that a key element in responding to the uncertain logical forms is on-line retrieval of at least one potential alternative antecedent.     

Inducements: On the phrasing and logic of conditional promises,threats, and warnings

Summary This study examines the purposive-causal use of IF in inducements (conditional threats and promises). It is shown that subjects are sensitive to the relations obtaining among conditional threats and promises phrased in IF, AND, and OR, and to the inferences that may be drawn from conditional threats and promises. It is demonstrated that the relation between conditionals and disjunctives and between IF NOT and UNLESS statements is affected by the sign of the consequences, i.e., whether a threat or promise is involved, and that subjects are very prone in the context of inducements to accept the obverse of a proposition as following from it, thus committing the fallacy of the negated antecedent. An analysis is provided seeking to account for these effects in terms of pragmatic factors involved in the conversational use of the conditional in inducements.This study was supported in part by U.S. Public Health Service Grant 10006 from the National Institute of Mental Health.     

Causal and noncausal conditionals: An integrated model of interpretation and reasoning

We present an integrated model for the understanding of and the reasoning from conditional statements. Central assumptions from several approaches are integrated into a causal path model. According to the model, the cognitive availability of exceptions to a conditional reduces the subjective conditional probability of the consequent, given the antecedent. This conditional probability determines people's degree of belief in the conditional, which in turn affects their willingness to accept logically valid inferences. In addition to this indirect pathway, the model contains a direct pathway: Availability of exceptional situations directly reduces the endorsement of valid inferences. We tested the integrated model with three experiments using conditional statements embedded in pseudonaturalistic cover stories. An explicitly mentioned causal link between antecedent and consequent was either present (causal conditionals) or absent (arbitrary conditionals). The model was supported for the causal but not for the arbitrary conditional statements.     

Conditional reasoning and causation

An experiment was conducted to investigate the relative contributions of syntactic form and content to conditional reasoning. The content domain chosen was that of causation. Conditional statements that described causal relationships (if mean value of cause, then mean value of effect) were embedded in simple arguments whose entailments are governed by the rules of truth-functional logic (i.e., modus ponens, modus tollens, denying the antecedent, and affirming the consequent). The causal statements differed in terms of the number of alternative causes and disabling conditions that characterized the causal relationship. (A disabling condition is an event that prevents an effect from occurring even though a relevant cause is present). Subjects were required to judge whether or not each argument's conclusion could be accepted. Judgements were found to vary systematically with the number of alternative causes and disabling conditions. Conclusions of arguments based on conditionals with few alternative causes or disabling conditions were found to be more acceptable than conclusions based on those with many.     

充分条件句语义关系知觉对条件推理的影响

作者通过实验考察了大学生被试对五种充分条件句语义关系知觉对其条件推理的影响。两个实验的结果表明,被试对条件句中前后件之间语义关系的知觉理解影响和调节其相应的条件推理的成绩。实验1新发现,被试对充分条件句后件对前件必要性的知觉理解存在难易差异,对许可句和定义句的后件必要性容易知觉,对偶然句、义务句和因果句的后件必要性难以知觉。实验2新发现,被试对充分条件句后件对前件必要性的知觉理解的难易差异导致被试在否定后件式推理成绩上的差异,对许可句和定义句的否定后件式推理成绩显著高于对偶然句、义务句和因果句的否定后件式推理成绩,对充分条件句否定后件式推理成绩随对后件必要性知觉增加而增加。     

Counterfactual potency

Counterfactual thoughts typically take the form of implied or explicit if-then statements. We propose that the multiplicative combination of "if likelihood" (the degree to which the antecedent condition of the counterfactual is perceived to be likely) and "then likelihood" (the perceived conditional likelihood of the outcome of the counterfactual, given the antecedent condition) determine the strength and impact of counterfactuals. This construct, termed counterfactual potency, is a reliable predictor of the degree of influence of counterfactual thinking upon judgments of regret, causation, and responsibility. Through 4 studies, we demonstrate the predictive power of this construct in a variety of contexts and show that it plays a causal role in determining the strength of the effects of counterfactual thought. Implications of counterfactual potency as a central factor of counterfactual influence are discussed.     

Reasoning counterfactually: making inferences about things that didn't happen

The authors investigated the relationship between reasoners' understanding of subjunctive conditionals (e.g., if p had happened, then q would have happened) and the inferences they were prepared to endorse. Reasoners who made a counterfactual interpretation of subjunctive statements (i.e., they judged the statement to imply that p and q did not happen) endorsed different inferences than those who did not. Those who made a counterfactual interpretation were more likely to (a) judge the situation in which p and q occurred to be inconsistent with the conditional statement and (b) make negative inferences such as modus tollens (i.e., approximately q therefore approximately p). These findings occurred with familiar and unfamiliar content, affirmative and negative conditionals, and conditional and biconditional relations.     

On the nature of mental models of conditional: The case of If,If then,and Only if

It has recently been reported that forward inferences from if p then q sentences (i.e., from antecedent to consequent) were faster than backward inferences from consequent to antecedent (Barrouillet, Grosset, & Lecas, 2000). The standard mental model theory assumes that this directionality effect is a figural effect due to the order the information enters working memory, whereas we claim that it results from the nature of the mental models that represent oriented relations from hypothetical values introduced by the word If. We tested these hypotheses in an experiment in which adult participants evaluated conditional syllogisms from either if p then q, p only if q, or p if q statements. Contrary to the predictions resulting from the standard theory, the three forms of the conditional provoked a reversed directionality effect and denial inferences took longer to endorse than affirmative inferences for all the forms of conditionals. We argue from these results that mental models of the conditional represent oriented relations instead of mere co-occurrences between events.     

Increasing mentally retarded adolescents' verbalizations about current events

The effects of antecedent and consequent events on the verbal behavior of three institutionalized mentally retarded adolescents were examined. Verbal statements, related to current national and international events, were recorded after exposures to television news programs. The study examined the accuracy of verbalizations as a function of: (1) exposures to television news presentations in massed (i.e., viewing the entire news program before an opportunity to describe it) versus distributed from (i.e., viewing each news item separately with each followed by an opportunity to describe it), and (2) contingent tokens and social praise for correct verbal responses (i.e., statements corresponding to news items presented). Both the temporal distribution of news presentations and the reinforcement procedures improved the accuracy of verbal statements emitted by the subjects.     

Necessity and sufficiency in abstract conditional reasoning

The necessity and sufficiency of the cause relates to the conclusions people draw on everyday conditional inference problems. The current research explores the effects of necessity and sufficiency in an abstract causal context. Three experiments showed that the subjective ratings of necessity and sufficiency diverge from the objective levels: A sufficient and necessary cause is more often labelled as sufficient than a sufficient and not-necessary cause. Likewise, a necessary and sufficient cause is more often labelled necessary than a necessary and not-sufficient cause. In Experiments 1 and 2 we observed that the robust effects of sufficiency on MP and MT, and of necessity on AC and DA found on everyday reasoning generalise to abstract conditionals. There were also partial effects of sufficiency on AC and DA, and of necessity on MP and MT. When the problem presentation is simplified, as in Experiment 3, these partial effects on reasoning disappear. The reasoning results then relate to the objective levels and less to the subjective levels of necessity and sufficiency. This divergence sheds doubt on the idea that reasoners base their inferences on an active assessment of the necessity and/or sufficiency of the causal relation.     

Longitudinal relations among perceived parental warmth,self-esteem and social behaviours from middle childhood to early adolescence in China: Disentangling between- and within-person associations

Although several studies have addressed the relations between perceived parental warmth and social behaviours, few have distinguished their between- and within-person effects or explored their within-person mediating mechanisms. This study examined the transactional relations among perceived parental warmth (i.e. maternal warmth and paternal warmth), children's self-esteem and children's positive/negative social behaviours (i.e. prosocial behaviour and delinquent behaviour) along with the mediating role of self-esteem after disentangling between- and within-person effects. A total of 4315 Chinese elementary children (44.9% girls; M_age = 9.93 years, SD = 0.73) completed relevant measures on four occasions employing 6-month intervals. Results of random-intercept cross-lagged panel models showed that (a) perceived parental warmth reciprocally and positively predicted prosocial behaviour and self-esteem; (b) perceived paternal warmth reciprocally and negatively predicted delinquent behaviour; (c) self-esteem reciprocally predicted prosocial and delinquent behaviour; (d) perceived maternal warmth reciprocally and positively predicted prosocial behaviour through self-esteem; (e) perceived parental warmth reciprocally and negatively predicted delinquent behaviour through self-esteem; and (f) perceived maternal and paternal warmth differed in their relations with prosocial and delinquent behaviours through self-esteem. These findings illuminated the complicated longitudinal within-person interactions among perceived parental warmth, self-esteem, and social behaviours, the specific mediating mechanism of self-esteem, and the differing results associated with perceived maternal and paternal warmth, all of which yield significant implications for assessments and early interventions aimed to promote positive social behaviour.     

Perceived difficulty,energization, and the magnitude of goal valence

This paper examines the proposition that the mobilization of energy and consequent magnitude of valence of a potential outcome (e.g., goal) is a function of what the individual perceives can and must be done in order to attain or avoid the outcome. An outcome that is difficult to attain or avoid requires a relatively high level of energization and will be relatively attractive, if positive, or unpleasant, if negative. Outcomes that are easy or impossible to attain or avoid require little or no energization and will be relatively low in attractiveness, if positive, or low in unpleasantness, if negative. This formulation was supported by four experiments that demonstrated (a) attractiveness of a goal is a nonmonotonic function of perceived difficulty of attaining it; (b) unpleasantness of a potential negative outcome is a nonmonotonic function of perceived difficulty of avoiding it; (c) the nonmonotonic effect of perceived difficulty on goal attractiveness disappears once instrumental behavior has been completed; and (d) the nonmonotonic effect of perceived difficulty on unpleasantness of a potential negative outcome occurs in immediate but not distant anticipation of initiating instrumental behavior. Alternative explanations, theoretical problems, and implications are discussed.     

Employable,committed, and thus well-performing: a matter of interdependent forward-looking social exchange

This study probes the relationship between perceived external employability (i.e., the individual’s perception of available jobs on the external labour market) and affective commitment and performance within the framework of social exchange. An innovative feature is that we advance perceived external employability as a commodity of interdependent forward-looking exchange: employees who perceive themselves as externally employable anticipate successful exchange, which drives further responses, both relational (i.e., affective organizational commitment) and behavioural (i.e., performance). Strong features of this study are that we include (a) both the organization and the workgroup as foci of affective commitment, and (b) task, helping, and counterproductive behaviour as indicators of performance. Results from cross-lagged, structural equation modelling (SEM) analyses on two-wave survey data (N = 458 Belgian employees) largely align with our idea: perceived external employability has a positive cross-lagged effect on affective organizational and workgroup commitment. The two foci of commitment in turn have a cross-lagged effect on performance, positive in the case of helping behaviour and negative in the case of counterproductive behaviour. No significant cross-lagged effects were found in relation to task behaviour. We discuss these results in the light of Social Exchange Theory and potential routes for future research.     

Painful engagement in deliberate self-harm: The role of conditional goal setting

Conditional goal setting is the tendency for people to see attainment of their future personal goals as necessary for their well-being. It has been argued that this represents an unhealthy way of relating to one’s goals, as well as being particularly problematic when goals are perceived as unlikely. High conditional goal setting has been found to be related to depression and to hopelessness. The present study examined conditional goal setting in deliberate self-harm, where problematic thinking about the future is very prominent. A group of individuals attending hospital for a recent episode of deliberate self-harm (N = 25) were compared with controls attending hospital for minor injuries (N = 25) as well as a psychologically disordered but non-suicidal control group (N = 25). Participants generated goals and rated goal likelihood, the extent to which those goals were seen as necessary for their future well-being (conditional goal setting), and also the extent to which the goals were seen as sufficient for their future well-being (goal sufficiency). Deliberate self-harm patients showed a higher degree of both conditional goal setting and goal sufficiency than did both of the other groups, further confirming the idea of painful engagement with personal goals, rather than disengagement, as characterising deliberate self-harm.     

Causal and conditional inferences: A comment on Cummins (1995)

Cummins (1995) offers an analysis of causal and truthfunctional sufficiency and necessity to predict and explain the effects on conditional inferences of two pragmatic factors: alternative causes and disabling conditions. However, the justification of these predictions is inconsistent. This note offers a modified analysis which puts her predictions on a sounder base: it is proposed that alternative causes and disabling conditions affect judgments of argument validity under three different models for the causal conditional.     

A Sequential Analysis of Clinician Skills and Client Change Statements in a Brief Motivational Intervention for Young Adult Heavy Drinking

This study examined sequential relationships between clinician skills and client statements about behavior change in a randomized clinical trial comparing a brief motivational intervention (BMI) to a relaxation training control condition (REL) in a sample of heavy drinking young adults. Clinician and client interactions (N = 167) were assessed according to two established observational rating systems. Sequential analyses examined the transitional associations between clinicians’ use of MI-eliciting skills (i.e., questions and reflections), MI-supportive skills (e.g., affirmations, emphasize client autonomy, statements of support), MI-inconsistent skills (e.g., confrontations, unsolicited advice), and subsequent client statements about behavior change (i.e., change talk or sustain talk). In both conditions, clinicians’ use of MI-elicitation skills operated in a manner that was largely consistent (100% in BMI; 84% in REL) with the directional relationships proposed by MI theory (i.e., The Technical Hypothesis). More detailed analyses of the BMI condition showed clinician skills were related to statements about behavior change somewhat differently in drinking compared to coping discussions. While elicitations of change talk were associated with increased odds of their intended response (i.e., distal drinking and proximal coping change talk), elicitations of proximal coping sustain talk were associated with higher odds of proximal change talk. MI-supportive skills were also associated with increased odds of proximal change talk, and instances of proximal sustain talk were rare in the sample. This fine-grained analysis presents sequential transitions to client change and sustain talk with greater classification specificity than has been previously reported. Such efforts have the potential to advance our understanding of the function of MI skills in promoting client discussions about drinking (i.e., evoking) and coping (i.e., planning) behavior change.