Instance‐based learning in dynamic decision making

This paper presents a learning theory pertinent to dynamic decision making (DDM) called instancebased learning theory (IBLT). IBLT proposes five learning mechanisms in the context of a decision‐making process: instance‐based knowledge, recognition‐based retrieval, adaptive strategies, necessity‐based choice, and feedback updates. IBLT suggests in DDM people learn with the accumulation and refinement of instances, containing the decision‐making situation, action, and utility of decisions. As decision makers interact with a dynamic task, they recognize a situation according to its similarity to past instances, adapt their judgment strategies from heuristic‐based to instance‐based, and refine the accumulated knowledge according to feedback on the result of their actions. The IBLT's learning mechanisms have been implemented in an ACT‐R cognitive model. Through a series of experiments, this paper shows how the IBLT's learning mechanisms closely approximate the relative trend magnitude and performance of human data. Although the cognitive model is bounded within the context of a dynamic task, the IBLT is a general theory of decision making applicable to other dynamic environments.     

Feedback Delays: How Can Decision Makers Learn Not to Buy a New Car Every Time the Garage Is Empty?

Decision makers in dynamic environments (e.g., stock trading, inventory control, and firefighting) learn poorly in experiments where feedback about the outcomes of their actions is delayed. In searching for ways to mitigate these effects, this paper presents two computational models of learning with feedback delays and contrasts them against human decision-makers' performance. The no-memory model hypothesizes that decision makers always perceive feedback as immediate. The with-memory model hypothesizes that, over time, decision makers are able to develop internal representations of the task that help them to perform with delayed feedback. As borne out by human subjects, both models predict that a display of past history improves learning with delay and that increasing delay increasingly degrades performance. Even though the length of training in this task exceeds that used in many laboratory-based dynamic tasks, neither the two models nor the subjects are able to effectively learn without decision aids when faced with feedback delays. When given an amount of training that more closely approximates that provided in functioning dynamic environments, the with-memory model predicts that human decision makers may learn without decision aids over the long term if feedback delays are simple. These results raise several issues for continued theoretical investigation as well as potential suggestions for training and supporting decision makers in dynamic environments with feedback delays. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.     

Dealing with Dynamic Decision Problems when Knowledge of the Environment Is Limited: An Approach Based on Goal Systems

We experimentally analyzed decision procedures for dealing with a dynamic decision‐making problem in which only qualitative information about the deterministic dynamics of the environment was available to participants. A participant's task was to maximize long‐term profit in a computer‐simulated monopoly market featuring delays and inertia. The design enabled a goal‐system‐based procedure, whereby a participant could select one or several short‐term variables to be controlled (goal variables) and chose target values (aspiration levels) for each of them over a total of 50 periods. We report results based on a sample of 63 participants on the formation of goal systems and the process of aspiration adaptation. Our main findings are, first, that more frequently selecting goal systems that adequately reflect the causal structure of the underlying model is positively correlated with long‐term profit; second, that goal persistence, a measure of a participant's tendency to stick to the current goal system, is positively correlated with long‐term profit; and third, that aspiration levels tend to be adapted in strong agreement with certain basic principles of a benchmark model of aspiration adaptation. Our study thus suggests and provides empirical foundation for an approach to dealing with complex dynamic decision problems based on neither optimization nor learning. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Factors influencing prescribing decisions in the treatment of depression: a social judgement theory approach

The under‐diagnosis and inappropriate treatment of depression in primary care has become a serious public health problem despite the development of many clinical guidelines to guide recognition and treatment of the disorder. This study aims to investigate decision‐making processes and to identify factors which influence general practitioners' (GPs) prescribing decisions and how these factors differ from those the guidelines recommend. Brunswik's lens model, from Social Judgement Theory (SJT), was employed to explore individual treatment decision policies of 40 GPs in the Grampian region of Scotland for 20 case vignettes. These individual policies were then aggregated and compared with those derived from guideline recommendations; important differences emerged between the two in the utilization of cues and there was considerable variation between GPs' policies. Guidelines placed more importance on the duration of symptoms whereas GPs gave weight also to particular symptoms, such as ‘thoughts of suicide’ and ‘sleep disturbance’ and patient treatment preference. GPs prescribed antidepressants at a greater rate than was recommended by the guidelines. The findings have important implications for implementation strategies, which maybe developed to accompany clinical guidelines. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cross-national comparisons of complex problem-solving strategies in two microworlds

Research in the fields of complex problem solving (CPS) and dynamic decision making using microworlds has been mainly conducted in Western industrialized countries. This study analyzes the CPS process by investigating thinking-aloud protocols in five countries. Participants were 511 students from Brazil, Germany, India, the Philippines, and the United States who worked on two microworlds. On the basis of cultural-psychological theories, specific cross-national differences in CPS strategies were hypothesized. Following theories of situatedness of cognition, hypotheses about the specific frequency of problem-solving strategies in the two microworlds were developed. Results of the verbal protocols showed (a) modification of the theoretical CPS model, (b) task dependence of CPS strategies, and (c) cross-national differences in CPS strategies. Participants' CPS processes were particularly influenced by country-specific problem-solving strategies.     

Social Judgement Theory

This paper first explores a number of themes in the psychological system developed by the Austrian-American psychologist, Egon Brunswik, focusing on those that had a formative influence on Social Judgement Theory. We show that while perception was a recurring ground for Brunswik's empirical and theoretical work, his psychology was a psychology of cognition in the broadest sense. Next, two major themes in Social Judgement Theory— functionalism and probabilism— are described, and the elegant formulation known as Brunswik's Lens Model is introduced. Some methodological and theoretical implications of these themes are presented. The paper concludes with Hammond's Cognitive Continuum Theory (CCT), which is a theory describing modes of cognition and how those modes are influenced by task characteristics.     

Investigating naturalistic decision making in a simulated microworld: What questions should we ask?

Computer-simulated microworlds can provide a controlled method for investigating concepts related to naturalistic decision making (NDM). However, the extent to which these tools can be used to generate meaningful outcomes is unknown. The current study used a microworld called Networked Fire Chief (NFC) to explore the range of skills and knowledge acquired as participants gained practice on the program. The complexity of the NFC NDM environment was also explored. Twenty participants each completed 20 equivalent 5-min scenarios on NFC. Interview data, behavioral data and performance scores were collected across the trials. Results confirmed that NFC provides an environment that promotes appropriate perceptual-cognitive processing for NDM. However, performance improved to only a small extent across the 20 trials in four performance areas: speed, accuracy, efficiency and planning. In addition, the number of personal and situational factors to be considered when decision making on NFC was not comparable with real-world NDM environments. Overall, results indicated that the use of microworlds for research should be regulated by an understanding of the limitations of their applicability.     

Decision support for real-time, dynamic decision-making tasks

By definition, dynamic decision making dictates that multiple and interrelated decisions be made in a continuously changing environment. Such decision making is difficult and often taxes individuals’ cognitive resources. Here I investigated ways in which to support decision making in these environments. I evaluated three forms of decision support: outcome feedback, cognitive feedback, and feedforward that incorporated (to varying degrees) common features of learning theories associated with dynamic tasks. Participants in a laboratory experiment performed a real-time, dynamic decision-making task while receiving one of the different types of decision support. During the first 2 days, individuals received one type of decision support, but on the third day they performed the task without this support. Participants who received feedforward improved their performance considerably and continued to exhibit improved performance even after discontinuation of the decision support on the third day. Neither outcome feedback nor cognitive feedback resulted in improved performance. More research is necessary to conclusively identify the best forms of dynamic decision-making support and their durability when transferred to new tasks.     

Ostracism Reduces Reliance on Poor Advice from Others during Decision Making

Decision making is rarely context‐free, and often, both social information and non‐social information are weighed into one's decisions. Incorporating information into a decision can be influenced by previous experiences. Ostracism has extensive effects, including taxing cognitive resources and increasing social monitoring. In decision making situations, individuals are often faced with both objective and social information and must choose which information to include or filter out. How will ostracism affect the reliance on objective and social information during decision making? Participants (N = 245) in Experiment 1 were randomly assigned to be included or ostracized in a standardized, group task. They then performed a dynamic decision making task that involved the presentation of either non‐social (i.e. biased reward feedback) or social (i.e., poor advice from a previous participant) misleading information. In Experiment 2, participants (N = 105) completed either the ostracism non‐social condition or social misleading information condition with explicit instructions stating that the advice given was from an individual who did not partake in the group task. Ostracized individuals relied more on non‐social misleading information and performed worse than included individuals. However, ostracized individuals discounted misleading social information and outperformed included individuals. Results of Experiment 2 replicated the findings of Experiment 1. Across two experiments, ostracized individuals were more critical of advice from others, both individuals who may have ostracized them and unrelated individuals. In other words, compared with included individuals, ostracized individuals underweighted advice from another individual but overweighed non‐social information during decision making. We conclude that when deceptive objective information is present, ostracism results in disadvantageous decision making. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Learning to Avoid the Winner's Curse

The winner's curse is frequently observed in auctions: The person who bids the most and wins the auction may ultimately regret the bid since it often exceeds the value of the object being auctioned. Ball, Bazerman, and Carroll (1991) have shown that repeated experience as a bidder leads to little learning and repeated winner's curses. The current study investigated whether feedback and relevant experience could contribute to bidders learning to avoid the winner's curse in the two tasks that have dominated winners’ curse research. The results showed that experience had little impact and that additional feedback reduced overbidding but never extinguished the winners’ curse; instead, it was pervasive and highly resistant to learning. High endowments and limited feedback, in particular, led to the most extreme curses. The results are discussed with respect to the emotions associated with winning and the emotional bases of risky decision making.     

The problem of delayed causation in a video game: Constant, varied, and filled delays

A first-person shooter video game was adapted for the study of causal decision making within dynamic environments. The video game included groups of three potential targets. Participants chose which of the three targets in each group was producing distal explosions. The actual source of the explosion effect varied in the delay between the firing of its weapon and the effect (from 0 to 2 s), whether these programed average delays were constant or varied from shot to shot, and whether the delays were unfilled or filled with an auditory event. In Experiment 1, participants’ choice accuracy was highest with shorter delays, but there was no effect of filling the delay and some beneficial effect of varying the delay. These results were re-examined in Experiment 2 but with participants experiencing the same average delay for seven subsequent decisions before the next average delay was introduced. In this experiment, men showed a strong and consistent benefit of filling a delay whereas women did not. Participants’ behavior is considered within the context of a model that assumes that choice behavior is driven by experienced contiguity for the target and foils.     

Merging information in speech recognition: feedback is never necessary

Top-down feedback does not benefit speech recognition; on the contrary, it can hinder it. No experimental data imply that feedback loops are required for speech recognition. Feedback is accordingly unnecessary and spoken word recognition is modular. To defend this thesis, we analyse lexical involvement in phonemic decision making. TRACE (McClelland & Elman 1986), a model with feedback from the lexicon to prelexical processes, is unable to account for all the available data on phonemic decision making. The modular Race model (Cutler & Norris 1979) is likewise challenged by some recent results, however. We therefore present a new modular model of phonemic decision making, the Merge model. In Merge, information flows from prelexical processes to the lexicon without feedback. Because phonemic decisions are based on the merging of prelexical and lexical information, Merge correctly predicts lexical involvement in phonemic decisions in both words and nonwords. Computer simulations show how Merge is able to account for the data through a process of competition between lexical hypotheses. We discuss the issue of feedback in other areas of language processing and conclude that modular models are particularly well suited to the problems and constraints of speech recognition.     

Teaching Ethical Decision Making: Helping Students Reconcile Personal and Professional Values

Because conflicts between personal and professional values can interfere with ethical decision making, a goal of counselor education must be helping students reconcile such conflicts. This article describes one counselor educator's experience teaching ethical decision making and the effects on student learning. Growth was observed in increased tolerance for ambiguity, awareness of how values influenced decision making, use of multiple factors in decision making, and emphasis on the welfare of clients. Implications for teaching and future research directions are discussed.     

“先扬后抑”vs.“先抑后扬”:反馈顺序对决策信心建构的影响

本研究采用2×3被试内设计,通过操纵不同性质信息的反馈比例和反馈顺序,重点考察了反馈顺序对决策信心动态建构的影响。结果表明:(1)在不同反馈比例条件下,当个体接收到的正性反馈多于负性反馈时,个体的决策信心上升,反之则下降;当个体接收到的正性反馈等于负性反馈时,个体的决策信心下降,表现出"负性偏向";(2)"先扬后抑"与"先抑后扬"的信息反馈顺序对决策信心的动态建构产生了不同影响,表现出类似于"近因效应"的现象,"惊讶假设(surprise hypothesis)"可为此提供解释。本研究表明,在决策信心的动态建构过程中,信息的反馈顺序发挥着重要作用。     

Effects of Feedback Complexity on Dynamic Decision Making

Prior research shows people suffer from misperceptions of feedback, generating systematic dysfunctional behavior in the presence of dynamic complexity - settings with multiple feedback loops, time delays, and nonlinearities. However, prior work has not adequately mapped the effect of these elements of complexity on performance. We report an experiment where subjects managed an inventory in the face of stochastic sales, a classic dynamic decision task. We vary the time delays and strength of the feedback loops to explore the impact of these elements of dynamic complexity on behavior. Subjects faced financial incentives and had opportunities to learn. Yet performance was significantly worse than optimal across all conditions. Subjects outperformed a naive "do-nothing" rule in the simple conditions, but performance deteriorated dramatically with increasing time delays and feedback effects, and most were outperformed by the do-nothing rule in the complex conditions. Regression analysis of subjects′ decisions showed most ignored the supply line of pending production and undercontrolled the system. Undercontrol increased significantly with growing time delays and feedback strength, showing subjects were insufficiently adaptive despite perfect knowledge of system structure and parameters. Subjects′ understanding of complex feedback settings declines as delays between cause and effect increase and as actions have stronger side effects. Few indications were found of active experimentation or learning: the need to control seemed to override the ability to learn.     

Inferring Learners' Knowledge From Their Actions

Watching another person take actions to complete a goal and making inferences about that person's knowledge is a relatively natural task for people. This ability can be especially important in educational settings, where the inferences can be used for assessment, diagnosing misconceptions, and providing informative feedback. In this paper, we develop a general framework for automatically making such inferences based on observed actions; this framework is particularly relevant for inferring student knowledge in educational games and other interactive virtual environments. Our approach relies on modeling action planning: We formalize the problem as a Markov decision process in which one must choose what actions to take to complete a goal, where choices will be dependent on one's beliefs about how actions affect the environment. We use a variation of inverse reinforcement learning to infer these beliefs. Through two lab experiments, we show that this model can recover people's beliefs in a simple environment, with accuracy comparable to that of human observers. We then demonstrate that the model can be used to provide real‐time feedback and to model data from an existing educational game.     

Social decision making mediates the association between anger and externalising problems in Chinese adolescents

The goal of this study was to test the mediating effect of social decision making in the relations of anger and anger control to externalising and internalising problems. A sample of 174 Chinese adolescents (mean age = 15.36 years) completed self‐reports of trait anger, anger control, externalising problems, internalising problems and social decision making, which was operationalized as situational judgement reflecting an individual's ability to interact effectively with parents, teachers and peers. Findings indicated that adolescents' trait anger and anger control were positively related to both externalising and internalising problems. In addition, path analysis revealed that social decision making mediated the relationship between trait anger, anger control and externalising problems. Findings on the mediating effect will be discussed by referencing appraisal tendency theory and response evaluation and decision.     

Parental rearing behavior prospectively predicts adolescents’ risky decision‐making and feedback‐related electrical brain activity

The present study examined the role of parental rearing behavior in adolescents’ risky decision‐making and the brain's feedback processing mechanisms. Healthy adolescent participants (n = 110) completed the EMBU‐C, a self‐report questionnaire on perceived parental rearing behaviors between 2006 and 2008 (T1). Subsequently, after an average of 3.5 years, we assessed (a) risky decision‐making during performance of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART); (b) event‐related brain potentials (ERPs) elicited by positive (gain) and negative feedback (loss) during the BART; and (c) self‐reported substance use behavior (T2). Age‐corrected regression analyses showed that parental rejection at T1 accounted for a unique and significant proportion of the variance in risk‐taking during the BART; the more adolescents perceived their parents as rejecting, the more risky decisions were made. Higher levels of perceived emotional warmth predicted increased P300 amplitudes in response to positive feedback at T2. Moreover, these larger P300 amplitudes (gain) significantly predicted risky decision‐making during the BART. Parental rearing behaviors during childhood thus seem to be significant predictors of both behavioral and electrophysiological indices of risky decision‐making in adolescence several years later. This is in keeping with the notion that environmental factors such as parental rearing are important in explaining adolescents’ risk‐taking propensities.