模糊决策的情境依赖性

实验1采用艾尔斯伯格悖论的研究范式,探究被试对模糊的厌恶倾向以及在决策过程中所采用的决策策略。结果发现：被试对确定选项和模糊选项的选择存在差异;在肯定形式下倾向于确定选项,而在否定形式下则倾向于模糊选项,采用了利益最大化策略。实验2采用艾尔斯伯格悖论的变式,通过操纵概率和任务类型,发现：模糊决策具有情境依赖性,并非任何情况下个体都厌恶模糊。当风险选项不能满足自己的需要,即获胜机率比较小时,人们会偏向模糊选项。     

行为决策中模糊规避研究的回顾与展望

模糊规避是指在相同奖赏的情况下,决策者会偏好有精确概率的事件而不是从主观上判断具有相同模糊概率的事件。自从Ellsberg提出模糊规避的概念以来,模糊规避已在行为决策研究的多个领域得到广泛验证。本文梳理了近五十年来关于模糊规避的研究文献,系统分析了模糊规避的研究范式、心理机制和影响因素,同时提出了未来的研究展望。     

Exploring cooperation and competition in the Centipede game through verbal protocol analysis

The Centipede game is an abstract model of reciprocal relationships in which two individuals alternate in helping each other at relatively small personal cost. Whereas mutual cooperation can benefit both individuals in the long run, a paradoxical but logically compelling backward induction argument suggests that cooperation is irrational. Empirical studies have reported reliable deviations from the non‐cooperative backward induction solution, but their exclusively quantitative methods allow only a limited range of predefined motives to be explored. Our study uses verbal (‘think aloud’) protocols and qualitative data analysis to identify motives for cooperation in the Centipede game. The results provide little evidence for sophisticated backward induction reasoning. Instead, a wide range of motives emerged, their relative saliences varying according to the stage of the game. Activity bias affected decisions mainly at the beginning of the game, whereas cooperative and altruistic social value orientations most frequently accounted for cooperation towards its natural end.     

The role of memory for compounds in cue competition

Revisions of common associative learning models incorporate a within-compound association mechanism in order to explain retrospective cue competition effects (e.g., [Dickinson, A., & Burke, J. (1996). Within-compound associations mediate the retrospective revaluation of causality judgements. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 49B, pp. 60-80.]). These models predict a correlation between memory for compounds (as a measure for the strength of within-compound associations) and retrospective cue competition but not forward cue competition. This was indeed found in a study of [Melchers, K. G., Lachnit, H., & Shanks, D. (2004). Within-compound associations in retrospective revaluation and in direct learning: A challenge for comparator theory. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 57B, pp. 25-54.]. We argue that a higher-order reasoning account of causal learning can also explain the evidence for the role of within-compound associations in cue competition. Moreover, this account predicts that if making inferences during the learning stage is impeded, a correlation between memory for compounds and forward cue competition should be found as well. The results of a new study confirmed this prediction.     

On the role of preference in response competition

A duration-based preference assessment identified items that matched and did not match the sensory consequences hypothesized to maintain stereotypy. When evaluated in treatment, these items effectively competed with the occurrence of stereotypy, regardless of their sensory properties. It is suggested that relative preference, as measured in duration-based assessment, can be as significant as type of stimulation produced in interventions that reduce automatically reinforced problem behavior.     

Ambiguity attitudes in qualitative contexts: The role of prior beliefs

Most studies of ambiguity aversion rely on experimental paradigms involving monetary bets. Thus, the extent to which ambiguity aversion occurs outside of such contexts is much less understood, particularly when the situation cannot easily be reduced to numerical terms. The present work seeks to understand whether people prefer to avoid ambiguous decisions in a variety of different qualitative domains (e.g., work, family, love, friendship, exercise, study, and health), and, if so, to determine the role played by prior beliefs in those domains. Across three studies, we presented participants with 24 vignettes and measured the degree to which they preferred risk to ambiguity in each. We also asked them for their prior probability estimates about the likely outcomes in the ambiguous events. Ambiguity aversion was observed in the vast majority of vignettes, but at different magnitudes. It was predicted by whether the vignette involved gain or loss as well as by people's prior beliefs; however, the heterogeneity between people meant that the role of prior beliefs was only evident in an individual-level analysis (i.e., not at the group level). Our results suggest that the desire to avoid ambiguity occurs in a wide variety of qualitative contexts but to different degrees for different people and may be partially driven by unfavorable prior estimates of the likely outcomes of the ambiguous events.     

Hormonal changes after competition predict sex‐differentiated decision‐making

Recent neuroendocrinology research has pointed out that testosterone (T) and cortisol (C) changes after social interactions can predict risk‐taking behavior in decision‐making, depending on the sex of participants. However, previous research has focused on the effects of the changes in only one hormone, rather than the interaction between them, even though C can suppress T activity. Our aim was to test, in men and women, the role of T changes moderated by C changes after competition in decision‐making. Thus, 48 males and 46 females completed the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) after a laboratory competition or a noncompetitive task (control task). Saliva samples were collected before and after the competition/control task. IGT was employed to measure risk‐taking decision‐making, considering the degree of uncertainty. Our results showed sex‐differentiated effects of T and C changes on risk‐taking behavior. On the one hand, men from both task groups (Competition/Control) who had higher C and T changes after competition showed more risk‐taking decision‐making (higher IG Risk). On the other hand, women from the competitive task who had high C and T showed conservative decision‐making. Therefore, these results show sex‐differentiated decision‐making profiles, which would help to understand how men and women behave after experiencing a competitive social context.     

Quantum mechanics and violations of the sure-thing principle: The use of probability interference and other concepts

The use of quantum mechanical concepts in social science is a fairly new phenomenon. This paper uses one of quantum mechanics’ most basic concepts, probability interference, to explain the violation of an important decision theory principle (the ‘sure-thing principle’). We also attempt to introduce other quantum mechanical concepts in relation to the sure-thing principle violation.     

Repetition effects on word fragment completion: The role of competition among responses

Four experiments examined the effect of spaced repetition of study words on completion of word fragments with only one solution and word fragments with multiple solutions. Recognition was used as test of explicit memory in the first two experiments. The study words were presented either once or three times. Repetition was found to increase recognition memory substantially, and to affect fragment completion performance only marginally. This was true for both single- and multiple-solution fragments, showing that competition among responses is not critical for the magnitude of the repetition effect in fragment completion. This finding, that the repetition effect is marginal also when the type of cues provides an occasion for repetition effects to show up, suggests that the real effect of repetition on perceptual priming is borderline. It is proposed that memory from the first presentation eliminates necessary processing of items when they are re-exposed, and that the repetition effect thereby is reduced.     

Uncertainty and prejudice: The role of religiosity in shaping group attitudes

Past research indicates that being religious is frequently motivated by the need to avoid uncertainty and associated with prejudice against value‐violating groups. The present research clarifies these previous findings and shows for the first time a causal link between a sense of uncertainty and group attitudes through religiosity and the perception of the target group's mindset. Study 1 demonstrates that belief in God is associated with uncertainty avoidance and increases prejudice against value‐violating groups, but simultaneously increases positive attitudes towards value‐consistent groups. Study 2 demonstrates experimentally that a sense of uncertainty shapes intergroup attitudes when the relationship is mediated through the belief in God and the perception that a target group actually violated perceivers' values. The results corroborate and broaden previous findings on religiosity, ambiguity avoidance, and prejudice and, for the first time, show a causal link between a sense of uncertainty and attitudes towards value‐violating and value‐consistent groups.     

Interpersonal relations: Cooperation and competition

Social relations between two persons require that consequences each receives depend at least in part on the responses of the other. Historically, research in several areas has focused on two contingencies, cooperation and competition, in which reinforcement is determined by the responses of both participants. A major research question in social psychology and applied behavior analysis has been: Which contingency is more effective with regard to the quantity or quality of some response? Although this question has not been addressed in the experimental analysis of behavior, this area provides a perspective and method to more fully investigate the relevant controlling variables. Among these are the frequency of opportunities to audit the performances of others, information (or lack of it) provided by social or nonsocial stimuli with regard to reinforcement and performance, degree of face-to-face interaction, types of reinforcement contingencies, and number of participants. A neglected dependent variable is cost effectiveness — amount of behavior maintained by a given reinforcer amount. The larger agenda for the experimental analysis of interpersonal relations includes a variety of forms of reinforcement interdependence that raise issues of basic and applied interest.     

Self‐control in a Prisoner's Dilemma game: the role of trial spacing and an interfering task

Self‐control was studied in an iterated one‐player Prisoner's Dilemma game in which students' choices affected the payoff matrix on the next trial. The frequency of self‐control responses (choice of the smaller payoff now, but with the more generous payoff matrix more likely on the next trial) and defection responses (choice of the larger payoff now, but with the less generous payoff matrix more likely on the next trial) were measured. In Experiment 1, players achieved a criterion of five consecutive self‐control responses more quickly as a positive function of trial spacing, the presence between trials of a discriminative stimulus associated with the upcoming payoff matrix, and the probability that the self‐control or defection response would be reciprocated by the computer. Experiment 2 replicated the effect of trial spacing except when there was an interfering task during the interval, suggesting that trial spacing permits better appreciation of the contingencies. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Public good provision in inter‐team conflicts: Effects of asymmetry and profit‐sharing rule

A fundamental problem in organizations is designing mechanisms for eliciting voluntary contributions from individual members of a team who are entrapped in a social dilemma. To solve the problem, we utilize a game‐theoretical framework that embeds the traditional within‐team social dilemma in a between‐team competition for an exogenously determined prize. In equilibrium, such competition enhances the incentive to contribute, thereby reducing free‐riding. Extending existing literature, we focus on asymmetric competitions between teams of unequal size, and competitions between more than two teams. Comparing two protocols for sharing the prize—egalitarian and proportional profit‐sharing rules—we find that (i) free‐riding diminishes and (ii) team members contribute more toward their team's effort when they belong to the larger team and when the profit‐sharing rule is proportional. (iii) Additionally, under the egalitarian profit‐sharing rule team members contribute more than predicted by the equilibrium solution. We discuss implications of our findings for eliciting contributions in competitive environments. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The semantic nature of response competition in the picture-word interference task

Picture-word interference refers to the fact that when a picture (i.e., line drawing) is presented with a word superimposed, picture naming latency is longer than when the picture is presented alone. In addition, naming latency will be further prolonged whenever the word and the picture are members of the same semantic category. This semantic interference effect was investigated in a series of studies in order to develop an appropriate model of the semantic processes involved in picture-word interference. In Experiments 1 and 2, it was determined that the associative strength between the word and the picture is unimportant in the picture-word interference task. In Experiment 3, it was demonstrated that the category typicality of the word and the picture is also unimportant in this task. These results suggest that the semantic processes in picture-word interference would not be well described by a semantic network model. This conclusion was reinforced by Experiment 4, in which it was found that the imageability of a word is a highly important factor in the picture-word interference task. The present set of results suggests that any model of the processes involved in picture-word interference must have at its core the notion of the word’s "relevance" to the task of naming the presented picture.     

Lay Personality Theories in Interactive Decisions: Strongly Held,Weakly Supported

In interactive decisions, cues to what others will do are important in forming a strategy. Information about others' personalities appears to be potentially valuable for this purpose. We report a series of four studies examining how information about another actor's personality influences people's own choices in interactive decisions. The studies found widespread beliefs that others' personality characteristics are strongly predictive both of broad classes of decision behavior (competition/cooperation, risk‐seeking/risk‐aversion) (Study 1) and of specific choices (Study 2) in single‐agent settings. These beliefs extended to predicting others' choices in interactive decisions (Study 3) and to shaping the predictor's own decisions in interactive play in Chicken and Assurance games (Study 4). Overall, we found extensive evidence that laypeople believe that the personality traits we selected (angry‐hostility, anxiety, assertiveness, excitement‐seeking, and warmth) have substantial effects on behavior in interactive decisions and they act on those beliefs when making their own decisions. The empirical evidence supporting the predictive validity of these traits was, however, quite weak. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The co-occurrence of multisensory competition and facilitation

Previous studies of multisensory integration have often stressed the beneficial effects that may arise when information concerning an event arrives via different sensory modalities at the same time, as, for example, exemplified by research on the redundant target effect (RTE). By contrast, studies of the Colavita visual dominance effect (e.g., [Colavita, F. B. (1974). Human sensory dominance. Perception & Psychophysics, 16, 409–412]) highlight the inhibitory consequences of the competition between signals presented simultaneously in different sensory modalities instead. Although both the RTE and the Colavita effect are thought to occur at early sensory levels and the stimulus conditions under which they are typically observed are very similar, the interplay between these two opposing behavioural phenomena (facilitation vs. competition) has yet to be addressed empirically. We hypothesized that the dissociation may reflect two of the fundamentally different ways in which humans can perceive concurrent auditory and visual stimuli. In Experiment 1, we demonstrated both multisensory facilitation (RTE) and the Colavita visual dominance effect using exactly the same audiovisual displays, by simply changing the task from a speeded detection task to a speeded modality discrimination task. Meanwhile, in Experiment 2, the participants exhibited multisensory facilitation when responding to visual targets and multisensory inhibition when responding to auditory targets while keeping the task constant. These results therefore indicate that both multisensory facilitation and inhibition can be demonstrated in reaction to the same bimodal event.     

合作与竞争人格倾向测量

该研究从人格的角度,采取定性与定量两种分析手段,对合作与竞争人格倾向进行了深入探讨,并编制了测量个体合作与竞争人格倾向的量表。研究者首先在深度访谈的基础上,编制合作与竞争人格倾向测量量表并进行指标验证。探索性因素分析发现,合作与竞争倾向是两个独立的维度,并分别包含三个子因子,构成合作与竞争倾向的二维度三因子模型。研究者随后对模型的验证性分析以及多重效度检验,结果显示量表的信效度与结构模型的拟合指标均达到可接受的标准     

博弈论视角下的超扫描多人互动任务新模型

超扫描指同时记录多个被试脑活动, 以探索其社会互动脑机制的研究手段。从博弈论视角, 可区分超扫描任务中的冲突、合作与协作三类任务, 分离已有研究中未严格界定的“协作”与“合作”概念, 为超扫描研究的多人互动范式建立新模型。任务所包含协作因素的多少, 与任务是否涉及心理理论功能是影响个体脑间活动同步现象的重要条件。未来研究可结合进化博弈论等理论模型, 进一步探索合作与协作行为的差异及规范形成的心理与神经机制。     

The Role of Subsidies in Coordination Games with Interconnected Risk

Can subsidies promote Pareto‐optimum coordination? We found that partially subsidizing the cooperative actions for two out of six players in a laboratory coordination game usually produced better coordination and higher total social welfare with both deterministic and stochastic payoffs. Not only were the subsidized players more likely to cooperate (choose the Pareto‐optimum action), but the unsubsidized players increased their expectations on how likely others would cooperate, and they cooperated more frequently themselves. After removal of the subsidy, high levels of coordination continued in most groups with stochastic payoffs but declined in deterministic ones. This carry‐over disparity between the deterministic and stochastic settings was consistent with the economic theories that agents were more likely to keep the status quo option under uncertainty than without uncertainty. Hence, players with stochastic payoffs were more likely to keep the high coordination level (status quo) brought by the subsidy in the previous subsidy session. A post‐game survey also indicated that with stochastic payoffs, players focused on risk reduction. Temporary subsidies promoted lasting coordination because even after subsidy was removed, players still assumed that others players would prefer reduced risks from cooperation. With deterministic payoffs, however, the subsidy might crowd out other rationales for coordination, with many players indicating that the subsidy was the only reason for anyone to cooperate. Hence, the coordination level dropped when the subsidy was removed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.