情绪预测偏差的成因及干预

情绪预测偏差是一种对未来事件发生时情绪反应的预测和实际体验之间的分离现象。梳理该领域最近10年(2009~2019年)研究文献可知, 热点研究主题涉及偏差的现象、成因和干预, 相应呈现为三点主要发现: 情绪预测偏差十分普遍, 情绪预测偏差成因多源, 情绪预测偏差可以干预。未来研究应着力关注情绪预测偏差的发生模式和心理机制, 着力揭示具体偏差的神经心理机制, 并从进化和文化视角综合考察偏差的发生机制。     

人心难读：冲突中的预测偏差及其心理机制

冲突事件是指当事某方采取的行动可能对另一方造成直接且明显的伤害、进而导致紧张关系的事件。拒绝他人请求、反驳他人观点、与他人一起参与竞争等皆有可能诱发冲突。有效的冲突管理有助于减少冲突带来的消极影响,发挥冲突潜在的积极影响。但是,广泛存在的预测偏差严重妨碍了冲突管理。因此,欲解决冲突管理的难题,必须探究人类在冲突中的预测偏差。现有研究多着眼于非冲突中的预测偏差,采取信息驱动的视角,将预测偏差的主要原因归结为人受限于认知上的不足,因而认为预测偏差是一种错误,主要关注其消极影响。然而,现有研究忽视了冲突中的预测偏差的独特性。冲突中,预测偏差可能受人的自我保护动机和避免人际伤害动机驱动自上而下地产生,并具有一定的适应性。 基于对现有研究的总结,本项目旨在突破当前的理论困境,探讨冲突事件中预测偏差的独特规律及其心理机制与后果,具体而言包括四大目标：(1)聚焦冲突事件中的预测偏差,并以对应的非冲突事件作为对照,揭示预测偏差在冲突中独特的表现形式,提出冲突事件的“偏差放大效应”,即与非冲突事件相比,在冲突事件中,预测偏差的程度会被放大,例如反驳他人者对他人的体验产生较大的错误预测,而赞同他人者则相对能更准确地预测他人的体验;(2)从动机性认知视角探讨“偏差放大效应”的心理成因,揭示“负性驱动机制”,即人因为担忧冲突事件的负性结果,出于自我保护的目的而在注意、知觉、思维等认知加工环节把冲突事件的潜在结果加工得更加消极,作最坏的打算以应对冲突;(3)考察“负性驱动机制”下预测偏差导致的后果,如使人采取回避行为,具体表现为人际退缩和不作为等;(4)设计有效的去偏差方案,以直接和间接两种方式改变预测者的动机,进而改变其认知加工,减弱预测偏差。 通过完成以上目标,本项目将构建解释冲突事件中预测偏差的理论模型。该理论模型立足于动机性认知的视角,从现象层面揭示“偏差放大效应”,将负性偏差理论拓展到人际过程中;从机制层面突破信息驱动视角的局限,揭示动机性认知在人际互动中的指导作用;从思想层面基于生态理性观辩证分析预测偏差的适应性作用,促使研究者重新审视“何为理性”。该模型弥补了以往研究忽视动机对预测偏差的影响这一不足,并将预测偏差和负性偏差、动机性认知等理论结合起来,形成了更完整的理论框架。本项目有助于推动对预测偏差的全面理解,发展行为决策理论,帮助公众和社会治理者准确预测他人,提升冲突管理能力,提高决策质量。     

保护因素和风险因素提示对乐观偏差的影响

人们在相对风险认知中表现出的乐观偏差现象已被广泛证实。基于以往研究的不一致结果及可能存在的混淆因素,本研究考察提示保护因素和风险因素对乐观偏差的影响。实验一采用自我-同辈直接比较的方法,实验二采用自我判断方法,通过提示条件和无提示条件的比较发现,提示与将来事件相关的保护因素不影响乐观偏差,而提示风险因素能够显著降低乐观偏差,影响个人风险知觉,但是这种影响存在一定的有限性。     

帮忙失败后我会被差评吗?好心帮倒忙中的预测偏差

好心帮倒忙事件时有发生, 帮忙失败的施助者往往认为受助者会苛责自己, 因而可能不愿再次提供帮助。这种预测准确吗?通过6个研究( N = 1763), 对比施助者对受助者反应的预测和受助者的实际反应, 发现了施助者在好心帮倒忙时的预测偏差：他们高估了受助者的负面反应。而在帮忙成功时, 施助者未出现预测偏差或预测偏差的强度较弱。导致该预测偏差的原因是, 施助者更为关注自身的能力, 以为受助者也关注自己的能力, 而受助者更为在意施助者的温暖程度。     

判断与决策中的基线比例忽略

基线比例忽略是指在事件的判断中忽略相关事件统计学上的信息, 而只关注当前呈现的案例信息, 从而造成判断和决策偏差的一种现象。目前对这一现象的解释主要包括双加工理论和线性整合理论, 而影响基线比例忽略的因素有许多方面, 如信息特征、认知能力等等。在未来研究中, 应该深入分析双加工理论的作用机制以及依据模糊痕迹理论提出新的研究视角, 同时拓展在团体和公共领域中的应用性研究。     

行为决策中的比率偏差

比率偏差是指小概率事件以不同比率形式呈现时,人们倾向于认为以较小数字呈现的事件更不可能发生.这种现象在医疗卫生领域和职业生涯决策中有重要的应用价值.目前关于比率偏差产生的解释主要包括标准理论与认知经验自我理论.比率偏差的影响因素主要包括元认知技能、计算能力、认知视角和任务性质等.未来的研究需要从比率偏差现象的产生、心理机制及应用方面进行深入研究.     

乐观偏差研究概况

乐观偏差指个体倾向于认为自己更可能经历积极事件而他人更可能遭遇消极事件的现象。对乐观偏差的测量主要有直接比较和间接比较两种方式。事件特征和个体因素是乐观偏差的主要影响因素。产生乐观偏差的心理机制主要有自我中心主义和聚焦主义。乐观偏差对个体既有积极作用也有消极影响。未来研究主要包括:开发科学可行的测量工具;加强对个体水平乐观偏差的研究;把乐观偏差和悲观偏差结合起来进行研究;对乐观偏差进行认知神经心理机制的探讨。     

何以应对道德自我威胁?道德记忆偏差的视角

人们会做出一些不道德的事情,这可能对他们积极的道德自我概念构成威胁。为了应对这种道德自我威胁,人们会表现出道德记忆偏差,即遗忘威胁道德自我的不道德事件或信息。近年来,研究者基于自传体记忆范式、游戏范式、代入范式和自我参照范式,为道德记忆偏差现象提供了证据支持。研究还进一步表明,这种道德记忆偏差可能出于应对道德自我威胁的需要,即人们希望通过有选择地遗忘来维护积极的道德自我概念。 值得注意的是,道德记忆偏差现象存在一些不一致的发现。未来研究应该寻求可能的调节变量,以整合现有不一致的发现,揭示人们使用道德记忆偏差应对道德自我威胁的情境或个体差异。此外,根据道德自我威胁的解释,道德记忆偏差的存在可能需要一定条件。人们做出有意不道德行为时,应该能够意识到自身行为有违道德标准、体验到道德自我威胁,进而表现出道德记忆偏差;但是人们在做出无意不道德行为时,可能不会体验到道德自我威胁,也就不会表现出道德记忆偏差。人们做出不太严重的不道德行为时,道德记忆偏差能够帮助人们很好地应对道德自我威胁。但是人们在做出严重违反道德的行为时,道德记忆偏差可能不足以应对道德自我威胁,该偏差可能就不复存在。 道德记忆偏差与其他应对道德自我威胁策略之间可能存在一定的联系。一种可能性是,道德记忆偏差与这些策略之间是相关补充、共同发挥作用的。还有一种可能性是,其他策略可能为道德记忆偏差的出现提供了条件。人们在做出不道德行为后,可能会通过道德推脱和自我合理化等方式来降低其道德标准,改观其对该事件的评价,从而更容易地模糊不道德行为,表现出道德记忆偏差。除应对道德自我威胁外,道德记忆偏差还存在其他可能的解释。道德记忆偏差可能源自人们的印象管理动机,即人们可能为了维护在他人面前的道德形象而表现出道德记忆偏差。道德记忆偏差还可能发生在记忆加工的不同阶段,比如该现象可能发生在编码阶段,即人们对道德事件的编码加工多于不道德事件;储存阶段,即人们可能受到积极自我图式的影响而对不道德事件产生遗忘;也可能在提取阶段,即人们可能会主动地抑制对不道德事件的提取。未来研究应关注道德记忆偏差存在条件,并在研究广度上扩展其研究范畴,在研究深度上揭示其认知机制,并探究与其他应对道德自我威胁策略的关系。     

法律决策中消极程度及消除策略对后见偏差的影响

该研究考察法律决策中消极结果严重程度及消除策略对后见偏差的影响。实验采用3(严重程度:轻微损害、中度损害、严重损害)×3(有无策略:后见组、分散注意组、指导组)两因素被试间设计。采用自编两个案例及问卷测查法律决策中后见效应的差异,实验结果发现,后见偏差的强度随着事件消极结果严重程度的增加而显著增强。在消极结果的严重损害程度下,产生出最大的后见偏差。同时,两种策略指导都能够有效减少法律决策中的后见偏差。     

情感预测中的聚焦错觉

聚焦错觉是个体在进行情感预测时,错误地估计了聚焦事件会对情绪造成影响的一种倾向.聚焦错觉是造成情感预测偏差的重要原因.其心理机制主要包括直觉预测和可得性模型.聚焦错觉的影响因素主要有预测事件的情感效价、性质,情境因素、个体习惯和文化差异等.其应对策略主要有去焦点化和情感平均.未来的研究应从聚焦错觉与忽视情绪适应的关系、聚焦错觉的产生根源以及聚焦错觉与其他聚焦效应的关系等方面来进一步探讨.     

The “good” professional: Effects of trait-profile gender type,androgyny, and likableness on impressions of incumbents of sex-typed occupations

Three studies utilizing an impression formation paradigm assessed perceived desirability of masculine, feminine, and androgynous trait profiles attributed to incumbents of sex-typed occupations. Participants in all three studies were predominantly upper middle class Caucasians. Approximately 60% were women and 40% were men. While a general masculinity bias was observed, several important qualifications to this bias were suggested. In Study I, trait likableness had a greater influence than did trait gender typing on impressions across occupations, suggesting the occurrence of centrality effects. Context effects also occurred in impressions of various combinations of particular masculine and feminine traits. Study 2 controlled trait likableness, and while a masculinity bias was still observed, androgynous profiles were rated as equally desirable as masculine profiles across occupations. Study 3 demonstrated that high levels of both masculinity and femininity resulted in favorable impressions, and support was obtained for an “interactive model” of androgyny, i.e., androgynous profiles were rated as more desirable than either gender-typed masculine or feminine profiles across occupations. Nonetheless, some evidence of a “matching bias” between trait gender typing and occupational sex typing was obtained in all three studies, especially for the male-typed occupation of lawyer and the female-typed occupation of nurse. The results are discussed in terms of the operation of “occupational role schemas” in perceptions of incumbents.     

模拟法官决策中心理控制源对后见偏差的影响

考察模拟法官决策中心理控制源对后见偏差的影响。实验采用2（心理控制源：外控型、内控型）×3（有无策略：后见组、分散注意组、指导组）两因素被试间实验设计。采用自编两个案例及问卷测查模拟法官决策中后见效应的差异。实验结果发现,不同心理控制源是导致模拟法官决策中后见偏差存在差异的影响因素。同时,两种策略都能够有效减少模拟法官决策中的后见偏差。     

Computer-Mediated Communication Versus Vocal Communication and the Attenuation of Pre-Interaction Impressions

Conflicting theoretical approaches yield divergent predictions about the effects of telephones versus computer-mediated communication (CMC) in the persistence or dissipation of pre-interaction expectancies. Moreover, different theoretical orientations and their underlying assumptions often invoke different methodologies, which can bias the results of research. The current studies articulate and assess rival hypotheses from alternative theoretical paradigms to uncover how CMC and vocal communication affect interpersonal impressions. Methodological issues in past CMC research are evaluated that limit the generalizability of previous findings in the area. Experiments employing alternative assumptions and methods indicate that CMC is functionally equivalent to vocal communication in its ability to ameliorate expectancies and that in some cases it can be superior in transmitting positive impressions.     

Conceptualizing control in social cognition: how executive functioning modulates the expression of automatic stereotyping

Two studies investigated the role of executive control in moderating the relationship between automatic stereotype activation and behavioral responses. Race bias in weapon identification was used to measure stereotyping, and a process dissociation procedure was used to measure automatic and controlled components of performance. In Experiment 1, the controlled component was shown to correlate with general attention control and race-specific motivations to control prejudice. Across multiple measures, automatic race bias was more likely to be expressed as behavioral discrimination among individuals with poor executive control. Experiment 2 found the same relationship between automatic and controlled components of behavior when predicting impressions of a Black individual. Executive control is discussed in the context of other control strategies in influential dual-process models of stereotyping.     

How many hindsight biases are there?

The answer is three: questioning a conceptual default assumption in hindsight bias research, we argue that the hindsight bias is not a unitary phenomenon but consists of three separable and partially independent subphenomena or components, namely, memory distortions, impressions of foreseeability and impressions of necessity. Following a detailed conceptual analysis including a systematic survey of hindsight characterizations in the published literature, we investigated these hindsight components in the context of political elections. We present evidence from three empirical studies that impressions of foreseeability and memory distortions (1) show hindsight effects that typically differ in magnitude and sometimes even in direction, (2) are essentially uncorrelated, and (3) are differentially influenced by extraneous variables. A fourth study found similar dissociations between memory distortions and impressions of necessity. All four studies thus provide support for a separate components view of the hindsight bias. An important consequence of such a view is that apparent contradictions in research findings as well as in theoretical explanations (e.g., cognitive vs. social-motivational) might be alleviated by taking differences between components into account. We also suggest conditions under which the components diverge or converge.     

Associations between visual attention,implicit and explicit attitude and behaviour for physical activity

The current study explored associations between previous physical activity and both implicit and explicit attitudes, as well as visual attention and activity motivation (intention). Analyses were performed on participants initially unaware of the physical activity focus of the study (N = 98). Higher levels of physical activity were associated with positive implicit attitudes and an attentional bias towards exercise cues. There was a quadratic (‘U’ shaped) relationship between implicit attitude and attention: the more extreme individuals’ implicit attitudes towards exercise (positive or negative) the greater their attentional bias to exercise cues. Furthermore, explicit attitude moderated the relationship between attentional bias and physical activity: attentional bias to exercise cues was associated with higher levels of physical activity only for those who had a strong positive explicit attitude. Findings suggested that implicit cognitions are linked with previous physical activity. Future research should consider strategies for strengthening positive implicit and explicit attitudes and directing attention to cues signalling healthy behaviour.     

The effect of instructions on performance in the Wason selection task

The effect of instructions on performance on the standard abstract form of Wason’s selection task was examined. Instructions to determine whether or not the statement is violated did not lead to an increase in correct responding, contrary to previous suggestions that such instructions would induce falsification strategies, but rather to an increase in verification bias. Instructions to determine whether the statement is true or false led to increased variability in performance, supporting the suggestion that such instructions are inherently ambiguous. Thus, the results demonstrate that the form of instructions can have a significant effect on performance in the selection task. Verification bias did better as an explanation of the data than did matching bias, which only fared well when its predictions coincided with those of verification bias. A substantial proportion of the data was unaccounted for by either of these strategies, which is consistent with the findings of a number of other recent studies.     

Temporal predictability enhances judgements of causality in elemental causal induction from both observation and intervention

When the temporal interval or delay separating cause and effect is consistent over repeated instances, it becomes possible to predict when the effect will follow from the cause, hence temporal predictability serves as an appropriate term for describing consistent cause-effect delays. It has been demonstrated that in instrumental action-outcome learning tasks, enhancing temporal predictability by holding the cause-effect interval constant elicits higher judgements of causality compared to conditions involving variable temporal intervals. Here, we examine whether temporal predictability exerts a similar influence when causal learning takes place through observation rather than intervention through instrumental action. Four experiments demonstrated that judgements of causality were higher when the temporal interval was constant than when it was variable, and that judgements declined with increasing variability. We further found that this beneficial effect of predictability was stronger in situations where the effect base-rate was zero (Experiments 1 and 3). The results therefore clearly indicate that temporal predictability enhances impressions of causality, and that this effect is robust and general. Factors that could mediate this effect are discussed.     

Changes in syllabus tone affect warmth (but not competence) ratings of both male and female instructors

The syllabus is often the first meaningful piece of information that students receive about a course. Previous research has indicated that students form more positive impressions of a course instructor after reading a syllabus that has been manipulated to convey information in a friendly, rather than unfriendly, tone (Harnish and Bridges in Soc Psychol Educ 14:319–330, 2011). While a friendly syllabus leads to increased perceptions of instructor warmth and approachability, it is unclear from this previous research whether a friendly syllabus may also lead to decreases in the perceived competence of the instructor. Thus, we aimed to clarify whether changes in syllabus tone affect perceptions of instructor competency. We also wished to explore the possibility of gender bias affecting these syllabus-based impressions of instructors, and to examine whether differences in syllabus tone impact the impressions formed of male and female instructors in the same way. Participants read a friendly or unfriendly course syllabus from either a male, female, or gender-unspecified instructor. Regardless of instructor gender, participants receiving the friendly syllabus perceived the instructor as being more approachable, more caring, and more motivating, but not any more or less competent, compared to those receiving the unfriendly syllabus. While instructors will be relieved to know that efforts to appear friendly on a course syllabus do not appear to negatively impact student perceptions of instructor competence, more research is needed to examine the potential role of gender bias on students’ initial impressions of instructors.     

Invisible overtures: fears of rejection and the signal amplification bias

Four studies demonstrated that fears of rejection prompt individuals to exhibit a signal amplification bias, whereby they perceive that their overtures communicate more romantic interest to potential partners than is actually the case. The link between rejection anxieties and the bias was evident regardless of whether fears of rejection were assessed in terms of chronic attachment anxiety or were induced by reflection on a previous rejection experience. Mediation analyses suggested that the bias stems in part from an expected-augmenting process, whereby persons with strong fears of rejection incorrectly assume that the recipient of their overtures will take their inhibitions into account when interpreting their behavior. Implications for understanding the link between attachment anxiety and loneliness and for designing social skills interventions are discussed.