Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask

Many studies have reported that the confidence people have in their judgments exceeds their accuracy and that overconfidence increases with the difficulty of the task. However, some common analyses confound systematic psychological effects with statistical effects that are inevitable if judgments are imperfect. We present three experiments using new methods to separate systematic effects from the statistically inevitable. We still find systematic differences between confidence and accuracy, including an overall bias toward overconfidence. However, these effects vary greatly with the type of judgment. There is little general overconfidence with two-choice questions and pronounced overconfidence with subjective confidence intervals. Over- and underconfidence also vary systematically with the domain of questions asked, but not as a function of difficulty. We also find stable individual differences. Determining why some people, some domains, and some types of judgments are more prone to overconfidence will be important to understanding how confidence judgments are made.     

The More You See It, the More You Know It: Memory Accessibility and Sexual Harassment Judgments

The influence of the availability of personally known and media known sexual harassment victims and harassers on perceptions of social sexual workplace conduct was examined. Male and female full-time workers evaluated two videotapes that depict sexual harassment in the workplace. Results indicated that perceived likelihood of harassment and discrimination increased as participants recalled more examples of harassment victims whom they personally knew. In some instances, recall of victims in the media had a similar influence. As predicted, the influence of availability was stronger for men than for women. Similar findings resulted from the analyses of the unwelcomeness, severity, and pervasiveness of the conduct; however, legal standard, gender, or case often moderated this relationship. The implications of these findings are discussed.     

The More You Ask For,the More You Get: Anchoring in Personal Injury Verdicts

The ‘anchoring and adjustment’ bias was demonstrated in a personal injury case using mock jurors. In Experiment 1, the ad damnum, or requested compensation, was manipulated across participants. In Experiment 2, anchors were operationalized as the strength of the legal evidence. Both monetary and causal anchors systematically influenced judgments of the probability that the defendant caused the plaintiff's injuries, compensation awarded, and perceptions of the litigants. These results indicate that anchoring occurs in legal applications, and that plaintiffs would do well to request large compensation awards. In addition, anchors expressed on one scale affected judgments expressed on another scale. This cross-modality anchoring stands in contrast to previous studies. Finally, these anchoring effects are unlikely to be explained by either demand effects or perceived relevance of the anchor.     

Demystifying Intuition: What It Is,What It Does,and How It Does It

Definitions of intuition are discussed and two working definitions are proposed. This is followed by a list of eight unresolved problems concerning intuition. It is suggested that all of these problems can be resolved by cognitive-experiential self-theory (CEST), a dual-process theory of personality according to which people process information with two systems, an experiential/intuitive system that is an associative learning system that humans share with other animals and a uniquely human verbal reasoning system. Intuition is considered to be a subsystem of the experiential/ intuitive system that operates by exactly the same principles and attributes but has narrower boundary conditions. The next section includes a presentation of the most relevant aspects of CEST with an emphasis on the operating rules and attributes of the experiential/intuitive system. This is followed by demonstrating how the operation of the experiential/intuitive system can resolve each of the unresolved problems concerning intuition. The article closes with a comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of the experiential/intuitive and rational/analytic systems. It is concluded that neither system is generally superior to the other, as each has important advantages and disadvantages.     

Ask and You Shall be Given: Request Size and Donations to a Good Cause1

In an attempt to replicate the findings reported in this Journal by Weyant and Smith (1987), members or recent donors to a Canadian civil liberties organization were asked to donate money under one of three conditions: (a) In the control condition, they were simply asked for a donation; (b) in the “smaller request” condition, they were asked to make a donation, but amounts of Canadian $30 to $100 were suggested; and (c) in the “larger request” condition, amounts of $50 to $250 were suggested. Unlike the Weyant and Smith studies, we found no difference in the proportion of respondents making a donation, but significant differences in the size of the donations made by those making donations. In our study, the most effective way of getting large donations was to ask for a large amount. It was suggested that the most likely explanations for the differences in the results of the two studies were the following: First, our target population were previous donors to the organization, whereas those in the Weyant and Smith studies were not likely to have been. Previous research suggests that those who had been donors previously are influenced, positively, by requests for a specific large donation, whereas those not previously approached are, if anything, negatively influenced. Second, our “larger request” appears to be within a plausible range for donations, whereas the larger request in the Weyant and Smith study may have been seen as being outside of the plausible range. In any case, however, we would recommend caution in drawing a conclusion about the most effective request size to encourage people to donate money to charity.     

Effect of Skill on Visual Laterality: Now You See It - Now You Dont (Comments on Clancy and Hoyer, 1993)

Clancy and Hoyer (1993) have recently investigated the effects of domain-specific expertise and hemispheric asymmetry on detecting featural differences in visual patterns. Based on the pattern of reaction time results, they concluded that there is a left-hemisphere advantage for making difficult, domain-relevant visual discriminations in skilled experts but not in unskilled control subjects. However, response accuracy data from the same experiment contradict their conclusions about the relationship of skill to the pattern of hemispheric asymmetry and favor an alternative interpretation in terms of the specific aspects of visual information needed to make different types of discrimination.     

Ask and You Shall Find Out: Some Multicultural Dynamics in Catholic Theological Education

The theological classroom is a place where dynamics of diversity and multiculturalism enter not only the understanding and interpretation of the course material, but also the very processes of teaching and learning. But how is one to learn and assess what students and professors are experiencing as cultural differences, and how is one to sort out the personal characteristics from the cultural? This essay, underscoring the importance of asking students about cultural issues, discusses a few such issues via some anecdotal data.     

Making Sense of It All: Hermeneutics and Family Therapy

In this personal narrative, the author presents his journey as a beginning therapist. He focuses on the changes that have taken place in his personal and therapeutic worldview as a result of conceptualizing therapy as a hermeneutic process. Three constructs essential to hermeneutics are discussed. The author illustrates how each construct is used in the interpretation of a biblical text and then discusses how the same construct is applied to therapy. Finally, he offers his ideas to stimulate conversation to further clarify his own thinking about therapy.     

Wanting It All: Career, Marriage, and Motherhood During College-Educated Women's 20s

College women's expectations for career, marriage, and motherhood were assessed during the senior year, and their outcomes were assessed 7 years later. In 1993, 118 White women and 82 Women of Color were randomly selected from 5 northeastern colleges and interviewed in person. In 2000, 178 (89%) were reached for second interviews by telephone. Results indicate that as seniors the women wanted careers, marriage, and motherhood. Career development was the priority of their 20s. At the 7-year point, marital status was unrelated to advanced degrees attained or to career status, but mothers had significantly fewer advanced degrees and lower career status than nonmothers. Socioeconomic status, race, and intentions concerning career and family were related to career status and motherhood status.     

The Effect of Acknowledging Mock Jurors' Feelings on Affective and Cognitive Biases: It Depends on the Sample

An intervention designed to correct affective and cognitive biases was tested in the context of a civil commitment hearing of a sexually violent predator. Potential differences between a college student mock jury sample and a more representative, juror venire sample in reaction to these bias correction interventions were explored. In the first of two experiments, undergraduate mock jurors (n = 130) demonstrated a leniency effect when the sex offender's attorney acknowledged jurors' emotional reactions and motivated them to thoughtfully weigh the evidence. The second experiment failed to replicate these findings with a more ecologically valid sample (n = 300). Several differences between samples were found: representative jurors, as opposed to undergraduates, were sensitive to differences between pure clinical and actuarial expert testimony; and measures of intrinsic cognitive effort predicted verdicts for undergraduates, but not for representative jurors. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of Interest,Thematic Congruence,and Typicality on Memory for Television,Radio, and Press Advertisements of New Products

Little is known about how the content of advertisements is remembered. We studied how product interest, thematic congruence between advertisement and programme, and the typicality of the elements of an advertisement affect memory for new product ads in television, radio, and printed media. Participants were exposed to a single type of media with two embedded ads. After a filler task, they completed a true/false recognition task. In television and radio, accuracy was higher for the interesting product ads. In three experiments, we found no effect of thematic congruence, and the standard effect of typicality. In printed media, where participants are free to read the ads or not, the differences in hits and false alarms in typicality were due to a change in the response criterion and not to an effect on memory. We conclude that different results can be obtained depending on the exposure to different media. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Shifting Subtypes of ADHD: Classification Depends on How Symptom Reports are Combined

Research on the correlates of ADHD subtypes has yielded inconsistent findings, perhaps because the procedures used to define subtypes vary across studies. We examined this possibility by investigating whether the ADHD subtype distribution in a community sample was sensitive to different methods for combining informant data. We conducted a study to screen all children in grades 1-5 (N = 7847) in a North Carolina County for ADHD. Teachers completed a DSM-IV behavior rating scale and parents completed a structured telephone interview. We found substantial differences in the distribution of ADHD subtypes depending on whether one or both sources were used to define the subtypes. When parent and teacher data were combined, the procedures used substantially influenced subtype distribution. We conclude the ADHD subtype distribution is sensitive to how symptom information is combined and that standardization of the subtyping process is required to advance our understanding of the correlates of different ADHD subtypes.     

Be Careful What You Ask For: Effects of Response Instructions on the Construct Validity and Reliability of Situational Judgment Tests

The aim of this study was to examine how six different types of situational judgment test (SJT) instructions, used frequently in practice, influence the psychometric characteristics of SJTs. The six SJT versions used the exact same items and differed only in their instructions; these versions were administered in two phases. Phase I was a between–subjects design (n= 486) that had participants complete one version of the SJTs. Phase II was a within–subjects design (n= 231) held several weeks later that had participants complete all six versions of the SJTs. Further, 146 of these individuals completed both phases, allowing for an assessment of test–retest reliability. A variety of objective and subjective criteria were collected, including self and peer ratings. Results indicated that instructions had a large effect on SJT responses, reliability, and validity. In general, instructions asking what one ‘would do’ showed more favorable characteristics than those that asked what one ‘should do’. Correlations between these two types were relatively low despite the fact that the same items were used, and criterion–related validities differed substantially in favor of the ‘would do’ instructions. Overall, this study finds that researchers and practitioners must give careful consideration to the types of SJT instructions used; failing to do so could influence criterion–related validity and cloud inferences of construct validity.