An objective counterfactual theory of information

We offer a novel theory of information that differs from traditional accounts in two respects: (i) it explains information in terms of counterfactuals rather than conditional probabilities, and (ii) it does not make essential reference to doxastic states of subjects, and consequently allows for the sort of objective, reductive explanations of various notions in epistemology and philosophy of mind that many have wanted from an account of information.     

Team Semantics for Interventionist Counterfactuals: Observations vs. Interventions

Journal of Philosophical Logic - Team semantics is a highly general framework for logics which describe dependencies and independencies among variables. Typically, the (in)dependencies considered...     

On the significance of conditional probabilities

The orthodoxy that conditional probabilities reflect what are for a subject evidential bearings is seconded. This significance suggests that there should be principles equating rationally revised probabilities on new information with probabilities reached by conditionalizing on this information. Several principles, two of which are endorsed, are considered. A book is made against a violator of these, and it is argued that there must be something wrong with a person against whom such books can be made. Appendices comment on Popper-functions, elaborate on bets and odds, and relate dutch books and strategies to conditions of inconsistency (Ramsey's idea) and imperfection.This paper corrects and elaborates two-fold Conditional Probabilities, Conditionalization, and Dutch Books, PSA 1990: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Volume 1, edited by A. Fine, M. Forbes, and L. Wessels, East Lansing, Michigan, 1990.     

The functional theory of counterfactual thinking.

Counterfactuals are thoughts about alternatives to past events, that is, thoughts of what might have been. This article provides an updated account of the functional theory of counterfactual thinking, suggesting that such thoughts are best explained in terms of their role in behavior regulation and performance improvement. The article reviews a wide range of cognitive experiments indicating that counterfactual thoughts may influence behavior by either of two routes: a content-specific pathway (which involves specific informational effects on behavioral intentions, which then influence behavior) and a content-neutral pathway (which involves indirect effects via affect, mind-sets, or motivation). The functional theory is particularly useful in organizing recent findings regarding counterfactual thinking and mental health. The article concludes by considering the connections to other theoretical conceptions, especially recent advances in goal cognition.     

The use of conditional probabilities in applications of Holland's theory

The hexagon of J. L. Holland (1973, Making Vocational Choices: A Theory of Careers, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, Prentice-Hall) is a useful heuristic device for predicting congruency and consistency among the six personality/environment types specified by his theory. One limitation of the traditional hexagon is the implicit bidirectionality: the hexagon displays a single distance between two types. People in applied areas may assume a symmetry which does not exist. Examples are given of situations in which a consistent asymmetry occurs; e.g., in the illustrative data presented, C (Conventional) types are more likely to have E (Enterprising) as a secondary interest than E types are to have C as a secondary interest. Implications of such asymmetries are discussed and suggestions made concerning counseling and other applications.     

A conditional theory of trying

What I shall do in this paper is to propose an analysis of ‘Agent P tries to A’ in terms of a subjunctive conditional, that avoids some of the problems that beset most alternative accounts of trying, which I call ‘referential views’. They are so-named because on these alternative accounts, ‘P tries to A’ entails that there is a trying to A by P, and therefore the expression ‘P’s trying to A’ can occur in the subject of a sentence and be used to refer to a particular, namely an act or event of trying. A conditional account such as mine avoids having to answer questions about those alleged particulars, for example their location and their causal relation to physical actions, or alternatively their identity to physical actions. In brief, the analysis I propose eschews any need to quantify over any sort of trying particulars. I both clarify the proposal and deal with five possible objections to it: (1) metaphysically impossible actions: (2) cases of finking and reverse-cycle finking; (3) the empirical emptiness of preventers and blockers; (4) proximate intentions and trying; and (5) alleged explanatory loss.     

Eysenck's theory of incubation: A critical analysis

Eysenck's theory of incubation is summarized. Arguments and evidence concerning its validity and potential value are presented.     

On the logic of nonmonotonic conditionals and conditional probabilities

I will describe the logics of a range of conditionals that behave like conditional probabilities at various levels of probabilistic support. Families of these conditionals will be characterized in terms of the rules that their members obey. I will show that for each conditional, , in a given family, there is a probabilistic support level r and a conditional probability function P such that, for all sentences C and B, CB holds just in case P[B|C]r. Thus, each conditional in a given family behaves like conditional probability above some specific support level.Chris Swoyer provided very helpful comments on drafts of this paper.     

Domain theory: A critical review

The domain approach of Turiel and colleagues has emerging as the dominant paradigm in the field of social development, moral development in particular. If it is proven correct, Piaget's and Kohlberg's structural accounts of moral development must be radically modified and possibly even discarded. After an introduction where we set the context for our critical view, this study has three parts. In the first part, we present the main propositions of the domain approach. In the second part, we show that despite of its strengths, the domain approach suffers from several conceptual and methodological flaws. In the third part, we summarize the main ideas of our analysis, suggest avenues for future research, and articulate what can be learned for future research from our critique of the domain approach. Our main conclusion is that the domain approach should be seen more as complementary rather than an alternative to, existing accounts of moral development. Thus, despite some of its insights and power to stimulate empirical research and theoretical debate, the domain approach is not yet an unquestionable and complete alternative to existing accounts of moral development because of its conceptual and methodological flaws.     

Prior probabilities and confirmation theory: A problem with the fine-tuning argument

International Journal for Philosophy of Religion -     

Judgment dissociation theory: an analysis of differences in causal,counterfactual, and covariational reasoning

Research suggests that causal judgment is influenced primarily by counterfactual or covariational reasoning. In contrast, the author of this article develops judgment dissociation theory (JDT), which predicts that these types of reasoning differ in function and can lead to divergent judgments. The actuality principle proposes that causal selections focus on antecedents that are sufficient to generate the actual outcome. The substitution principle proposes that ad hoc categorization plays a key role in counterfactual and covariational reasoning such that counterfactual selections focus on antecedents that would have been sufficient to prevent the outcome or something like it and covariational selections focus on antecedents that yield the largest increase in the probability of the outcome or something like it. The findings of 4 experiments support JDT but not the competing counterfactual and covariational accounts.     

The emotional costs of parents' conditional regard: a self-determination theory analysis

Parents' use of conditional regard as a socializing practice was hypothesized to predict their children's introjected internalization (indexed by a sense of internal compulsion), resentment toward parents, and ill-being. In Study 1, involving three generations, mothers' reports of their parents' having used conditional regard to promote academic achievement predicted (a) the mothers' poor well-being and controlling parenting attitudes, and (b) their college-aged daughters' viewing them as having used conditional regard, thus showing both negative affective consequences from and intergenerational transmission of conditional regard. Study 2 expanded on the first by using four domains, including both genders, and examining mediating processes. College students' perceptions of their mothers' and fathers' having used conditional regard in four domains (emotion control, prosocial, academic, sport) were found to relate to introjected internalization, behavioral enactment, fluctuations in self-esteem, perceived parental disapproval, and resentment of parents. Introjection mediated the link from conditional regard to behavioral enactment. The results suggest that use of conditional regard as a socializing practice can promote enactment of the desired behaviors but does so with significant affective costs.     

A high-speed algorithm for computing conditional probabilities of substrings of sequentially observed data

An algorithm is described that computes relative frequencies of occurrence of all arbitrarily long substrings of sequential data, such as are obtained from experiments in learning/memory and verbal interaction. The algorithm offers high speed and provides systematization for the computation of empirical conditional probabilities. Use of this algorithm allows application of probabilistic and information theoretic disciplines to reveal dependencies between events separated arbitrarily in time.     

Verbal learning: Incremental vs. all-or-none theory

The incremental and all-or-none theories of verbal learning are compared by means of a little-used but methodologically superior variation of the “drop-out” paradigm with paired associates. Earlier experiments purporting to be relevant to the controversy are rejected as failing to offer a conclusive distinction between the two theories. The results presented here are taken to support the incremental theory. It is suggested that irregularities in the results of this and other experiments are caused by several intrusive factors, and a “dual-factor” hypothesis which was put forward to account for these irregularities is questioned on logical and methodological grounds.