Perceiving a strong causal relation in a weak contingency: Further investigation of the evidential evaluation model of causal judgement

Contingency information is information about the occurrence or nonoccurrence of a certain effect in the presence or absence of a candidate cause. An objective measure of contingency is the δP rule, which involves subtracting the probability of occurrence of an effect when a causal candidate is absent from the probability of occurrence of the effect when the candidate is present. Causal judgements conform closely to δP but deviate from it under certain circumstances. Three experiments show that such deviations can be predicted by a model of causal judgement that has two components: a rule of evidence, that causal judgement is a function of the proportion of relevant instances that are judged to be confirmatory for the causal candidate, and a tendency for information about instances in which the candidate is present to have greater effect on judgement than instances in which the candidate is absent. Two experiments demonstrate how this model accounts for some recently published findings. A third experiment shows that it is possible to use the model to predict the occurrence of high causal judgements when the objective contingency is close to zero.     

Cue competition effects in human causal learning

Five experiments involving human causal learning were conducted to compare the cue competition effects known as blocking and unovershadowing, in proactive and retroactive instantiations. Experiment 1 demonstrated reliable proactive blocking and unovershadowing but only retroactive unovershadowing. Experiment 2 replicated the same pattern and showed that the retroactive unovershadowing that was observed was interfered with by a secondary memory task that had no demonstrable effect on either proactive unovershadowing or blocking. Experiments 3a, 3b, and 3c demonstrated that retroactive unovershadowing was accompanied by an inflated memory effect not accompanying proactive unovershadowing. The differential pattern of proactive versus retroactive cue competition effects is discussed in relationship to amenable associative and inferential processing possibilities.     

Cue interaction and judgments of causality: Contributions of causal and associative processes

In four experiments, the predictions made by causal model theory and the Rescorla-Wagner model were tested by using a cue interaction paradigm that measures the relative response to a given event based on the influence or salience of an alternative event. Experiments 1 and 2 uncorrelated two variables that have typically been confounded in the literature (causal order and the number of cues and outcomes) and demonstrated that overall contingency judgments are influenced by the causal structure of the events. Experiment 3 showed that trial-by-trial prediction responses, a second measure of causal assessment, were not influenced by the causal structure of the described events. Experiment 4 revealed that participants became less sensitive to the influence of the causal structure in both their ratings and their predictions as trials progressed. Thus, two experiments provided evidence for high-level (causal reasoning) processes, and two experiments provided evidence for low-level (associative) processes. We argue that both factors influence causal assessment, depending on what is being asked about the events and participants' experience with those events.     

An evidential support accumulation model of subjective probability

A model of cue-based probability judgment is developed within the framework of support theory. Cue diagnosticity is evaluated from experience as represented by error-free frequency counts. When presented with a pattern of cues, the diagnostic implications of each cue are assessed independently and then summed to arrive at an assessment of the support for a hypothesis, with greater weight placed on present than on absent cues. The model can also accommodate adjustment of support in light of the baserate or prior probability of a hypothesis. Support for alternatives packed together in a "residual" hypothesis is discounted; fewer cues are consulted in assessing support for alternatives as support for the focal hypothesis increases. Results of fitting this and several alternative models to data from four new multiple-cue probability learning experiments are reported.     

Isolating causal effects through experimental changes in parent-child interaction

A distinction is made between functionaland intentionalcontrol in parent-child interaction. These concepts are drawn, respectively, from opérant and cognitive models of interaction process. Experimental evidence is presented that cognitive factors such as expectations or hypotheses indeed affect the relations between parents and their own children. This necessitates a further distinction between long-termand short-termcausal effects: Since changes in parents' expectations for their children may lag behind actual changes in children's behavior, short-term effects inferred from observations of ongoing interactions may not reflect the long-term dynamics of the relationship.     

Cue competition effects in the planarian

The learning abilities of planarian worms (Dugesia tigrina) were assessed by using a number of Pavlovian conditioning paradigms. Experiment 1 showed that planaria were susceptible to basic conditioning in that they readily developed a conditioned response to a change in ambient luminance when it was consistently paired with an electric shock over a number of trials. In Experiment 2, the change in luminance was presented in a compound with a vibration stimulus during conditioning. Subsequent tests revealed poor conditioning of the elements compared with control groups in which the animals were conditioned in the presence of the elements alone, an instance of overshadowing. In Experiment 3, pre-training of one of the elements before compound conditioning resulted in blocking of learning about the other element. These results add to other studies that have reported cue competition effects in animal species belonging to different phyla (chordate, mollusk, arthropod), suggesting that learning in these phyla could be ruled by similar principles. The results are discussed adopting an evolutionary-comparative approach.     

An evaluation of evaluative personality terms: a comparison of the big seven and five-factor model in predicting psychopathology

Two personality models are compared regarding their relationship with personality disorder (PD) symptom counts and with lifetime Axis I diagnoses. These models share 5 similar domains, and the Big 7 model also includes 2 domains assessing self-evaluation: positive and negative valence. The Big 7 model accounted for more variance in PDs than the 5-factor model, primarily because of the association of negative valence with most PDs. Although low-positive valence was associated with most Axis I diagnoses, the 5-factor model generally accounted for more variance in Axis I diagnoses than the Big 7 model. Some predicted associations between self-evaluation and psychopathology were not found, and unanticipated associations emerged. These findings are discussed regarding the utility of evaluative terms in clinical assessment.     

Transfer effects between moral dilemmas: A causal model theory

Evaluations of analogous situations are an important source for our moral intuitions. A puzzling recent set of findings in experiments exploring transfer effects between intuitions about moral dilemmas has demonstrated a striking asymmetry. Transfer often occurred with a specific ordering of moral dilemmas, but not when the sequence was reversed. In this article we present a new theory of transfer between moral intuitions that focuses on two components of moral dilemmas, namely their causal structure and their default evaluations. According to this theory, transfer effects are expected when the causal models underlying the considered dilemmas allow for a mapping of the highlighted aspect of the first scenario onto the causal structure of the second dilemma, and when the default evaluations of the two dilemmas substantially differ. The theory’s key predictions for the occurrence and the direction of transfer effects between two moral dilemmas are tested in five experiments with various variants of moral dilemmas from different domains. A sixth experiment tests the predictions of the theory for how the target action in the moral dilemmas is represented.     

Knowing who dunnit: Infants identify the causal agent in an unseen causal interaction

Preverbal infants can represent the causal structure of events, including distinguishing the agentive and receptive roles and categorizing entities according to stable causal dispositions. This study investigated how infants combine these 2 kinds of causal inference. In Experiments 1 and 2, 9.5-month-olds used the position of a human hand or a novel puppet (causal agents), but not a toy train (an inert object), to predict the subsequent motion of a beanbag. Conversely, in Experiment 3, 10- and 7-month-olds used the motion of the beanbag to infer the position of a hand but not of a toy block. These data suggest that preverbal infants expect a causal agent as the source of motion of an inert object.     

Cue strength in second-language processing: An eye-tracking study

This study used eye-tracking and grammaticality judgement measures to examine how second-language (L2) learners process syntactic violations in English. Participants were native Arabic and native Mandarin Chinese speakers studying English as an L2, and monolingual English-speaking controls. The violations involved incorrect word order and differed in two ways predicted to be important by the unified competition model [UCM; MacWhinney, B. (2005). A unified model of language acquisition. In J. F. Kroll & A. M. B. de Groot (Eds.), Handbook of bilingualism: Psycholinguistic approaches (pp. 49–67). Oxford: Oxford University Press.]. First, one violation had more and stronger cues to ungrammaticality than the other. Second, the grammaticality of these word orders varied in Arabic and Mandarin Chinese. Sensitivity to violations was relatively quick overall, across all groups. Sensitivity also was related to the number and strength of cues to ungrammaticality regardless of native language, which is consistent with the general principles of the UCM. However, there was little evidence of cross-language transfer effects in either eye movements or grammaticality judgements.     

Word frequency and predictability effects in reading French: An evaluation of the E-Z Reader model

French readers' eye movements were monitored as they read a passage of text. Initial global analyses of word frequency, accounting for the majority of fixations in the text, revealed a good fit between the observed data and the simulated data from the E-Z Reader 7 model of eye movement control. However, the model did not perform as well on simulations of contextual predictability effects. A subset of 20 controlled words from the passage were used to examine the combined effects of frequency and predictability. Results from the observed data showed main effects of frequency and predictability but no interaction. With certain modifications, the E-Z Reader 7 model was able to adequately simulate the pattern of data. Although the E-Z Reader model successfully accounted for the present data, we believe that further modifications will be necessary in order to better account for data in the literature.     

Interhemispheric interaction and egocentrism: the role of handedness in social comparative judgement

Previous research has shown that people are egocentrically biased when making judgements that require a self-to-peer comparison - leading to above-/below-average effects and comparative optimism/pessimism. Two experiments examined whether interhemispheric brain connectivity (assessed via strength of handedness) is associated with egocentrism in the comparative judgement process. In Experiment 1, strong handers (SH) and mixed handers (MH) made percentile rank judgements about their abilities in easy and hard domains. In Experiment 2, SH and MH judged their likelihoods of outperforming a co-participant in easy and hard tasks. Both experiments showed that SH were more egocentric than MH and thus showed (a) more above- and below-average effects when estimating their abilities (Experiment 1) and (b) generally larger optimism biases when predicting performances in a competition (Experiment 2). Taken together, these experiments provide evidence that underlying interhemispheric connectivity shapes egocentrism in comparative judgement.     

The effect of imagining an event on expectations for the event: An interpretation in terms of the availability heuristic

Previous studies have indicated that explaining a hypothetical event makes the event seem more likely through the creation of causal connections. However, such effects could arise through the use of the availability heuristic; that is, subjective likelihood is increased by an event becoming easier to imagine. Two experiments were designed to demonstrate this principle. In Experiment 1, subjects asked to imagine Jimmy Carter winning the presidential election (prior to the election) predicted that he was more likely to win than subjects asked to imagine Gerald Ford winning. In Experiment 2, subjects asked to imagine a good college football season for the previous championship team were more likely to predict a major bowl bid than subjects asked to imagine a bad season, although the effect did not appear in predictions of the season record. In both studies, subjects who were also asked to explain the imaginary event were no different from subjects who only imagined. Several other attributional distortions are interpreted in terms of the availability heuristic.     

The structure of Japanese abilities: An analysis in terms of the hierarchical model of intelligence

The structure of Japanese abilities is analyzed in terms of the Burt-Vernon hierarchical model of intelligence. The data are derived from the Japanese standardization of theWechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Revised. It is found that Japanese children are marginally but significantly superior to white American children on Spearman’sg. Japanese children are inferior on the group verbal factor but superior on the group perceptual factor. On the primary abilities, Japanese children are inferior on verbal comprehension and perceptual speed and superior on memory span, number, and spatial ability. It is suggested that this pattern of Japanese cognitive strengths and weaknesses helps to clarify a number of conflicting findings on Japanese intelligence.     

The determinants of employee absenteeism: An empirical test of a causal model*

LISREL estimates of the parameters of a causal model of absenteeism are reported for a sample of 425 full-time employees of a 327-bed medical centre. The model modifies and extends the conceptual framework of Steers & Rhodes (1978) and includes routinization, centralization, pay, distributive justice, work involvement, role ambiguity, conflict and overload, kinship responsibility, organizational permissiveness, job satisfaction, job involvement, organizational commitment, health status and alcohol involvement as the determinants of absenteeism. Based on self-report measures of absence frequency, significant positive direct effects of kinship responsibility, organizational permissiveness, role ambiguity and alcohol involvement, and negative direct effects of centralization, pay and job satisfaction yielded an R² for absenteeism of 21.6. Job satisfaction completely mediated the effects of routinization and work involvement, and partially mediated the effects of centralization and role ambiguity.     

Weighting of contingency information in causal judgement: Evidence of hypothesis dependence and use of a positive-test strategy

Contingency is an important cue to causation. Research shows that people unequally weight the cells of a 2 × 2 contingency table as follows: cause-present/effect-present (A) > cause-present/effect-absent (B) > cause-absent/effect-present (C) > cause-absent/effect-absent (D). Although some models of causal judgement can accommodate that fact, most of them assume that the weighting of information is invariant as a function of whether one is assessing a hypothesized generative versus preventive relationship. An experiment was conducted that tested the hypothesis-independence assumption against the predictions of a novel weighted-positive-test-strategy account, which predicts hypothesis dependence in cell weighting. Supporting that account, judgements of hypothesized generative causes showed the standard A > B > C > D inequality, but judgements of hypothesized preventive causes showed the predicted B > A > D > C inequality. The findings reveal that cell weighting in causal judgement is both unequal and hypothesis dependent.     

Bayesian networks as models of human judgement under uncertainty: The role of causal assumptions in belief updating

Zusammenfassung. Bei der Modellierung der Revision von Überzeugungsstärken wurde in der Vergangenheit die Bedeutung bestehender Annahmen über eine Wissensdomäne für die Evaluation neuer Information vernachlässigt. Im Gegensatz dazu wird in der vorliegenden Arbeit ein Ansatz auf der Basis Bayesscher Netze vorgeschlagen, der eine Einbeziehung subjektiver Annahmen über kausale Zusammenhänge von Ereignissen in einer Domäne erlaubt. Ziel dieser Untersuchung ist es zu überprüfen, ob Urteiler die kausale Rolle einer neuen Evidenz in ihr Revisionsurteil einbeziehen und inwieweit Bayessche Netze geeignet sind, die relevanten Determinanten der Einbeziehung zu beschreiben. Es werden Daten aus zwei Experimenten und Vergleiche mit den Vorhersagen eines Bayesschen Netzes vorgestellt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß das verwendete Bayessche Netz die Urteile von Probanden nicht nur gut, sondern auch besser als zwei alternative Modelle vorhersagt. Mögliche Konsequenzen für die Bewertung der Rationalität menschlicher Urteilsprozesse werden diskutiert. Summary. In modeling processes that underlie the updating of degrees of belief, researchers have often neglected the role of subjects' assumptions concerning causal relationships between new information and contextual variables in a specific domain of reasoning. In contrast, this paper presents a modeling approach which, based on the theory of Bayesian networks, takes into account subjects' beliefs about specific causes and effects in the domain and specifies in which way these beliefs constrain the evaluation of new information. Data from two experiments are described. The experiments were designed to test whether subjects take into account causal relationships as described by a Bayesian network. The results show that the Bayesian network predicts subjects' updates quite precisely and more accurately than two other models. Implications for the appraisal of human rationality in judgement and decision making are discussed.