条件推理:“演绎”与“概率”两种实验研究范式之比较

本研究通过推理心理学研究中的“演绎”和“概率”两种实验范式设计对同一个班级的大学生参与者(实验一中N=57,实验二中N=43)进行先后两次有关条件推理的实验研究后,得出如下主要结果:(1)推理者在对不同的“纯形式条件命题本身的认可度”以及对由它们各自建构的同类型推理题的推理结果之间的作答反应模式之间的差异都很小且具有较高的一致性;(2)对由不同的“含具体内容的假言命题”本身的认可度之间以及由它们建构的同类型条件推理题的推理结果之间具有较大的差异性;(3)推理者对“演绎”和“概率”两种不同实验范式分别建构的内容近似的推进题进行推理时具有大致相同的作答反应趋势。由此可以推论推理者在“概率推理实验范式”中的作答或推理结果可以被视为只是对“演绎推理实验范式”的相应推理题给出“概率解”的心理加工过程。     

材料情绪性对条件推理影响的眼动研究

以大学生为被试,采用不同情绪效价的条件命题作为实验材料,运用眼动仪器记录被试进行条件推理的过程和结果,探讨了材料情绪性对条件推理的影响状况.实验采用3(材料情绪性:正性情绪、负性情绪、中性情绪)×4(推理形式:MP、DA、AC、MT)的重复测量实验设计.研究结果发现,正性和负性情绪材料的条件推理成绩显著地低于中性情绪材料,结果支持抑制假说.     

命题内容对青少年条件推理的影响

选取3个具体内容的条件命题作为实验材料,以小四、初一、高一、大三的学生为被试,探讨了命题内容对青少年条件推理的影响机制及其发展特点。结果表明:(1)对同一年级而言,不同内容的条件命题的相同推理(MP、MT、DA、AC)之间表现出显著的差异;对不同年级而言,相同内容的条件命题的四种推理之间也存在显著的差异。(2)青少年的条件推理过程似乎是一种基于对事件发生概率估计的直觉判断,这一判断过程主要取决于个体知识经验的增长和主体认知水平的提高,而用形式逻辑的标准来衡量个体条件推理能力的高低似乎并不妥当。     

条件推理与概率判断

选取6个具体内容的条件命题和1个纯形式的条件命题作为实验材料,以大学生为被试,深入探讨了条件推理的认知加工机制。结果发现,大学生被试对四种推理形式的认可程度主要与范畴前提的概率值成正比,条件推理似乎是一种基于概率判断的直觉而高效的认知加工过程,进一步证实了Oaksford（2000）以及Evans（2003）等人的观点。     

论述理解中逻辑有效与逻辑无效条件推理的研究

句法理论和心理模型理论是解释论述理解中逻辑有效 (如MP)与逻辑无效 (如AC)条件推理机制的两种不同观点。本研究通过两项实验旨在对这两种理论加以检测。实验要求被试阅读遵循MP或AC形式的故事后对故事结论的正确性做出判断。结果表明 ,在论述理解中 ,条件前提的语义联系强度影响MP推理 ;深思熟虑对MP和AC推理均产生影响。研究结果支持心理模型理论。     

条件推理的集合映射模型再探

把条件推理命题作为一种观点置入一种具体的情境中[1],考察了"自己"与"作者"两种不同立场下,说服、劝阻与中性三种效价下的命题后件以及个体持有的内隐观点对大学生被试推理结果的影响.实验结果表明:(1)对大前提的语义表征取决于个体所持有的内隐观点.(2)就说服与劝阻两种效价而言,人类的思维绝不是简单的对于积极的结果表现出"趋向",对消极的结果表现出"回避".(3)就两种立场而言,在作者的立场下,并没有得到更符合逻辑的推理结果,因此双加工理论还存在着不足.     

复合命题推理能力相关影响因素的实证研究

本研究由两个实验组成,探讨了影响9-11岁的儿童,少年和成年人的复合命题推理能力发展的相关因素,主要有格式类型、性别、材料性质等因素.结果表明:小同的格式类型、性别对被试的复合命题推理能力有着碌著的影响.而材料性质对被试的复合命题推理能力的影响体现在阶段性上,它只对儿童阶段的被试有影响,而对少年阶段和成年阶段的被试影响却不大.     

概率的不同表征对贝叶斯推理的影响的研究

该研究以贝叶斯推算、判断为实验任务,探讨了三种概率表征(百分比、自然频率、概率词)、三种概率规则认识水平对贝叶斯推理的影响,结果表明:1)概率词表征的贝叶斯推算实质是判断过程。2)在三种概率表征中,频率表征更适合于正确完成贝叶斯推理,但存在学科背景的差异。3)贝叶斯推理使用的策略有正确规则、错误规则、命题知识、概率简捷式、直觉和个人意愿六种。4)贝叶斯判断的正确率高于贝叶斯推算,个体在贝叶斯判断上使用的正确规则多于贝叶斯推算过程。     

中外两种推理理论的实验比较研究

通过两个实验对中国学者提出的“推理题与推理者的推理知识双重结构模型”和Evans提出的“双重加工理论”进行了实验比较研究。实验一通过两种评定方法对相应性质命题进行评定后所得实验结果表明Evans等(1983)有关“信念效应”研究中的“结论可信性”变量可以视为与胡竹菁等(1996)实验中的“内容正确性”变量是同一性质的变量; 实验二根据“形式正确性”和“内容正确性”两个自变量设计的推理实验结果与Evans等(1983)的研究结果基本一致; 但增加“内容熟悉性”这一自变量设计的推理实验结果表明“推理题与推理者的推理知识双重结构模型”比Evans提出的“双重加工理论”能更好地解释推理者对性质三段论的推理结果。     

基于非逻辑机制的条件推理模式：P—Q映射模型及其实证检验

研究结合数学分析方法,提出了基于非逻辑机制的条件推理模型：P-Q映射模型。并根据这个模型,对人们在不同命题类型奈件下的推理行为进行了预测。预测结果显示,当推理前提为LH和HL型命题时,基于P-Q映射模型的预测结果与基于条件概率模型的预测结果完全一致。但当推理前提为LL和HH型命题时,两种模型给出的预测结果存在差异。实验结果表明,当前提命题为LL和HH型命题时,被试的条件推理行为与P-Q映射模型的预言完全一致。     

Sharing and Confronting Propositions in Collaborative Inquiry Learning

This study investigates how collaborative knowledge construction within an inquiry learning environment can be assisted with scaffolds that aim to support students' hypothesis generation process. Sixty-six students on a university preparatory track worked collaboratively on a kinematics task. The instructional goal was to develop students' understanding of one-dimensional kinematics. All students completed a proposition test in which they indicated their individual opinions about the truth-value of specific propositions. Subsequently, students were coupled into dyads and assigned to one of three conditions: (a) a shared proposition scratchpad (expression builder), (b) a shared proposition table, and (c) a control condition. Students in the scratchpad condition were given an expression builder consisting of dropdown menus with pre-defined variables and relations. Students in the shared proposition table condition could combine individual opinions about the truth-value of a proposition into one shared proposition table that highlighted differences in opinion. Students in the control condition received no extra support related to propositions. Learning outcomes were assessed using a variety of pre- and posttests. The findings indicate that students supported with the shared proposition table showed significant gains for qualitative knowledge about relations. The number of unique propositions students discussed during the learning session was a significant predictor of learning gains. A more detailed analysis of students' interaction protocols suggests that students differed in their task perceptions, their interaction patterns, and their use of prior knowledge.     

篇章阅读中影响回指推理的因素

探讨回指距离、干扰词的精细描述、干扰词的典型性对回指推理的影响。包括2个实验,164名大学生被试。实验1探讨干扰词精细描述类型的影响。结果表明,干扰的精细描述并非是影响回指推理的主要因素。实验2探讨干扰词和先行词的典型性类型的相对变化的影响。结果表明高典型干扰在不同回指距离条件下都会对回指推理产生影响。从而表明高典型的干扰项干扰了回指推理发生。     

The use of drawings as concrete referents in conditional reasoning problems

A mixed group containing university students, mostly studying mathematics, and some senior school pupils took two paper‐and‐pencil conditional reasoning tests in varying order with a one‐week interval between the tests. One test consisted of five problems presented entirely in written form. The second test took one of two forms, both identical to the first test except that in the first form inessential drawings were added to the presentation of four of the problems and in the second form drawings, which acted as concrete referents and were essential, were added to the same four problems. Irrespective of the order of testing, subjects' performance on the problems with drawings used as concrete referents was significantly worse than on the corresponding problems presented in written form. Furthermore, the results of the initial testing session showed the school group performed significantly worse on both the form of test with inessential drawings and the form with concrete referents than on the written form. In addition, a group of students with recent training in reasoning significantly outperformed all others. Finally, negative conclusion bias was only observed for the Modus Tollens inference. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

To link, to infer, to understand

A model of linkage in text processing is proposed: An external proposition and an inference belonging to one frame are superimposed to constitute understanding. A text containing four academic subjects was presented orally to students who recalled it in writing. After transforming the recalls into propositions they are entered into a nonmetric multidimensional scaling to yield a text space. The subjects' interest choices among items of the four aspects are scaled to render an interest space. The decomposition ob both as subspaces of a common space yields an angle as their overall similarity and indicates the degree of predictability from interests. As the aggregate of inferences shows directedness, correlated with volitional-motivational orientation, and inference base is assumed to intervene. It is concluded that recipients try to superimpose and thereby construct a primary stage of processing. This allows for a very general algorithm of parallel information processing (holographic thesis), perhaps constructing the properties we are used to. Motivated perception, knowledge influence, schema-directedness and contribution to coherence are rivalled out as an explanation of this process.     

自我监控对大学生社会回避及苦恼的影响

目的了解自我监控对大学生社会回避和苦恼的影响。方法对282名大学生施测了自我监控量表和社会回避与苦恼量表,根据自我监控量表分,把被试分为四组。结果高自我监控大学生组的社交回避及苦恼得分显著低于其他三组。结论自我监控对大学生社会回避与苦恼有显著影响。     

加工速度对晚期第二语言学习者句法加工的影响

两个实验通过操纵句子呈现的速度,考察加工速度因素对于晚期第二语言学习者句法加工的影响。实验1采用视觉方式呈现句子,实验2采用听觉方式呈现句子。被试的母语为汉语,第二语言为英语,属于晚期第二语言学习者,实验任务为句法判断。两个实验的结果表明,加工速度缓慢是导致晚期第二语言学习者句法加工困难的重要因素之一。加工速度缓慢对第二语言句法加工的影响,不是局限于少数一两种句法形式,而是作用于多数句法形式。研究还发现,视觉和听觉两种呈现方式下,不同句法形式的加工难度既存在共性的一面,也存在差异性的一面。     

社会转型时期大学生的价值优先性

本研究以Schwartz开发的价值观量表(SVS)为工具,以北京地区1077位大学生为被试,运用结构方程模型、方差分析等方法考察社会变迁背景下大学生价值观的内容和结构。研究结果发现(1)大学生价值观由4类高阶价值和10类基本价值构成,在总体结构上不存在性别差异。(2)大学生的价值优先性呈现出三个基本特征:价值取向多元、利益指向多元、现实性。鉴于对研究局限的认识,本研究亦对后续研究方向提出建议。     

Efficiency of retrieval correlates with "logical" reasoning from causal conditional premises

In two experiments, we examined the prediction that there should be a relation between the speed with which subjects can retrieve potential causes for given effects and their reasoning with causal conditional premises (if cause P, then effect Q). It was also predicted that when subjects are given effects for which there exists a single strongly associated cause, speed of retrieval of a second potential cause should be particularly related to reasoning with invalid logical forms--namely, affirmation of the consequent and denial of the antecedent. In the first experiment, 49 university students were given both retrieval tasks and conditional reasoning problems. The results were generally consistent with the predictions. The second experiment, involving 57 university students, replicated the first, with some methodological variations. The results were also consistent with the predictions. An analysis of the combined results of the two experiments indicated that individual differences in efficiency of retrieval of information from long-term memory did predict performance on the invalid logical forms in the predicted ways. These results strongly support a retrieval model for conditional reasoning with causal premises.     

创业警觉性、既有知识、创业经历对大学生创业机会识别的影响

采用“新手—创业经验丰富者” 对比范式,分别以114名在校无创业经历大学生和94名创业大学生作为被试,通过不同被试对自编复杂机会情景的反应搜集其对机会识别的表现,同时探讨了大学生创业警觉性、既有知识对创业机会识别的影响。结果表明：两类大学生创业警觉性、既有知识差异显著,创业大学生明显好于一般大学生。两类大学生在创业警觉性的三个维度以及既有知识的两个维度上均存在显著性差异,创业大学生均显著优于于一般大学生。创业大学生既有知识对机会识别具有显著影响;一般大学生创业警觉性对机会识别具有显著影响。此外,大学生既有知识可能通过警觉性影响机会识别。     

聋生汉字加工的自由回忆与词序位置记忆实验研究

本研究采用韵母相同、声母相同、音异形似和音同形似四类汉字字组,对使用手语聋生、使用口语聋生和听力正常大学生进行了自由回忆和词序位置记忆两个实验。结果表明,聋生不论在汉字字组的自由回忆中还是在汉字次序信息的记忆中,对汉字的记忆效果不仅都与字组类型有关,而且都受到了语音干扰,存在语音混淆现象。这就证明,聋生在汉字加工过程中使用了语音编码,语音编码在聋生汉字加工过程中确实起到了非常重要的作用。