模糊规避的形成机制：基于可评价性假设的视角

模糊规避是指在相同奖赏的情况下,决策者会力图规避从主观上判断具有模糊概率的事件而偏好具有相同精确概率的事件。本研究使用同时评价、单独评价的研究范式从随机事件和自然事件两个领域来探讨模糊规避的形成机制。研究结果表明,当风险事件和模糊事件同时评价时,个体倾向于模糊规避;当风险事件和模糊事件单独评价时,模糊规避会消失。     

Managers' variance investigation decisions: an experimental examination of probabilistic and outcome ambiguity

Information ambiguity is prevalent in organizations and may influence management decisions. This study examines, given imprecise probabilities or outcomes, how managers decide which department's performance to investigate further when they are provided with performance benchmarks expressed in numerical intervals. Seventy‐nine MBA students participated in two experiments involving investigation decisions. We presented participants with interval benchmarks of a firm's expenses. Being below or above the benchmark should have been seen as equally negative. We found that, when facing outcome ambiguity, our participants consistently preferred to investigate further those departments whose performance was described as having an ambiguous outcome (when the outcome's range was centered either below or above the interval benchmark). However, when facing probabilistic ambiguity, there were two predominant choice patterns: consistently choosing to investigate the department whose performance is described with an ambiguous probability, or consistently choosing to investigate the department with unambiguous performance. To gain further insight, we conducted a follow‐up study collecting written protocols of participants' reasons for making choices involving ambiguous performance information. The results show that our participants displayed similar decision‐making processes when facing outcome ambiguity and probabilistic ambiguity. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Set ambiguity: A key determinant of reliability and validity in the picture story exercise

The picture story exercise (PSE), in which participants write imaginative stories in response to motivationally-arousing images, is the most commonly-used tool for the assessment of implicit motives. Despite decades of research into the qualities of effective individual picture cues, much less is known about the desirable properties of overall picture sets. The present research highlights a previously undocumented methodological consideration—set ambiguity—which has important implications for the reliability and validity of the PSE. In a four-part study of 74 undergraduates, motive scores derived from an ambiguous picture set comprising cues that vary in motivational focus displayed greater test–retest reliability, convergent validity, and predictive validity than those derived from an unambiguous picture set. Researchers are therefore advised to consider set ambiguity when selecting images for use in PSE research.     

I am a better driver than you think: examining self‐enhancement for driving ability

We examined whether people recognized that others might disagree with their high self‐assessments of driving ability, and, if so, why. Participants in four experiments expressed a belief that others would assess them as worse drivers than they assessed themselves. This difference appears to be caused by participants' use of their own, idiosyncratic definition of driving ability. In Experiments 2 and 3, participants reported that others would supply similar assessments of their ability when the skill was less ambiguous. Results of Experiment 4 indicate that participants recognize that there may be more than one way to view driving performance. Participants appear aware that others likely disagree with their self‐assessment of driving ability due to differences in how others define driving ability.     

On the ideology of hypodescent: Political conservatism predicts categorization of racially ambiguous faces as Black

According to the principle of hypodescent, multiracial individuals are categorized according to their most socially subordinate group membership. We investigated whether the tendency to apply this principle is related to political ideology. In three studies, participants categorized a series of morphed faces that varied in terms of racial ambiguity. In each study, self-reported conservatism (vs. liberalism) was associated with the tendency to categorize ambiguous faces as Black. Consistent with the notion that system justification motivation helps to explain ideological differences in racial categorization, the association between conservatism and hypodescent was mediated by individual differences in opposition to equality (Study 2) and was stronger when U.S. participants categorized American than Canadian faces (Study 3). We discuss ways in which the categorization of racially ambiguous individuals in terms of their most subordinate racial group may exacerbate inequality and vulnerability to discrimination.     

Effects of referential ambiguity,time constraints and addressee orientation on the production of morphologically complex words

In five experiments, participants were asked to describe unambiguously a target picture in a picture–picture paradigm. In the same-category condition, target (e.g., water bucket) and distractor picture (e.g., ice bucket) had identical names when their preferred, morphologically simple, name was used (e.g., bucket). The ensuing lexical ambiguity could be resolved by compound use (e.g., water bucket). Simple names sufficed as means of specification in other conditions, with distractors identical to the target, completely unrelated, or geometric figures. With standard timing parameters, participants produced mainly ambiguous answers in Experiment 1. An increase in available processing time hardly improved unambiguous responding (Experiment 2). A referential communication instruction (Experiment 3) increased the number of compound responses considerably, but morphologically simple answers still prevailed. Unambiguous responses outweighed ambiguous ones in Experiment 4, when timing parameters were further relaxed. Finally, the requirement to name both objects resulted in a nearly perfect ambiguity resolution (Experiment 5). Together, the results showed that speakers overcome lexical ambiguity only when time permits, when an addressee perspective is given and, most importantly, when their own speech overtly signals the ambiguity.     

Underspecification of syntactic ambiguities: Evidence from self-paced reading

Syntactically ambiguous sentences are sometimes read faster than disambiguated strings. Models of parsing have explained this tendency by appealing either to a race in the construction of alternative structures or to reanalysis. However, it is also possible that readers of ambiguous sentences save time by strategically underspecifying interpretations of ambiguous attachments. In a self-paced reading study, participants viewed sentences with relative clauses that could attach to one of two sites. Type of question was also manipulated between participants in order to test whether goals can influence reading/parsing strategies. The experiment revealed an ambiguity advantage in reading times, but only when participants expected superficial comprehension questions. When participants expected queries about relative clause interpretation, disambiguating regions were inspected with more care, and the ambiguity advantage was attenuated. However, even when participants expected relative clause queries, question-answering times suggested underspecified representations of ambiguous relative clause attachments. The results support the construal and "good-enough" models of parsing.     

Why do you like Arcimboldo’s portraits? Effect of perceptual style on aesthetic appreciation of ambiguous artworks

Visual aesthetic experience reflects the states of the mind and the brain when visual artworks are being viewed. In the present study, we investigated whether perceptual style affects the aesthetic appreciation of ambiguous artworks, such as those of Arcimboldo, which are characterized by part–whole ambiguity. Participants were classified as having a global or local perceptual style and were asked to aesthetically judge two different types of artworks: portraits by Arcimboldo and by Renaissance painters. We found that perceptual style affected both the aesthetic appreciation and the degree of perceived ambiguity in Arcimboldo’s artworks. Our findings suggest that aesthetic judgment is a consequence of the interaction between individual personal perceptual style and the perceptual features of artworks.     

Impact of regulatory focus on ambiguity aversion

Although prior research has shown that some people prefer a risky to an ambiguous option, this study further proposes that people's regulatory focus (promotion vs. prevention) might influence their ambiguity aversion. Three experiments have tested whether people with promotion focus showed less ambiguity aversion than those with prevention focus: The first experiment revealed that, compared with chronically promotion‐focused individuals, prevention‐focused subjects preferred a risky to an ambiguous option. In the second experiment, priming of the subjects' goal orientations led to similar results. Experiment 3 demonstrated that participants showed less ambiguity aversion for the expected performance of an investment product representative of promotion (e.g., a stock fund) rather than one representative of prevention (e.g., a bond fund). In other words, people showed less preference for a bond fund when the probability distribution of its expected performance was unknown than when it was known, whereas they showed less preference difference between known and unknown probability distributions for the expected performance of a stock fund. This study has integrated research pertaining to regulatory focus and ambiguity aversion, and the results have confirmed that the impact of regulatory focus on ambiguity aversion is robust across different methods and decision tasks. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Age-related variance in decisions under ambiguity is explained by changes in reasoning,executive functions,and decision-making under risk

Previous literature has explained older individuals’ disadvantageous decision-making under ambiguity in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) by reduced emotional warning signals preceding decisions. We argue that age-related reductions in IGT performance may also be explained by reductions in certain cognitive abilities (reasoning, executive functions). In 210 participants (18–86 years), we found that the age-related variance on IGT performance occurred only in the last 60 trials. The effect was mediated by cognitive abilities and their relation with decision-making performance under risk with explicit rules (Game of Dice Task). Thus, reductions in cognitive functions in older age may be associated with both a reduced ability to gain explicit insight into the rules of the ambiguous decision situation and with failure to choose the less risky options consequently after the rules have been understood explicitly. Previous literature may have underestimated the relevance of cognitive functions for age-related decline in decision-making performance under ambiguity.     

Ambiguous Loss in Transnational Families’ Adolescents: An Exploratory Study in Ecuador

In psychosocial migration literature, the perspective of ambiguous loss has been relevant to articulate personal and relational experiences in the context of transnational families and ongoing separation. Most studies have focused on adult members’ experiences of transnational families, but research exploring ambiguous loss in adolescents whose parents have migrated is still lacking. The present study aimed to explore adolescents’ lived experiences of parental migration. In a pilot explorative study, 14 adolescents with at least one parent who migrated were interviewed about their lived experiences of transnational parent-child relationships and ongoing parent-child separation. Data analysis identified four themes in participants’ accounts: practices of separation creating confusion; current relationship with migrant parents permeated by ambiguity; distrustful representations of migrant parents; and family and social dynamics reactivating the pain of loss. The findings reveal how in the context of parental migration, patterns of separation and ongoing relational processes, compounded by the uncertainty of reunification and an exclusionary social fabric, constitute core elements that shape adolescents’ lived experiences of parent-child relationships characterized by ambiguity.     

Task formats and ambiguity aversion

This paper proposes that task format (choosing or rejecting) moderates the effect of ambiguity aversion. Specifically, an ambiguous option is more attractive in a choosing task than in a rejecting task compared with a risky option. The author performed three experiments to test the propositions. In the first experiment, participants showed less ambiguity aversion when they had to choose a preferred option (risky or ambiguous) compared with when they had to reject an option they preferred less. In the second experiment with a monetary incentive, participants had to form a cash‐equivalent estimate for both a risky gamble and an ambiguous gamble in a traditional Ellsberg scenario. The ambiguous option emerged as more attractive than the risky option in the choosing task compared with the rejecting task. The third experiment showed that the participants' decision rationale mediated the effect of the task format on choice. These three experiments support the proposition that task formats moderate the effect of ambiguity aversion. On the basis of the findings, the author provides suggestions for practice and further research. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ambiguity attitudes in qualitative contexts: The role of prior beliefs

Most studies of ambiguity aversion rely on experimental paradigms involving monetary bets. Thus, the extent to which ambiguity aversion occurs outside of such contexts is much less understood, particularly when the situation cannot easily be reduced to numerical terms. The present work seeks to understand whether people prefer to avoid ambiguous decisions in a variety of different qualitative domains (e.g., work, family, love, friendship, exercise, study, and health), and, if so, to determine the role played by prior beliefs in those domains. Across three studies, we presented participants with 24 vignettes and measured the degree to which they preferred risk to ambiguity in each. We also asked them for their prior probability estimates about the likely outcomes in the ambiguous events. Ambiguity aversion was observed in the vast majority of vignettes, but at different magnitudes. It was predicted by whether the vignette involved gain or loss as well as by people's prior beliefs; however, the heterogeneity between people meant that the role of prior beliefs was only evident in an individual-level analysis (i.e., not at the group level). Our results suggest that the desire to avoid ambiguity occurs in a wide variety of qualitative contexts but to different degrees for different people and may be partially driven by unfavorable prior estimates of the likely outcomes of the ambiguous events.     

Ambiguous games: Evidence for strategic ambiguity aversion

The problem of ambiguity in games is discussed, and a class of ambiguous games is identified. A total of 195 participants played strategic-form games of various sizes with unidentified co-players. In each case, they first chose between a known-risk game involving a co-player indifferent between strategies and an equivalent ambiguous game involving one of several co-player types, each with a different dominant strategy, and then they chose a strategy for the preferred game. Half the players knew that the ambiguous co-player types were equally likely, and half did not. Half expected the outcomes to be known immediately, and half expected a week's delay. Known-risk games were generally preferred, confirming a significant strategic ambiguity aversion effect. In the delay conditions, players who knew that the ambiguous co-player types were equally likely were significantly less ambiguity averse than those who did not. Decision confidence was significantly higher in 2 × 2 than in larger games.     

模糊决策的情境依赖性

实验1采用艾尔斯伯格悖论的研究范式,探究被试对模糊的厌恶倾向以及在决策过程中所采用的决策策略。结果发现：被试对确定选项和模糊选项的选择存在差异;在肯定形式下倾向于确定选项,而在否定形式下则倾向于模糊选项,采用了利益最大化策略。实验2采用艾尔斯伯格悖论的变式,通过操纵概率和任务类型,发现：模糊决策具有情境依赖性,并非任何情况下个体都厌恶模糊。当风险选项不能满足自己的需要,即获胜机率比较小时,人们会偏向模糊选项。     

Ambiguous games: evidence for strategic ambiguity aversion

The problem of ambiguity in games is discussed, and a class of ambiguous games is identified. A total of 195 participants played strategic-form games of various sizes with unidentified co-players. In each case, they first chose between a known-risk game involving a co-player indifferent between strategies and an equivalent ambiguous game involving one of several co-player types, each with a different dominant strategy, and then they chose a strategy for the preferred game. Half the players knew that the ambiguous co-player types were equally likely, and half did not. Half expected the outcomes to be known immediately, and half expected a week's delay. Known-risk games were generally preferred, confirming a significant strategic ambiguity aversion effect. In the delay conditions, players who knew that the ambiguous co-player types were equally likely were significantly less ambiguity averse than those who did not. Decision confidence was significantly higher in 2 × 2 than in larger games.