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1.
Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes: numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably for all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects overconfidence during the course of the experiment.  相似文献   

2.
Recent research shows that in reasoning tasks, subjects usually produce an initial intuitive answer, accompanied by a metacognitive experience, which has been called feeling of rightness. This paper is aimed at exploring the complimentary experience of feeling of error (FOE), that is, the spontaneous, subtle sensation of cognitive uneasiness arising from conflict detection during thinking. We investigate FOE in two studies with the “bat-and-ball” (B&B) reasoning task, in its standard and isomorphic control versions. Study 1 is a generation study, in which participants are asked to generate their own response. Study 2 is an evaluation study, in which participants are asked to choose between two conflicting answers (normative vs. intuitive). In each study, the FOE is measured by the FOE questionnaire. Results show that the FOE is significantly present in the standard B&B task when participants give a wrong answer, that our questionnaire can measure it, and furthermore, that it is diagnostic of genuine error.  相似文献   

3.
One of the most widely used methods for probability encoding in decision analysis uses binary comparisons (choices) between two lotteries: one that depends on the values of the random variable of interest and another that is contingent on an external reference chance device (typically a probability wheel). This note investigates the degree to which differences in probability weighting functions between the two types of events could affect the practice of subjective probability encoding. We develop a general methodology to investigate this question and illustrate it with two popular probability weighting functions over the range of parameters reported in the literature. We use this methodology to (a) alert decision analysts and researchers to the possibility of reversals, (b) identify the circumstances under which overt preferences for one lottery over the other are not affected by the weighting function, (c) document the magnitude of the differences between choices based on probabilities and their corresponding weighting functions, and (d) offer practical recommendations for probability elicitation.  相似文献   

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In this study we compare the probability judgment accuracy of subjects from the United States and Turkey. Three different response modes were employed — numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. The questions employed in the study were restricted to two-alternative, general-knowledge items. The observed pattern of differences in the components of probability judgment accuracy paralleled those of studies that have compared Western and Asian subjects. In particular, Turkish subjects exhibited better discrimination but worse calibration than their US counterparts. This result persisted across all three response modes. These findings lend support to previous assertions that observed cross-national differences arise from socioeconomic rather than Asian versus Western cultural differences. However, the consistency of the observed differences across response modes refutes a previous assertion that observed cultural differences are merely the result of response bias.  相似文献   

6.
    
When consumers mentally unpack (i.e., imagine) the reasons for product failure, their probability judgments of future product failures are higher than when no mental unpacking is undertaken. However, increasing the level of mental unpacking does not lead to monotonically increasing effects on probability judgments but results in inverted U-shaped relationships. Using a two-factor structure, we propose that when consumers undertake mental unpacking, there will be two conflicting processes; while imagining causes for an event will lead to greater perceived probability, the greater difficulty in generating reasons for an event will lead to lower perceived probability.  相似文献   

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Prior definitions and empirical research do not distinguish responses to transgressions driven by feelings of revenge from responses to transgressions driven by feelings of anger. We used autobiographical recalls to examine differences between vengeful and anger-driven responses. Our findings revealed that vengeful responses are not the same as anger-driven responses. Compared to anger-driven responses, vengeful responses resulted more from offences that induce a self-threat, which elicited more intense negative self-conscious emotions and more rumination. Moreover, compared to anger-driven responses, vengeful responses consisted more of behaviours that induced a self-threat to the other person, were motivated more by intrapersonal goals, were more delayed, elicited more positive emotions and resulted in less relationship restoration. Together, these findings suggest that more so than anger-driven responses, vengeance is self-focused.  相似文献   

10.
A new foundation is presented for the theory of subjective judgments of probability known in the psychological literature as “Support Theory”. It is based on new complementation operations that, unlike those of classical probability theory (set-theoretic complementation) and classical logic (negation), need not satisfy the principles of the Law of The Excluded Middle and the Law of Double Complementation. Interrelationships between the new complementation operations and the Kahneman and Tversky judgmental heuristic of availability are described.  相似文献   

11.
We examined effects of self-affirmation on feelings of vulnerability and behavioral intentions following exposure to personally threatening messages varying in message strength. In Experiment 1, female alcohol consumers read a strong message linking alcohol to breast cancer risk. Self-affirmed participants exhibited higher feelings of vulnerability concerning consumption levels and personal risk. In Experiment 2, female caffeine consumers read a weak or strong message linking caffeine to breast disease. Self-affirmed participants reported greater feelings of vulnerability to breast disease and greater intentions to reduce caffeine consumption (relative to control participants) only when reading the strong message. Effects on intentions were mediated by effects on feelings of vulnerability. These studies show that feelings of vulnerability can mediate effects of self-affirmation on intentions to change behavior under threat, although only in the presence of strong messages.  相似文献   

12.
A 30-day diary study examined the relations among trait self-esteem, negative romantic relationship interactions, and alcohol consumption. Multilevel analyses revealed that people with low trait self-esteem (compared with people with high trait self-esteem) drank more on days when they experienced more negative relationship interactions with their romantic partners. In addition, daily increases in state self-esteem buffered people with low trait self-esteem from the desire to drink in response to negative romantic relationship interactions. In contrast, participants with high and low self-esteem both decreased their drinking in response to negative non-romantic relationship events, but people with low self-esteem decreased their drinking less. These findings suggest that people with low trait self-esteem may drink as a way to regulate unfulfilled needs for acceptance.  相似文献   

13.
A 30-day daily diary study examined the relations among implicit self-esteem, interpersonal interactions, and alcohol consumption in college students. Multilevel analyses revealed that students with low implicit self-esteem drank more on days when they experienced more negative interpersonal interactions. In contrast, students with high implicit self-esteem drank more on days when they experienced more positive interpersonal interactions. Spending time with people who were drinking mediated both the low implicit self-esteem by negative interpersonal events interaction and the high implicit self-esteem by positive interpersonal events interaction. These findings suggest that people with low implicit self-esteem may unintentionally drink as a way to regulate unfulfilled needs for acceptance. On the other hand, people with high implicit self-esteem may drink as a way to enhance positive interpersonal experiences.  相似文献   

14.
The term “emotion” is not precise. It refers to an assemblage of processes that contribute to how we relate to the social and physical world. We need to understand the functional bases of such processes, and one such basis is action readiness. Action readiness is the preparation for movement or action. Preparation for movement occurs in all animals. In more recently evolved species, such as birds and mammals, preparation for directed action is found as well. Action readiness is the basis for the states we now call emotions, but its importance goes far beyond emotions: action readiness is an elementary aspect of the way autonomous living beings regulate their interactions with the world.  相似文献   

15.
《论语》:一种可能的情感解读   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
在面对三代经礼文化日益衰颓的社会情势时,孔子开始向人之内在情感领域发掘道德实践的理据。这种发掘,一方面使他实现了对传统礼乐的改造,一方面则凿通了经由内在真实情感的抉发而走向儒家性情论伦理思想的义理道路。这种人本主义的情感关怀和情感诉求,渗透于孔子诠释道德要目与道德行为、论《诗》、论乐的诸多言论之中。因此,可以毫不夸张地说,《论语》是一部未言“情”字(“情感”义)而又处处关“情”的著作。  相似文献   

16.
To further investigate claims of a relationship between autism and schizophrenia, the current study examined the associations between specific dimensions of autistic-like and schizotypy traits. These traits were assessed using the Autism Spectrum Quotient and the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experiences. After using factor analysis to explore the dimensions of autistic-like and schizotypy traits represented in these measures in two separate groups of students (N1 = 362, N2 = 639), the relationships between these dimensions were examined. While the results are consistent with suggestions in the literature of an overlap in the interpersonal deficits associated with autism and schizophrenia, they offer little support for Crespi and Badcock’s (2008) claim that autism and positive schizophrenia are diametrically opposed disorders.  相似文献   

17.
《Psychologie Fran?aise》2016,61(3):219-234
A context–process–outcomes model was proposed to examined the effect of a variety of factors associated with divorce on post-divorce coparental relationship in a sample of joint physical custody parents with children aged between 4 years and 12 years old (50–50) (n = 38). Parents completed questionnaires evaluating quality of coparental relationship. This variable is analyzed through 2 indicators: the parenting alliance and the hostility. The results revealed that attachment between former spouses and the kind of legal decision emerged as significant predictors of coparental relationship. Contrary to our initial hypothesis, higher level of preoccupation was found to predict more supportive parental alliance. Implications for research and intervention are discussed.  相似文献   

18.
    
Philosophers and psychologists have experimentally explored various aspects of people's understandings of subjective experience based on their responses to questions about whether robots “see red” or “feel frustrated,” but the intelligibility of such questions may well presuppose that people understand robots as experiencers in the first place. Departing from the standard approach, I develop an experimental framework that distinguishes between “phenomenal consciousness” as it is applied to a subject (an experiencer) and to an (experiential) mental state and experimentally test folk understandings of both subjective experience and experiencers. My findings (1) reveal limitations in experimental approaches using “artificial experiencers” like robots, (2) indicate that the standard philosophical conception of subjective experience in terms of qualia is distinct from that of the folk, and (3) show that folk intuitions do support a conception of qualia that departs from the philosophical conception in that it is physical rather than metaphysical. These findings have implications for the “hard problem” of consciousness.  相似文献   

19.
Guy Politzer 《Topoi》2009,28(1):81-85
I take up the four issues considered by Johnson-Laird, Byrne and Girotto in their reply to Politzer (2007). Based on the conceptual clarification which they adduce, it seems that the disagreement can be settled about the first one (truth functionality) and can be attenuated about the second one (the paradoxes of material implication). However, I maintain and refine my criticisms on the last two (negation and the probability of conditionals), backed up by considerations borrowed from the perspective of the conditional probability semantics for conditionals.  相似文献   

20.
The evaluation of the urban quality of life has been an important aspect of the research concerning the contemporary city and an increasingly support to urban planning and management. As part of a project to monitor the quality of life in the city of Porto, a survey of the resident population was conducted in order to study the citizens’ perceptions of their local quality of life and its evolution in recent years. The opinions of individuals on their level of satisfaction with various fields of the urban quality of life are systematised, as well as their integrated assessment. This analysis is complemented by a multivariate analysis that allows the grouping of the interviewees in large homogenous groups and their social and economic characterisation. Based on the results achieved, we try to highlight the usefulness of the qualitative analysis of the quality of life to support the definition of urban policies.
Luis Delfim SantosEmail:
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