Linking serial residential burglary: comparing the utility of modus operandi behaviours,geographical proximity,and temporal proximity

Whilst case linkage is used with serious forms of serial crime (e.g. rape and murder), the potential exists for it to be used with volume crime. This study replicates and extends previous research on the behavioural linking of burglaries. One hundred and sixty solved residential burglaries were sampled from a British police force. From these, 80 linked crime pairs (committed by the same serial offender) and 80 unlinked crime pairs (committed by two different serial offenders) were created. Following the methodology used by previous researchers, the behavioural similarity, geographical proximity, and temporal proximity of linked crime pairs were compared with those of unlinked crime pairs. Geographical and temporal proximity possessed a high degree of predictive accuracy in distinguishing linked from unlinked pairs as assessed by logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses. Comparatively, other traditional modus operandi behaviours showed less potential for linkage. Whilst personality psychology literature has suggested we might expect to find a relationship between temporal proximity and behavioural consistency, such a relationship was not observed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linking Crimes Using Behavioural Clues: Current Levels of Linking Accuracy and Strategies for Moving Forward

The number of published studies examining crime linkage analysis has grown rapidly over the last decade, to the point where a special issue of this journal has recently been dedicated to the topic. Many of these studies have used a particular measure (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, or the AUC) to quantify the degree to which it is possible to link crimes. This article reviews studies that have utilised the AUC and examines how good we are currently at linking crimes (within the context of these research studies) and what factors impact linking accuracy. The results of the review suggest that, in the majority of cases, moderate levels of linking accuracy are achieved. Of the various factors that have been examined that might impact linking accuracy, the three factors that appear to have the most significant impact are crime type, behavioural domain, and jurisdiction. We discuss how generalisable these results are to naturalistic investigative settings. We also highlight some of the important limitations of the linking studies that we reviewed and offer up some strategies for moving this area of research forward. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

From marine ecology to crime analysis: Improving the detection of serial sexual offences using a taxonomic similarity measure

Jaccard has been the choice similarity metric in ecology and forensic psychology for comparison of sites or offences, by species or behaviour. This paper applies a more powerful hierarchical measure—taxonomic similarity (Δ_s), recently developed in marine ecology—to the task of behaviourally linking serial crime. Forensic case linkage attempts to identify behaviourally similar offences committed by the same unknown perpetrator (called linked offences). Δ_s considers progressively higher‐level taxa, such that two sites show some similarity even without shared species. We apply this index by analysing 55 specific offence behaviours classified hierarchically. The behaviours are taken from 16 sexual offences by seven juveniles where each offender committed two or more offences. We demonstrate that both Jaccard and Δ_s show linked offences to be significantly more similar than unlinked offences. With up to 20% of the specific behaviours removed in simulations, Δ_s is equally or more effective at distinguishing linked offences than where Jaccard uses a full data set. Moreover, Δ_s retains significant difference between linked and unlinked pairs, with up to 50% of the specific behaviours removed. As police decision‐making often depends upon incomplete data, Δ_s has clear advantages and its application may extend to other crime types. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A qualitative analysis of mock jurors' deliberations of linkage analysis evidence

Evidence about a suspect's behavioural similarity across a series of crimes has been presented in legal proceedings in at least three different countries. Its admission as expert evidence, whilst still rare, is becoming more common thus it is important for us to understand how such evidence is received by jurors and legal professionals. This article reports on a qualitative analysis of mock jurors' deliberations about expert linkage analysis evidence. Three groups of mock jurors (N = 20) were presented with the prosecution's linkage analysis evidence from the USA State v. Fortin I murder trial and expert evidence for the defence constructed for the purposes of the study. Each group was asked to deliberate and reach a verdict. Deliberations were video‐recorded and subject to thematic content analysis. The themes that emerged were varied. Analysis suggested that the mock jurors were cautious of the expert evidence of behavioural similarity. In some cases they were sceptical of the expert. They articulated a preference that expert opinion be supported using statistics. Additional themes included jurors having misconceptions concerning what is typical offender behaviour during rape which suggests there is a need for expert linkage analysis evidence regarding behavioural similarities and the relative frequencies of crime scene behaviours. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linking property crime using offender crime scene behaviour: A comparison of methods

This study compared the ability of seven statistical models to distinguish between linked and unlinked crimes. The seven models utilised geographical, temporal, and modus operandi information relating to residential burglaries (n = 180), commercial robberies, (n = 118), and car thefts (n = 376). Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis and by examining the success with which the seven models could successfully prioritise linked over unlinked crimes. The regression‐based and probabilistic models achieved comparable accuracy and were generally more accurate than the tree‐based models tested in this study. The Logistic algorithm achieved the highest area under the curve (AUC) for residential burglary (AUC = 0.903) and commercial robbery (AUC = 0.830) and the SimpleLogistic algorithm achieving the highest for car theft (AUC = 0.820). The findings also indicated that discrimination accuracy is maximised (in some situations) if behavioural domains are utilised rather than individual crime scene behaviours and that the AUC should not be used as the sole measure of accuracy in behavioural crime linkage research.     

Exploring Directional Consistency in Offending: The Case of Residential Burglary in The Hague

Many aspects of human behaviour are remarkably stable across times, places and situations. Repetition and predictability also characterises our geographical behaviour. Prior research has confirmed that criminal behaviour is no exception. Offenders tend to recidivate, and recidivists tend to be behaviourally consistent in many aspects, including geographical ones. The present study assesses directional consistency in offending. It reviews the literature on directional consistency. It proposes an improved measure of directional consistency, and empirically uses this measure to explore directional consistency amongst a set of 268 burglars in The Hague. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The consistency of inconsistency in serial homicide: patterns of behavioural change across series

Linkage analysis is a crucial part of the investigative process when faced with a possible series of related offences. Establishing behavioural consistency (i.e., offender's behaviours consistently present across the series) is at the core of linkage. Recent empirical studies have found little evidence of consistency looking at either individual or groups of behaviours in serial homicide. It is argued that behavioural changes are rooted in the changing cognitive strategies that offenders use to reach their ultimate goal (i.e. the commission of multiple homicides). Factors that could account for these changes include learning, situational factors, loss of control, and changes in the offender's fantasy. Patterns of behavioural change have been identified in serial crimes, such as rape. However, no empirical studies have looked at patterns of behavioural change in serial homicide. The present study examined patterns of consistency and change using a combination of thematic and behavioural subgroup approaches that use Multidimensional Scaling. Thematic differentiation indicative of behavioural manifestations of cognitive strategies was found in all three examined subgroups: planning, wounding, and offender–victim interaction, and patterns of change within these subgroups provided support for the above theories. Looking at behavioural patterns rather than individual behaviours, may be a more fruitful way of examining consistency in serial homicide, and could have significant implications for linkage analysis. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Menstruation and crime: A critical review of the literature from the clinical criminology perspective

The authors review the literature on the relationship between menstruation and crime, focusing upon the methodological limitations of these studies in the broader context of criminological and menstruation research. Based on this review, they conclude: the present state of scientific knowledge is such that it is unknown whether there is an association between any phases of the menstrual cycle and crime; there is no evidence linking fluctuations in reproductive hormones to criminal behavior; and, this lack of scientific knowledge is so glaring that evidence regarding menstruation and crime should not be admissible in criminal trials.     

A predictive model for psychological reactions to crime in Italy: an analysis of fear of crime and concern about crime as a social problem

In this study a model for predicting fear of crime (FC) and concern about crime as a social problem (CC) in Italy has been built, using three sets of independent variables concerning: (a) the sociodemographic and criminal victimization domain; (b) the psychosocial domain; and (c) the mass media. A secondary analysis on data gathered by the Observatory of the North‐West (N = 3262, a mail panel that is representative of the Italian population over 18) has been performed. Results showed that FC and CC are related yet distinct constructs: FC is less widespread than CC, and has different predictors. FC predictors are sociodemographic, psychosocial and, above all, victimization variables; whereas mass media and psychosocial variables predict CC. Results were compared with the literature on the topic. Implications, limitations, and future directions are discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The use of a linkage analysis as evidence in the conviction of the Newcastle serial murderer,South Africa

The linking of a series of crimes to one individual has always been problematic, especially in the absence of eyewitness or forensic evidence. During the investigation, another means whereby this can be done is through linkage analysis. Yet a linkage analysis can also play a role during the trial of a serial offender. This paper examines the use of a linkage analysis report as evidence during the trial of the Newcastle serial murderer in South Africa. The linkage analysis examined the circumstances of the crime, modus operandi, and signature behaviour of the offender, to come to the conclusion that all the offences were committed by one individual, despite the lack of eyewitness or forensic evidence linking the suspect to two of the four incidents. This evidence was admitted by the court and the presiding officer concurred that the accused was guilty of committing the crimes during the third and fourth incidents. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Community engagement,greening, and violent crime: A test of the greening hypothesis and Busy Streets

Researchers have documented that vacant lot greening can reduce community-level crime and violence. Busy Streets Theory (BST) suggests that residents who are involved in the greening process can help to improve physical environments and build social connections that deter crime and violence. Yet few researchers have explored how community engagement in the greening process may affect crime and violence outcomes. We applied BST to test the effects of community-engaged vacant lot greening compared to vacant lots that received either professional mowing or no treatment, on the density of violent crime around study lots. Using mixed effects regression models, we analyzed trends in violent crime density over the summer months from 2016 to 2018 at 2102 street segments in Youngstown, OH. These street segments fell within 150 meters of an intervention parcel that was classified as one of three conditions: community-engaged maintenance, professional mowing, or no treatment (control). We found that street segments in areas receiving community-engaged maintenance or professional mowing experienced greater declines in violent crime density than street segments in areas receiving no treatment, and more decline occurred in the community-engaged condition compared to the professional mow condition. Our findings support BST and suggest that community-engaged greening of vacant lots in postindustrial cities with a concentrated vacancy can reduce crime and violence.     

Linkage Analysis as Evidence in Court: A Thematic Analysis of Mock Juror Deliberations

Linkage analysis has, albeit occasionally, been presented in courts across the world as evidence that a series of offences possess behavioural similarities and distinctiveness from other offences, meaning they have probably been committed by the same individual. It is therefore imperative to ascertain how linkage analysis is regarded by juries within the context of deliberations. Three groups of participants (N = 22) eligible for jury duty in England and Wales viewed a simulated rape and murder trial derived from an actual South African case. Linkage analysis formed the sole evidence against the defendant in the two later offences, although DNA matches and eyewitness identifications of the defendant were present in the two earlier offences. Participant deliberations were recorded and subjected to thematic analysis. Five themes were discovered: behavioural consistencies and inconsistencies, physical versus case linkage evidence, barriers to admissibility, potential uses of linkage analysis, and dependence of lay knowledge. Jurors' over‐reliance on erroneous lay knowledge contributed to their conclusion that linkage analysis is, at present, unrepresentative evidence that cannot independently indicate a defendant's culpability. However, participants believed that linkage analysis could be a useful tool within investigations and, with further research evidence, in court in England and Wales. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Cattell Infant Intelligence Scale: A review of the literature

This paper provides a comprehensive review of the literature pertaining to the Cattell Infant Intelligence Scale. Test construction, reliability, and validity issues are discussed and comparisons are made with other similar infant development measures. Conclusions point out specific strengths and weaknesses of the Cattell. The paper then addresses changes which would be necessary to bring the Cattell in line with current psychometric standards. The paper also discusses concerns for the continued use of the current form of the Cattell in clinical practice.     

The protestant work ethic: A review of the psychological literature

Despite criticism of Weber's thesis concerning the Protestant Work Ethic (PWE) and the rise of Capitalism, few have challenged the specification of the behaviour patterns, goals and values of those adhering to this ethic. Whereas psychologists have not been very interested in the nature of the historical, political and sociological arguments concerning the PWE, they have devoted a great deal of research to its measurement and correlates. In this paper the concept of the PWE; the literature on the instruments devised to measure the PWE; studies on the relationship between the PWE and work and unemployment; as well as research on the PWE and individual differences is reviewed. Despite great heterogeneity in aims, methodology and instruments used in different studies, a coherent picture of PWE beliefs emerges. Finally an elaboration of a new perspective on PWE research is suggested.     

Employee self-esteem: A review of the literature

Theories and empirical findings about self-esteem derived from the work role and its activities are reviewed. First, self-esteem is defined and problems inherent in its measurement are discussed. Theoretical perspectives relating self-esteem to the work role and activities are then outlined. Problems of a methodological nature, common to most of the evidence, are highlighted prior to reviewing the intrinsic and extrinsic job characteristics which influence self-esteem. The evidence pertaining to the moderating effects of chronic global self-esteem on such relationships is incorporated. The attitudinal and behavioral correlates of high employee self-esteem are then presented, followed by the influence of chronic self-esteem level on occupational choice. Suggestions are made for future research in line with the methodological and conceptual problems encountered.     

Comparing the Predictive Accuracy of Case Linkage Methods in Serious Sexual Assaults

The empirical support for linkage analysis is steadily increasing, but the question remains as to what method of linking is the most effective. We compared a more theory‐based, dimensional behavioural approach with a rather pragmatic, multivariate behavioural approach with regard to their accuracy in linking serial sexual assaults in a UK sample of serial sexual assaults (n = 90) and one‐off sexual assaults (n = 129). Their respective linkage accuracy was assessed by (1) using seven dimensions derived by non‐parametric Mokken scale analysis (MSA) as predictors in discriminant function analysis (DFA) and (2) 46 crime scene characteristics simultaneously in a naive Bayesian classifier (NBC). The dimensional scales predicted 28.9% of the series correctly, whereas the NBC correctly identified 34.5% of the series. However, a subsequent inclusion of non‐serial offences in the target group decreased the amount of correct links in the dimensional approach (MSA–DFA: 8.9%; NBC: 32.2%). Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used as a more objective comparison of the two methods under both conditions, confirming that each achieved good accuracies (AUCs = .74–.89), but the NBC performed significantly better than the dimensional approach. The consequences for the practical implementation in behavioural case linkage are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rational-Emotive Education: A review of the literature

This article will assess the current status of Rational-Emotive Education. Attention is given to the concepts of Rational-Emotive Education, as well as specific teaching strategies. Also explored are studies attempting to assess the efficacy of using Rational-Emotive Education in the classroom. It is concluded that more scientific and comparative studies are needed in this area.Dr. Daniel N. Watter is an assistant professor of Health Science at William Paterson College in Wayne, New Jersey. In addition, he is a sex and marital therapist in private practice.