A General Structure for Legal Arguments About Evidence Using Bayesian Networks

A Bayesian network (BN) is a graphical model of uncertainty that is especially well suited to legal arguments. It enables us to visualize and model dependencies between different hypotheses and pieces of evidence and to calculate the revised probability beliefs about all uncertain factors when any piece of new evidence is presented. Although BNs have been widely discussed and recently used in the context of legal arguments, there is no systematic, repeatable method for modeling legal arguments as BNs. Hence, where BNs have been used in the legal context, they are presented as completed pieces of work, with no insights into the reasoning and working that must have gone into their construction. This means the process of building BNs for legal arguments is ad hoc, with little possibility for learning and process improvement. This article directly addresses this problem by describing a method for building useful legal arguments in a consistent and repeatable way. The method complements and extends recent work by Hepler, Dawid, and Leucari (2007) on object‐oriented BNs for complex legal arguments and is based on the recognition that such arguments can be built up from a small number of basic causal structures (referred to as idioms). We present a number of examples that demonstrate the practicality and usefulness of the method.     

Personality characteristics of fighter pilots and ground personnel

The training of fighter plane pilots is expensive, yet instruments are rarely used to screen potential pilots prior to flight training. Hence, a measure that can differentiate fighter pilots from other military personnel is needed. This study was an investigation of personality traits that are contributing factors for becoming a pilot in the Air Force, which could serve as screening tools. One hundred and twelve males were recruited from the Air Force university in Taiwan. Follow-up was conducted 2 years later with 73 students who became pilots and 39 who became ground personnel. A further 53 male military personnel of the same age served as controls. Structural equation modeling was used to show that pilots were more extraverted and less neurotic than the ground personnel, and more extraverted than the controls. Paternal overprotection had an indirect association with becoming a pilot through the mediation of the personality traits of extraversion and neuroticism. Mental health was not associated with becoming a pilot. The optimal cut-off point of 4/5 on a scale of extraversion resulted in a high sensitivity (96%) for differentiating between fighter pilots and controls. Independent of psychosocial stressors (mental health), extraversion is associated with the biological mechanisms of an individual, and plays a unique role in the process of becoming a pilot. Therefore, an extraversion index can be used for screening potential military pilots prior to flight training, as a means of reducing costs and managing human resources.     

Individual Differences in the Effectiveness of Error Management Training for Developing Negotiation Skills

This study investigated whether the effectiveness of an error management approach to training negotiation knowledge and skill depended on individual differences in conscientiousness, extraversion, and openness to experience. Participants were randomly assigned to two training programs that incorporated key elements of an error management and behavioral modeling approach to training, and were trained in the complex interpersonal skill of negotiation. At the end of training, declarative knowledge acquisition, procedural knowledge acquisition, declarative knowledge retention, and transfer performance were assessed at different points in time. Results suggested that the effectiveness of the error management training program was dependent on individual levels of conscientiousness and extraversion. For several learning outcomes, the performance of highly conscientious and extraverted individuals was superior in the error management condition, while the performance of less conscientious and introverted individuals was superior in the behavioral modeling condition. The implications of these findings, and suggestions for future research, are discussed.     

Seeing Like a Geologist: Bayesian Use of Expert Categories in Location Memory

Memory for spatial location is typically biased, with errors trending toward the center of a surrounding region. According to the category adjustment model (CAM), this bias reflects the optimal, Bayesian combination of fine‐grained and categorical representations of a location. However, there is disagreement about whether categories are malleable. For instance, can categories be redefined based on expert‐level conceptual knowledge? Furthermore, if expert knowledge is used, does it dominate other information sources, or is it used adaptively so as to minimize overall error, as predicted by a Bayesian framework? We address these questions using images of geological interest. The participants were experts in structural geology, organic chemistry, or English literature. Our data indicate that expertise‐based categories influence estimates of location memory—particularly when these categories better constrain errors than alternative (“novice”) categories. Results are discussed with respect to the CAM.     

Why Higher Working Memory Capacity May Help You Learn: Sampling,Search, and Degrees of Approximation

Algorithms for approximate Bayesian inference, such as those based on sampling (i.e., Monte Carlo methods), provide a natural source of models of how people may deal with uncertainty with limited cognitive resources. Here, we consider the idea that individual differences in working memory capacity (WMC) may be usefully modeled in terms of the number of samples, or “particles,” available to perform inference. To test this idea, we focus on two recent experiments that report positive associations between WMC and two distinct aspects of categorization performance: the ability to learn novel categories, and the ability to switch between different categorization strategies (“knowledge restructuring”). In favor of the idea of modeling WMC as a number of particles, we show that a single model can reproduce both experimental results by varying the number of particles—increasing the number of particles leads to both faster category learning and improved strategy‐switching. Furthermore, when we fit the model to individual participants, we found a positive association between WMC and best‐fit number of particles for strategy switching. However, no association between WMC and best‐fit number of particles was found for category learning. These results are discussed in the context of the general challenge of disentangling the contributions of different potential sources of behavioral variability.     

Non‐Bayesian Noun Generalization in 3‐ to 5‐Year‐Old Children: Probing the Role of Prior Knowledge in the Suspicious Coincidence Effect

It is unclear how children learn labels for multiple overlapping categories such as “Labrador,” “dog,” and “animal.” Xu and Tenenbaum (2007a) suggested that learners infer correct meanings with the help of Bayesian inference. They instantiated these claims in a Bayesian model, which they tested with preschoolers and adults. Here, we report data testing a developmental prediction of the Bayesian model—that more knowledge should lead to narrower category inferences when presented with multiple subordinate exemplars. Two experiments did not support this prediction. Children with more category knowledge showed broader generalization when presented with multiple subordinate exemplars, compared to less knowledgeable children and adults. This implies a U‐shaped developmental trend. The Bayesian model was not able to account for these data, even with inputs that reflected the similarity judgments of children. We discuss implications for the Bayesian model, including a combined Bayesian/morphological knowledge account that could explain the demonstrated U‐shaped trend.     

Appraisal and Coping Process Immediately Before Ejection: A Study of Australian and Swedish Pilots

This study focuses on appraisal and coping processes among military pilots during ejection episodes. A total of 49 ejection episodes were reported by 24 pilots from the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) and 24 pilots from the Swedish Air Force (SAF). Two clusters of coping strategies were identified- instrumental self-management and emotional self-management-and both forms of coping were clearly related to effective problem solving. The emotional self-management strategies suggest an effective block of disturbing thoughts and emotions. Good performance was associated with challenge appraisals and considerable use of instrumental self-management. Poor performance was associated with appraising the episodes as irrelevant or threatening. Ejections caused by technical malfunctions were handled more effectively psychologically than were ejections caused by human errors. Only minor differences were found between the Australian and Swedish samples.     

Predicting Breast Self‐Examination: A Test of the Information‐Motivation‐Behavioral Skills Model1

The present research utilizes the information‐motivation‐behavioral skills (IMB) model (Fisher & Fisher, 1992, 2000) to predict breast self‐examination (BSE) and related behaviors in women. Results from a cross‐sectional survey study of 166 women found deficiencies in BSE‐related information, motivation, and behavioral skills, as well as insufficient rates of BSE‐related behaviors. Structural equation modeling indicated that IMB model variables account for significant variance in BSE and BSE‐related behaviors, and that the predicted relationships between the constructs of the 1MB model were supported. The present research extends the utility of the IMB model beyond preventive behaviors such as HIV prevention into the domain of detection behaviors such as BSE.     

Place and the self: An autobiographical memory synthesis

In this article, I argue that the relationship between place and self can be accounted for by recent theoretical work on autobiographical memory. The link between place and self is conceptualized as a transitory mental representation that emerges as a “place of mine” (personal autobiographical experience) from a “place” (declarative knowledge). The function of “place of mine” is to guide personal memory and self-knowing consciousness of periods of our lives. I combine inquiries of memory, self, and place in a triadic relationship, a synthesis, suggesting a conceptual model for the phenomenon of place-related self as a sub-system of the self. This is formed by a causal progression from a physical place across time via emotional and cognitive bonds, components of the autobiographical information grounding the self, apportioned across declarative memory. Finally, using the methods of factor analysis and structural equation modeling, I show that the proposed model accounts for previous and new data on place-related identity.     

Treating obsessive compulsive behavior and enhancing peer engagement in a preschooler with intellectual disability

Intellectual disability (ID) is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by impairments in cognitive and adaptive functioning in social, practical, or conceptual domains. Individuals with ID present with higher‐order repetitive behaviors such as a need for sameness, ritualistic, and compulsive behaviors. Often referred to as obsessive compulsive behaviors (OCBs), these behaviors increase in prevalence between 2 and 5 years of age. The present study evaluated an exposure‐based behavioral intervention for decreasing OCBs and concomitantly increasing play skills in a 4‐year‐old boy with mild ID in an inclusive preschool setting. Using a multiple baseline across behaviors design, the intervention was associated with a decrease in target behaviors and an increase in the duration of peer social engagement, with results maintained at 3‐week follow‐up. The intervention consisted of exposure and response prevention with function‐based components. Procedures including prompting and reinforcement were generalized to parent and teacher mediators. This study provides preliminary support for the use of an exposure‐based behavioral intervention to treat OCBs in children of preschool age with ID.     

Effects of workload preview on task scheduling during simulated instrument flight

Our study examined pilot scheduling behavior in the context of simulated instrument flight. Over the course of the flight, pilots flew along specified routes while scheduling and performing several flight-related secondary tasks. The first phase of flight was flown under low-workload conditions, whereas the second phase of flight was flown under high-workload conditions in the form of increased turbulence and a disorganized instrument layout. Six pilots were randomly assigned to each of three workload preview groups. Subjects in the no-preview group were not given preview of the increased-workload conditions. Subjects in the declarative preview group were verbally informed of the nature of the flight workload manipulation but did not receive any practice under the high-workload conditions. Subjects in the procedural preview group received the same instructions as the declarative preview group but also flew half of the practice flight under the high-workload conditions. The results show that workload preview fostered efficient scheduling strategies. Specifically, those pilots with either declarative or procedural preview of future workload demands adopted an efficient strategy of scheduling more of the difficult secondary tasks during the low-workload phase of flight. However, those pilots given a procedural preview showed the greatest benefits in overall flight performance.     

Modeling memory and perception

I present a framework for modeling memory, retrieval, perception, and their interactions. Recent versions of the models were inspired by Bayesian induction: We chose models that make optimal decisions conditioned on a memory/perceptual system with inherently noisy storage and retrieval. The resultant models are, fortunately, largely consistent with my models dating back to the 1960s, and are therefore natural successors. My recent articles have presented simplified models in order to focus on particular applications. This article takes a larger perspective and places the individual models in a more global framework. I will discuss (1) the storage of episodic traces, the accumulation of these into knowledge (e.g., lexical/semantic traces in the case of words), and the changes in knowledge caused by learning; (2) the retrieval of information from episodic memory and from general knowledge; (3) decisions concerning storage, retrieval, and responding. Examples of applications include episodic recognition and cued and free recall, perceptual identification (naming, yes–no and forced‐choice), lexical decision, and long‐term and short‐term priming.     

Prediction of situational awareness in F-15 pilots

Situational awareness (SA) is a skill often deemed essential to pilot performance in both combat and noncombat flying. A study was conducted to determine if SA in U.S. Air Force F-15 pilots could be predicted. The participants were 171 active duty F-15 A/C pilots who completed a test battery representative of various psychological constructs proposed or demonstrated to be valid for the prediction of performance in a wide variety of military and civilian jobs. These predictors encompassed measures of cognitive ability, psychomotor ability, and personality. Supervisor and peer ratings of SA were collected. Supervisors and peers showed substantial agreement on the SA ratings of the pilots. The first unrotated principle component extracted from the supervisor and peer ratings accounted for 92.5% of the variability of ratings. The unrotated first principal component served as the SA criterion. Flying experience measured in number of F-15 hours was the best predictor of SA. After controlling for the effects of F-15 flying hours, the measures of general cognitive ability based on working memory, spatial reasoning, and divided attention were found to be predictive of SA. Psychomotor and personality measures were not predictive. With additional F-15 flying hours it is expected that pilots would improve their ratings of SA.     

Insight, working through, and practice: the role of procedural knowledge

A conception of insight is proposed, based on a systems and information-processing framework and using current neuroscience concepts, as an integration of information that results in a new symbolization of experience with a significant change in self-image and a transformation of non-declarative procedural knowledge into declarative knowledge. Since procedural memory and knowledge, seen to include emotional and relationship issues, is slow to change, durable emotional and behavioral change often requires repeated practice, a need not explicitly addressed in standard psychoanalytic technique. Working through is thus seen as also encompassing nondynamic factors. The application of these ideas to therapeutic technique suggests possible therapeutic interventions beyond interpretation. An illustrative clinical vignette is presented.     

知识向技能转化的影响因素

将知识向技能的转化过程分为 :陈述性编码阶段、程序性编码阶段 ,并假设存在一些因素影响陈述性编码向程序性编码的转化过程 ,控制好这些关键因素将有利于提高教学质量。为证明此假设 ,设计了四个实验。实验一、二结果表明 ,发现学习和接受学习中原有知识水平、概念地图策略等因素显著影响陈述性编码阶段 ;实验三、四结果表明 ,发现学习和接受学习中变式练习、解题策略指导等因素显著影响程序性编码阶段 ,对以上实验数据的再分析得出这两阶段存在明显的相互制约关系 ,根据以上结论和 E.D.Gagne的信息加工模型 ,构建了一个智慧技能获得的信息加工模型。     

Sticking to the Evidence? A Behavioral and Computational Case Study of Micro‐Theory Change in the Domain of Magnetism

Constructing an intuitive theory from data confronts learners with a “chicken‐and‐egg” problem: The laws can only be expressed in terms of the theory's core concepts, but these concepts are only meaningful in terms of the role they play in the theory's laws; how can a learner discover appropriate concepts and laws simultaneously, knowing neither to begin with? We explore how children can solve this chicken‐and‐egg problem in the domain of magnetism, drawing on perspectives from computational modeling and behavioral experiments. We present 4‐ and 5‐year‐olds with two different simplified magnet‐learning tasks. Children appropriately constrain their beliefs to two hypotheses following ambiguous but informative evidence. Following a critical intervention, they learn the correct theory. In the second study, children infer the correct number of categories given no information about the possible causal laws. Children's hypotheses in these tasks are explained as rational inferences within a Bayesian computational framework.     

潜变量建模的贝叶斯方法

贝叶斯统计是统计学的两大流派之一,近年来贝叶斯统计在社会及行为科学领域日益流行。鉴于国内心理学界对贝叶斯统计应用仍不广泛,本文尝试从非技术性的角度对贝叶斯统计用于潜变量建模的过程进行简要介绍。主要涉及贝叶斯与频率论在统计学基本概念上的对比;贝叶斯统计的基本原理和分析过程。最后以一个验证性因子分析为例,简要介绍贝叶斯统计用于潜变量建模的分析过程。希望本文能为国内心理学者进行潜变量建模提供新的视角。     

Aptitude Testing Inspired by Information Processing: A Test of the Four-Sources Model

The four-sources model of human abilities posits that individual differences in performance on cognitive tasks are due to differences in working-memory capacity, information-processing speed, the breadth of declarative knowledge, and the breadth of procedural knowledge. To test this model, 310 civilian volunteers were administered a 25-test battery, consisting of verbal, quantitative, and spatial tasks designed to reflect each of the four sources. Confirmatory factor analysis was performed on the variance-covariance matrix of test scores to test the four-sources model and plausible alternatives. The best-fitting model was one that included both the four-sources factors and three content factors. Hierarchical and nonhierarchical models fit about equally well. From additional data on the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery, latent-factor correlations suggested that working-memory capacity overlapped considerably with psychometric general ability (r = .99) and breadth of declarative knowledge overlapped with psychometric verbal ability (r = .97), but information-processing speed was distinct from psychometric perceptual speed (r = .16).     

The role of working memory in motor learning and performance

Three experiments explore the role of working memory in motor skill acquisition and performance. Traditional theories postulate that skill acquisition proceeds through stages of knowing, which are initially declarative but later procedural. The reported experiments challenge that view and support an independent, parallel processing model, which predicts that procedural and declarative knowledge can be acquired separately and that the former does not depend on the availability of working memory, whereas, the latter does. The behaviour of these two processes was manipulated by providing or withholding visual (and auditory) appraisal of outcome feedback. Withholding feedback was predicted to inhibit the use of working memory to appraise success and, thus, prevent the formation of declarative knowledge without affecting the accumulation of procedural knowledge. While the first experiment failed to support these predictions, the second and third experiments demonstrated that procedural and declarative knowledge can be acquired independently. It is suggested that the availability of working memory is crucial to motor performance only when the learner has come to rely on its use.