数学能力与决策的关系：个体差异的视角

即便在相同的情形中, 每个人所做的决策也有千差万别, 导致决策个体差异的因素之一就是数学能力。文章综述了算术能力、数量表征、概率推理能力以及数学认知启发式对各种决策的影响。目前这方面的研究或者采用相关范式将数学能力作为决策的外部关联因素, 或者采用成分范式确定决策过程所需要的特定数学认知成分; 观点上的主要争论在于是一般认知能力还是数学能力在预测决策表现, 以及数学能力是否总是对决策有积极作用; 此外, 双系统模型和模糊痕迹理论有望为决策的个体差异提供理论解释。今后研究应该澄清上述争论, 确定合适的研究范式和结果解释框架, 并探讨更多提高决策能力的措施。     

A systems view of psychological trauma: Developing post-traumatic stress response paradigms

This article traces the development of traumatic stress paradigms within the context of emerging psychological and organizational theories. It traces the evolution of the systems view of trauma from an early stimulus-response model using a biological perspective through the development of cybernetic, information-processing to the field systems perspectives of trauma. This article concludes by examining the evolutionary and contextualist paradigms of trauma theory and its value to the psychotherapist working with trauma victims.     

沉没成本效应的产生根源与影响因素

沉没成本效应是指决策者的决策行为因受沉没成本影响而产生的一种非理性决策现象。针对这一决策偏差的产生根源,研究者从认知、动机和神经三个角度提出了解释。沉没成本效应的影响因素包括沉没成本特性、情境因素、个体差异和文化差异等。基于先前研究存在的问题和不足,沉没成本效应的未来研究应着眼于改进研究方法,探究产生根源,关注行为沉没成本和加强应用研究。     

儿童的决策行为

现有的研究表明,儿童早期就具有一定的利用概率和统计信息来做决策的能力,这种能力随着年龄增长,但和成人相比存在差异;儿童和成人同样运用启发式来做决策,且受许多判断偏见的影响。儿童的决策行为受到人格特征、性别、年龄、任务领域特殊性和信息表征等因素的影响。文中还介绍了决策的自我调节模型和“双过程”理论,从不同的角度解释和预测儿童决策行为的发展。最后分析了儿童决策研究的趋势。     

The systems approach — A. Bogdanov and L. von Bertalanffy

We undertake the comparison between Ludwig von Bertalanffy's General Systems Theory and Alexandr Bodganov's Tektology as two theories proposing a holistic interpretation of reality and claiming to solve problems which are unsolvable via conventional philosophic and scientific theories and methodologies. Basic misunderstandings by some Soviet authors regarding the nature of these theories — especially in the case of Tektology — are pointed out. The comparison is made in what concerns the general origins and purposes of the theories, their approaches to the problem of organization, their treatment of mathematics and their understanding of the cybernetic concept of regulation.We contend that Tektologycontains — some 15 years earlier — all the basic concepts which will be later developed by the General Theory of Systems. As we shall see, Tektology is the ultimate expansion of any theory of systems. This fact is widely ignored in contemporary specialized literature.We finally contend that both Tektology and the General Systems Theory are a sign of the times. A holistic secular monism is a respectable alternative to the failure of contemporary science and philosophy in guiding the life of men, in providing araison d'être for human existence. However, we do not explore the soundness of this alternative.     

Men’s Decision-Making About Predictive <Emphasis Type="Italic">BRCA1/2</Emphasis> Testing: The Role of Family

Men who have a family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer may be offered a predictive genetic test to determine whether or not they carry the family specific BRCA1/2 mutation. Male carriers may be at increased risk of breast and prostate cancers. Relatively little is known about at-risk men’s decision-making about BRCA1/2 testing. This qualitative study explores the influences on male patients’ genetic test decisions. Twenty-nine in-depth interviews were undertaken with both carrier and noncarrier men and immediate family members (17 male patients, 8 female partners, and 4 adult children). These explored family members’ experiences of cancer and genetic testing, decision-making about testing, family support, communication of test results within the family, risk perception and risk management. Implicit influences on men’s testing decisions such as familial obligations are examined. The extent to which other family members—partners and adult children—were involved in testing decisions is also described. It is demonstrated that mothers of potential mutation carriers not only perceive themselves as having a right to be involved in making this decision, but also were perceived by their male partners as having a legitimate role to play in decision-making. There was evidence that (adult) children were excluded from the decision-making, and some expressed resentment about this. The implications of these findings for the practice of genetic counseling are discussed.     

基于期望值最大化的理论何时失效：风险决策中为自己-为所有人决策差异的眼动研究

主流的风险决策理论专家发展了一系列基于期望值最大化(expectation-maximization)的理论, 以期捕获所有人的风险决策行为。然而大量证据表明, 这些基于期望值最大化的理论并不能如同描述性理论那样理想地描述单一个体的决策行为。本研究采用眼动追踪技术, 系统考察了个体在为所有人决策与为自己决策时的风险决策行为及信息加工过程的差异。本研究发现, 基于期望值最大化的理论可捕获为所有人决策或为自己多次决策时的情况, 却不能很好捕获个体为自己进行单次决策时的情况。本研究结果有助于理解基于期望值最大化的理论与启发式/非基于期望值最大化的理论的边界, 为风险决策理论的划分和发展提供实证参考。     

不确定情境中的决策心理——适应与认知

不确定情境中的决策问题广受经济学家和心理学家关注,但他们对人的决策行为有不同的解释。该简要回顾了经济学和心理学视野中的决策理论,包括预期效用理论、主观预期效用理论和前景理论。主要介绍了“生态理性”观对人的决策心理的研究,着重介绍了研究发现的几种启发式策略,如“一个理由策略”,并探讨了他们在人适应过程中的作用。中最后分析了决策问题的研究现状。     

Comments on Richard Jeffrey

In this commentary, after first summarizing the three major theses of Jeffrey's paper ‘Probability and Falsification: Critique of the Popper Program’, and sketching out what I take to be his central argument, I criticize Jeffrey on two grounds. The first is that he has failed to explain why his version of Bayesianism provides us with better theories upon which to make decisions; the second is that he has offered a theory about decision-making that by-passes the important question: How can we make more rational decisions?     

Take The First: Option-generation and resulting choices

Experimental decision-making research often uses a task in which participants are presented with alternatives from which they must choose. Although tasks of this type may be useful in determining measures (e.g., preference) related to explicitly stated alternatives, they neglect an important aspect of many real-world decision-making environments—namely, the option-generation process. The goal of the present research is to extend previous literature that fills this void by presenting a model that attempts to describe the link between the use of different strategies and the subsequent option-generation process, as well as the resulting choice characteristics. Specifically, we examine the relationship between strategy use, number and order of generated options, choice quality, and dynamic inconsistency. “Take The First” is presented as a heuristic that operates in ill-defined tasks, based on our model assumptions. An experiment involving a realistic (sports) situation was conducted on suitable participants (athletes) to test the predictions of the model. Initial results support the model’s key predictions: strategies producing fewer generated options result in better and more consistent decisions.     

Reasoning about partial functions with the aid of a computer

Partial functions are ubiquitous in both mathematics and computer science. Therefore, it is imperative that the underlying logical formalism for a general-purpose mechanized mathematics system provide strong support for reasoning about partial functions. Unfortunately, the common logical formalisms — first-order logic, type theory, and set theory — are usually only adequate for reasoning about partial functionsin theory. However, the approach to partial functions traditionally employed by mathematicians is quite adequatein practice. This paper shows how the traditional approach to partial functions can be formalized in a range of formalisms that includes first-order logic, simple type theory, and Von-Neumann—Bernays—Gödel set theory. It argues that these new formalisms allow one to directly reason about partial functions; are based on natural, well-understood, familiar principles; and can be effectively implemented in mechanized mathematics systems.Supported by the MITRE-Sponsored Research program. This paper is a written version (with references) of an address given at the Partial Functions and Programming: Foundational Questions conference held 17 February 1995 at the University ol California at Irvine.     

An application of a multitrait-multimethod test to validity data of a social learning treatment for aggressive children

Campbell and Fiske's (1959) multitmit-multimethod matrix was applied to data from two independent social learning measures designed to evaluate procedures used to aid aggressive children. Six parallel or like-named variables — noncomplying, crying, whining, negativism, destructiveness, and yelling — from both a home observation assessment system and a parent telephone data system were used. The data from 47 cases indicated that the categories of whining, crying, and destructiveness demonstrated significant convergent validity, but only whining demonstrated discriminant validity. The situation-specific versus cross-situational consistency aspects of the behaviors studied, and the implications for future research, were discussed.This article is based on a doctoral dissertation submitted to the Department of Educational Psychology of the University of Oregon. The author wishes to express his appreciation to his dissertation advisor, Lloyd Lovell, and to Gerald Patterson for his generous offer to use data that he had spent years collecting.     

A Hierarchical Taxonomy of Human Goals

This paper presents a hierarchical taxonomy of human goals, based on similarity judgments of 135 goals gleaned from the literature. Women and men in 3 age groups—17–30, 25–62, and 65 and older—sorted the goals into conceptually similar groups. These were cluster analyzed and a taxonomy of 30 goal clusters was developed for each age group separately and for the total sample. The clusters were conceptually meaningful and consistent across the 3 samples. The broadest distinction in each sample was between interpersonal or social goals and intrapersonal or individual goals, with interpersonal goals divided into family-related and more general social goals. Further, the 30 clusters were organized into meaningful higher order clusters. The role of such a taxonomy in promoting theory development and research is discussed, as is its relationship to other organizations of human goals and to the Big Five structure of personality.     

Decision-making styles and vocational maturity: An alternative perspective

This study examined the relationship between decision-making styles and vocational maturity with a focus on the current discrepancy between research and theory regarding the utility of rational decision making. While rational decision making has been central to many theoretical formulations in career development, recent research findings have not unequivocally supported this proposition. Based on the assumption that rational decision making would be more important to those individuals who do not have access to many of the traditional sources of vocational maturity, this study attempted to account for the inconsistency between research and theory by systematically considering relevant population attributes. The results of this investigation were consistent across two independent samples of community college students, in that a reliance upon the rational style was the only significant decision-making style predictor of vocational maturity; the dependent and intuitive decision-making styles did not add significant increments to the regression equations. The discussion highlighted the advantages of viewing theory, research, and practice in career decision making from a perspective that explicitly incorporates relevant attributes of given populations.     

Time in philosophy and in physics: From Kant and Einstein to Gödel

The essay centers on Gödel's views on the place of our intuitive concept of time in philosophy and in physics. It presents my interpretation of his work on the theory of relativity, his observations on the relationship between Einstein's theory and Kantian philosophy, as well as some of the scattered remarks in his conversations with me in the seventies — namely, those on the philosophies of Leibniz, Hegel and Husserl — as a successor of Kant — in relation to their conceptions of time.For the physical world, the four dimensions are natural. But for the mind, there is no such natural coordinate system; time is the only natural frame of reference.Gödel, conversation on 15.3.72     

Integrating Criminological and Decision Research Theory: Implications for Understanding and Addressing Crime in Marginalized Communities

Minority groups are significantly overrepresented in crime. Theories of racial differences in crime developed using two separate and distinct approaches that highlight either increased exposure to criminogenic factors at the individual level or greater risk of crime due to disadvantaged neighborhood conditions. Neighborhood theories describe how structural disadvantage disrupts neighborhood social processes and produces oppositional street cultures. In the article, we advance theorizing on race and crime by linking the neighborhood experience to individual-level decision making via new conceptualizations of culture. Rather than a “values as goals” view of culture, culture may include a “tool kit” of ways to solve problems and this cultural toolkit may, in turn, influence how an individual makes decisions. Specifically, culturally learned toolkits may increase flaws in the decision process (e.g., fast and intuitive rather than deliberate decision processes, the use of decision heuristics) to produce more crime, which would explain the association between race and crime. We integrate this conceptualization of culture and these flaws in the decision-making process into rational choice theory at the individual level and describe how they may be exacerbated in disadvantaged neighborhood contexts. Implications for understanding race and crime and directions for future research are discussed.     

A stitch in time saves nine: Behavioural decision-making explanations for time management problems

Time management problems such as choosing urgent instead of important tasks are prevalent but so far they lack a theoretical explanation. The authors argue that time management implies a choice about the use of time. Therefore rational choice theory as a normative theory of choice is relevant to time management, and so is behavioural decision-making research focusing on biases and heuristics that make people deviate from the prediction of rational choice theory. The authors show how these biases and heuristics lead to non-efficient time management. In particular, steep and hyperbolic time discounting is explained and its implications for time management as well as for time management training are presented. Several propositions about the importance of individual and situational variables are also put forward.     

犯罪行为决策的理论与研究方法

犯罪行为是犯罪人决策的结果。犯罪行为决策研究旨在通过运用认知心理学的有关原理,说明犯罪行为实施之前的行为决策过程及影响因素,其成果能为国家制定刑事政策与犯罪预防政策等提供理论依据。犯罪行为决策的理论模型主要可分为犯罪理性模型、犯罪期望效用模型和犯罪前景理论模型。犯罪行为决策的研究方法主要采用心理物理法、过程追踪法、访谈法、投射测验法和犯罪统计法等。展望未来,应进一步探讨犯罪行为决策的理性与非理性问题,并加强对犯罪行为决策的验证性研究。     

The emergence of knowledge systems thinking: A changing perception of relationships among innovation,knowledge process and configuration

As agriculture develops, policy and management decisions increasingly focus on agricultural innovation emerging from utilizing knowledge and/or technology. This paper considers models for underpinning knowledge and technology policy and management. It describes the emergence of knowledge systems thinking. The system construct is applied to actors (individuals, networks and institutions) involved in knowledge processes. These actors potentially form a highly articulated and complex whole. Knowledge policy and management focus on measures that enhance the synergy between actors. Knowledge systems are viewed as “soft systems,” i.e., they only become systems as a result of active construction and joint learning. The soft systems perspective facilitates the identification of various knowledge system models, which have consequences for policy and management decisions with respect to investment, design, and training. In an attempt to create a unifying theory for these models, it is posited that these models are consistent combinations of innovation, knowledge process and structural configuration. Currently, he is the director of an international program on “Comparative research in knowledge systems in support of sustainable agriculture.”     

It was intuitive,and it felt good: a daily diary study on how people feel when making decisions

ABSTRACT

In daily life, people make plenty of decisions, either intuitively or based on analysis. So far, research has examined when decision-making leads to correct or biased outcomes. In the present study, we adopted a different perspective and explored how decision-making is associated with how people feel. In an observational study, 134 healthy participants retrospectively reported on six evenings which decisions they had made during that day (total N?=?3,850 decisions). They were also asked to indicate how they had felt before/after each decision. Multilevel regression analyses revealed that (a) people reported having felt better prior to intuitive as compared to analytical decisions, (b) people reported having felt better after as compared to before the decision, and (c) this increase in positive feeling was more pronounced for intuitive decisions. The latter two associations were robust to statistically controlling for the life domain in which the decisions occurred, the decisions’ importance and ease, and daily mood. The retrospective design and the single-item measure of mood are among the limitations of this study. Altogether, the results are in line with the idea that making everyday life decisions intuitively makes people feel good.