Judgemental adjustment of initial forecasts: Its effectiveness and biases

Managers are often required to integrate their own forecasts with statistical forecasts. The studies reported in this paper examine the efficacy of allowing people to adjust their own forecasts in the light of statistical forecasts that are provided to them. Three experimental studies varied the reliability of the statistical forecasts and examined the performance of people over time. Issues of the form of the feedback and the use of decision support were also examined. The results unequivocally suggest that the effectiveness of judgemental adjustment depended on the statistical model's reliability and seasonally of time series. However, people had considerable difficulty placing less weight on their own forecasts (compared to the statistical forecasts) and this behaviour became more pronounced over time. Even provision of decision support did not improve performance at the task.     

祈使句和逻辑(英文)

本文基于更新框架定义了一种动态的祈使句语义,并在此基础之上讨论了关于祈使句的逻辑。这个语义对于祈使句的一致性问题和Ross悖论提供了一种直接的解决方案。我们的工作在祈使句和祈使力结构之间的对应之上展开。首先,根据处理祈使句相容性的不同方式,我们给出了几种不同的祈使句一致性定义。然后,祈使句的意义被处理为祈使力机构上的依赖相容性的更新函项。最后,祈使句之间的蕴涵关系被归约为祈使力结构之间的某种关系。基于不同的相容性定义,我们给出了几种不同的蕴涵关系。     

Korsgaard on Hypothetical Imperatives

I argue that rationalists need not adopt Kant’s method for determining what one has reason to do, where by “Kant’s method” I mean the view that normative guidance comes only from directives imposed on the agent by the agent’s own will. I focus on Kant’s argument for “imperatives of skill,” one sort of hypothetical imperative. I argue, against Korsgaard, that Kant’s argument is neither better nor significantly different than the sort of argument non-Kantian rationalists offer. I close by arguing that Korsgaard is wrong to think that her question “why should I care about performing the means to my ends?” is a serious worry.     

Science and Political Imperatives: Orders of Precedence

An ideal view is sketched of the relationship between the facts established in science and the values of ethics and politics, and of the distinction between them. Some necessary qualifications are drawn, which do not essentially undermine the ideal. Then two cases of scientific work are considered in which considerations of value may in different ways be playing a more intimate role in the science than the ideal would suggest. These are Darwin’s theory of evolution and the current consensus on climate change. Are any general lessons to be drawn from these cases?     

Foucault and the Imperatives of Education: Critique and Self-Creation in a Non-Foundational World

This article outlines Foucault’s conception of critique in relation to his writings on Kant. In that Kant saw Enlightenment as a process of release from the status of immaturity in that we accept someone else’s authority to lead us in areas where the use of reason is called for, it is claimed in this article that Foucault’s notion of critique reveals his own conception of maturity. Whereas Kant sees maturity as the rule of self by self through reason, Foucault sees it as an attitude towards ourselves and the present through an historical analysis of the limits, and the possibility of transgression, of going beyond. Critique is thus a permanent interrogation of the limits, an escape from normalization, and a facing-up to the challenges of self-creation while seeking to effect changes in social structures on specific regional issues of concern. The article concludes by suggesting that the problem of historical and epistemological relativism, which a conception of total critique gives rise to, may not be as insurmountable as some critics of Foucault have claimed.     

The Content and Logic of Imperatives

Axiomathes - This paper articulates an account of imperatives that sensibly supports the idea of a logic of imperative inferences. We rebuke common objections to the very possibility of such a...     

Evolutionary Explanations of Indicatives and Imperatives

Recently there has been some interest in studying the explanation of meaning by using signaling games. I shall argue that the meaning of signals in signaling games remains sufficiently unclear to motivate further investigation. In particular, the possibility of distinguishing imperatives and indicatives at a fundamental level will be explored. Thereby I am trying to preserve the generality of the signaling games framework while bringing it closer to human languages. A number of convergence results for the evolutionary dynamics of our models will be proved.     

The Normative Source of Kantian Hypothetical Imperatives

Abstract

This paper offers a critique of Christine Korsgaard’s interpretation of Kantian instrumental reason. Korsgaard understands Kantian hypothetical imperatives to share a common normative source with the categorical imperative – namely self-legislating, human rational agency. However, her reading of Kantian hypothetical imperatives is problematic for three reasons. Firstly, Korsgaard’s agent-centred approach renders incoherent Kant’s analytic-synthetic division. Secondly, by minimising the dualistic framework of Kant’s practical philosophy the dialectical character of practical rationality is lost: norms of instrumental reasoning therefore become confused with those of moral reasoning. Thirdly, this in turn curtails the distinct critical authority of pure practical rationality over instrumental choice. The paper argues that we need to understand the normativity of instrumental rationality through the lens of Kant’s dualisms. An alternative interpretation is offered which highlights how the norms of hypothetical imperatives appeal to standards of theoretical cognition and practical efficiency rather than the self-legislative demands of pure practical reason.     

Social Anxiety and Content Specificity of Interpretation and Judgemental Bias in Children

Previous research with adult samples has demonstrated that social anxiety disorder is associated with content‐specific interpretation and judgemental biases. The present study extends our understanding of the specificity of cognitive biases in childhood social anxiety. A sample of non‐clinical children aged 11–12 years completed social anxiety and depression scales and was presented with scenarios depicting hypothetical events varying along two dimensions: relevance to self (event occurs to self or to other) and domain of activity (event is social or non‐social). Partial support for the content‐specificity hypothesis was found. Children's social anxiety symptoms were positively associated with negative interpretation ratings for ambiguous self‐referent and other‐referent events, but only when these events were in the social domain. Further, children's social anxiety symptoms were positively associated with emotional cost judgements for ambiguous social and non‐social events, but only when these events referred to the self. Both patterns of results remained significant even after controlling for concurrent depressive symptoms. Implications of the results for our understanding of maintaining factors in childhood social anxiety are discussed. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Imperatives of Narrative: Health Interest Groups and Morality in Network News

This article examines some of the story conventions of network television news to explain the ways in which healthcare interest groups develop and maintain their presence in this medium—a process that has significant implications for public understanding of healthcare issues, and therefore to bioethics. The article is divided into three sections. The first section focuses on three major normative conventions of television news: adherence to a simple narrative structure, the balance ethic, and avoidance of the “think-piece” and outlines the basic strategies available to interest groups for exploiting these normative conventions. Section two introduces three case studies of organizations and individuals who have run high-profile media campaigns. Section three explores the implications for bioethics of the observations made in this article.     

Be Nice! How Simple Imperatives Simplify Imperative Logic

In a series of articles, P. Vranas recently proposed a new imperative logic. The strong and weak inferences of this logic are motivated by an appeal to a strong and weak ‘support by reasons’ that transfers from the premisses of an argument to its conclusion. They also combine nonmonotonic and monotonic reasoning patterns. I show that for any moral agent, Vranas’s proposal can be simplified enormously.     

New Mandates and Imperatives in the Revised ACA Code of Ethics

The first major revision of the ACA Code of Ethics in a decade occurred in late 2005, with the updated edition containing important new mandates and imperatives. This article provides interviews with members of the Ethics Revision Task Force that flesh out seminal changes in the revised ACA Code of Ethics in the areas of confidentiality, romantic and sexual interactions, dual relationships, end‐of‐life care for terminally ill clients, cultural sensitivity, diagnosis, interventions, practice termination, technology, and deceased clients.     

The Shattered Microcosm: Imperatives for Improved Family Therapy in Africa in the 21st Century

This paper provides an in-depth socio-political analysis of the basis for the limits of family therapy in Africa in the last 40 years. The goal is to make more visible the economic, social, political, and cultural factors that have combined to complicate and frustrate our macro-environments of practice. The conclusion is that family therapy in Africa cannot achieve any meaningful progress in the present millenium unless the structures of underdevelopment under which we live and work are dismantled and in their place the important preconditions for successful practice of modern family therapy are entrenched. The list of imperatives to be addressed is offered to suggest the direction along which we must move if we are to effect this adaptation.     

The Relationship of Imperatives and Self-Efficacy to Indices of Social Anxiety

Seventy-three college students participated in a study to assess the role of self-efficacy and imperatives in social anxiety. The students were asked to speak in front of a small group of their peers and their anxiety and length of time talking were measured. Neither lower self-efficacy nor higher levels of imperative thinking at Baseline were correlated with higher levels of anxiety. The critical finding was that subjects who showed higher levels of imperative thinking at Baseline spoke for a significantly shorter period of time. This suggests that the participant's anxiety was moderated by the performance of an instrumental response, in this situation by choosing to limit the amount of time spent talking. The results suggest the centrality of imperative thinking in shaping behavior in the domain of social anxiety.     

Evaluation of the Effects of Prescribing Gait Complexity Using Several Fluctuating Timing Imperatives

Abstract

Variability in the temporal structure of gait patterns, measured by “Fractal Index” (FI), is thought to represent abundancy of movement patterns facilitating adaptive control of walking. However we do not know how FI changes according to different walking rhythms or if this is repeatable, as needed to exploit the paradigm for rehabilitation. Fourteen healthy young adults synchronised heel contact to an auditory metronome twice each in four conditions (uncued, white noise, pink noise, and red noise) and three sessions. FI differed based on the walking condition while no effect of session was revealed. The results of this study suggest gait fractality changes systematically with different stimuli and can be consistently prescribed in a desired direction within a group of healthy young individuals.     

Demographic Imperatives and Religious Markets: Considering the Individual and Interactive Roles of Fertility and Switching in Group Growth

Two models seeking to explain the growth and decline of religious groups are prevalent in the literature. The religious market approach emphasizes the role of intergroup competition and in doing so focuses on religious switching. Another perspective emphasizes demographic mechanisms, particularly fertility. Research to date has not considered how switching and fertility interact as mechanisms of growth. Switching and fertility share a significant role in the growth trajectory of a religious group. Early success in gaining members through switching has an important long-term impact which fertility alone cannot produce. The age of those switching into a group can also have significant consequences for the effects of fertility.