信息模糊：消费决策领域中的有限理性

信息模糊（obfuscation）是行为经济学研究的重要领域,主要解释了在商品买卖过程中,销售商通过把商品信息复杂化等手段,让人们的消费过程变得更加复杂和困难,从而使消费者在购买商品时面对信息模糊做出种种不明智的选择的现象问题。本文从以往的研究成果出发,就信息模糊、有限理性和销售者的决策行为的关系进行了探讨,以期为信息模糊的跨学科研究提供可借鉴的思路和方法。     

The CEO Selection Decision Process: Bounded Rationality and Decision Component Ordering

This paper presents a model of the basic components of the CEO selection decision process used by corporate boards of directors. It describes selection as a purposeful and boundedly rational process characterized by three key components: aspiration, judgment and justification. Each of these components is described in detail. In addition, the ordering of these elements is examined. Specifically, it is suggested that the exact ordering varies depending on a number of factors. Among the most important are (1) the performance of the organization, (2) the availability of qualified candidates and (3) the standardization of the CEO's office within the organization at the time of the succession decision. Examples are provided to help illustrate various order effects. Following this, sample research propositions are presented to assist researchers in future studies devoted to this topic.     

"Leaky" Rationality: How Research on Behavioral Decision Making Challenges Normative Standards of Rationality

ABSTRACT— For more than 30 years, decision-making research has documented that people often violate various principles of rationality, some of which are so fundamental that theorists of rationality rarely bother to state them. We take these characteristics of decision making as a given but argue that it is problematic to conclude that they typically represent departures from rationality. The very psychological processes that lead to "irrational" decisions (e.g., framing, mental accounting) continue to exert their influence when one experiences the results of the decisions. That is, psychological processes that affect decisions may be said also to "leak" into one's experience. The implication is that formal principles of rationality do not provide a good enough normative standard against which to assess decision making. Instead, what is needed is a substantive theory of rationality—one that takes subjective experience seriously, considers both direct and indirect consequences of particular decisions, considers how particular decisions fit into life as a whole, and considers the effects of decisions on others. Formal principles may play a role as approximations of the substantive theory that can be used by theorists and decision makers in cases in which the formal principles can capture most of the relevant considerations and leakage into experience is negligible.     

The Theory and Practice of Foreign Policy Decision Making

Central to Alex George's work was a concern with the psychology of presidential decision making. Our analysis focuses on George's work at the intersection of leadership psychology and the psychology of judgment in the making of consequential foreign policy decisions, specifically those dealing with issues of war and peace. We begin with a review of the fundamental dilemmas of political decision making, focusing on the various factors that present challenges to leaders seeking to make high-quality decisions. We then move to an analysis of the nature of judgment and the ways in which it both shapes and is shaped by cognitive dynamics and conclude by examining a number of steps designed to help leaders avoid the most damaging blind spots of their own psychologies and cognitive biases.     

Decision Making in Vocational Theory: Evolution and Implications

This article examines the evolution of decision making from a position of minor significance to one of primary importance in vocational theory.     

多层次团队决策理论及其进展

1 引言随着组织扁平化的发展,分布式专长团队在组织中得到广泛运用。这种团队的特点是:团队包括一个团队领导;成员专长具有差异性和互补性;成员可以来自相同或不同的组织;团队领导作最终决策;衡量决策质量的标准是决策结果的对或错。当前有关群体决策的研究相当多,其特点是群体成员的地位平等,共同分享有关决策问题的知识,决策的主要目标是达成认知一致。因此,传统的群体决策理论不能简单地推广到分布式专长团队中,团队决策需要新的理论支撑。本文介绍其中的多层次团队决策理论及其最新研究进展。     

Decision Neuroscience: New Directions in Studies of Judgment and Decision Making

ABSTRACT— Investigations of decision making have historically been undertaken by different disciplines, each using different techniques and assumptions, and few unifying efforts have been made. Economists have focused on precise mathematical models of normative decision making, psychologists have examined how decisions are actually made based on cognitive constraints, and neuroscientists have concentrated on the detailed operation of neural systems in simple choices. In recent years, however, researchers in these separate fields have joined forces in an attempt to better specify the foundations of decision making. This interdisciplinary effort has begun to use decision theory to guide the search for the neural bases of reward value and predictability. Concurrently, these formal models are beginning to incorporate processes such as social reward and emotion. The combination of these diverse theoretical approaches and methodologies is already yielding significant progress in the construction of more comprehensive decision-making models.     

Group Decision Making with Responses of a Quantitative Nature: The Theory of Social Decision Schemes for Quantities

Group decisions involving responses of a quantitative nature occur frequently in organizations. Although extensive research has considered group decisions involving discrete responses, only recently have responses involving quantities received comparable attention. It is proposed that the group decision processes related to quantities involve compromise and are characteristically different from the consensus processes that occur for discrete choices. The theory of social decision schemes (Davis, 1973) as originally formulated is intractable for quantitative responses because they involve a large number of response alternatives. This paper extends and adapts the theory of social decision schemes to apply it to group decisions of a quantitative nature. The decision schemes considered in modeling group decisions for quantitative responses also differ from those of discrete responses. The classes of decision schemes considered include central tendency, consensus-based, faction-attraction, coalition, distance-influence, dictator, special cases, and other. Unique approaches for evaluating the adequacy of these decision schemes for quantities are considered. An illustration of the theory of social decision schemes for quantities is presented with data from research on group goal decisions (Hinsz, 1991).