A difficulty for the possible worlds analysis of counterfactuals

I present a puzzle concerning counterfactual reasoning and argue that it should be solved by giving up the principle of substitution for logical equivalents.     

A counterexample to two-dimensional varimax-rotation

Usually, an iterative procedure based on two-dimensional rotations is employed to find the varimax solution in factor analysis. A matrix is given where this procedure does not yield the maximum value of the varimax criterion. However, random orthogonal transformations of some matrices and subsequent varimax-rotation using the iterative procedure seem to indicate that usually no local maxima exist.     

A counterexample to the contrastive account of knowledge

Many epistemologists treat knowledge as a binary relation that holds between a subject and a proposition. The contrastive account of knowledge developed by Jonathan Schaffer maintains that knowledge is a ternary, contrastive relation that holds between a subject, a proposition, and a set of contextually salient alternative propositions the subject’s evidence must eliminate. For the contrastivist, it is never simply the case that S knows that p; in every case of knowledge S knows that p rather than q. This paper offers a counterexample to the contrastive account of knowledge. Part 1 summarizes the contrastive theory developed by Schaffer in a series of recent papers. Part 2 presents an example from a class of cases characterized by compatibility between the proposition p and each of the alternative propositions that occupy q. In such cases the alternative propositions that partially constitute the ternary contrastive relation play no role in the acquisition of knowledge. Part 3 considers and rejects potential responses to the counterexample. The paper concludes that the contrastive theory is not a general account of knowledge.     

A graded semantics for counterfactuals

This article presents an extension of Lewis’ analysis of counterfactuals to a graded framework. Unlike standard graded approaches, which use the probabilistic framework, we employ that of many-valued logics. Our principal goal is to provide an adequate analysis of the main background notion of Lewis’ approach—the one of the similarity of possible worlds. We discuss the requirements imposed on the analysis of counterfactuals by the imprecise character of similarity and concentrate in particular on robustness, i.e., the requirement that small changes in the similarity relation should not significantly change the truth value of the counterfactual in question. Our second motivation is related to the logical analysis of natural language: analyzing counterfactuals in the framework of many-valued logics allows us to extend the analysis to counterfactuals that include vague statements. Unlike previous proposals of this kind in the literature, our approach makes it possible to apply gradedness at various levels of the analysis and hence provide a more detailed account of the phenomenon of vagueness in the context of counterfactuals. Finally, our framework admits a novel way of avoiding the Limit Assumption, keeping the core of Lewis’ truth condition for counterfactuals unchanged.

     

How to evaluate counterfactuals in the quantum world

In the article I discuss possible amendments and corrections to Lewis’s semantics for counterfactuals that are necessary in order to account for the indeterministic and non-local character of the quantum world. I argue that Lewis’s criteria of similarity between possible worlds produce incorrect valuations for alternate-outcome counterfactuals in the EPR case. Later I discuss an alternative semantics which rejects the notion of miraculous events and relies entirely on the comparison of the agreement with respect to individual facts. However, a controversy exists whether to include future indeterministic events in the criteria of similarity. J. Bennett has suggested that an indeterministic event count toward similarity only if it is a result of the same causal chain as in the actual world. I claim that a much better agreement with the demands of the quantum-mechanical indeterminism can be achieved when we stipulate that possible worlds which differ only with respect to indeterministic facts that take place after the antecedent-event should always be treated as equally similar to the actual world. In the article I analyze and dismiss some common-sense counterexamples to this claim. Finally, I critically evaluate Bennett’s proposal regarding the truth-conditions for true-antecedent counterfactuals.     

A counterexample to Fishburn's conjecture on finite linear qualitative probability

Kraft, Pratt and Seidenberg (Ann. Math. Statist. 30 (1959) 408) provided an infinite set of axioms which, when taken together with de Finetti's axiom, gives a necessary and sufficient set of “cancellation” conditions for representability of an ordering relation on subsets of a set by an order-preserving probability measure. Fishburn (1996) defined f(n) to be the smallest positive integer k such that every comparative probability ordering on an n-element set which satisfies the cancellation conditions C₄,…,C_k is representable. By the work of Kraft, Pratt, and Seidenberg (1959) and Fishburn (J. Math. Psychol. 40 (1996) 64; J. Combin. Design 5 (1997) 353), it is known that n-1?f(n)?n+1 for all n?5. Also Fishburn proved that f(5)=4, and conjectured that f(n)=n-1 for all n?5. In this paper we confirm that f(6)=5, but give counter-examples to Fishburn's conjecture for n=7, showing that f(7)?7. We summarise, correct and extend many of the known results on this topic, including the notion of “almost representability”, and offer an amended version of Fishburn's conjecture.     

Vann McGee's counterexample to modus ponens

Conclusion After rejecting some unjustified criticism of McGee's claim about modus ponens, I argued for two conditionals: If the Adams-Appiah theory of conditionals is correct, then modus ponens is saved from McGee's counterexample. If the Lewis-Jackson theory is correct, the same holds. Furthermore, I raised some doubts whether the antecedents of these conditionals are true. But, if one of them were, then, by modus ponens, modus ponens would be generally valid.     

A counterexample to the rigidity assumption in the visual perception of structure from motion

It has been proposed that the human visual system prefers perceptions of objects that are rigid or undergo minimum form change. A counterexample is presented in which a rigid two-dimensional figure rotating in the frontal plane is perceived as a distorting three-dimensional shape. It is argued that this perception results from the stimulation of automatic processes for perceiving size change, and that these processes are not subject to a general rigidity assumption.     

On the investigation of local identifiability: A counterexample

An assertion that the parameters of a covariance structure are locally identified at a certain point only if the rank of the Jacobian matrix at that point equals the number of parameters, is shown to be false by means of a counterexample.     

The miraculous conception of counterfactuals

I wish to thank Jonathan Bennett, Wayne Davis, Paul Horwich, Donald Nute, John Pollock and anonymous referees for helpful comments and criticisms on earlier drafts of this paper.     

Probabilities of counterfactuals and counterfactual probabilities

Probabilities figure centrally in much of the literature on the semantics of conditionals. I find this surprising: it accords a special status to conditionals that other parts of language apparently do not share. I critically discuss two notable ‘probabilities first’ accounts of counterfactuals, due to Edgington and Leitgeb. According to Edgington, counterfactuals lack truth values but have probabilities. I argue that this combination gives rise to a number of problems. According to Leitgeb, counterfactuals have truth conditions-roughly, a counterfactual is true when the corresponding conditional chance is sufficiently high. I argue that problems arise from the disparity between truth and high chance, between approximate truth and high chance, and from counterfactuals for which the corresponding conditional chances are undefined. However, Edgington, Leitgeb and I can unite in opposition to Stalnaker and Lewis-style ‘similarity’ accounts of counterfactuals.     

Reply to Ellis and to Handfield on essentialism,laws, and counterfactuals

Peter Singer has argued that there are good utilitarian reasons for rejecting the prospect of superlongevity: developing technology to double (or more) the average human lifespan. I argue against Singer's view on two fronts. First, empirical research on happiness indicates that the later years of life are (on average) the happiest, and there is no reason to suppose that this trend would not continue if superlongevity were realized. Second, it is argued that there are good reasons to suppose that there will be a certain amount of self-selection: the happiest are more likely to adopt superlongevity technology. This means that the adoption of superlongevity technology will have the effect of raising the level of aggregate utility.     

Counterfactual antecedent falsity and the epistemic sensitivity of counterfactuals

Why do utterances of counterfactual conditionals typically, but not universally, convey the message that their antecedents are false? I demonstrate that two common theoretical commitments–commitment to the existence of scalar implicature and of informative presupposition—can be supplemented with an independently motivated theory of the presuppositions of competing conditional alternatives to jointly predict this information when and only when it appears. The view works best if indicative and counterfactual conditionals have a closely related semantics, so I conclude by undermining two familiar arguments for a nonunified semantics of indicative and counterfactual conditionals.