Common and distinct factors in decision making under ambiguity and risk: A psychometric study of individual differences

The relation between decision making under ambiguity and risky decision making was examined. In Studies 1 and 2, choices under ambiguity were measured for a large sample receiving an Ellsberg-type Ambiguity-Probability Tradeoff Task. Participants with extreme scores were recruited for Part 2 of each study which consisted of a risky decision making task (Study 1) or a series of decisions under ambiguity in “real life” scenarios (Study 2). Despite a time gap of up to 2 months, individual differences in scores on Part 1 predicted scores on Part 2. In Study 3 participants received in a single session several risky decision making tasks, several measures of decision making under ambiguity, and several personality scales related to uncertainty and decision making style. Taken together, the findings support the existence of a stable dispositional trait to reduce uncertainty in decision making but also task-specific differences related to gains and losses.     

Bayesian latent variable models for the analysis of experimental psychology data

In this paper, we address the use of Bayesian factor analysis and structural equation models to draw inferences from experimental psychology data. While such application is non-standard, the models are generally useful for the unified analysis of multivariate data that stem from, e.g., subjects’ responses to multiple experimental stimuli. We first review the models and the parameter identification issues inherent in the models. We then provide details on model estimation via JAGS and on Bayes factor estimation. Finally, we use the models to re-analyze experimental data on risky choice, comparing the approach to simpler, alternative methods.     

Cognitive models of choice: comparing decision field theory to the proportional difference model

People often face preferential decisions under risk. To further our understanding of the cognitive processes underlying these preferential choices, two prominent cognitive models, decision field theory (DFT; Busemeyer & Townsend, 1993 ) and the proportional difference model (PD; González-Vallejo, 2002 ), were rigorously tested against each other. In two consecutive experiments, the participants repeatedly had to choose between monetary gambles. The first experiment provided the reference to estimate the models' free parameters. From these estimations, new gamble pairs were generated for the second experiment such that the two models made maximally divergent predictions. In the first experiment, both models explained the data equally well. However, in the second generalization experiment, the participants' choices were much closer to the predictions of DFT. The results indicate that the stochastic process assumed by DFT, in which evidence in favor of or against each option accumulates over time, described people's choice behavior better than the trade-offs between proportional differences assumed by PD.     

Group versus individual decision making: An investigation of performance measures,decision strategies,and process losses/gains

The relative effectiveness of individual and group performance was investigated by employing three decision making strategies. Ignoring this consideration, group decisions were superior (p ⩽ .01) to individual averages, equal to the selected best individual decisions, and inferior to the actual best individual solutions (p ⩽ .05). The results indicated that the degree of process loss/gain and the relative performance of groups and individuals was significantly influenced by the dependent variable utilized and the decision making strategy employed.     

Similarities and differences between mind-wandering and external distraction: A latent variable analysis of lapses of attention and their relation to cognitive abilities

The current study examined the extent to which task-unrelated thoughts represent both vulnerability to mind-wandering and susceptibility to external distraction from an individual difference perspective. Participants performed multiple measures of attention control, working memory capacity, and fluid intelligence. Task-unrelated thoughts were assessed using thought probes during the attention control tasks. Using latent variable techniques, the results suggested that mind-wandering and external distraction reflect distinct, yet correlated constructs, both of which are related to working memory capacity and fluid intelligence. Furthermore, the results suggest that the common variance shared by mind-wandering, external distraction, and attention control is what primarily accounts for their relation with working memory capacity and fluid intelligence. These results support the notion that lapses of attention are strongly related to cognitive abilities.     

Stereotypic biases in social decision making and memory: testing process models of stereotype use

Two information-processing mechanisms that could potentially contribute to judgmental discrimination against the members of stereotyped social groups were examined in two experiments, using a mock juror decision-making task. Both postulated mechanisms involve biased processing of judgment-relevant evidence. The interpretation hypothesis asserts that the activation of stereotypic concepts influences the perceived probative implications of other evidence. The selective processing hypothesis asserts that stereotype-consistent evidence is processed more extensively than is inconsistent evidence. Judgment and memory data from the first experiment supported the general notion that stereotype-based discrimination emerges from biased evidence processing. The specific pattern of results supported selective processing rather than interpretation biases as the critical process underlying observed judgmental discrimination. The second experiment corroborated this conclusion by showing that a manipulation that prevents selective processing of the evidence effectively eliminated biases in judgments and recall pertaining to stereotyped targets. Implications for a general understanding of stereotyping and discrimination are discussed.     

Cognitive ecology: the evolutionary ecology of information processing and decision making

edited by Reuven Dukas, University of Chicago Press, 1998. $95.00/￡75.95 hbk, $30.00/￡23.95 pbk (x+420 pages) ISBN 0 226 16932 4 (hbk), 0 226 16933 2 (pbk).     

Obtaining informed consent for HIV antibody testing: the decision making process

All patients referring themselves for HIV antibody testing must receive pre-test counselling and must give their informed consent before testing can proceed. All patients being referred by their doctors for HIV antibody testing must also receive pre-test counselling and must give their informed consent before testing can proceed, except in very unusual circumstances. This paper is written primarily for medical and nursing staff who are considering referring a patient for testing and it is particularly relevant to those staff working in the field of mental health. This paper draws on professional guidelines and suggests that staff use a two-part decision making process. In the first part die referrer decides whether there are substantial clinical grounds for needing the test result immediately. If there are, the referral is made for pre-test counselling and testing, for example at the local Genito-Urinary Medicine (GU) clinic. In the second part experienced AIDS counsellors try to enable the patient to decide whether or not to proceed. If the patient is not able to understand or make a decision the AIDS counsellors, in consultation with other staff, will decide whether to proceed. Whatever the decision, it should be respected by professional staff.     

Individual differences in fast-and-frugal decision making: Neuroticism and the recognition heuristic

The fast-and-frugal recognition heuristic (RH) claims that people base inferences on recognition only, thus ignoring further knowledge they possess. This claim has been repeatedly challenged, while recent evidence suggests that there are substantial individual differences in adhering to the RH. However, no personality or ability factors driving (non-)use of the RH have, as yet, been identified. In the present study, neuroticism was hypothesized to be a determinant of using the RH: participants high in neuroticism were expected to avoid making use of their knowledge beyond recognition, thus avoiding a diagnostic test of their abilities. The results corroborate this hypothesis: neuroticism predicted participants’ adherence to the RH while the other Big 5 factors and intelligence yielded no additional explanatory power. Moreover, the effect of neuroticism was not mediated by the accessibility of knowledge thus lending preliminary support for the notion that this effect may, in fact, be genuinely motivational in nature.     

A general class of latent variable models for ordinal manifest variables with covariate effects on the manifest and latent variables

Previous work on a general class of multidimensional latent variable models for analysing ordinal manifest variables is extended here to allow for direct covariate effects on the manifest ordinal variables and covariate effects on the latent variables. A full maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate all the model parameters simultaneously. Goodness‐of‐fit statistics and standard errors are discussed. Two examples from the 1996 British Social Attitudes Survey are used to illustrate the methodology.     

Gender differences in the relationship between young children's peer-related social competence and individual differences in theory of mind

In this study, the author examined the relationship between theory-of-mind understanding and preschool-aged children's peer-related social competence. One hundred eleven 3- to 5-year-old children (48 boys, 63 girls) participated in 2 theory-of-mind tasks designed to assess their understanding of false belief. Teachers rated children's peer-related social behavior in terms of prosocial behavior, aggressive or disruptive behavior, and shy or withdrawn behavior. Results indicated that, after controlling for age, theory-of-mind understanding significantly predicted aggressive or disruptive behavior for boys and prosocial behavior for girls. Theory-of-mind understanding also was related to lower scores of shy or withdrawn behavior for boys. Results are discussed in terms of the gender differences in the factors contributing to early peer competence.     

Individual differences in need for cognition and decision making in the Iowa Gambling Task

Differences in decision making between individuals differing in Need for Cognition (NFC) are examined using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Previous work using normative one time decisions suggests that individual low in NFC process gains and losses differently than those high in NFC and are more susceptible to decision biases. The IGT is a popular laboratory task that involves making risky decisions from experience involving both gains and losses. In the first experiment, low NFC participants performed significantly worse than the high NFC participants. A second experiment designed to examine the nature of these differences provides evidence that low NFC participants place more importance on gains as opposed to losses when performing the IGT. Results are discussed in light of previous work suggesting that low NFC participants place more importance on losses in mixed outcome decisions.     

Building theories of reading ability: On the relation between individual differences in cognitive skills and reading comprehension

To date most theories of reading ability have emphasized a single factor as the major source of individual differences in performance. However there has been little agreement on what that factor is. However, candidates have included visual discrimination, phonological and semantic recoding, short-term memory, and utilization of linguistic knowledge and context. The single- factor theories are summarized. Literature is then reviewed to show that no single-factor theory is likely to be right, because a very wide range of component skills and abilities has in fact been shown to correlate with reading success. Among them are discrimination of letter location and letter order during perceptual recognition, use of orthographic regularity as an aid to visual code formation, use of spelling-to-sound regularity in phonological recoding, memory for word order, spontaneous identification of syntactic relations, flexibility in prediction from syntactic and semantic context, and context-specificity in semantic encoding. It is concluded that more complex, multifactor models of reading ability are required, and some recent attempts to collect data conducive to such a model are described. In the process, three different approaches to identifying factors relevant to reading success are delineated. These are general abilities assessment, learning potential assessment, and component skills analysis. Two methods of conducting component skills analysis are presented, and it is recommended that they be used as converging operations. Finally, the results of a component skills analysis are used to construct a tentative example of a class of hierarchical models of reading ability that can be pursued developmentally.     

Social contract theory and just decision making: lessons from genetic testing for the BRCA mutations

Decisions about funding health services are crucial to controlling costs in health care insurance plans, yet they encounter serious challenges from intellectual property protection--e.g., patents--of health care services. Using Myriad Genetics' commercial genetic susceptibility test for hereditary breast cancer (BRCA testing) in the context of the Canadian health insurance system as a case study, this paper applies concepts from social contract theory to help develop more just and rational approaches to health care decision making. Specifically, Daniel's and Sabin's "accountability for reasonableness" is compared to broader notions of public consultation, demonstrating that expert assessments in specific decisions must be transparent and accountable and supplemented by public consultation.     

Individual differences make a difference: On the use and the psychometric properties of difference scores in social psychology

Much social psychological research is concerned with the question whether and how behavior changes because of a “treatment” (e.g., a situation that triggers a psychological reaction). One easy way to investigate such changes would be to analyze intraindividual differences before (Time 1) and after the treatment (Time 2). Interestingly, many scholars refrain from using difference scores because they think they are inherently unreliable. However, the bad reputation of difference scores is, in many cases, unwarranted: difference scores can be sufficiently reliable when standard deviations differ between measurement occasions, and standard deviations are likely to differ between measurement occasions because of differential treatment effects (i.e., interindividual differences in responsiveness to a treatment) and/or “strong situation” treatments. In the present article, we will (1) summarize classic and current arguments regarding the reliability of difference scores, (2) discuss the use of residual change scores as an alternative to difference scores, and (3) argue that latent difference score models are a particularly useful tool that social psychologists should consider using more frequently. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing individual differences: effects of responding to prior questionnaires on the substantive and psychometric properties of self-esteem and depression assessments

It has become a common practice among psychological researchers to administer batteries of individual difference assessments to research participants, although little is known about whether the substantive and psychometric integrity of the questionnaires are maintained when they are administered after the subject has completed other instruments. The studies presented here consider these issues in relation to the assessment of self-esteem and depression. In the first study, college students responded to a self-esteem inventory (a) by itself (control group), (b) after one prior questionnaire, (c) after three prior questionnaires, or (d) after five prior questionnaires. Results indicated that filling out one or more questionnaires before an assessment of self-esteem resulted in reports of lower self-esteem relative to the control condition. Additional analyses revealed that filling out three or five prior questionnaires created lower reliabilities of subscale scores and lower estimates of concurrent validity between self-esteem and depression. When the effect of prior questionnaires on the General Self-Esteem subscale was examined, the aforementioned results were replicated, and the prior questionnaire treatment created heterogeneous variances across the experimental groups. The second study was designed as a replication of the first study, using an assessment of depression as the target questionnaire. These results revealed that reports of depressive symptomatology increased as the number of prior questionnaires increased. Again, the prior questionnaire treatment created heterogeneity of variance between the groups, but did not adversely affect its internal consistency.     

Cognitive task effects on hemispheric blood flow in humans: Evidence for individual differences in hemispheric activation

Evidence from two indirect measures of hemispheric activity, EEG α and conjugate lateral eye movements, has pointed to the existence of individual differences in hemispheric activation. Results from a more direct indicator of hemispheric activity, regional cerebral blood flow as measured by the ¹³³Xe inhalation method, show that such individual differences can be detected in the distribution of blood in the two hemispheres and that the amount of increase in blood flow in the right relative to the left hemisphere is correlated with performance on a spatial task. These results corroborate and extend the findings from the EEG and eye movement studies and suggest that the dimension of individual differences in hemispheric activation may exert significant influence on cognitive performance and on problem-solving strategies.