Linda问题：“齐当别”抉择模型的解释

大量有关人类归因判断的研究表明,人类经常违反理性概率公理。Tversky和Kahneman（1983）使用Linda问题等特定场景的研究发现,人们系统性地表现出违反理性推断标准,判断合取事件发生概率大于其组成事件发生概率,称之为合取谬误,并用人们使用代表性启发式判断概率来解释该现象产生的原因。然而使用启发式观点对合取谬误现象进行解释过于模糊不清。该文首先介绍了合取谬误现象及其解释模型,然后应用Li（1994,2004）提出的不确定情形下决策理论——“齐当别”抉择模型对Linda问题中合取谬误产生的原因进行了新的解释     

Linda问题:"齐当别"抉择模型的解释

大量有关人类归因判断的研究表明,人类经常违反理性概率公理.Tversky和Kahneman(1983)使用Linda问题等特定场景的研究发现,人们系统性地表现出违反理性推断标准,判断合取事件发生概率大于其组成事件发生概率,称之为合取谬误,并用人们使用代表性启发式判断概率来解释该现象产生的原因.然而使用启发式观点对合取谬误现象进行解释过于模糊不清.该文首先介绍了合取谬误现象及其解释模型,然后应用Li(1994,2004)提出的不确定情形下决策理论--"齐当别"抉择模型对Linda问题中合取谬误产生的原因进行了新的解释.     

心理学家Daniel Kahneman获2002年诺贝尔经济学奖

心理学家Daniel Kahneman被授予2002年诺贝尔经济学奖。他遵循1978年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者Herbert A. Simon的“有限理性”理论和启发式的思想,提出3种常见的启发式:代表性、可得性以及锚定和调整。Kahneman发现人类的决策行为常常是非理性和有偏差的,这与传统经济学理论 (期望效用理论)的预期不符,而且这种偏差是有规律的。Kahneman提出前景理论以解释人类在不确定条件下的判断和决策行为。他获得诺贝尔经济学奖是因为他“把心理学的,特别是关于不确定条件下人的判断和决策的研究思想,结合到了经济科学中。”该文列举实例简单介绍了Daniel Kahneman对心理学和经济学的贡献。     

框架效应中的个体差异

框架效应是指框架的改变导致个体对同一问题的备择方案产生偏好转变的现象。Tversky和Kahneman的系列研究证实框架效应普遍存在, 但是随着研究的深入, 众多研究者发现个体特征会影响框架效应的稳定性, 这些个体特征主要包括人格、认知能力、认知风格、年龄和性别等。我们将来应该进一步从认知和情绪的角度, 全面研究框架效应个体差异的心理机制, 构建动态、综合的框架效应理论模型。     

美国投资心理学理论的进展

美国投资心理学的研究产生于20世纪80年代。西方的许多经济学家在研究投资活动过程中发现,微观经济学和金融学的许多数学模型,不能很好地解释和预测现实中的投资活动,开始加强对个体在投资决策中的心理研究,在Amos Tversky、Daniel Kahneman、Richard Thaler、Robert J.Shiller等一大批经济学家和投资心理学家的努力下,取得了丰硕的成果。为此,美国普林斯顿大学的投资心理学家Kahneman荣获2002年度的诺贝尔经济学奖。文章介绍了西方投资心理学的几个重要理论,即过度反应理论(overreaction theory)、视野理论(prospect theory)、后悔理论(regret theory)及对投资者的过度自信理论（overconfidence theory）。     

情绪与决策的关系

该文对情绪与决策关系的研究进行了较为全面的阐述：早期的决策理论完全排斥情绪的影响作用,研究者们热衷于建立理性决策的数学模型;自Kahneman和Tversky提出前景理论后,产生了以预期情绪为主的后悔和失望理论,以及主观预期愉悦理论;20世纪90年代后,随着神经科学和社会心理学家们对情绪与认知关系研究的深入,一些学者意识到决策过程中不仅存在作为效用的预期情绪,还存在“即时”情绪,它们可以在没有认知评估参与的情况下产生,可以反过来影响认知评估,可以直接影响决策行为。     

预期理论的提出、演进及危机

1979年,Kahneman与Tversky修正了von Neumann与Morgenstern的期望效用理论(expected utility theory,EU)中有关线性概率的假设,提出了预期理论(prospect theory,PT)。1992年,两人对预期理论作了进一步的改进,将该理论演进为累积性预期理论(cumulative prospect theory,CPT)。本文就从PT到CPT的发展、CPT与PT的差异及CPT所面临的危机进行了述评。     

决策过程中参照点效应研究述评

Kahneman和Tversky提出的“参照点效应”概念,对决策者的认知编码和信息整合方式做出了合理的解释,并对传统的理性决策理论提出了挑战。近年来,关于参照点效应的研究也一直受到众多学者的重视。文章系统阐述了参照点效应的相关概念和最新研究进展,并提出了参照点效应未来研究的4个趋势：日益重视多重参照点效应的研究、开始关注动态决策中的参照点变化机制、重视群体决策过程中的参照点效应研究、注重在现实决策任务中验证和发展参照点效应的相关理论     

贝叶斯推理研究综述

Kahneman 和Tversky在70年代初期发现人们在概率推理中并不遵循数学上的贝叶斯定理,常常由于忽略问题中的基础概率而对稀少事件的条件概率作出夸大的反应。此后心理学家采用文本范式和经验范式对此问题进行了大量的研究,并涌现了一些不同的理论观点,主要有启发法策略论(代表性启发法和可得性启发法)、自然抽样空间假说、频率效应论和抽样加工理论。     

Daniel Kahneman与行为经济学

主要介绍诺贝尔奖得主Daniel Kahneman在行为经济学领域的主要贡献。传统经济学和心理学在对决策过程的研究上存在基本假设上的区别,Kahneman等人从心理学研究基础上开创的展望理论是行为经济学的理论基石。展望理论相对于预期效用理论更准确地描绘了决策人在风险下的决策行为,为将来经济学的理论和实证研究打下了坚实的基础。     

Together – apart: in touch in a time of separation

This paper explores the experience of working as a Jungian analyst through the various phases of the global COVID-19 pandemic, examining the importance of the physical containing space alongside the analyst’s internal mind and how technology can both help and hinder understanding. A number of clinical vignettes illustrate the challenge of communicating over a distance, paying particular attention to the way countertransference phenomena can become re-attuned. Reference is made to mythology and symbols of hope, and consideration given to the meaning and purpose of the pandemic.     

The Possibility of Meaning in Human Evolution

Science undermines the certitude of non-naturalistic answers to the question of whether human life has meaning. I explore whether evolution can provide a naturalistic basis for existential meaning. Using the work of philosopher Daniel Dennett and scientist Ursula Goodenough, I argue that evolution is the locus of the possibility of meaning because it has produced intentionality, the matrix of consciousness. I conclude that the question of the meaning of human life is an existentialist one: existential meaning is a product of the individual and collective tasks human beings undertake.     

Phenotypic plasticity and archetype: a response to common objections to the biological theory of archetype and instinct

Since Jung’s death in 1961, scholars have attempted to integrate growing biological science data into Jungian concepts such as the collective unconscious, instincts and the archetypes. This enterprise has been challenging due to persistent false dichotomies of gene and environment occasionally arising. Recent works by Roesler (2022a, 2022b) for example, have raised objections to the biological theory of archetypes, but the objections are plagued by such dichotomies. The concept of phenotypic plasticity, however, helps to both avoid this problem as well as bridge the gap between competing theories into a more integrated model with solid biological foundations.     

When is it time to stop? When good enough becomes bad enough

This article draws on Winnicott’s concept of the good enough mother to discuss how to know whether a therapeutic situation is good enough to continue or bad enough to end. This dilemma is explored in terms of clinical syndromes, such as anorexia and pathological gambling, but focuses mainly on analyst-initiated endings, which are termed the ‘Casablanca dilemma’, based on an amplification of the ending of the film Casablanca. The author goes on to discuss such one-sided endings, drawing on interviews with 40 analysts and therapists about their clinical experience. A typology of bad enough endings is presented. The psychological differences between a good enough analysis as opposed to a bad enough one are explored through the ideas of Winnicott and Neumann.     

Kann Es Ein Argument Für Den Skeptizismus Geben? Das Epistemische Problem Der Irrtumsmöglichkeit

Summary  Is there any argument for scepticism? The epistemic problem of the possibility of error. Arguments for scepticism rest on the assumption that knowledge claims are fallible. For this reason the concept of knowledge appears to be questionable. Since it is necessary to distinguish doubts from possible doubts, the arguments for scepticism appear to be unconvincing. If we take it into account that we know something that is immune to doubt, we should draw the conclusion that, contrary to scepticism, knowledge claims have to be compatible with being fallible. Thus any knowledge claim is capable of being doubted.     

The transcendent function in Spitteler’s Prometheus and Epimetheus

In August 2020, John Beebe and Steve Myers met via Zoom to discuss their differing interpretations of psychological typology and the different sources within Jung’s writings that influenced their books: Integrity in Depth: Energies and Patterns in Psychological Type (Beebe), and Myers-Briggs Typology vs Jungian Individuation (Myers). The discussion centred on Spitteler’s epic poem Prometheus und Epimetheus, which forms the basis of chapter V of Psychological Types. This is both the largest chapter and one of two chapters that Jung highlighted in the Argentine foreword as containing the essence of the book. Jung’s book is primarily about the transformation of personality rather than the categorization of people. Although it contains a critical psychology that deconstructs the nature of consciousness, that is only one half of the book and a stepping-stone to the other half, which is the reconciliation of opposites with particular emphasis on the relation of consciousness and the unconscious. Jung assumed that readers were already familiar with Prometheus und Epimetheus, an understanding of which sheds light on the nature of the transformation that Jung described – the development of a new attitude towards attitude itself.     

Chapter 6: Biblical Foundations for a Practical Theology of Aging

SUMMARY

This article reviews Biblical sources pertaining to the elderly, particularly the frail elderly. Founded on these sources, implications for elderly with Alzheimer's Disease and other forms of dementia are addressed through a personal perspective informed by writings of Christian mystics.     

Seeing in the Dark: A View into Dissociation and Healing

In this paper, I will explore the role of art-making, the experience of trauma and dissociation, and the process of working with self-states from an analytic and creative frame. Relevant literature on dissociation, trauma, and the use of art will be discussed. A case involving my work with an adolescent girl who had experienced sexual abuse from a family member will be shared, with an emphasis on the meaningful role images played during the therapeutic process. Both Jungian and psychoanalytic models of conceptualizing and working with dissociation are included, following Donald Kalsched’s (2013) recommendation for a “binocular stance” to treatment, including both a focus on the inner, intrapsychic world and the interpersonal, relational realm, and how art images both illuminated and expressed these realms. Within the therapeutic process, art images allowed the therapist a view into the client’s unconscious process, and created a meeting ground for dissociative barriers to be gradually seen, felt and known, by both therapist and client. The experience of dissociation, in images and in session, provided a reference point for myself and my client, Taylor, to develop a shared understanding and a framework for growth.