潜在类别分析技术在心理学研究中的应用

潜在类别分析是通过对类别型的外显变量和潜在变量之间的关系建立统计模型,根据模型参数得到各种潜在类别的具体外在表现的潜在特征分类技术。该分析方法主要应用于心理行为特征的分类、控制认知心理实验中被试个体差异引起的系统误差、评价临床心理诊断的精确性,以及心理测验中的项目分析、信度分析、结构分析等。对此方法的优劣进行分析比较,表明:该方法可以与其他测量理论相结合进一步拓展其在心理测量中的应用,也可在纵向数据和多水平数据中应用。在应用中亦有提升方法技术的空间。     

The Latent Structure of Substance Use Among American Indian Adolescents: An Example Using Categorical Variables

Researchers frequently have only categorical data to analyze and cannot, for theoretical or methodological reasons, assume that the observed variables are discrete representations of an underlying continuous variable. We present latent class analysis as an alternative method of measuring latent variables in these circumstances. Latent class analysis does not require the assumptions of factor analyses about the nature of manifest and latent variables, but does allow the use of more precise model selection than techniques such as cluster analysis. We modeled the lifetime substance use of American Indian youth. The latent class model of American Indian teenagers' substance use had four classes: Abstaining, Predominantly Alcohol, Predominantly Alcohol and Marijuana, and Plural Substance. We then demonstrated the usefulness of this latent variable by using it to differentiate levels of several variables in a manner consistent with Social Cognitive Theory.     

Latent Class Modeling of Phases in the Development of Transitive Reasoning

Fuzzy trace theory posits that during development the use of verbatim information for solving transitive relationships shifts to the use of gist information. In cognitive developmental research that uses a cross-sectional design, the binomial mixture model is often used to identify such shifts. Because the binomial mixture model assumes equal task difficulty and uses the number of correctly solved tasks for data analysis, it may be too restrictive and the more flexible latent class model is adopted as an alternative. This model allows varying task difficulty and uses the pattern of task scores as input for data analysis. The binomial mixture model and the latent class model are compared theoretically, and applied to transitive reasoning test data obtained from a cross-sectional sample of 615 children. The latent class model is found to be more appropriate for identifying multiple phases. Three phases are distinguished which can be interpreted well by means of fuzzy trace theory. These phases do not encompass fixed age periods.     

Externalising behaviour from infancy to mid-adolescence: Latent profiles and early predictors

The overall aim of the current study was to identify typical trajectory classes of externalising behaviour, and to identify predictors present already in infancy that discriminate the trajectory classes. 921 children from a community sample were followed over 13 years from the age of 18 months. In a simultaneously estimated model, latent class analyses and multinomial logit regression analyses suggested a five-class solution for developmental patterns of externalising problem behaviours: High stable (18% of the children), High childhood limited (5%), Medium childhood limited (31%), Adolescent onset (30%), and Low stable (16%). Six risk factors measured at 18 months significantly discriminated among the classes. Family stress and maternal age discriminated the High stable class from all the other classes. The results suggest that focusing on enduring problems in the relationship with the partner and partners' health may be important in preventive and early intervention efforts.     

Regression Mixture Models: Does Modeling the Covariance Between Independent Variables and Latent Classes Improve the Results?

Regression mixture models are increasingly used as an exploratory approach to identify heterogeneity in the effects of a predictor on an outcome. In this simulation study, we tested the effects of violating an implicit assumption often made in these models; that is, independent variables in the model are not directly related to latent classes. Results indicate that the major risk of failing to model the relationship between predictor and latent class was an increase in the probability of selecting additional latent classes and biased class proportions. In addition, we tested whether regression mixture models can detect a piecewise relationship between a predictor and outcome. Results suggest that these models are able to detect piecewise relations but only when the relationship between the latent class and the predictor is included in model estimation. We illustrate the implications of making this assumption through a reanalysis of applied data examining heterogeneity in the effects of family resources on academic achievement. We compare previous results (which assumed no relation between independent variables and latent class) to the model where this assumption is lifted. Implications and analytic suggestions for conducting regression mixture based on these findings are noted.     

Bayesian Semiparametric Structural Equation Models with Latent Variables

Structural equation models (SEMs) with latent variables are widely useful for sparse covariance structure modeling and for inferring relationships among latent variables. Bayesian SEMs are appealing in allowing for the incorporation of prior information and in providing exact posterior distributions of unknowns, including the latent variables. In this article, we propose a broad class of semiparametric Bayesian SEMs, which allow mixed categorical and continuous manifest variables while also allowing the latent variables to have unknown distributions. In order to include typical identifiability restrictions on the latent variable distributions, we rely on centered Dirichlet process (CDP) and CDP mixture (CDPM) models. The CDP will induce a latent class model with an unknown number of classes, while the CDPM will induce a latent trait model with unknown densities for the latent traits. A simple and efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed for posterior computation, and the methods are illustrated using simulated examples, and several applications.     

基于潜在类别分析的6~15岁儿童平衡秤任务认知规则探索

本研究使用自编平衡秤测验测试468名6~15岁儿童,通过潜在类别分析对认知规则进行分类。结果发现,被试使用了规则Ⅰ、规则Ⅰ'、规则Ⅱ、补偿规则、规则Ⅳ、距离优势规则等六种规则;6~9岁儿童主要使用规则Ⅰ;10~13岁儿童主要使用补偿规则;14岁以上儿童主要使用规则Ⅳ;13岁到14岁之间,使用规则Ⅳ的儿童数量呈跳跃式增加。与规则评估技术相比,潜在类别分析用于认知规则研究具有明显优势,最后对运用此方法的前提假设与局限进行了讨论。     

Rater Model Using Signal Detection Theory for Latent Differential Rater Functioning

Differential rater functioning (DRF) occurs when raters show evidence of exercising differential severity or leniency when scoring examinees within different subgroups. Previous studies of DRF have examined rater bias using manifest variables (e.g., use of covariates) to determine the subgroups. These manifest variables include gender and the ethnicity of the examinee. For example, a rater may score males more severely. Ideally, each rater’s severity should be invariant across subgroups. This study examines DRF in the context of latent subgroups that classify possible sources of DRF based on raters’ scoring behavior rather than manifest factors. An extension of the latent class signal detection theory (LC-SDT) model for identifying DRF is proposed and examined using real-world data and simulations. Results from real-world data show that the signal detection approach leads to an effective method to identify latent DRF. Simulations with varying sample sizes and conditions of rater precision were shown to recover parameters at an adequate level, supporting its use to identify latent DRF in large-scale data. These findings suggest that the DRF extension of the LC-SDT can be a useful model to examine characteristics of raters and add information that can aid rater training.     

Growth modeling with nonignorable dropout: alternative analyses of the STAR*D antidepressant trial

This article uses a general latent variable framework to study a series of models for nonignorable missingness due to dropout. Nonignorable missing data modeling acknowledges that missingness may depend not only on covariates and observed outcomes at previous time points as with the standard missing at random assumption, but also on latent variables such as values that would have been observed (missing outcomes), developmental trends (growth factors), and qualitatively different types of development (latent trajectory classes). These alternative predictors of missing data can be explored in a general latent variable framework with the Mplus program. A flexible new model uses an extended pattern-mixture approach where missingness is a function of latent dropout classes in combination with growth mixture modeling. A new selection model not only allows an influence of the outcomes on missingness but allows this influence to vary across classes. Model selection is discussed. The missing data models are applied to longitudinal data from the Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression (STAR*D) study, the largest antidepressant clinical trial in the United States to date. Despite the importance of this trial, STAR*D growth model analyses using nonignorable missing data techniques have not been explored until now. The STAR*D data are shown to feature distinct trajectory classes, including a low class corresponding to substantial improvement in depression, a minority class with a U-shaped curve corresponding to transient improvement, and a high class corresponding to no improvement. The analyses provide a new way to assess drug efficiency in the presence of dropout.     

Implementing continuous non-normal skewed distributions in latent growth mixture modeling: An assessment of specification errors and class enumeration

Abstract

Recent advances have allowed for modeling mixture components within latent growth modeling using robust, skewed mixture distributions rather than normal distributions. This feature adds flexibility in handling non-normality in longitudinal data, through manifest or latent variables, by directly modeling skewed or heavy-tailed latent classes rather than assuming a mixture of normal distributions. The aim of this study was to assess through simulation the potential under- or over-extraction of latent classes in a growth mixture model when underlying data follow either normal, skewed-normal, or skewed-t distributions. In order to assess this, we implement skewed-t, skewed-normal, and conventional normal (i.e., not skewed) forms of the growth mixture model. The skewed-t and skewed-normal versions of this model have only recently been implemented, and relatively little is known about their performance. Model comparison, fit, and classification of correctly specified and mis-specified models were assessed through various indices. Findings suggest that the accuracy of model comparison and fit measures are dependent on the type of (mis)specification, as well as the amount of class separation between the latent classes. A secondary simulation exposed computation and accuracy difficulties under some skewed modeling contexts. Implications of findings, recommendations for applied researchers, and future directions are discussed; a motivating example is presented using education data.     

K-means、潜在类别模型和混合Rasch模型的比较

基于模拟研究比较了K-means方法、潜在类别模型和混合Rasch模型在二分外显变量情境下的聚类效果.结果表明：（1）潜在类别数量、变量数量、样本量、样本平衡和变量间相关对K-means方法、潜在类别模型和混合Rasch模型的分类准确性均有影响且因素间的交互作用存在;（2）除了在2个潜在类别的样本不平衡条件下K-means方法表现较差外,在其他条件下与潜在类别模型和混合Rasch模型的表现相当;（3）混合Rasch模型的分类一致性在2个潜在类别的情境下要好于潜在类别模型,但是在4个潜在类别的情境下要差于潜在类别模型.     

A generalized rasch model for manifest predictors

A logistic regression model is suggested for estimating the relation between a set of manifest predictors and a latent trait assumed to be measured by a set ofk dichotomous items. Usually the estimated subject parameters of latent trait models are biased, especially for short tests. Therefore, the relation between a latent trait and a set of predictors should not be estimated with a regression model in which the estimated subject parameters are used as a dependent variable. Direct estimation of the relation between the latent trait and one or more independent variables is suggested instead. Estimation methods and test statistics for the Rasch model are discussed and the model is illustrated with simulated and empirical data.     

Using segmented linear regression models with unknown change points to analyze strategy shifts in cognitive tasks

Some years ago, Beem (1993, 1995) described a program for fitting two regression lines with an unknown change point (Segcurve). He suggested that such models are useful for the analysis of a variety of phenomena and gave an example of an application to the study of strategy shifts in a mental rotation task. This technique has also proven to be very fruitful for investigating strategy use and strategy shifts in other cognitive tasks. Recently, Beem (1999) developed SegcurvN, which fitsn regression lines with (n - 1) unknown change points. In the present article we present this new technique and demonstrate the usefulness of a three-phase segmented linear regression model for the identification of strategies and strategy shifts in cognitive tasks by applying it to data from a numerosity judgment experiment. The advantages and shortcomings of this technique are evaluated.     

Generalized latent trait models

In this paper we discuss a general model framework within which manifest variables with different distributions in the exponential family can be analyzed with a latent trait model. A unified maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of the generalized latent trait model will be presented. We discuss in addition the scoring of individuals on the latent dimensions. The general framework presented allows, not only the analysis of manifest variables all of one type but also the simultaneous analysis of a collection of variables with different distributions. The approach used analyzes the data as they are by making assumptions about the distribution of the manifest variables directly.     

A multidimensional item response model: Constrained latent class analysis using the gibbs sampler and posterior predictive checks

In this paper it will be shown that a certain class of constrained latent class models may be interpreted as a special case of nonparametric multidimensional item response models. The parameters of this latent class model will be estimated using an application of the Gibbs sampler. It will be illustrated that the Gibbs sampler is an excellent tool if inequality constraints have to be taken into consideration when making inferences. Model fit will be investigated using posterior predictive checks. Checks for manifest monotonicity, the agreement between the observed and expected conditional association structure, marginal local homogeneity, and the number of latent classes will be presented.This paper is supported by grant S40-645 of the Dutch Organization for Scientific Research (NWO).     

A maximum likelihood method for latent class regression involving a censored dependent variable

The standard tobit or censored regression model is typically utilized for regression analysis when the dependent variable is censored. This model is generalized by developing a conditional mixture, maximum likelihood method for latent class censored regression. The proposed method simultaneously estimates separate regression functions and subject membership in K latent classes or groups given a censored dependent variable for a cross-section of subjects. Maximum likelihood estimates are obtained using an EM algorithm. The proposed method is illustrated via a consumer psychology application.     

Two-Stage maximum likelihood estimation in the misspecified restricted latent class model

The maximum likelihood classification rule is a standard method to classify examinee attribute profiles in cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs). Its asymptotic behaviour is well understood when the model is assumed to be correct, but has not been explored in the case of misspecified latent class models. This paper investigates the asymptotic behaviour of a two-stage maximum likelihood classifier under a misspecified CDM. The analysis is conducted in a general restricted latent class model framework addressing all types of CDMs. Sufficient conditions are proposed under which a consistent classification can be obtained by using a misspecified model. Discussions are also provided on the inconsistency of classification under certain model misspecification scenarios. Simulation studies and a real data application are conducted to illustrate these results. Our findings can provide some guidelines as to when a misspecified simple model or a general model can be used to provide a good classification result.     

Analyzing sequential categorical data: Individual variation in markov chains

Markov chains are probabilistic models for sequences of categorical events, with applications throughout scientific psychology. This paper provides a method for anlayzing data consisting of event sequences and covariate observations. It is assumed that each sequence is a Markov process characterized by a distinct transition probability matrix. The objective is to use the covariate data to explain differences between individuals in the transition probability matrices characterizing their sequential data. The elements of the transition probability matrices are written as functions of a vector of latent variables, with variation in the latent variables explained through a multivariate regression on the covariates. The regression is estimated using the EM algorithm, and requires the numerical calculation of a multivariate integral. An example using simulated cognitive developmental data is presented, which shows that the estimation of individual variation in the parameters of a probability model may have substantial theoretical importance, even when individual differences are not the focus of the investigator's concerns.Research contributing to this article was supported by B.R.S. Subgrant 5-35345 from the University of Virginia. I thank the DADA Group, Bill Fabricius, Don Hartmann, William Griffin, Jack McArdle, Ivo Molenaar, Ronald Schoenberg, Simon Tavaré, and several anonymous reviewers for their discussion of these points.     

A general class of latent variable models for ordinal manifest variables with covariate effects on the manifest and latent variables

Previous work on a general class of multidimensional latent variable models for analysing ordinal manifest variables is extended here to allow for direct covariate effects on the manifest ordinal variables and covariate effects on the latent variables. A full maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate all the model parameters simultaneously. Goodness‐of‐fit statistics and standard errors are discussed. Two examples from the 1996 British Social Attitudes Survey are used to illustrate the methodology.     

Uncovering Substantive Patterns in Student Responses in International Large-Scale Assessments—Comparing a Latent Class to a Manifest DIF Approach

In this study, we contrast results from two differential item functioning (DIF) approaches (manifest and latent class) by the number of items and sources of items identified as DIF using data from an international reading assessment. The latter approach yielded three latent classes, presenting evidence of heterogeneity in examinee response patterns. It also yielded more DIF items with larger effect sizes and more consistent item response patterns by substantive aspects (e.g., reading comprehension processes and cognitive complexity of items). Based on our findings, we suggest empirically evaluating the homogeneity assumption in international assessments because international populations cannot be assumed to have homogeneous item response patterns. Otherwise, differences in response patterns within these populations may be under-detected when conducting manifest DIF analyses. Detecting differences in item responses across international examinee populations has implications on the generalizability and meaningfulness of DIF findings as they apply to heterogeneous examinee subgroups.