Presidential Debate Watching,Issue Knowledge,Character Evaluation,and Vote Choice

This study employs NES (National Election Survey) data from several presidential elections to investigate the effects of presidential debate watching on voters' issue knowledge, character evaluation, and vote choice. Debates can instill issue knowledge; however, voters are less likely to learn about incumbent presidents seeking re‐election after a four‐year term in office than about other candidates. Debates are also capable of changing voters' impressions of the candidates' character. Finally, at times debates help viewers make a vote choice; they are more likely to strengthen existing preferences (increasing confidence in their vote choice) than alter vote preferences.     

Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues

When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues, all other things equal. A simple heuristic predicted that the candidate who is rated more favorably on a larger number of issues would win the popular vote. This was correct for nine out of ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. We then used simple linear regression to relate the incumbent's relative issue ratings to the actual two‐party popular vote shares. The resulting model yielded out‐of‐sample forecasts that were competitive with those from the Iowa Electronic Markets and established quantitative models. The issue‐index model has implications for political decision makers, as it can help to track campaigns and to decide which issues to focus on. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Baby face wins? Examining election success based on candidate election bulletin via multilevel modeling

A growing body of research suggests that many voters rely on facial cues from political candidates to elect their leaders. Our study proposes that having a baby face could be an asset for a political candidate in a collectivist culture. Using election bulletin photographs from Taiwan's 2004, 2008 and 2012 legislative election, we look at the extent to which a candidate's baby face is related to election outcomes. Our multilevel modelling includes the number of candidates as Level 1 units, and the number of counties in which the candidates competed as Level 2 units. Vote share is the outcome variable. After considering the candidates' traits (perceived babyfacedness, competence, attractiveness and warmth) and background characteristics, babyfacedness was the strongest predictor of vote share. Results across three elections show consistent patterns: the more babyfaced the candidate, the greater the percentage of votes a candidate received, regardless of the candidate's gender, political affiliation or incumbency status. Babyfacedness is more influential than perceived competence, attractiveness and warmth.     

Republican Voters Prefer Candidates Who Have Conservative‐Looking Faces: New Evidence From Exit Polls

Research shows people share common political facial stereotypes: They associate faces with political ideologies. Moreover, given that many voters rely on party affiliation, political ideology, and appearances to select political candidates, we might expect that political facial stereotypes would sway voting preferences and, by extension, the share of votes going to each candidate in an election. And yet few studies have examined whether having a stereotypically conservative‐looking (or liberal‐looking) face predicts a candidate's vote shares. Using data from U.S. election exit polls, we show that the Republican voters within each state are more likely to vote for a candidate (even a Democrat) the more that person has a stereotypically Republican‐looking face. By contrast, the voting choices of the Democratic voters within each state are unrelated to political facial stereotypes. Moreover, we show that the relationship between political facial stereotypes and voting does not depend on state‐level ideology: Republican voters in both right‐leaning (“red”) and left‐leaning (“blue”) states are more likely to vote for candidates with conservative‐looking faces. These results have several important practical and theoretical implications concerning the nature and impact of political facial stereotypes, which we discuss.     

Motivated to Forgive? Partisan Scandals and Party Supporters

In this study, we investigate how partisan motivations shape voters' reactions to a political scandal by drawing on a unique survey experiment fielded immediately after Justin Trudeau's brownface/blackface scandal broke during the 2019 Canadian election. We thus explore motivated reasoning in real time in a competitive and highly partisan election context. Are voters more willing to forgive politicians for past behavior when their own party leader's impropriety is cued? To what extent do personal interests, such as cross-pressures or electoral concerns, affect the motivation to forgive? Our findings show that partisan-motivated reasoning is overwhelmingly powerful, producing politically biased judgments of politicians implicated in scandals. Furthermore, voters' willingness to forgive scandals is also influenced by “strategic” considerations, in that preferences over which political party wins or loses in the election affect opinions about whether someone should be forgiven or whether the scandal is considered important at all. However, we find no evidence that personal involvement in the issue raised by the scandal conditions partisan motivations. We posit that the environment—in this case, a competitive election—is an important consideration for understanding the extent and limits of partisan-motivated reasoning.     

Winning Charisma and Losing the Presidential Election1

This study focuses on voters' perceptions of presidential candidates' charismatic leadership. Competing hypotheses draw from performance-cue and decision-making literatures. Results from the panel data indicate that voters' perceptions of the winning candidate remain stable, while their perceptions of the losing candidate's charisma are enhanced after the election.     

Leadership Perceptions in Relation to a Presidential Vote1

In the 1988 American presidential election, leadership perceptions and perceived platforms were used to predict votes for one of the two final candidates (Governor Michael Dukakis and Vice President George Bush). Both leadership perceptions and perceived platforms were found to be related to voting. However, political involvement moderated the relationship between the perceived platforms and the votes, while leadership perceptions were found to be a consistent predictor of voting across levels of political involvement. Leadership perceptions, perceived platforms, and the interaction between involvement and perceived platforms predicted voting above and beyond the voters’ political affiliations. Consistent with a categorization model of leadership perceptions, the prototypicality of perceived leader traits was found to be strongly related to a tendency to vote for a candidate who was perceived to possess those traits. In comparing general favorability of characteristics versus prototypicality with respect to an effective political leadership category, general favorability played a larger role in uninvolved voters’ decisions than in involved voters’ decisions. Differences in mean leadership prototype ratings were also explored as a function of political affiliation and political involvement. The implications of these findings for campaign strategies and for leadership in organizational contexts are discussed.     

The Effects of Scandalous Information on Recall of Policy‐Related Information

Political observers often criticize the news media's focus on scandalous activities of candidates as distracting voters from the “real issues.” However, the extent to which such a fondness for scandal influences voters remains unclear. The present study examines whether exposure to scandalous information about a candidate interferes with memory for policy‐related information. Two possibilities are considered. One possibility is that scandalous information attracts substantial attention and processing from individuals thereby interfering with previously stored campaign information. A second possibility argues that conceiving of memory as organized in associative networks suggests that scandalous information facilitates, rather than interferes with, recall of policy‐related campaign information. Based on data from a longitudinal experiment, I conclude that exposure to scandalous information is less hazardous to voters than is often suggested by political observers.     

Cueing Patriotism,Prejudice, and Partisanship in the Age of Obama: Experimental Tests of U.S. Flag Imagery Effects in Presidential Elections

The American flag is a powerful symbol that campaigns seek to harness for electoral gain. But the flag's benefits may be more elusive than they appear. We begin by presenting content analysis of the flag's prevalence in 2012 U.S. presidential campaign ads, which suggests both candidates saw flags as advantageous. Then, in two experiments set during the 2012 campaign and a later study with prospective 2016 candidates, we find flag exposure provides modest but consistent benefits for Republican candidates among voters high in symbolic patriotism, racial prejudice, and Republican identification. These effects arise regardless of which candidate appears with the flag. Taken together, our results speak to both the power and limitations of the American flag in electioneering. Beyond practical implications for campaigns, these studies emphasize the heterogeneity of citizens’ reactions to visual political symbols and highlight potent links between symbolic attitudes and a nation's flag.     

Implicit Candidate‐Trait Associations in Political Campaigns

While the study of political attitudes has incorporated implicit processes in its theoretical models, the predominant approach to candidate‐trait perception focuses exclusively on explicit processes. Our novel, dual‐process approach to candidate perception sees voters as holding both conscious, explicit impressions of candidate traits and automatic, implicit candidate‐trait associations that cannot be measured using traditional self‐report techniques. We examine implicit candidate‐trait associations for the first time using data from a three‐wave online panel conducted in the last month of the 2012 U.S. presidential election. First, we demonstrate that implicit candidate‐trait associations exist. Second, we show that implicit associations of warmth and competence with the candidates predict explicit candidate evaluations, economic evaluations, and vote choice, above and beyond conventional political science controls and explicit trait perceptions. Finally, we find that these effects are strongest among nonpartisans and partisans with conflicted feelings about their party's nominee. We suggest future directions for implicit political cognition research, including trait perception.     

Candidate Name Exposure and Voting: Two Field Studies

Two studies clarify previous research on the impact of candidate name exposure in political election campaigns. In an election involving 27 candidates and 1157 voters, level of name exposure on campaign posters significantly predicted votes received, independent of other forms of campaigning. In the second study, name exposure levels were manipulated for hypothetical candidates, to eliminate potential confounds. Again, exposure significantly improved candidates' electoral performance'. The findings are interpreted as evidence for a direct effect of mere name exposure in electoral campaigns.     

Candidate Effects on Election Outcomes: Political Skill,Campaign Efficacy,and Intentions in a British General Election

Integrating Social/Political Influence Theory with the Theory of Planned Behavior, we argue that personal resources (i.e., political skill, self-efficacy) enable political candidates to form more ambitious campaign intentions, and thus perform better in elections. We tested this model with a sample of political candidates (N = 225) campaigning in a British general election. Three months before polling day, candidates provided self-ratings of political skill, domain-specific self-efficacy (i.e., campaign efficacy), and personal campaign intentions during the campaign period. Our results demonstrated that political skill was positively related to campaign efficacy, and intentions, via campaign efficacy. We also found a significant indirect effect for political skill on electoral performance (i.e., percentage of the vote), through campaign efficacy and intentions. Implications of our results for understanding candidate effects in campaigns and future research are discussed.     

Parsimony and Complexity: Developing and Testing Theories of Affective Intelligence

The theory of affective intelligence posits that an individual's emotions help govern a reliance on political habits or, alternatively, deliberation and attention to new political information. Some of the evidence adduced draws on the fact that voters who are anxious about their own party's candidate do not rely blindly on their partisanship but instead consider policy and personality when they vote. In a provocative paper, Ladd and Lenz (2008 ) argue that emotions reflect an evaluative judgment, akin to likes and dislikes, that has little to say about attention and habit. Here we examine the ANES data from 1980 to 2004 and find that the affective intelligence theory's original findings remain statistically robust. On closer examination, we also learn that Ladd and Lenz reformulated the theoretical test by using a different operationalization of affect and a different dependent variable and found results at variance from ours. We find it an inappropriate test. In the end, we agree with Ladd and Lenz that cross‐sectional data cannot crisply test the short‐term impact of emotions on attention and habit and concur that ultimately experiments will move the debate forward. We further observe that Brader's (2005, 2006 ) powerful field experiments explicitly test the special effect of emotions on attention and judgment and support the affective intelligence model.     

Visual Political Communication: The Impact of Facial Cues from Social Constituencies to Personal Pocketbooks

Voters often use visual cues such as facial appearance when forming impressions of political candidates. Originally, psychological research on appearance‐based politics focused on understanding whether or not these facial cues were consequential for political judgments. As this sub‐field of study has expanded, the focus has shifted to understanding how and what facial cues voters utilize in their decision‐making. From this perspective, inferences about political candidates are characterized by a number of interrelated appearance‐based cues such as facial competence, physical attractiveness, and ingrained gender stereotypes that manifest in politicians' appearance. Importantly, this expanded research focus now includes a broader range of evaluative judgments that are influenced by candidates' facial appearance. Here, we provide an overview of the research on the use of appearance‐based cues in political decision‐making including initial information gathered about candidates, the evaluation of candidates' potential to be effective leaders, and the decision of whether or not to support candidates in an election.     

God and Country: The Partisan Psychology of the Presidency,Religion, and Nation

Overt love of God and country have seemingly been prerequisites to be president in the United States in recent decades, if not always. Indeed, the 2008 presidential race was replete with campaign messages showcasing such perspectives—that Barack Obama and John McCain were religiously faithful and deeply patriotic. Scholarship demonstrates the potential political power of explicit appeals to America and Christianity; however, little research has examined (a) citizens' perceptions of candidates' ties to faith and nation and (b) how these impressions may be related to electoral attitudes and intended vote. We address this gap, measuring both explicit and implicit indicators of the Christian‐ness and American‐ness of Obama and McCain. We expected and found that both explicit and—in a final‐entry regression position—implicit perceptions of these traits related to voters' overall candidate attitudes and intended vote choice and that they were connected significantly more strongly for our sample of self‐described Republicans than Democrats. Results illuminate these partisan differences and raise questions about their implications for U.S. presidential politics in years to come.     

An Experimental Investigation of Election Promises

We analyze the effect of election promises on electoral behavior in a laboratory experiment. In the experiment, politicians can make nonbinding election promises about how to split an endowment between themselves and the group. We find that promises affect both voting and voter beliefs about how much the politician will contribute to the public fund. The relationship is inverted U‐shaped with decreasing credibility of higher promises. Contributions of politicians are correlated with their promises in a similar pattern. The election promises are generally credible unless particularly high. Politicians keep promises more often if a reelection is possible and if the politician came into power by vote rather than by random draw. Voters reward high contributions in the previous period and punish promise breaking even after controlling for the contribution in the previous period or voters' beliefs about future contributions. By controlling for voters' beliefs, we distinguish retrospective from prospective voting. Our results suggest that voters both use promises for prospective voting and retrospectively punish broken promises.     

Following the Leader? Mormon Voting on Ballot Propositions

Why did Utah voters—most of whom are Mormons—vote in favor of repealing Prohibition in 1933, and against a modest relaxation of Utah's liquor laws in 1968? In answering this question, we illuminate some important facets of the political behavior of members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter‐day Saints. We hypothesize that Mormons are likely to “follow their leaders” on political questions when two conditions hold: (1) official endorsement of a position by LDS church leaders; and (2) internal agreement among those leaders. Each is necessary, but neither is sufficient alone. In 1933, only one of these two conditions held; in 1968 both did. Using ecological inference to generate estimates of individual‐level behavior of Mormon and non‐Mormon voters in Utah, we find that Mormon voters were significantly more likely to vote in accordance with the Mormon Church's official position in 1968 than in 1933. We further test our hypothesis by examining other referenda in states with a large Mormon population. We conclude with a discussion of when and how contemporary Mormon leaders get involved in political issues.     

Voting and Values: Reciprocal Effects over Time

Two studies investigated reciprocal effects of values and voting. Study 1 measured adults' basic values and core political values both before (n = 1379) and following (n = 1030) the 2006 Italian national election. Both types of values predicted voting. Voting choice influenced subsequent core political values but not basic values. The political values of free enterprise, civil liberties, equality, law and order, military intervention, and accepting immigrants changed to become more compatible with the ideology of the chosen coalition. Study 2 measured core political values before (n = 697) and following (n = 506) the 2008 Italian national election. It largely replicated the reciprocal effects of voting and political values of Study 1. In addition, it demonstrated that left‐right ideology mediated the reciprocal effects of voting and political values. Moreover, voter certainty moderated these effects. Political values predicted vote choice more weakly among undecided than decided voters, but voting choice led to more value change among undecided voters.     

Beyond de Tocqueville: The roles of vertical and horizontal individualism and conservatism in the 2004 U.S. presidential election

Individualism is a fundamental value to U.S. culture and democracy. We differentiate the horizontal from vertical dimension of individualism to predict voting in the 2004 presidential election. Horizontal individualism (HI) values equality and uniqueness, whereas vertical individualism (VI) values competition and achievement. In line with the value-expressive function of attitudes and voter–politician congruency principles, we show how and when HI and VI affect voters' attitudes and voting. A pilot study revealed that VI correlated with vote; those who scored higher on VI were more likely to vote for Bush. Study 1 replicated these findings with a broader sample and a regression approach. The influence of individualism was less predictive than VI in both studies. In Study 2, we proposed that the effect of VI and HI values on voting decisions is mediated by political conservatism, which in turn predicts voters' trait assessment of candidates and voting decision. Path analysis of the data from a national survey supported our expectation among respondents with high political involvement, the context in which value-expressive attitudes are more pronounced. Taken together, these studies advance our theoretical understanding of HI, VI, and individualism, as well as the process underlying the effect of values on decisions.