A Reverse Outcome Bias: The Influence of Multiple Reference Points on the Evaluation of Outcomes and Decisions

Two experiments examined the influence of multiple reference points on the evaluation of outcomes and decisions that lead to those outcomes. Norm theory is applied as a conceptual framework for understanding the conditions under which alternative norms may be evoked by the decision context and how they are subsequently used as reference points in the evaluation process. Of primary interest, in these studies, was how an outcome is evaluated when two reference points, the status quo and an evoked alternative, provide conflicting information about the "goodness" of the outcome (the outcome is good from the perspective of one reference point and bad from the perspective of the other). A gambling paradigm, based on regret theory, is employed to address these questions. We find that an alternative outcome is more likely to be evoked as a reference point when: (1) it is certain that another choice would have led to the alternative outcome; (2) a social comparison other receives the alternative outcome; and (3) the alternative outcome is in a different evaluative domain than the outcome received (i.e., is negative when the outcome received is positive). When these conditions hold, and the alternative outcome is used as a reference point for evaluation, the evaluations which result are quite counterintuitive: winners are rated as more regretful over their choices than losers are considered to be less satisfied with their outcomes than losers, and are rated as having made poorer quality decision than losers, who made the same choice! The latter finding represents a complete reversal of the outcome bias often observed in judgments of decisions made under uncertainty.     

Attribute Framing and Goal Framing Effects in Health Decisions

Levin, Schneider, and Gaeth (LSG, 1998) have distinguished among three types of framing—risky choice, attribute, and goal framing—to reconcile conflicting findings in the literature. In the research reported here, we focus on attribute and goal framing. LSG propose that positive frames should be more effective than negative frames in the context of attribute framing, and negative frames should be more effective than positive frames in the context of goal framing. We test this framework by manipulating frame valence (positive vs negative) and frame type (attribute vs goal) in a unified context with common procedures. We also argue that the nature of effects in a goal-framing context may depend on the extent to which the research topic has “intrinsic self-relevance” to the population. In the context of medical decision making, we operationalize low intrinsic self-relevance by using student subjects and high intrinsic self-relevance by using patients. As expected, we find complete support for the LSG framework under low intrinsic self-relevance and modified support for the LSG framework under high intrinsic self-relevance. Overall, our research appears to confirm and extend the LSG framework.     

Reference Points and Omission Bias

Subjects were asked to evaluate the choice of options leading to known outcomes, or to say how they would feel about a chance outcome, in hypothetical decisions. We independently manipulated the value of the status quo and the assignment of the better or worse outcome to an act or an omission. Acts leading to the worse outcome were always considered worse than omissions leading to the worse outcome. This act-omission difference was reduced or reversed for the better outcome. Most experiments showed an overall bias toward omissions (combining better and worse). Little evidence was found for greater omission bias for losses relative to the status quo than for gains. A bias toward maintaining the status quo itself was found, however, independently of omission bias. Most of the results can be explained by norm theory and by loss aversion, but other possible accounts are inconsistent with the results.     

Bias in Favor of the Status Quo

People favor the existing and longstanding states of the world. Rational explanations for status quo maintenance are complemented by a number of non‐rational mechanisms; loss aversion, regret avoidance, repeated exposure, and rationalization create a preference for existing states. We show that the status quo also benefits from a simple assumption of goodness due to mere existence and longevity; people treat existence as a prima facie case for goodness, aesthetic and ethical Longevity increases this preference. These biases operate heuristically, forming barriers to cognitive and social change.     

Double Reference Points: the Effects of Social and Financial Reference Points on Decisions Under Risk

The existing literature is inconsistent about how social comparison affects risk attitudes. We propose a framework where the total utility is composed of the social and financial utilities. The financial utility is consistent with prospect theory (i.e., an S‐shaped utility function with a financial reference point), whereas the social utility is affected by both social and financial reference points. Therefore, social risk attitudes are determined by interaction between gains/losses in both social and financial contexts. On the basis of safety‐first principle, we propose that when experiencing financial gains, individuals tend to seek upside potential and take social risks (i.e., a convex social utility function). In contrast, when facing financial losses, people would be more risk seeking in social gains but more risk averse in social losses to maximize security (i.e., an inverse S‐shaped utility function). We also propose that the relative importance of financial and social utilities depends on the saliency of the reference points and size of stakes. Studies 1 and 2 showed that individuals were risk seeking in both social gains and losses with social reference points alone. Studies 3 and 4 demonstrated that when both financial and social reference points were salient, participants were risk averse in both social gains and losses when facing financial gains, but risk seeking in social gains and risk averse in social losses when facing financial losses. The hypotheses derived from the theoretical framework were in general supported by our experiments. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Illusion of Double‐Discount: Using Reference Points in Promotion Framing

Double‐discount is an effective format for promoting purchase decisions. However, extant literature has overlooked how temporal order of discounts applied affects consumers’ purchase decisions. In this paper, we show that the sequence of discount magnitude (e.g., 10% followed by 40% vs. 40% followed by 10%) leads to biases in consumer judgment and influences the perceived appeal and purchase intention of the deal. We term this the double‐discount sequence effect. Using four experiments, we showed that double‐discount in an ascending sequence (e.g., taking 10% off, then an additional 40% off) is preferable over that in a descending sequence. We also found that discount application sequence—but not the presentation order—matters to consumers. Consumers anchor on the first discount they encounter and evaluate the second discount with respect to this first one.     

国际卫生保健筹资模式的特点与评价

目前 ,卫生保健筹资已成为世界各国共同关注的问题。卫生保健筹资是指卫生保健费用的筹集、分配与利用 ,它从一个侧面反映了一个国家的文化、经济和政治特征 ,体现了每一个国家及其政府是如何解决将稀有的卫生资源配置到全体居民中去这样的难题的。从目前各国卫生保健筹资的模式来看 ,都在通过不同的方式和渠道来筹集卫生资源 ,以解决居民个人和社会所承担的医疗服务费用的风险。就卫生保健服务的性质来看 ,可以从政府、雇主、或个人等三方面来筹集资金 ,形成社会健康保险基金。其筹资渠道 ,可以通过国家税收、薪金税、或者商业保险等形式来…     

安于现状偏差的心理机制、影响因素及应用启示

安于现状偏差是指个体在决策时,倾向于不作为、维持当前或者以前的决策的一种现象。安于现状偏差包括内源的安于现状偏差与外源的安于现状偏差。目前研究者对这一现象的解释主要有两种:损失规避与后悔理论。安于现状偏差的影响因素主要包括备择项的数目、决策者的情绪以及认知与动机特征等。安于现状偏差有利于认识日常决策行为,而且在销售、管理与公共政策等实践领域有着重要的研究价值。未来的研究则需要从安于现状偏差与其他决策现象之间的关系,安于现状偏差的产生根源及其应用研究的拓展等方面来进一步探讨。     

社区卫生服务在医疗体制改革中的作用和地位—英国的经验与教训

社区卫生服务通过六位一体的服务可以合理疏导医疗服务需求,解决医疗服务的公平性和合理控制医疗费用增长过快,在医疗体制改革中扮演着制约医院服务的重要角色。没有社区卫生服务组织和全科医生的积极参与和强有力的制约,医疗市场很难形成有效的竞争,医疗体制改革的初衷就很难实现。英国在该方面的经验与教训,足以引起起我们的关注与警惕,结合中国国情来借鉴,渴望我国在该方面的发展更趋稳定和合理。     

平等之后:一些关于医疗保健筹资的批判性反思

一系列复杂的思想意识、财政、社会和道德的危机正威胁着西欧和美国医疗保健筹资的可持续性.本文致力于罗尔斯原初境况的解释策略,以期论证一个根本上不同与约翰·罗尔斯的道德观,以及不同于驱动当代西方社会福利国家包含医疗保健提供在内的道德和政治承诺的道德观.     

Health Message Framing: Moderators,Mediators, and Mysteries

Health message framing is an important aspect of health communication. Over the past 20 years, researchers have sought to identify the contexts in which gain‐framed and loss‐framed health messages are most likely to motivate healthy behavior. Two major approaches have emerged: One approach focusing on matching the frame of the message to how people perceive the risks and uncertainties of the advocated health behavior and the other approach focusing on matching the frame of the message to the motivational orientation of the recipient. In this review, we describe these two major approaches to health message framing, identify the most likely psychological mediators that explain why these approaches motivate behavior, suggest a way to integrate these two approaches, and outline several key future directions for both basic and applied research in health message framing.     

平等之后:一些关于医疗保健筹资的批判性反思

一系列复杂的思想意识、财政、社会和道德的危机正威胁着西欧和美国医疗保健筹资的可持续性。本文致力于罗尔斯原初境况的解释策略,以期论证一个根本上不同与约翰.罗尔斯的道德观,以及不同于驱动当代西方社会福利国家包含医疗保健提供在内的道德和政治承诺的道德观。     

公共卫生应急管理地方立法的现状、问题及完善路径

地方立法具有针对性、实效性和创造性等优势,是实现区域治理能力现代化的主力军。通过统计可知,我国多地公共卫生应急管理地方立法空白,且存在年久失修、可操作性差、重复立法等缺陷。除借鉴北京、上海等地新晋立法的优秀经验外,可以通过追求“以人民健康为中心”的价值路径,选择适宜立法形式、吸收地方法治实践成果、遵循地方特色立法原则、促进公众参与立法工作的宏观路径,以及确立恰当的名称体例、创新章节架构与内容、实现科技管理与人文精神并进、积极开创应急管理立法新思路的微观路径来完善公共卫生应急管理地方立法。

     

Multiple Framing: Verbal,Facial, and Vocal Cues in Risky Choice

Verbal framing effects have been widely studied, but little is known about how people react to multiple framing cues in risk communication, where verbal messages are often accompanied by facial and vocal cues. We examined joint and differential effects of verbal, facial, and vocal framing on risk preference in hypothetical monetary and life–death situations. In the multiple framing condition with the factorial design (2 verbal frames × 2 vocal tones × 4 basic facial expressions × 2 task domains), each scenario was presented auditorily with a written message on a photo of the messenger's face. Compared with verbal framing effects resulting in preference reversal, multiple frames made risky choice more consistent and shifted risk preference without reversal. Moreover, a positive tone of voice increased risk‐seeking preference in women. When the valence of facial and vocal cues was incongruent with verbal frame, verbal framing effects were significant. In contrast, when the affect cues were congruent with verbal frame, framing effects disappeared. These results suggest that verbal framing is given higher priority when other affect cues are incongruent. Further analysis revealed that participants were more risk‐averse when positive affect cues (positive tone or facial expressions) were congruently paired with a positive verbal frame whereas participants were more risk‐seeking when positive affect cues were incongruent with the verbal frame. In contrast, for negative affect cues, congruency promoted risk‐seeking tendency whereas incongruency increased risk‐aversion. Overall, the results show that facial and vocal cues interact with verbal framing and significantly affect risk communication. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Psychosocial Predictors of Health Status and Health Care Costs among People with Fibromyalgia

The purpose of the present study was to examine the effects of psychosocial characteristics on health status and the relationship between health status and health care use and costs in a group of people with fibromyalgia (FMS) over a 1-year period. The participants were 600 members of a large health maintenance organization. Demographic characteristics (age, education, employment status, ethnicity and income), need variables (comorbid conditions and baseline health status), and psychosocial variables (self-efficacy, helplessness, coping, and depression) were examined. Better health status at baseline, use of emotion-focused coping, and higher self-efficacy predicted better health status the following year. Higher health care use at baseline, being Caucasian, being older, and having more co-morbid conditions predicted higher health care use at 1 year. Only health care costs at baseline predicted health care costs the following year. Our results indicate that health care use and cost tend to be stable. Intense interventions focused on changing patterns of health care use and methods for coping with the change need to be developed and tested.     

Sex and Race Bias in Employment Decisions: Black Women Considered

The purpose of this investigation was to explore sex and race discrimination in employment at the managerial level, with special focus on Black women.     

Powerless Men and Agentic Women: Gender Bias in Hiring Decisions

Sex Roles - We examined male power-roles as a potential moderator of gender bias in hiring decisions. Drawing from previous work on perceptions of agentic women and precarious manhood theory, we...