Do Conditional Hypotheses Target Rare Events?

When testing hypotheses, rare or unexpected observations are normatively more informative than common observations, and recent studies have shown that participants' behavior reflects this principle. Research has also shown that, when asked to test conditional hypotheses (“If X, then Y”) that are abstract or unfamiliar, participants overwhelmingly consider a supporting observation mentioned in the hypothesis (X&Y) to be more informative than a supporting observation not mentioned (XY). These two empirical findings would mesh well if conditional hypotheses tend to be phrased in terms of rare, rather than common, events. Six experiments are reported indicating that people do have a tendency—often a very strong one—to phrase conditional hypotheses in terms of rare events. Thus, observations mentioned in conditional hypotheses might generally be considered highly informative because they usually are highly informative.     

Lakatos’s Challenge? Auxiliary Hypotheses and Non-Monotonous Inference

Summary  Gerhard Schurz [2001, Journal for General Philosophy of Science, 32, 65–107] has proposed to reconstruct auxiliary hypothesis addition, e.g., postulation of Neptune to immunize Newtonian mechanics, with concepts from non-monotonous inference to avoid the retention of false predictions that are among the consequence-set of the deductive model. However, the non-monotonous reconstruction retains the observational premise that is indeed rejected in the deductive model. Hence, his proposal fails to do justice to Lakatos’ core-belt model, therefore fails to meet what Schurz coined “Lakatos’ challenge”. It is argued that Lakatos’s distinction between core and belt of a research program is not mapable onto premise-set and consequence-set and that Schurz’s understanding of a ceteris paribus clause as a transfinite list of (absent) interfering factors is problematic. I propose a simple reading of Lakatos’s use of the term ceteris paribus clause and motivate why the term hypothesis addition, despite not being interpretable literally, came to be entrenched.

It is not that we propose a theory and Nature may shout NO; rather we propose a maze of theories and Nature may shout INCONSISTENT. Lakatos (1978, p. 45)

     

Middle-School Students’ Reasoning About Alternative Hypotheses in a Scaffolded,Software-Based Inquiry Investigation

The examination of alternative hypotheses can initiate students into scientific practices and equip them with scientific literacy skills that will help them participate in ongoing debates involving complex socio-scientific problems. Hypothesis testing, in which the examination of alternative hypotheses is situated, has received much attention in the literature. However, the topic of alternative hypotheses has not been examined as extensively in scaffolded data-rich instructional interventions. This article contributes to that body of knowledge by reporting on middle-school students’ inquiry practices as they relate to considering alternative hypotheses of their data. Specifically, the article reports a multiple-case study examining six pairs’ reasoning as they try to solve a data-rich, scientific problem, scaffolded by the software investigation, the task setup, and the teacher. The students’ generation and testing of alternative hypotheses was examined through students’ discourse, actions, inquiry products, and interactions with their teacher and peers. Pre–post assessment analyses showed statistically significant learning gains while the analyses of the students’ inquiry discourse and actions indicated that the scaffolding contributed to students’ inquiry. However, several epistemological problems surfaced relating to students’ perception of the usefulness of examining and communicating alternative explanations. These findings indicate the importance of epistemologically targeted discourse alongside guided inquiry experiences, and underline the need for further examination of appropriate scaffolding to support students’ scientific reasoning processes.     

In Search of a Neuronal Signature of Consciousness – Facts,Hypotheses and Proposals

Evolution leads to more and more complex structures, e.g., molecules, cells and organisms. By means of such structures elementary dynamic bio-electrical fields originate in single cells. They further develop into neurons with neuronal fields, and these combine and integrate in brains into global neuro-electrical fields (NEF) as a medium for the fast representation of outer stimuli. The present hypothesis proposes a specific state of the global NEF in brains as the signature of consciousness. This NEF changes periodically between two states, a de- and a hyperpolarized brain state, and these in turn are paralleled intimately by transitions between consciousness and unconsciousness. In the hyperpolarized state the elementary neuronal fields are enslaved and synchronized by strong oscillations, and under these conditions the NEF is of low information capacity. In the depolarized state, however, the elementary fields are freed to self-organize and superimpose into an integrated NEF rich in information. In this condition the NEF acquires a qualitatively new state variable: consciousness. This new variable is no longer physically measurable; it can only be perceived by introspection.     

Could polyunsaturated Fatty acids deficiency explain some dysfunctions found in ADHD? Hypotheses from animal research

Objectives: The objective is to evaluate possible mechanisms explaining the link between polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) deficiencies and ADHD, based on findings from animal research. Method: The authors consulted peer-reviewed publications from the last 10 years (Medline and resulting reference lists). Results: PUFA deficiency in rodents results in behavioral changes (increased motor activity and decreased learning abilities) and dysregulations of monoamine neurotransmission. Behavioral improvement following a PUFA recovery diet is observed, but recovery of brain monoamine dysregulation is not fully demonstrated. Anti-inflammatory processes could damage neural membranes, but the direct link with ADHD model is not documented. Synaptic growth and neurogenesis impairment could account for working memory dysregulations, but research is at its early start. Conclusion: Induced PUFA deficiencies in animals show several noteworthy similarities with brain dysregulations seen in ADHD human children. However, the mechanisms of partial recovery after PUFA supplementation are not fully understood, and rigorous clinical trials have yet to show PUFA supplementation is an effective complementary treatment for ADHD.     

Judging the Probability of Hypotheses Versus the Impact of Evidence: Which Form of Inductive Inference Is More Accurate and Time‐Consistent?

Inductive reasoning requires exploiting links between evidence and hypotheses. This can be done focusing either on the posterior probability of the hypothesis when updated on the new evidence or on the impact of the new evidence on the credibility of the hypothesis. But are these two cognitive representations equally reliable? This study investigates this question by comparing probability and impact judgments on the same experimental materials. The results indicate that impact judgments are more consistent in time and more accurate than probability judgments. Impact judgments also predict the direction of errors in probability judgments. These findings suggest that human inductive reasoning relies more on estimating evidential impact than on posterior probability.     

Generating Hypotheses After 14 Years of Marital Followup; Or,How Should One Speculate? A Reply to DeKay,Greeno, and Houck*

Gottman and Levenson (2002) for the purpose of post hoc speculation, developed a number of ordinary least squares regressions to model the length of marriage of divorcing couples in a 14-year longitudinal study. We believe that our analyses are appropriate for our purpose. We do not agree with DeKay, Greeno, and Houck (2002) that a duration-model approach would have been more appropriate, and instead argue that the analyses used are more powerful and generate more interesting speculations. When speculating, one makes an important contribution just by being interesting, not necessarily by being right. The purpose of post hoc speculation is to generate discussion, and we are pleased that even at the outset we have accomplished this goal. In this reply to DeKay et al., we argue that the two-process model for earlier versus later divorcing that we propose is both interesting and clinically useful.     

Temporal code constants--a link between psychology and physiology in research of cognitive processes? Hypotheses and considerations of quantum structures in alpha activity of the brain]

Temporal code invariants as possible links between psychological and physiological characteristics of cognition: a tentative time quantum approach. Relationships between alpha activity and short-term memory performance are discussed referring to an approach suggested by Lebedev and Lutzky (1973). These authors suggest a secondary relationship in considering processing as well as storing of information as a result of the superposition of oscillatory processes which differ from one another an elementary period (relative refractoriness) specific to individuals. Some specifications of scan rate and STM span suggested by the authors seem to be untenable for empirical and logical reasons. Alternative explanations are proposed referring to the time quantum model (TQM) by Geissler (1985, 1987, 1990, 1991). Straight forward expansions of this model lead to the hypothesis of an "alpha band" consisting of 9 discrete frequencies. Predictions on scanning rhythms can be derived from this via the assumption that these represent segmentations caused by pairwise resonance. A modification of the Lebedev-Lutzky assumption on spans is proposed assuming an optimum code for stored information.