Sensitivity analysis with interdependent criteria for multicriteria decision making: The case of soil pollution treatment

This paper is focused on interdependences between criteria in multicriteria decision analyses. Such interdependences are usually ignored in sensitivity analyses. After a discussion on the nature of interdependences, methods are presented to deal with interdependences in the context of Monte Carlo experiments. These methods are applied in the context of soil pollution treatment alternatives. It is shown that ignoring interdependences may have a distorting effect on the results of sensitivity analysis on rankings of alternatives.     

The contributions of multi‐criteria decision making to the development of decision support systems subspecialties: an empirical investigation

This study focuses on examining the structure of decision support systems (DSS) research, with a particular emphasis on assessing the contributions of multi‐criteria decision making (MCDM) to the development of each of the DSS subspecialty areas. This study traces how concepts and findings by researchers in the MCDM area have been picked up by DSS researchers to be applied, extended and refined in the development of DSS research subspecialties. In doing so, factor analysis is applied to an author cocitation frequency matrix derived from a large database file of comprehensive DSS literature. This study concludes that researchers in the MCDM area have made crucial contributions to the development of DSS research subspecialties. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An evolutionary approach to support decision making with linear decision models

In this paper we consider decision problems that can be described as linear decision models. These models have been traditionally solved using linear programming, fuzzy linear programming, multiple-objective linear programming or ‘what-if’ analysis. Using these approaches, one encounters a number of difficulties. We propose an ‘evolutionary approach’ to overcome these difficulties. In the proposed approach the decision maker does not have to precisely specify the model (i.e. the objective functions, the RHS values, etc.) at the beginning of the solution procedure. In fact, the model evolves as the solution procedure proceeds.     

Behavior analysis and decision making

Behavior analysts have developed powerful methodologies to assess central phenomena in areas that have been dominated by cognitive psychologists. Advances in instructional control, stimulus equivalence, choice, rule-governed behavior, matching to sample, and verbal behavior are some of the tools that have been developed in the experimental analysis of behavior. Although the article focuses on the experimental analysis of reasoning, this is but one of the areas in which behavior analysts should have a greater impact on contemporary psychology.     

An exploration of values in ethical consumer decision making

Consumer concern for ethical issues has been well documented across much of the developed world. Research on values is also prominent in the literature. Neglected in consumer behaviour is an understanding of the pertinence of particular values in ethical decision making contexts. This paper outlines the results of qualitative research, which explores those values pertinent to ethical consumers in decision making and the nature of their influence in grocery consumption contexts. A questionnaire was used to ascertain the dominance and nature of values influencing consumer decision making in this context.     

An investigation of the role of scale values in the DS/AHP method of multi‐criteria decision making

DS/AHP is a method of multi‐criteria decision making based on the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence and the analytic hierarchy process. Central to the utilization of DS/AHP is the composing of preference judgements on identified groups of decision alternatives (DA) across a number of criteria against all the DA present in the problem in question. This paper exposits a series of results whose objectives are to aid in the development of an effective set of preference scale values for use within DS/AHP. These results relate directly to the concomitant level of ignorance (uncertainty) with the judgements made on a single criterion. Two particular directions of investigation are undertaken, firstly in determining the necessary number of scale values available and secondly finding the necessary differences between scale values, dependent on whether an arithmetic or geometric progression is the basis for the scale values. Through an example, the implications and utilization of these results within DS/AHP are illustrated. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic decision making: a comparison of approaches

This paper is concerned with a specific type of problem, namely dynamic decisions, for which most techniques fail to provide adequate solutions. Here, we present two of the most promising optimization techniques, partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) and dynamic decision networks (DDN), while arguing which is the most suitable for this problem domain. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The decision tree polytope and its application to sequential decision problems

This paper describes a new mathematical programming approach to sequential decision problems that have an underlying decision tree structure. The approach, based upon a characterization of strategies as extreme points of a 0–1 polytope called the ‘decision tree polytope’, is particularly suited to the direct examination of risk-return and other tradeoffs amongst strategies. However, it can also be used for conventional utility maximization if a utility function is available. Further, the approach requires no algorithmic development—it can be implemented using commercially available algebraic modeling software and can solve large problems. A related, and already known, approach can be used for some more general Markov decision problems. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mediation analysis and categorical variables: The final frontier

Many scholars are interested in understanding the process by which an independent variable affects a dependent variable, perhaps in part directly and perhaps in part indirectly, occurring through the activation of a mediator. Researchers are facile at testing for mediation when all the variables are continuous, but a definitive answer had been lacking heretofore as to how to analyze the data when the mediator or dependent variable is categorical. This paper describes the problems that arise as well as the potential solutions. In the end, a solution is recommended that is both optimal in its statistical qualities as well as practical and easily implemented: compute z_Mediation.     

Improving an optimization‐based framework for sensitivity analysis in multi‐criteria decision‐making

The framework for sensitivity analysis in discrete multi‐criteria decision analysis developed by Rios Insua and French allows simultaneous variation of all parameters and applies to many paradigms for decision analysis. However, its computational load may inhibit use, particularly in the context of a decision conference where results are required in near real time. In order to improve on the current algorithm and its implementation, we investigate, on the one hand, an opportunistic approach aimed at reducing the number of optimization problems solved in the original framework and, on the other, an alternative framework based on distance analysis. Computational results on linear and bilinear models are reported. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An application of a dual-process approach to decision making in social dilemmas

This study compared psychological and behavioral responses in a take-some social dilemma with those in a give-some situation and suggested an explanation in terms of a dual process model. Participants facing the take-some dilemma exhibited a higher level of cooperation than those facing the give-some dilemma only in their first decision trial, and this effect was independent of our experimental manipulation of the information processing mode. Furthermore, once an experiential mode was induced, participants spent less time and experienced less conflict when making decisions in the take-some dilemma than in the give-some situations. The findings indicate that in social dilemmas the information processing mode has a stronger effect on psychological responses than on behavioral responses.     

The choice of constraints in correspondence analysis

A discussion of alternative constraint systems has been lacking in the literature on correspondence analysis and related techniques. This paper reiterates earlier results that an explicit choice of constraints has to be made which can have important effects on the resulting scores. The paper also presents new results on dealing with missing data and probabilistic category assignment.I am most grateful to the following for their helpful comments. Arto Demirjian, Michael Greenacre, Michael Healy, Shizuhiko Nishisato, Roderick Mcdonald, and several anonymous referees.     

Reduction of pairwise comparisons in decision making via a duality approach

Although pairwise comparisons have been seen by many as an effective and intuitive way for eliciting qualitative data for multi‐criteria decision making problems, a major drawback is that the number of the required comparisons increases quadratically with the number of the entities to be compared. Thus, often even data for medium size decision problems may be impractical to be elicited via pairwise comparisons. The more the comparisons are, the higher is the likelihood that the decision maker will introduce erroneous data. This paper introduces a dual formulation to a given multi‐criteria decision making problem, which can significantly alleviate the previous problems. Some theoretical results establish that this is possible when the number of alternatives is greater than the number of decision criteria plus one. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the application of J.M. Keynes's approach to decision making

It is shown that J. M. Keynes was the originator of what is called a weighted monetary value (WMV) approach to decision making under uncertainty and risk as opposed to either the expected monetary value (EMV) or subjective expected utility (SEU) approaches.     

The impact of task complexity on information use in multi-attribute decision making

This study presents a process analysis of multi-attribute decision making. The decision problems concerned the selection of the most suitable candidate for a job opening. The problems varied in terms of complexity, i.e. the number of candidates and the number of attributes used to describe these alternatives. Results show that with an increasing number of alternatives, subjects (N = 48) used fewer attributes for the evaluation of alternatives, and made, on average, less references to the alternatives. The type of judgment most often used was absolute dimensional (comparison of an attribute to an absolute standard) and was used more often at the beginning than toward the end of the decision process. Overall, judgments were predominantly positive. The percentage of positive judgments decreased with increasing complexity, and toward the end of the decision process. Significantly more judgments, particularly positive ones, concerned the finally chosen alternative as compared to the rest of the alternatives. Finally, analysis of subjects' usage of decision rules revealed that increasing the number of alternatives resulted in an increasing use of elimination strategies. Implications of these findings for the design of decision aids will be discussed.     

A neural cognitive model of argumentation with application to legal inference and decision making

Formal models of argumentation have been investigated in several areas, from multi-agent systems and artificial intelligence (AI) to decision making, philosophy and law. In artificial intelligence, logic-based models have been the standard for the representation of argumentative reasoning. More recently, the standard logic-based models have been shown equivalent to standard connectionist models. This has created a new line of research where (i) neural networks can be used as a parallel computational model for argumentation and (ii) neural networks can be used to combine argumentation, quantitative reasoning and statistical learning. At the same time, non-standard logic models of argumentation started to emerge. In this paper, we propose a connectionist cognitive model of argumentation that accounts for both standard and non-standard forms of argumentation. The model is shown to be an adequate framework for dealing with standard and non-standard argumentation, including joint-attacks, argument support, ordered attacks, disjunctive attacks, meta-level attacks, self-defeating attacks, argument accrual and uncertainty. We show that the neural cognitive approach offers an adequate way of modelling all of these different aspects of argumentation. We have applied the framework to the modelling of a public prosecution charging decision as part of a real legal decision making case study containing many of the above aspects of argumentation. The results show that the model can be a useful tool in the analysis of legal decision making, including the analysis of what-if questions and the analysis of alternative conclusions. The approach opens up two new perspectives in the short-term: the use of neural networks for computing prevailing arguments efficiently through the propagation in parallel of neuronal activations, and the use of the same networks to evolve the structure of the argumentation network through learning (e.g. to learn the strength of arguments from data).     

A noniterative method of joint correspondence analysis

Correspondence analysis leads to a graphical representation of the associations between categories of the row and column variables of a contingency table. Greenacre's (1988) formulation of joint correspondence analysis is a multivariate extension which finds the optimal joint display of contingency tables between all pairs of variables in a set. Greenacre presented a discrepancy function and an alternating least squares algorithm for its minimization. Boik (1996) presented an alternative algorithm, also of the alternating least squares type, for minimizing the same discrepancy function. In this paper, a noniterative procedure, not based on the minimization of any discrepancy function, is described.     

The principle of additivity and its relation to clinical decision making

Clients (N = 178) with varying degrees of organic indicators were administered a psychological battery including the Memory for Designs Test (MFD; Graham & Kendall, 1960) to assess the extent to which joint presence of organic indicators affected the sensitivity of the MFD in identifying organicity. Joint presence failed to add to the discriminability of the MFD, although individual instruments such as the PIAT (Arithmetic) and WAIS-R (PIQ less than VIQ) clearly discriminated across the MFD.     

Compressing movement information via principal components analysis (PCA): Contrasting outcomes from the time and frequency domains

PCA has become an increasingly used analysis technique in the movement domain to reveal patterns in data of various kinds (e.g., kinematics, kinetics, EEG, EMG) and to compress the dimension of the multivariate data set recorded. It appears that virtually all movement related PCA analyses have, however, been conducted in the time domain (PCA_t). This standard approach can be biased when there are lead-lag (phase-related) properties to the multivariate time series data. Here we show through theoretical derivation and analysis of simulated and experimental postural kinematics data sets that PCA_t and, PCA in the frequency domain (PCA_f), can lead to contrasting determinations of the dimension of a data set, with the tendency of PCA_t to overestimate the number of components. PCA_f also provides the possibility of obtaining amplitude and phase-difference spectra for each principal component that are uniquely suitable to reveal control mechanisms of the system. The bias in the PCA_t estimate of the number of components can have significant implications for the veracity of the interpretations drawn in regard to the dynamical degrees of freedom of the perceptual-motor system.     

Targets and tactics: The analysis of moment-to-moment decision making in animal combat

Even though injury and death are more common consequences of fighting among animals than once believed, they are still relatively infrequent. Modern evolutionary models of animal combat have emphasized that given the threat of retaliation, animals only escalate to more injurious fighting if the benefits outweigh the costs, and then only if threat and bluff fail to achieve the goal. Such models stress the role of communication as to whether animals decide to escalate or not. An alternative view is that failure to produce injury or death arises from the neutralization of one animal's attack by another's defense. That is, attack and defense end in a stalemate that may be misinterpreted by outside observers as an absence of injury producing behavior. As attack typically involves the biting or striking of specific body targets, movements and postures occurring during combat need to be analyzed with respect to their role in gaining or averting such contact. For example, in the combat of muroid rodents the attacker targets the lower dorsum and flanks (low threshold) or face (high threshold), whereas a defender may defensively launch counterstrikes against the attacker's face. Two combat tactics (supine defense and lateral attack) typically present in the fighting of muroid rodents are analyzed in detail to illustrate how targets constrain the movements of combatants. Such a functional analysis of combat assumes that the movements and postures performed are related to their role in the attack and defense of targets. Deviations from such a strict functional interpretation reveal some of the other factors that may constrain the combatants' behavior. For example, body morphology and the aggressiveness of the opponent are shown to be important in deciding the type of combat tactic to use and how it is performed. Finally, movements and postures that are neutral or even counterproductive for attack and defense may be revealed as communicatory. This approach provides a means of analyzing behavior during the "heat of combat" that is typically not dealt with in traditional evolutionary models. Aggr. Behav. 23:107–129, 1997.© 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.