Strength of evidence, judged probability, and choice under uncertainty

This paper traces, within subjects, the relationship between assessed strength of evidence, judgments of probability, and decisions under uncertainty. The investigation relies on the theoretical framework provided by support theory (Tversky & Koehler, 1994; Rottenstreich & Tversky, 1997), a nonextensional model of judgment under uncertainty. Fans of professional basketball (N = 50) judged the probability that each of eight teams, four divisions, and two conferences would win the National Basketball Association championship. Additionally, participants rated the relative strength of each team, judged the probability that a given team would win the championship assuming a particular pairing in the finals, priced prospects contingent on the winner of the championship, and made choices between chance prospects. The data conformed to the major tenets of support theory, and the predicted relationships between assessed strength of evidence, hypothetical support, judged probabilities, and choices under uncertainty also held quite well.     

Cultural, social, and emotional determinants of decisions under uncertainty

Two experiments examined the factors that influence Chinese and United States college students’ decisions in both a simulated investment situation and an academic situation. Participants in each experiment were confronted with a choice between (a) an alternative that could have either a very positive outcome or a very negative one and (b) an alternative that was relatively safe. The decision that others had typically made in the situation was also indicated. Participants’ decisions in both experiments were mediated by the emotional reactions they experienced in response to alternative decision outcomes. Others’ decisions had a direct impact on decisions in the investment situation, but their impact in the academic situation was mediated by their influence on participants’ anticipated emotional reactions. Cultural differences in the impact of anticipated feelings and others’ decisions were not evident in the investment situation. However, they were apparent in the academic situation, which was more similar to ones that participants were likely to encounter in daily life.     

From poor performance to success under stress: working memory, strategy selection, and mathematical problem solving under pressure

Two experiments demonstrate how individual differences in working memory (WM) impact the strategies used to solve complex math problems and how consequential testing situations alter strategy use. In Experiment 1, individuals performed multistep math problems under low- or high-pressure conditions and reported their problem-solving strategies. Under low-pressure conditions, the higher individuals' WM, the more likely they were to use computationally demanding algorithms (vs. simpler shortcuts) to solve the problems, and the more accurate their math performance. Under high-pressure conditions, higher WM individuals used simpler (and less efficacious) problem-solving strategies, and their performance accuracy suffered. Experiment 2 turned the tables by using a math task for which a simpler strategy was optimal (produced accurate performance in few problem steps). Now, under low-pressure conditions, the lower individuals' WM, the better their performance (the more likely they relied on a simple, but accurate, problem strategy). And, under pressure, higher WM individuals performed optimally by using the simpler strategies lower WM individuals employed. WM availability influences how individuals approach math problems, with the nature of the task performed and the performance environment dictating skill success or failure.     

Age-related variance in decisions under ambiguity is explained by changes in reasoning,executive functions,and decision-making under risk

Previous literature has explained older individuals’ disadvantageous decision-making under ambiguity in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) by reduced emotional warning signals preceding decisions. We argue that age-related reductions in IGT performance may also be explained by reductions in certain cognitive abilities (reasoning, executive functions). In 210 participants (18–86 years), we found that the age-related variance on IGT performance occurred only in the last 60 trials. The effect was mediated by cognitive abilities and their relation with decision-making performance under risk with explicit rules (Game of Dice Task). Thus, reductions in cognitive functions in older age may be associated with both a reduced ability to gain explicit insight into the rules of the ambiguous decision situation and with failure to choose the less risky options consequently after the rules have been understood explicitly. Previous literature may have underestimated the relevance of cognitive functions for age-related decline in decision-making performance under ambiguity.     

Cigarette smoking, urinary acidity, and nicotine excretion under natural conditions

For 40 males who smoked 20 cigarettes a day titratable acidity of the urine was significantly correlated with nicotine/cotinine excretion at several sample intervals, as was urinary pH, but not urinary acidity and daily cigarette consumption or serum COHB.     

The relationship between goals,performance, success,self-image,and involvement under different organization climates

This is an attempt to test the following causal chain of relationships: →support←goals→performance→success→self-image→involvement→future goals as hypothesized in Hall's (Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1971, 6, 50–76) model of the development of work involvement. It was further hypothesized that there would be more evidence for the existence of this “success cycle” in an organization with a climate of high support and feedback than in an organization with lower levels of support and feedback. Data were collected near the beginning and end of the school year in two primary schools and analyzed with correlations and path analysis. The hypotheses received moderate support. As expected, more evidence for the success cycle was found in the high-support school. In the high-support organization, the person's own goals correlated with success, while in the lower-support school, the person's self-image was the main correlate of success.     

Induction-, test-, and comparison-figure interactions under illusion and figural aftereffect conditions

Ganz (1966a, b) has argued that an induction figure will displace a test figure placed near it under both illusion and figural aftereffect conditions. The data from Experiments I and II show that most of the illusion produced by the figures studied by Ganz results from an interaction between the comparison and induction figures. The data from Experiment III suggest that both the test and comparison figures interact with the induction figure under figural aftereffect conditions. Although the induction-test figure interactions do not contradict Ganz’s model, the induction-comparison figure interactions cannot be explained by it. The data also suggest that researchers should be extremely cautious in drawing conclusions about the processes underlying illusions and figural aftereffects unless they are confident that there is no interaction between the induction and comparison figures.     

Enhanced expectancies benefit performance under distraction,but compromise it under stress: Exploring the OPTIMAL theory

Motor learning can benefit from practice under enhanced expectancies; that is, the belief one can generate an intended positive outcome. According to the OPTIMAL (Optimizing Performance Through Intrinsic Motivation and Attention for Learning) theory, this benefit manifests from a greater coupling between action and its external consequences, which potentially coincides with a more automatic mode of control. The aim of the study was to examine this possibility, and in so doing, understand more about the psycho-motor processes underpinning the influence of expectancies. On Day 1, novice participants practiced a dart-throwing task under enhanced (EE) (n = 11), reduced (RE) (n = 12) or no (control; CTL) (n = 12) expectancies. Enhanced and reduced expectancies were indirectly manipulated by positively reinforcing shots that landed within the large or small circle on the dartboard, respectively. On Day 2, participants transferred to a dual-task (i.e., tone-counting) or stress (i.e., social-comparative threat, false feedback) setting. While there was no evidence of improvement across practice, RE was significantly worse than CTL for the dual-task, but EE was significantly worse than RE and CTL under stress (ps < 0.05). Therefore, the ability of EE to retain performance within the dual-task, but decline under stress, suggests a more automatic mode of control was adopted. Both theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Test anxiety,emotional responding under guided imagery,and self-talk during an academic examination

Abstract

This investigation examined the assumption that phenomenological responses created by guidedimagery procedures pertinent to test anxiety are topographically similar to emotional responses experienced during an actual examination. Participants were divided on facilitating versus debilitating test anxiety and exposed to subclinical doses of stimulus-response propositions that involved test-taking, fear, and physical activity using the induction technique employed by Lang et al. (1980). Patterns of emotional responses obtained after each induction were compared to the pattern elicited immediately prior to students' final course examination as well as self-talk during the examination. Results indicated that exposure to test-related imagery elicited a pattern of emotional responding that was different than exposure to fear or action imagery but was nearly identical to emotional responses found before examinations. Negative emotional states before the examination also were associated with higher frequencies of negative self-statements during the examination. Treatment implications of these findings were explored.     

Empowerment, Defiance, and Demise: Jews and the Blood Libel Specter under Stalinism

By examining different cases of blood libels that occurred from the 1920s through the decade following Stalin’s death, this study suggests that the ritual murder accusation in the Soviet Union dwindled at first, then intensified, and eventually underwent an idiosyncratic and secular metamorphosis that culminated with the 1953 “Doctors’ Plot” accusation: the denunciation of a group of prominent and predominantly Jewish doctors for allegedly conspiring to murder Soviet leaders. While the blood libel was generally prosecuted in the interwar period, in the postwar years it was usually ignored, though perhaps indirectly encouraged. Jews—as well as local authorities—reacted in a variety of ways to allegations of ritual murder. But overall, it was the status, power, and influence that Jews held in a given city or town at the time of a concocted accusation that determined their responses to the blood libel and that shaped the legal provisions and enforcement steps taken by the party, police, and civil authorities.