Scaling of involvement in personal and global future events

Abstract.— Magnitude estimates of intensity of emotional involvement in 12 potential future events, assumed to occur at 5 alternative points of time within the next 46 years, were obtained from 75 subjects (mean age 19.1 yrs). Two types of relation between involvement and time were found, the dominant one being an exponential decrease of involvement with increasing temporal distance. The response patterns became less differentiated with increasing temporal distance. Differences in the response patterns between men and women, and between subjects differing in respect to satisfaction, activity, and optimism, are discussed.     

Unrealistic optimism about future life events: a cautionary note

A robust finding in social psychology is that people judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person, a behavior interpreted as showing that people are "unrealistically optimistic" in their judgments of risk concerning future life events. However, we demonstrate how unbiased responses can result in data patterns commonly interpreted as indicative of optimism for purely statistical reasons. Specifically, we show how extant data from unrealistic optimism studies investigating people's comparative risk judgments are plagued by the statistical consequences of sampling constraints and the response scales used, in combination with the comparative rarity of truly negative events. We conclude that the presence of such statistical artifacts raises questions over the very existence of an optimistic bias about risk and implies that to the extent that such a bias exists, we know considerably less about its magnitude, mechanisms, and moderators than previously assumed.     

Children's reasoning about the temporal order of past and future events

Four- and five-year-olds completed two sets of tasks that involved reasoning about the temporal order in which events had occurred in the past or were to occur in the future. Four-year-olds succeeded on the tasks that involved reasoning about the order of past events but not those that involved reasoning about the order of future events, whereas 5-year-olds passed both types of tasks. Individual children who failed the past-event tasks were not particularly likely to fail the more difficult future-event tasks. However, children's performance on the reasoning tasks was predictive of their performance on a task assessing their comprehension of the terms “before” and “after.” Our results suggest that there may be a developmental change over this age range in the ability to flexibly represent and reason about the before-and-after relationships between events.     

Visceral drives in retrospect: explanations about the inaccessible past

The present research demonstrates that the extent to which people appreciate the influence past visceral states have had on behavior (e.g., the influence hunger has had on food choice) depends largely on their current visceral state. Specifically, we found that when people were in a hot state (e.g., fatigued), they attributed behavior primarily to visceral influences, whereas when people were in a cold state (e.g., nonfatigued), they underestimated the influence of visceral drives and instead attributed behavior primarily to other, nonvisceral factors. This hot-cold empathy gap was observed when people made attributions about the past behavior of another person or themselves, and proved difficult to overcome, as participants could not correct for the biasing influence of their current visceral state when instructed to do so. These different attribution patterns also had consequences for people's satisfaction with their performance. Those who attributed their poor performance to visceral factors were more satisfied than those who made dispositional attributions.     

Thinking about the future early in life: The role of relational memory

The constructive episodic simulation hypothesis suggests that we imagine possible future events by flexibly recombining details of past experiences to produce novel scenarios. Here we tested this hypothesis by determining whether episodic future thinking is related to relational memory ability during the preschool years. Children (3- to 5-year-olds) were asked to remember a past event and imagine a possible future event using an adapted version of the recombination paradigm. Relational learning and inference were assessed using a task adapted from the neuroimaging literature. The results show that preschoolers were able to describe both past and possible future events; however, they produced more specific episodic details in relation to past events relative to future events. Episodic future thinking performance was correlated with performance on the relational inference task, consistent with the idea that the ability to flexibly recombine relational knowledge is critical in episodic future thinking.     

Experiencing past and future personal events: functional neuroimaging evidence on the neural bases of mental time travel

Functional MRI was used in healthy subjects to investigate the existence of common neural structures supporting re-experiencing the past and pre-experiencing the future. Past and future events evocation appears to involve highly similar patterns of brain activation including, in particular, the medial prefrontal cortex, posterior regions and the medial temporal lobes. This result seems to support the view of a common neurocognitive system, which would allow humans to mentally travel through time. Past events recollection was associated with greater amplitude of hippocampal and anterior medial prefrontal hemodynamic responses. This result is discussed in terms of the involvement of the self in the conscious experience of past and future events representations. More generally, our data provide new evidence in favour of the idea that re- and pre-experiencing past and future events may rely on similar cognitive capacities.     

Making the future memorable: The phenomenology of remembered future events

Although our ability to remember future simulations conveys an adaptive advantage, enabling us to better prepare for upcoming events, the factors influencing the memorability of future simulations are not clear. In this study, participants generated future simulations that combined specific people, places and objects from memory, and for each trial, made a series of phenomenological ratings about the event components and the simulation as a whole. Memory for simulations was later assessed using a cued-recall test. We used multilevel modelling to determine whether the phenomenological qualities of event components (familiarity, emotionality and significance) and simulations (detail, plausibility) were predictive of whether the simulation was successfully encoded and later accessible. Our results demonstrate that person familiarity, detail and plausibility were significant predictors of whether a given future simulation was encoded into memory and later accessible. These findings suggest that scaffolding future simulations with pre-existing episodic memories is the path to a memorable future.     

Gender differences in performance attributions: Students' explanations for personal success or failure

Women are often said to exhibit an externality bias in their performance attributions. To test this hypothesis, male and female college students made effort, ability, luck, and task difficulty attributions for their performance on a recent course examination. Measures of the students' affective reactions toward their performance were also obtained. Successful students, whether male or female, made internal attributions and were pleased with their performance. Stronger internal attributions were associated with more positive affective reactions for these students. Unsuccessful female students made external attributions, were displeased with their performance, and felt better when they attributed their failure to unstable factors. Unsuccessful male students were also displeased with their performance, but tended to make more internal attributions for their failure, and felt better as a result. These findings, which suggest the influence of an internality bias among men, rather than an externality bias among women, were interpreted in terms of the male sex role.     

Reconstructing the dates of personal events: Gender differences in accuracy

One commonly held stereotype is that females are more concerned with, and attentive to, dates than are males. One possible implication of this idea is that females have a more welldeveloped temporal reference schema than males, which should allow females to reconstruct the dates on which past events have occurred with more accuracy than males. This accuracy hypothesis was assessed by re-analysing the data from four studies collected in previous work on the accuracy of event dating. Analyses of two of the studies yielded evidence for more accurate female dating; analysis of a third study produced a substantial, but non-significant, trend in the predicted direction; and analysis of the fourth study yielded a small, but nonsignificant, reversal. A meta-analysis combining the results of these four studies indicated that the dating accuracy of females was superior to the dating accuracy of males. Additional analyses indicated that these differences were probably not due to differences in self-disclosure patterns.     

Imagining the future: degraded representations of future rewards and events in schizophrenia

Over the course of life, most people work toward temporally distant rewards such as university degrees or work-related promotions. In contrast, many people with schizophrenia show deficits in behavior oriented toward long-term rewards, although they function adequately when rewards are more immediately present. Moreover, when asked about possible future events, individuals with schizophrenia show foreshortened future time perspectives relative to healthy individuals. Here, we take the view that these deficits are related and can be explained by cognitive deficits. We compared the performance of participants with schizophrenia (n = 39) and healthy participants (n = 25) on tasks measuring reward discounting and future event representations. Consistent with previous research, we found that relative to healthy participants, those with schizophrenia discounted the value of future rewards more steeply. Furthermore, when asked about future events, their responses were biased toward events in the near future, relative to healthy participants' responses. Although discounting and future representations were unrelated in healthy participants, we found significant correlations across the tasks among participants with schizophrenia, as well as correlations with cognitive variables and symptoms. Further analysis showed that statistically controlling working memory eliminated group differences in task performance. Together these results suggest that the motivational deficits characteristic of schizophrenia relate to cognitive deficits affecting the ability to represent and/or evaluate distant outcomes, a finding with important implications for promoting recovery from schizophrenia.     

The role of cognitive resources in the valuation of near and far future events

People's behaviors often appear short-sighted, suggesting they overvalue the near future and undervalue the far future. In three experiments, the present research focussed on the role of cognitive resources in the valuation of near and distant future events. Experiment 1 tested a new discounting paradigm for use in the subsequent experiments. Experiments 2 and 3 used different manipulations (time pressure and a concurrent tone task) to restrict the cognitive resources of participants valuing a series of future events. In both experiments, this manipulation caused an increase in the valuation of far future events but not in the valuations of near future events. Implications of these findings for the role of cognitive resources in time discounting processes are briefly discussed.     

Memory for unique personal events: Effects of pleasantness

College students recorded unique personal events for a 3-month period. At the time of recording, they rated the pleasantness or unpleasantness of the event. Subsequent memory ratings showed no effect of type of affect (i.e., pleasant vs. unpleasant events) but a strong influence of intensity of affect. In contrast, the data for estimating the date of occurrence of events showed an effect of type of affect, with pleasant events estimated more accurately than unpleasant events. A detailed analysis of the data indicated that the effect could not be attributed to the predictability of pleasant events. A red-letter day effect was proposed as an explanation for the estimation data.     

The role of optimism and pessimism in chronic pain patients adjustment

This study analyses the relationships between patients' dispositional optimism and pessimism and the coping strategies they use. In addition, the coping strategies repercussions on adjustment to chronic pain were studied. Ninety-eight patients with heterogeneous chronic pain participated. The assessment tools were as follows: Life Orientation Test (LOT), the Vanderbilt Pain Management Inventory (VPMI), the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and the Impairment and Functioning Inventory for Chronic Pain Patients (IFI). The hypothetical model establishes positive relationships between optimism and the use of active coping strategies, whereas pessimism is related to the use of passive coping. Active coping is associated with low levels of pain, anxiety, depression and impairment and high levels of functioning. However, passive coping is related to high levels of pain, anxiety, depression and impairment and low levels of functioning. The hypothetical model was empirically tested using the LISREL 8.20 software package and the unweighted least squares method. The results support the hypotheses formulated regarding the relations among optimism, pessimism, coping and adjust of chronic pain patients. By analysing optimism among chronic pain patients, clinicians could make better predictions regarding coping and adjustment.     

Depression and pessimism for the future: biased use of statistically relevant information in predictions for self versus others

The cognitive theories of depression emphasize the role of pessimism about the future in the etiology and maintenance of depression. The present research was designed for two reasons: to provide a clear demonstration that depressed individuals' predictions of the likelihood of future outcomes are more pessimistic than those of nondepressed individuals given identical information with which to make forecasts and identical conditions for forecasting, and to test two additional hypotheses regarding possible mechanisms underlying depressives' relative pessimism in forecasting: a social-comparison and a differential attributional-style hypothesis. We used a modification of the cue-use paradigm developed by Ajzen (1977, Experiment 1) and examined depressed and nondepressed people's predictions of the likelihood of future positive and negative outcomes for themselves and for others. The results provided strong support for pessimism on the part of depressed individuals relative to nondepressed individuals in forecasts for both self and others. In addition, whereas nondepressives exhibited a self-enhancing bias in which they overestimated their probability of success and underestimated their probability of failure relative to that of similar others, depressives did not succumb to either positive or negative social comparison biases in prediction. Finally, in line with the attributional-style hypothesis, depressed-nondepressed differences in subjects' cue-use patterns were obtained, especially in forecasts for self. The findings are discussed with respect to the mechanisms underlying predictive optimism and pessimism and the possible functions and implications of these predictive biases.     

Back to the future: Temporal perspective in the explanation of events

Prospective hindsight involves generating an explanation for a future event as if it had already happened; i.e., one goes forward in time, and then looks back. In order to examine how shifts in perspective might influence people's perceptions of events, we investigated two possible factors: temporal perspective (whether an event is set in the future or past) and uncertainty (whether the event's occurrence is certain or uncertain). In the first experiment, temporal perspective showed little influence while outcome uncertainty strongly affected the nature of explanations for events. Explanations for sure events tended to be longer, to contain a higher proportion of episodic reasons, and to be expressed in past tense. Evidence from the second experiment supports the view that uncertainty mediates not the amount of time spent explaining, but rather subjects' choice of explanation type. The implications of these findings for the use of temporal perspective in decision aiding are discussed.     

The effects of Web site structure: the role of personal difference.

This study examined the effects of Web site structures in terms of advertising effectiveness- memory, attitude, and behavioral intentions. The primary research question for this study is, What type of Web site (Web ad) structure is most effective? In the pilot study, we tested the difference between two Web site structures, linear and interactive, in terms of traditional advertising effectiveness. Results from the pilot study did not support our research expectations. However, differences in terms of memory were noted between the two structures. After re-creating the Web site based on subjects' comments, in the final experiment, we examined the differences between the two structures and the moderating role of personality difference on the effects of Web site structure. The results confirm that participants' attitude, memory, and behavioral intentions were affected differently by the different Web site structures. However, some research hypotheses were not supported by the current data.     

Beliefs about stories: Parents' and therapists' explanations of childhood difficulties

Therapists and parents were given vignettes describing the behavioural and emotional difficulties of two nine-year-old children and were asked to rate the importance of a number of possible explanations for such difficulties. Broad agreement was found between parents and therapists, but also there were a number of significant differences. Parents endorsed more child centered explanations and put greater emphasis on physical and developmental factors, while therapists endorsed relationships factors and saw the beliefs of other family members as important. Therapists who were parents showed a pattern of responses that lay between those of parents and non-parent therapists.     

Beyond genetic explanations for leadership: The moderating role of the social environment

Leadership role occupancy has recently been shown to have a genetic basis. We extend prior research by examining the moderating effects of the social environment during adolescence on the genetic influences on leadership role occupancy at work. Utilizing a sample of male twins (89 pairs of identical and 54 pairs of fraternal twins, with a mean age of 36.5 years), we found that genetic influences are weaker for those reared in enriched environments (i.e., higher family socioeconomic status, higher perceived parental support, and lower perceived conflict with parents). For those twins who had relatively poorer social environments, genetic influences on leadership role occupancy are significantly greater. These results have important implications for early interventions on leadership development inside and outside organizations.